theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
Especially since there's no way he's going to be able to cash in on any Ukrainian assets he may wish to hold or plan to hold at a later date.
Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7
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Especially since there's no way he's going to be able to cash in on any Ukrainian assets he may wish to hold or plan to hold at a later date.
I still think he'd be a target. It's not as though the KGB or FSB has neglected to assassinate people outside Russia.
The Great Zaganza
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i think he can easily outbid them - the reason why Wagner is so much better than the military is that they actually get paid.
Doubt
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Looking over various map related sources, it looks like there are currently 7 different locations where Ukraine is trying to advance.
Two are the ones north and south of Bakhmut, which are making progress but not very fast.
One of the south points is at Lobkove just east of the reservoir looks to be contesting a good sized area. Problem here is the they have a closed flank at the reservoir limiting their options.
War mapper shows two lines in parallel south east of Orikhiv. Have not seen any gains there yet or even a claim of territory really being contested.
The other two are near Novodarivka and Blahodatne. The first is contesting a small area. the second one is showing the largest gains so far.
None of these are huge. Trying to advance on that many positions could be a problem. If the idea is to tie them down and advance in one or two areas, that would make more sense. If they idea is to try several points and just see what happens, then they are falling back on old Russian tactics.
Two are the ones north and south of Bakhmut, which are making progress but not very fast.
One of the south points is at Lobkove just east of the reservoir looks to be contesting a good sized area. Problem here is the they have a closed flank at the reservoir limiting their options.
War mapper shows two lines in parallel south east of Orikhiv. Have not seen any gains there yet or even a claim of territory really being contested.
The other two are near Novodarivka and Blahodatne. The first is contesting a small area. the second one is showing the largest gains so far.
None of these are huge. Trying to advance on that many positions could be a problem. If the idea is to tie them down and advance in one or two areas, that would make more sense. If they idea is to try several points and just see what happens, then they are falling back on old Russian tactics.
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a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Drone attack on Tor air defence system,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSXbkaCiH00
Let's appreciate the role of the modern minstrel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSXbkaCiH00
Let's appreciate the role of the modern minstrel.
jeremyp
Philosopher
Yes, but for everybody else, it would be better if he and Wagner went to war against the Russian leadership.
quadraginta
Becoming Beth
Would Ukraine be better off if Prigozhin was running Russia? Would Russia?
Would we?
ETA: I'm not Just Asking Questions. I really have no idea, and would be interested in the opinions of those better informed than I am.
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Almost certainly not.
But he is unlikely to be able to do that. However he is a gambler, and must think that a long shot is better than the near certainty of prison and an accident in custody.
And it would not be fast, so would weaken Russian forces in Ukraine
I think everybody would be worse off if Prigozhin was running Russia. Just like he has no qualms about spending his wagnerians in human wave attacks, he would have no qualms about letting all of Russia suffer in order to show how tough he is and win the war.
He would probably also use nuclear weapons because he thinks - probably correctly - the West would not retaliate as long as it is only Ukraine that is targeted. I believe he has expressed this opinion in public before.
He would simply be a new Stalin, except that he is a real leader of men, a frontline general, who knows his business.
Flo
Illuminator
And those currently at the help know it would also mean their demise, hence the manoeuvres to defang him …
gnome
Penultimate Amazing
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I think he is correct about the West only in part--I do not think the West would retaliate with nuclear weapons. This is because they can get the job done without them. That is not good news for the aggressor.
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
I just wish the West would get the job done now, on account of the dam. It's exactly the kind of mass-destruction spoiling attack that tactical nukes were invented for. It's a war crime. It's a crime against humanity. The environmental and ecological harm probably exceeds the fallout of one or two small nukes.
ETA: As for Prigozhin, I doubt he could actually rule Russia. He almost certainly lacks the coalition ofBoyars Oligarchs needed to establish him as Tsar. Putin has the Army and the Oligarchs, plus the advantage of having inherited a functioning government. In the event of a coup, I think the government would just collapse. Prigozhin would be left with one of several rump states, each controlled by a rival faction. He'd be too busy fighting his rivals to pursue dreams of a Greater Russia.
ETA: As for Prigozhin, I doubt he could actually rule Russia. He almost certainly lacks the coalition of
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TurkeysGhost
Penultimate Amazing
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Seems odd to justify initiating nuclear exchange as a humanitarian or damage mitigation effort, considering the massively destructive response it almost certainly would provoke.
Seems most likely that Ukraine would be target #1 in any such escalation and retaliation from Russia.
Flo
Illuminator
What about the risk he manages to federate several militias and part of the army ?
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
Oh yay, another vote for letting Moscow use WMDs, because retaliating for that might encourage them to use more WMDs. Again I ask, why is it that only Moscow gets to use the threat of escalation as a deterrent to further aggression?
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
lobosrul5
Philosopher
I don't think theprestige is suggesting we fire off a nuke at this point
We're treating this as much less serious than we would've had Russia set off a low-yield nuke, yet its possible that the damage from blowing the dam is actually WORSE.
I had a convo with an engineer over the weekend and his comment was something like just as you can't be "a little pregnant", you cannot "blow a dam a little bit". They did this on purpose and intentionally. They created a humanitarian crisis to district Ukraine from their offensive. As for the drowned Russian soldiers, they were likely low value conscripts that Russia gives very little ***** about.
The response from the west is not even close to as harsh as it should be. I hope Biden says by Friday, something along the lines of "we just wanted to be really really sure that this was Russia, now that we are: ATACMS are on their way, and we'll be sending enough equipment to arm a new armored/mech battalion each month". And if not I'm all for a Congressional override.
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lobosrul5
Philosopher
Oh BTW here is a video showing how much Russia cares for their soldiers...
Warning, its at a distance but its video of executions.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...73o/russian_frontline_security_unit_executes/
Warning, its at a distance but its video of executions.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...73o/russian_frontline_security_unit_executes/
Flo
Illuminator
Sorry, English isn't my primary language - I was thinking of members of the hierarchy who disapprove of the way Putin, Shoigu et al. are mismanaging the war, and actually wish to see an escalation.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
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