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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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Myriad said:
They thought the structural resistance of the lower dam would arrest the collapse because of Newton's third law, and that it couldn't possibly collapse completely into its own footprint as long as they didn't set off demolition charges all the way down. Childlike Empress was probably advising them.
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:thumbsup: Things are somehow even worse than I thought if they're relying on CE to advise them lol
 
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steenkh said:
Several reports mention the importance of the Crimea canal, but I was of the impression that it has not delivered water to Crimea since 2014?
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Russia restored service last spring, during the first few weeks of the war. Had a big video of them blowing up the little dam that Ukraine had blocked it with, more video of the water reaching this or that portion of the canal. It was one of their louder propaganda items.
 
Oystein said:
I find interesting that, on one hand, many Western sources and media caution that there is - yet! - no solid evidence that Russia blew up the Kachovka dam, but that on the other hand no one really is out there implying that there is a significant likelihood Russia did not do it.
Contrast that with e.g. the Nord Stream sabotage, and how there is no solid evidence either was, and people are quite at odds as to how likely the involvment of this or that party is.
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It may be worth noting that there's dramatically less in the way of unknowns here than there was with Nord Stream. With Nord Stream, there was at least plausible access to the area by various parties and limited circumstantial evidence, so people were much more able to spread whichever version they preferred to spread and refutations could easily be counted as opinion or spin. With the dam, the circumstantial evidence is quite damning and there's only one plausible culprit. Ukraine or other actors are possible, but not plausible. It's irresponsible to claim 100%, of course, without solid evidence, but it's also irresponsible not to provisionally assume Russia.

lobosrul5 said:
Did Russia really not have the necessary engineering expertise to successfully pull that off? Thats a little bit hard to believe, I mean they do have a heavy industrial sector, damn, bridges, engineers etc. But maybe thats all outsourced and all those people are in <not Russia> at present?
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Russia could well have the necessary engineering expertise to pull it off. That doesn't mean that any of it was 1) there, 2) in a position to actually apply that expertise, and 3) willing to apply that expertise as intended. Any of those could be not the case after taking into account the rampant corruption, callously sending skilled support roles out as cannon fodder, rigid and chaotic leadership structure, longstanding exposure to genocidal propaganda, etc.
 
Aridas said:
Russia's War with NATO is pretty amazing, after all. Hundreds of thousands of casualties, tens of thousands of lost military vehicles, massive damage to their economy. What do they have to show for it? NATO hasn't even shown up on the battlefield.
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The commentary from the Russian media stooges is that Russia is fighting the combined might of NATO directly and winning.
 
Oystein said:
Logically, this gives us three possibilities:
  1. The Russians, in controll of this part of them dam, did it deliberately at this time
  2. The Ukrainians fielded a covert sabotage team to install the necessary tons(?) of explosives and do it deliberately
  3. Explosives previously installed (by Russians, most likely) "just in case" went off accidentally.
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For a 2a. option, we have a Ukrainian team detonating charges placed by the Russians. That is more in the possible range but also less in the plausible category.

Also, the water level behind the dam would have an impact on the explosion results. Although that gets into charge placement issues as well.
 
For what it's worth...

SBU: In intercepted phone call, Russian soldier confirms Russia blew up Kakhovka dam.

In an intercepted phone call published by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), an alleged Russian serviceman said a Russian sabotage group had destroyed the Kakhovka dam in Kherson Oblast.
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Doubt said:
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1667152804719337475/photo/1



4 more Bradley destroyed right at the same spot. All very close together.



Why they are that close is a bit odd. Spacing matters for survival. Most are facing the same direction. Did notice one Bradly has the TOW launcher raised but the vehicle is facing the opposite direction.



Photos showing the other 4 Bradleys show several of them right next to each other. It is not clear where they were attacked from. Mines could be involved here but even the mines would need to be better spaced out than this.



Drone video shows a row of trees below the bottom of the photo here. But if that is where the fire was coming from the destroyed vehicles in parallel should have been impossible because they were shielding each other from the closest trees.
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There is video of artillery fire on the vehicles from a Russian drone. Denis davydov has it.
 
Reformed Offlian said:
theprestige said:
They won't. That would have to be government agencies. Poland and Germany aren't going to send search and rescue teams into areas where Moscow is shooting at relief efforts and evacuees.
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They aren't going to do that with a ceasefire, either. You think the Russians are going to agree to a ceasefire that allows rescue personnel or engineering assets from NATO countries into theater?
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I think that they would agree to anything if they saw a short term advantage in it.

I also think that there is no way they would continue (or even start) to observe such an agreement the instant that they ceased to see such an advantage.

And I don't think that anyone in Ukraine, or any NATO allies, or anyone else who isn't severely deluded would expect them to.
 
pzkpfw said:
Another article about those losses.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/10/so-how-many-leopard-tanks-were-lost-in-ukraine/?swcfpc=1

Claims the Russians keep showing the same action, from different angles, to inflate Ukrainian losses.
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Which is honestly more suggestive of Russia having shockingly little to work with than anything else. It doesn't mean that Ukraine isn't taking other losses, of course, but that Russia's unable to film it even if they are.

It's the kind of thing that makes me hopeful that the Ukraine's advance has been far smoother than I had expected. The Tokmak direction may well be the direction with the most entrenched lines of defense and the most mines to get through. Possibly a few less mines due to Russians retreating through their own minefields, though.
 
Doubt said:
That explains the angle of attack problem. Doesn't explain why they are so close together.
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The are close together, because they were moving through minefield, lead by mine clearing vehicle. Which was hit first. Then they started to turn around and go back, some hit mines. Then you have only one option left .. stay on the path and somehow squeeze between wrecks .. which yeah, makes you a sitting duck.
What's sad is that this exact tactic was used many times at Vuhledar by Russians .. with similar results. But I guess there is no other option.
 
Dr.Sid said:
The are close together, because they were moving through minefield, lead by mine clearing vehicle. Which was hit first. Then they started to turn around and go back, some hit mines. Then you have only one option left .. stay on the path and somehow squeeze between wrecks .. which yeah, makes you a sitting duck.
What's sad is that this exact tactic was used many times at Vuhledar by Russians .. with similar results. But I guess there is no other option.
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Not really any other option, yeah. Mine clearing vehicles can only clear a path (though I question how much those were even used in Vuhledar). That ends up leaving the defenders a fairly specific target area to pound on. Further, if a vehicle gets taken out on that path, they're generally moved off to the side if possible rather than directly recovered, because, well, mines restricting potential movement. A scene like that one can fairly safely be considered to be well within expectations. The more surprising thing would be that we're seeing so very little of it actually happening. It rather suggests that Ukraine's being quite successful overall, especially when combined with seemingly official claims that they've broken through at multiple points.
 
Dr.Sid said:
The are close together, because they were moving through minefield, lead by mine clearing vehicle. Which was hit first. Then they started to turn around and go back, some hit mines. Then you have only one option left .. stay on the path and somehow squeeze between wrecks .. which yeah, makes you a sitting duck.
What's sad is that this exact tactic was used many times at Vuhledar by Russians .. with similar results. But I guess there is no other option.
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In later photos a second group of Bradleys was caught in that same spot. What you see are three of them in parallel positions to the tank. One of them is from the first group. The other two from the second group. Timing wise it is hard to imagine the artillery hitting in the right timing to kill all three of them when in parallel. Shells cannot be timed like that making it unlikely. But it isn't impossible.
 
This could get interesting:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65871232

Russia appears to have moved to take direct control of Wagner, after months of infighting between defence officials and the private military group.

Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Saturday "volunteer formations" will be asked to sign contracts directly with the ministry of defence.
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jimbob said:
Prigozhin is running out of road. I hope he realises that his only option is violence, and the sooner he tries it, the more chance of success.
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He is probably avoiding windows and upper floors of buildings if he has any brains.
 
Prigozhin can take his ball and go home - to the Central African Republic or any of the other conflict zones Wagner operates.
Carving out a kingdom for himself there would be much more lucrative and safe than trying to stay on the good side of an increasingly paranoid Putin.
 
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