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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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Dr.Sid said:
Cease fire ? With Russia ?
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Yes. Western nations and NGOs aren't going to send relief workers and equipment to an active war zone. If Ukraine wants significant outside help with the flooding, they will need a cease fire.

I suppose another option is that Biden et al. decide that destroying the dam counts as the kind of WMD escalation that would prompt them to utterly destroy the invaders. But that seems unlikely.
 
theprestige said:
I suppose another option is that Biden et al. decide that destroying the dam counts as the kind of WMD escalation that would prompt them to utterly destroy the invaders. But that seems unlikely.
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Two days later and not even a sniff of that, so...
 
theprestige said:
Yes. Western nations and NGOs aren't going to send relief workers and equipment to an active war zone. If Ukraine wants significant outside help with the flooding, they will need a cease fire.
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Not sure why you would assume that. NGOs are already sending relief workers into Ukraine.

Some NGOs, like the ICRC, pretty much exist to operate in active war zones.

ETA: More specifically, NGOs are already present and providing relief in Kherson, such as Project HOPE.
 
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lobosrul5 said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...ainian_army_reconnaissance_drone_tracks_more/

Video of about 50 Russian soldiers abandoning their trench and running. Rumors I'm seeing is the offensive is going well and Ukraine has already taken significant ground... but just rumors.
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It's hard fighting. At least two Leo II tanks have been taken out, although one has been recovered by Ukraine and can be repaired. A bunch of Bradleys lost as well.

This isn't unexpected, nor is it a sign of failure. Russia had months and months to dig in and has shown itself to often (but inconsistently) be proficient at defensive warfare.

It'll take time to grind down and push through the thickest defensive layers. It is a shorter front now than it was when the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives happened. That shorter front is staffed by more troops than Russia had back then. Those Russian soldiers are less well equipped and trained, but dug in like termites, protected by enormous amounts of land mines.

I'm not expecting rapid progress, at least not for a few weeks.
 
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crescent said:
It's hard fighting. At least two Leo II tanks have been taken out, although one has been recovered by Ukraine and can be repaired. A bunch of Bradley's lost as well.

This isn't unexpected, nor is it a sign of failure. Russia had months and months to dig in and has shown itself to often (but inconsistently) be proficient at defensive warfare.

It'll take time to grind down and push through the thickest defensive layers. It is a shorter front now than it was when the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives happened. That shorter front is staffed by more troops than Russia had back then. Those Russian soldiers are less well equipped and trained, but dug in like termites, protected by enormous amounts of land mines.

I'm not expecting rapid progress, at least not for a few weeks.
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You are likely correct. But there is some hope IMO that mass panic sets in among the Russian defenders. If that leads to gaps in the front, then it will multiply.
 
theprestige said:
Yes. Western nations and NGOs aren't going to send relief workers and equipment to an active war zone. If Ukraine wants significant outside help with the flooding, they will need a cease fire.

I suppose another option is that Biden et al. decide that destroying the dam counts as the kind of WMD escalation that would prompt them to utterly destroy the invaders. But that seems unlikely.
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Oh I totally understand how cease fire would be useful. But how would you get it from Russia ? How could you trust a single word from Russia ?
 
crescent said:
It's hard fighting. At least two Leo II tanks have been taken out, although one has been recovered by Ukraine and can be repaired. A bunch of Bradleys lost as well.

This isn't unexpected, nor is it a sign of failure. Russia had months and months to dig in and has shown itself to often (but inconsistently) be proficient at defensive warfare.

It'll take time to grind down and push through the thickest defensive layers. It is a shorter front now than it was when the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives happened. That shorter front is staffed by more troops than Russia had back then. Those Russian soldiers are less well equipped and trained, but dug in like termites, protected by enormous amounts of land mines.

I'm not expecting rapid progress, at least not for a few weeks.
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From what I have seen of how the Russians have dug in, I don't think they will hold out all that long. Still not quite convinced that this really kicked off the main offensive. But if they are using the Leopards and Bradleys, then there is a good chance that this is it.

If this is it, then I was a day off on my prediction for the start.

Newsweek article here says they used HIMARS rockets on Tokmak. Watch that area. Tokmak is critical if they plan to cut off Russians in the west.

https://www.newsweek.com/zaporizhzh...KcY9xPOLnbMtpQWi-bDQVw6pgeN9ceR3Wr-JlRIfdM1PY
 
crescent said:
It's hard fighting. At least two Leo II tanks have been taken out, although one has been recovered by Ukraine and can be repaired. A bunch of Bradleys lost as well.

This isn't unexpected, nor is it a sign of failure. Russia had months and months to dig in and has shown itself to often (but inconsistently) be proficient at defensive warfare.

It'll take time to grind down and push through the thickest defensive layers. It is a shorter front now than it was when the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives happened. That shorter front is staffed by more troops than Russia had back then. Those Russian soldiers are less well equipped and trained, but dug in like termites, protected by enormous amounts of land mines.

I'm not expecting rapid progress, at least not for a few weeks.
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Just look at how many men and how much equipment the Western Allies launched during the successful breakout from Normandy. And they had the advantage of overwhelming air superiority.
 
SpitfireIX said:
Just look at how many men and how much equipment the Western Allies launched during the successful breakout from Normandy. And they had the advantage of overwhelming air superiority.
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They also had to deal with "bocage" country. Once they cleared that it was a very rapid advance to the "Siegfried Line". The terrain of eastern Ukraine looks highly suitable to armored operations to me.
 
Reformed Offlian said:
Not sure why you would assume that. NGOs are already sending relief workers into Ukraine.

Some NGOs, like the ICRC, pretty much exist to operate in active war zones.

ETA: More specifically, NGOs are already present and providing relief in Kherson, such as Project HOPE.
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I don't see the ICRC sending a lot of rescue helicopters, earth movers, relief facilities, and people to run those things, to the Kherson region while it's actively under bombardment.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Oh I totally understand how cease fire would be useful. But how would you get it from Russia ? How could you trust a single word from Russia ?
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It's been suggested that Moscow would like to drag this war on to the point where it becomes a fait accompli for them. A cease fire would further this aim.

Reneging after foreign aid workers enter the country, and opening fire on them, would be counter-productive.

So I think in this case it's something Moscow would consider agreeing to.
 
lobosrul5 said:
They also had to deal with "bocage" country. Once they cleared that it was a very rapid advance to the "Siegfried Line". The terrain of eastern Ukraine looks highly suitable to armored operations to me.
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I think that's where the land mines come in.

So we had the much-derided videos of the pseudo-dragon's teeth and trenches. Much of the commentary seemed to be more akin to trash talk than to actual analysis.

Commentary showed vehicle barrier trenches and presented them as troop trenches.
Commentary showed how the dragon's teeth were not buried. I wondered if they were more designed like Czech hedgehogs, to roll and high center vehicles. They even had video of a tank going over one, but the video stopped with one tank tread up in the air, before the tank had completely cleared the obstacle.
Commentary often ignored the actual fighting position type trenches located behind the dragon's teeth and vehicle trenches. Partly because those are harder to see, often placed in the treelines.
Commentary often ignored the landmines places in front of the trenches.

We have already seen mine clearance machinery destroyed. Many of them work by detonating the mines and can only hit so many before they get damaged. They can be overwhelmed by sheer numbers of mines needing to be cleared. The ones that use det cord clear a limited length of line per shot but the current conflict has deep minefields with multiple layers fore and aft of the defensive layers.

I think Ukraine will push forward and be successful. But I think much of the "analysis" presented to the west was more akin to the trash talk that martial arts fighters do during weigh in and such. Trash talk is not a valid military strategy.

So I think Ukraine will push forward and gain quite a bit of territory. I think Ukraine will do that without needlessly sacrificing an unacceptable number of soldiers.

But I also think that many in the west will be surprised and disappointed by how slow the advance moves, by how many Ukrainians get killed and by how much equipment they lose. And I don't think Ukraine will recapture as much territory this summer as many seem to expect.
 
“It can be stated that all counteroffensive attempts made so far have failed. But the offensive potential of the Kyiv troops regime still remains,” Putin said in video shared on Telegram from Russian state media. - CNN Rolling
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If Putin has said the counteroffensive has failed, does this mean it's going well?
 
theprestige said:
It's been suggested that Moscow would like to drag this war on to the point where it becomes a fait accompli for them. A cease fire would further this aim.

Reneging after foreign aid workers enter the country, and opening fire on them, would be counter-productive.

So I think in this case it's something Moscow would consider agreeing to.
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Russia is not acting rationally. If it does, it's only coincidence. And Moscow agreed not to attack Ukraine in the first place. Yet here we are.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Russia is not acting rationally.
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Russia isn't acting at all. Putin is acting, Shoigu is acting, Prigozhin is acting, etc.

It is often a convenient fiction to talk about a nation acting, and that works moderately well when the various relevant actors within the nation have interests that align. But it starts to fall apart when their interests diverge. When that happens, then those important individual actors will start taking actions in their own interest but which aren't in the interest of other important individual actors. And those actions won't make sense, they will appear irrational, if you try to frame them in terms of a unified national interest.

There is no longer any unified "Russian" interest. The individual interests of the various players have diverged because the **** has hit the fan, and at this point it's every man for himself. Russia is doomed to lose, but the problem is that they can still do a **** ton of harm on the way down. In fact, their impending implosion makes them more dangerous in many ways, because there's no unified authority in a position to prevent spillover.
 
I noticed something interesting about the latest US aid package. It includes 203mm (8in) artillery shells, but Oryx lists no 203mm guns as having been delivered. These have been retired by all NATO countries and most allies, but presumably there are still some in storage.
 
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