Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[Andy_Ross]

If I was trying to surrender the first thing I would do is thrown my rifle down as shown in 'The Valiant Breed,

It's a Stalingrad myth that troops were sent in to battle without weapons and had to pick them up from those that had been killed. Popularised in Enemy At The Gates.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

Expanding a little bit on the explanation of why 'attacking into the ambush' is the least bad option, a lot of the reason it is the least bad option have to do with the basic principles of an ambush.

In an ambush you want the targets in the worst place for them that they will pass through before you spring the ambush. This means if you're in the position of the force being ambushed, wherever you are is the worst places you can be. Now there might be several better or good places to be, but if the ambushing force is large enough those will almost all have opposition there to keep the ambushed in place. But that's not often the case, so the ambushing force has to pick where to put their troops.

This means the best places to be (best cover with most line of fire to the ambushed starting spot and hopefully places to fall back to) isn't going to be a random unopposed direction, but is very likely to be where the enemy forces are.

The basic premise of an ambush is to put the other force in the worst position and your own in the best. So if you're ambushed the most valuable evidence you're likely to have to hand of where is a good place to be is where the ambushers have chosen to be.

The "worst place" is also known as the "kill zone".

A general principle for anyone in an ambush is: "Move off the 'X'" (IOW get out of the kill zone). The best way to move off the 'X' may or may not be straight at the ambush, depending on a number of factors.

A couple things that can contribute to @ing an ambusher often being the best route off the 'X':

1) A well-prepared ambush will include measures to cut off or trap the most obvious routes of escape (such as w/mines)

2) If the attackers are close enough, closing with them in order to suppress is more likely to work than trying to outrun bullets.

3) It is the response that ambushers are least likely to be expecting/prepared for.

4) Ambushers sometimes situate themselves atop a physical crest of raised terrain rather than the "military crest", meaning they may have a blind spot under their very noses (What happened to the Confederates at Missionary Ridge, TN)

ETA: I just noticed the post Tyr was responding to specified a close ambush, so, ninja'd I guess?

 

[The_Animus]

Didn't see any rifles in the hands of the first three Russians. Makes it look a bit odd that they advanced into the fire of the Ukrainians. If they were trying to surrender, they should have just yelled it out and waited. Maybe panicking and badly trained.

The grenade use is interesting. Might be more effective throwing them down the length of the trench rather than over and above. But that also comes with the risk of a bad bounce. Also have to worry about how well supplied they are with them.

I was thinking the same thing. I don't think it's fake, but it was just so odd looking that it felt like it.

 

[ThatGuy11200]

Yes, are the Russian conscripts being sent to the front without rifles? or are they just untrained with their rifles? Did they throw them down or just not have any. Remember these Russians are not attacking, so they can't pick up a fallen comrade's rifle as they advance (this was a tactic in Bakhmut & of course highly mentioned in Eastern Front Russian attacks)

Since the last conscript was wearing basketball shoes, i'm assuming they don't have combat boots for the conscripts, which leads me to think aren't being issued rifles either.

If you mean the guy with the big beard, he may have been a Russian military blogger. Although, the helmet looks different, so maybe not.

 

[crescent]

If you mean the guy with the big beard, he may have been a Russian military blogger. Although, the helmet looks different, so maybe not.

[qimg]https://cdn4.telegram-cdn.org/file/XQ0qEP2r7NJrF0ODpR8IZBJU_flZBMfwOMQMFukRHFGlnbQqbZ-Yt1lvUb-5YwbIFYfmptzHASzlPzyx5kEY2r6uLhTcPK8Oi-ZIZBH3C_8ltQUB7ampr3_nEUA7HdEPcGFxwvgfgj0zkQ62fwfSHHfYTLnytqfvc8FxkyoP-RkwBuB2UgtwmwXN17RUxujUKY0G_jvdqv6y8iAWtbCmlQjXGh7JkUoHxwtqBjZATUWKrWXLnQT-ZRH5KNfueORqROTBb1YO1nQwKAMdklg1MbjbYwH5Pfkzb2d-4upgBe-Ml7zgL1fFoBlbZA8un3hIrWv7CZ0aTfi48iVQlSUREA.jpg[/qimg]

WarGonzo, a.k.a. Semyon Pegov.

Although he got injured some months back (October, he stepped on a butterfly mine) and is rumored to be missing a foot. My impression was that at most, he lost a few toes. Then again foot damage could explain why the dead guy in the trench was wearing sneakers, those might be more comfortable for a guy with a damaged foot.

...and he is known for getting close to the fighting. ...and the Russians in that trench didn't seem to expect to be attacked right then - such that a limpy war reporter with a reputation for getting close the fighting might feel it was safe enough, only to be wrong.

Wargonzo one of the more prominent Russian "milbloggers". If that's him (plausible but I'm not yet convinced), this is quite a coup.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Maybe the sneaker guy was 'Excused Boots'
He probably had a crumpled paper chit signed by the MO in his pocket.

 

[Wildy]

Didn't see any rifles in the hands of the first three Russians. Makes it look a bit odd that they advanced into the fire of the Ukrainians. If they were trying to surrender, they should have just yelled it out and waited. Maybe panicking and badly trained.

I don't know how accurate it is, but I found this on twitter. It suggests that guns are being stored in fixed locations until they're needed instead of having the troops armed all the time. If that's the case then it might explain why the Russians were advancing into the fire of the Ukrainian marines - they were heading to the caches to get arms to fight back.

 

[Steve]

I don't know how accurate it is, but I found this on twitter. It suggests that guns are being stored in fixed locations until they're needed instead of having the troops armed all the time. If that's the case then it might explain why the Russians were advancing into the fire of the Ukrainian marines - they were heading to the caches to get arms to fight back.

Probably to minimize opportunities to shoot their officers.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I don't know how accurate it is, but I found this on twitter. It suggests that guns are being stored in fixed locations until they're needed instead of having the troops armed all the time. If that's the case then it might explain why the Russians were advancing into the fire of the Ukrainian marines - they were heading to the caches to get arms to fight back.

It was hard to follow auto-translated (and presumably quite idiomatic) Russian, but the references to "field pyramids" and "orders for" sounded like it might just mean their rifles were kept stacked, as ordered.

Not that I'm suggesting that would be a good idea, but it doesn't read like it means anything sinister like taking private Conscriptovich's gun away and locking it up.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Yes, are the Russian conscripts being sent to the front without rifles? or are they just untrained with their rifles? Did they throw them down or just not have any. Remember these Russians are not attacking, so they can't pick up a fallen comrade's rifle as they advance (this was a tactic in Bakhmut & of course highly mentioned in Eastern Front Russian attacks)

Since the last conscript was wearing basketball shoes, i'm assuming they don't have combat boots for the conscripts, which leads me to think aren't being issued rifles either.

I wouldn't assume that. It's entirely plausible that Russia is having trouble supplying adequate boots or other uniform items for their mass mobilization, but I wouldn't assume that without more evidence.

Military issued kit is sometimes excellent, sometimes total crap. In the absence of strict discipline, it's pretty common for soldiers to substitute military issued kit with their own self supplied, civilian market kit that they might think is superior. This happens even with professional, well supplied soldiers assuming nobody is watching them too closely.

Nonstandard, comfortable footwear seems like the thing a soldier would self-supply if uniform discipline were lax enough.

 

[lobosrul5]

Looks as though Russia had a really really bad time in the Zaporizhia area.



According to the above video, Ukraine surrounded a village, and trapped 300 Russian soldiers. Then, before Russia could counter attack, Ukraine had dug in, leading to even more losses.

Estimated Russian losses confirm something pretty major happened.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Was listening to a podcast recently, but there's no transcript and it's paywalled so I'll just summarize the points that I found interesting.

We all know how poorly the military side of the Russian invasion has gone. Almost as a mirror, the economic war against Russia is likewise going quite poorly.

The sanctions seem to be hurting the EU far more than it's hindering Russia. Third party countries are happily buying up sanctioned Russian products and reselling them to the EU for a premium, which means Russia is still exporting while the EU is paying more for the same product.

A lot of the bans basically seem to be pretextual, with goods simply stopping in a neutral third party before making it to their final destination, magically laundered of their contraband status. That applies for exports from Russia and imports into Russia.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/5/sanctions-on-russia-may-not-be-working-we-now-know-why

There's a real question how much more the EU will tolerate. Increased costs of energy are hurting the EU economy, especially manufacturing heavy Germany. It's unclear whether their willingness to support Ukraine will survive another expensive winter. Much of Germany's famous wealth was built on cheap energy from Russia.

There could be good reasons why Chancellor Scholz’s rhetoric is more careful than that of, for example, his Green Foreign Secretary Annalena Baerbock, who “accidentally” declared a state of war between Russia and Germany. Polling shows that the German public supports Ukraine’s right to self-defence, but it also shows a strong desire to end the conflict as soon as possible. Towards the end of last month, a Forsa Poll revealed that over 80% believe that it is more important to end the war with negotiations than for Ukraine to win, with only 18% disagreeing with that statement.

https://unherd.com/thepost/german-public-support-for-ukraine-is-falling/

Russia's position may improve simply by keeping the war going and waiting for Ukraine's backers to lose their resolve.

 

[Drewbot]

If you mean the guy with the big beard, he may have been a Russian military blogger. Although, the helmet looks different, so maybe not.

[qimg]https://cdn4.telegram-cdn.org/file/XQ0qEP2r7NJrF0ODpR8IZBJU_flZBMfwOMQMFukRHFGlnbQqbZ-Yt1lvUb-5YwbIFYfmptzHASzlPzyx5kEY2r6uLhTcPK8Oi-ZIZBH3C_8ltQUB7ampr3_nEUA7HdEPcGFxwvgfgj0zkQ62fwfSHHfYTLnytqfvc8FxkyoP-RkwBuB2UgtwmwXN17RUxujUKY0G_jvdqv6y8iAWtbCmlQjXGh7JkUoHxwtqBjZATUWKrWXLnQT-ZRH5KNfueORqROTBb1YO1nQwKAMdklg1MbjbYwH5Pfkzb2d-4upgBe-Ml7zgL1fFoBlbZA8un3hIrWv7CZ0aTfi48iVQlSUREA.jpg[/qimg]

This guy seems to think he is the same person. Look at his old helmet photos.
https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1671048179549077508?s=20

 

[Mike!]

This guy seems to think he is the same person. Look at his old helmet photos.
https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1671048179549077508?s=20

I'm sure his whole point in being there was to demonstrate to the folks back home how well the war military operation is going for them, in which case, mission accomplished!

 

[dudalb]

Have you ever met one of those people who will always do the exact opposite of whatever good advice they're given is?
That's Russia.

I know, I know. It's a Russian thing. When we're about to do something stupid, we like to catalog the full extent of our stupidity for future reference.

Commander Susan Ivanova "Babylon 5".

JMS knew what he was writing about here.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Was listening to a podcast recently, but there's no transcript and it's paywalled so I'll just summarize the points that I found interesting.

We all know how poorly the military side of the Russian invasion has gone. Almost as a mirror, the economic war against Russia is likewise going quite poorly.

The sanctions seem to be hurting the EU far more than it's hindering Russia. Third party countries are happily buying up sanctioned Russian products and reselling them to the EU for a premium, which means Russia is still exporting while the EU is paying more for the same product.

A lot of the bans basically seem to be pretextual, with goods simply stopping in a neutral third party before making it to their final destination, magically laundered of their contraband status. That applies for exports from Russia and imports into Russia.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/5/sanctions-on-russia-may-not-be-working-we-now-know-why

There's a real question how much more the EU will tolerate. Increased costs of energy are hurting the EU economy, especially manufacturing heavy Germany. It's unclear whether their willingness to support Ukraine will survive another expensive winter. Much of Germany's famous wealth was built on cheap energy from Russia.



https://unherd.com/thepost/german-public-support-for-ukraine-is-falling/

Russia's position may improve simply by keeping the war going and waiting for Ukraine's backers to lose their resolve.

Firstly, I wouldn't take anything unherd prints as being accurate. Tim Montgomerie (,the sit's founder and main "brain" is the kind of person that you have to stick your head out a window if he tells you it's raining, and he's hired only people like him).

Secondly, what's the reasoning and evidence behind the podcast's conclusions, Russia's economy has visibly fallen off a cliff in the last year largely because it can no longer export oil at anything other than a loss, Europe's not buying, and it's got nothing else to export. Yes there is an issue with imports from the EU and US into Russia, but that's dummy accounts set up in foreign countries with their governments' connivance.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Firstly, I wouldn't take anything unherd prints as being accurate. Tim Montgomerie (,the sit's founder and main "brain" is the kind of person that you have to stick your head out a window if he tells you it's raining, and he's hired only people like him).

Much obliged, not familiar with this source, though I don't think it's unique in pointing out that the recession being induced by high energy prices in the EU is sapping enthusiasm for continued support of the war.

Secondly, what's the reasoning and evidence behind the podcast's conclusions, Russia's economy has visibly fallen off a cliff in the last year largely because it can no longer export oil at anything other than a loss, Europe's not buying, and it's got nothing else to export. Yes there is an issue with imports from the EU and US into Russia, but that's dummy accounts set up in foreign countries with their governments' connivance.

Do you have a source for that? Everything I'm seeing is claiming that Russia is basically exporting more or less the same oil volume as before the war, instead sending it to China, India, or other uninvolved parties rather than the EU. Russia is evading the price cap and these alternative supply lines will only become more established the longer the situation lasts. Seems the impact of the sanctions was rather short lived.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/24/ukraine-the-wests-oil-war-against-russia-is-losing-momentum.html

 

[jeremyp]

Much obliged, not familiar with this source, though I don't think it's unique in pointing out that the recession being induced by high energy prices in the EU is sapping enthusiasm for continued support of the war.



Do you have a source for that? Everything I'm seeing is claiming that Russia is basically exporting more or less the same oil volume as before the war, instead sending it to China, India, or other uninvolved parties rather than the EU. Russia is evading the price cap and these alternative supply lines will only become more established the longer the situation lasts. Seems the impact of the sanctions was rather short lived.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/24/ukraine-the-wests-oil-war-against-russia-is-losing-momentum.html

Oil is only one aspect of the sanctions.

 

[lobosrul5]

The Russian Army now faces a new enemy... cholera... brought on by themselves.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-ar...khovka-dam-flooding-destruction-1807620?amp=1

 

[lomiller]

Was listening to a podcast recently, but there's no transcript and it's paywalled so I'll just summarize the points that I found interesting.

We all know how poorly the military side of the Russian invasion has gone. Almost as a mirror, the economic war against Russia is likewise going quite poorly.

The sanctions seem to be hurting the EU far more than it's hindering Russia. Third party countries are happily buying up sanctioned Russian products and reselling them to the EU for a premium, which means Russia is still exporting while the EU is paying more for the same product.

A lot of the bans basically seem to be pretextual, with goods simply stopping in a neutral third party before making it to their final destination, magically laundered of their contraband status. That applies for exports from Russia and imports into Russia.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/5/sanctions-on-russia-may-not-be-working-we-now-know-why

There's a real question how much more the EU will tolerate. Increased costs of energy are hurting the EU economy, especially manufacturing heavy Germany. It's unclear whether their willingness to support Ukraine will survive another expensive winter. Much of Germany's famous wealth was built on cheap energy from Russia.



https://unherd.com/thepost/german-public-support-for-ukraine-is-falling/

Russia's position may improve simply by keeping the war going and waiting for Ukraine's backers to lose their resolve.

The only product of consequence Russia has to sell is oil. The strategy isn't to make it impossible for Russia to sell oil because that would have global economic consequences. Instead the goal is to make Russia sell it's oil at a deep discount so they get much less money for the oil they do sell.