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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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theprestige said:
Reports today that Moscow is not only declining to evacuate people in occupied territory, but they are also heavily shelling Kherson, where Ukrainian evacuation efforts are underway.
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I read reports that tell the opposite story - and it seems more plausible: that Russians and their artillery pieces have to be pulled 5 to 15 km further from the river because of flooding, as a consequence, shelling of right-bank Kherson has dropped to half or less of usual levels.
 
Oystein said:
I read reports that tell the opposite story - and it seems more plausible: that Russians and their artillery pieces have to be pulled 5 to 15 km further from the river because of flooding, as a consequence, shelling of right-bank Kherson has dropped to half or less of usual levels.
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The shelling has at times been intense enough to stop evacuation efforts.

I know you want to give a fair and balanced evaluation of Moscow's antics, and not just push the line that the Moscow regime is a miserable pile of madmen and monsters, who have nothing to offer the world but rape, pillage, and mass murder, but... read the room, dude. They're shelling humanitarian relief efforts. There's no need to try to downplay that.
 
theprestige said:
The shelling has at times been intense enough to stop evacuation efforts.

I know you want to give a fair and balanced evaluation of Moscow's antics, and not just push the line that the Moscow regime is a miserable pile of madmen and monsters, who have nothing to offer the world but rape, pillage, and mass murder, but... read the room, dude. They're shelling humanitarian relief efforts. There's no need to try to downplay that.
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Also, looking it up, Russian 155mm has a range of up to 42km, though some systems are less. Their missile based systems even further. So a km or two of water is not really going to effect their ability to hit either bank.

I think this was 100% planned by Russian senior leadership, with exactly the effects they wanted. That some of their units were caught up in it is explainable by incompetence and/or OpSEC. They didn't command tactical units in the area to pull back because that would giveaway their decision to blow the damn allowing Ukraine to also pullback.
 
What amazes me is that Russia believed that Ukraine could mount a significant offensive across a wide waterway under shellfire and expect to penetrate to any depth.
 
lobosrul5 said:
I think this was 100% planned by Russian senior leadership, with exactly the effects they wanted. That some of their units were caught up in it is explainable by incompetence and/or OpSEC. They didn't command tactical units in the area to pull back because that would giveaway their decision to blow the damn allowing Ukraine to also pullback.
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I think this was 100% FUBAR. The Russians wanted to flood the Ukrainians off the islands, not erase their own defences along the river.
 
lobosrul5 said:
I think this was 100% planned by Russian senior leadership, with exactly the effects they wanted. That some of their units were caught up in it is explainable by incompetence and/or OpSEC. They didn't command tactical units in the area to pull back because that would giveaway their decision to blow the damn allowing Ukraine to also pullback.
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Ehh, I'm currently in the camp that says that this is not 100% planned. Rather, the seemingly intended plan was a significantly smaller breach that would flood Ukrainian positions downriver and stop the minor skirmishes with Ukraine and claimed buildup. That is pretty much what they were initially congratulating themselves on doing, after all. By the sound of it, it was only later that they realized that they had utterly screwed up and started blaming Ukraine, shelling the remnants of the dam to try to fabricate evidence, and the like. It's a bit more parsimonious to assume that the specifically relevant incompetence was in the handling of a planned dam breach than something more large scale. Either way, Russia's not likely to investigate. Apparently, about a week ago, instructions were made that military related dam damage in Ukraine is not allowed to be investigated until 2028.

The targeting of humanitarian efforts is pretty much SOP for Russia, either way, and doesn't require any special plan to explain.

Lplus said:
What amazes me is that Russia believed that Ukraine could mount a significant offensive across a wide waterway under shellfire and expect to penetrate to any depth.
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If anything, that would speak to Russia's inability to locate the offensive in time and mount a meaningful defense than anything else.

Either way, Ukraine seems to have breached at least some Russian defense lines north of Melitopol and Tokmak, in addition to gaining high ground to the east of there.
 
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theprestige said:
...
I know you want to give a fair and balanced evaluation of Moscow's antics...
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No.

ETA:
I am merely reporting to you what I read on the news today, and that was credited to a Ukrainian military speaker:
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-ukraine-donnerstag-240.html
Tagesschau said:
...
13:50 Uhr
Russische Armee wegen Staudamm-Bruch zu Rückzug gezwungen
Die durch den Bruch des Kachowka-Staudamms in der Südukraine verursachten Überschwemmungen haben die russischen Truppen laut ukrainischen Angaben zu einem größeren Rückzug gezwungen. Die russischen Streitkräfte hätten sich wegen der Wassermassen in der Region Cherson um fünf bis 15 Kilometer zurückziehen müssen, sagte eine ukrainische Militärsprecherin im Fernsehen. Dies habe den russischen Beschuss in der Region "praktisch halbiert".

[Tranlation:
2023/06/08 1:50 p.m. CEDT
Russian Army forced to retreat because of dam failure
The inundations caused by the breaking of the Kachovka dam in Southern Ukraine have, according to Ukrainian statements, forced a larger retreat on Russian troops. The Russian armed forces had to retreat by five to 15 km because of the masses of water in the Kherson region, a speaker for the Ukrainian military said on TV. This has reduced Russian shelling of the region practicall by half.]
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So no, most decidedly I am NOT AT ALL giving any "evaluation of Moscow's antics", not at all. I am giving you Kyiv's "antics".
 
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Aridas said:
The targeting of humanitarian efforts is pretty much SOP for Russia, either way, and doesn't require any special plan to explain.
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That is logical I suppose. Just because Russia is shelling humanitarian efforts, does not necessarily mean they planned a humanitarian crisis. Just that they are taking advantage of it.
 
Aridas said:
Ehh, I'm currently in the camp that says that this is not 100% planned. Rather, the seemingly intended plan was a significantly smaller breach that would flood Ukrainian positions downriver and stop the minor skirmishes with Ukraine and claimed buildup. That is pretty much what they were initially congratulating themselves on doing, after all. By the sound of it, it was only later that they realized that they had utterly screwed up and started blaming Ukraine, shelling the remnants of the dam to try to fabricate evidence, and the like. It's a bit more parsimonious to assume that the specifically relevant incompetence was in the handling of a planned dam breach than something more large scale. Either way, Russia's not likely to investigate. Apparently, about a week ago, instructions were made that military related dam damage in Ukraine is not allowed to be investigated until 2028.

The targeting of humanitarian efforts is pretty much SOP for Russia, either way, and doesn't require any special plan to explain.



If anything, that would speak to Russia's inability to locate the offensive in time and mount a meaningful defense than anything else.

Either way, Ukraine seems to have breached at least some Russian defense lines north of Melitopol and Tokmak, in addition to gaining high ground to the east of there.
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Malicious incompetence. You just know Moscow is going to do something evil, and you also know they're probably going to hurt themselves in the process.
 
Oystein said:
No.

ETA:
I am merely reporting to you what I read on the news today, and that was credited to a Ukrainian military speaker:
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-ukraine-donnerstag-240.html

So no, most decidedly I am NOT AT ALL giving any "evaluation of Moscow's antics", not at all. I am giving you Kyiv's "antics".
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Both things can be true: Moscow's overall capacity for shelling in the region can decrease somewhat, and Moscow can use its remaining capacity to heavily shell evacuation operations. There's no need to cite claims of the former in response to claims of the latter.

"They're massacring flood victims and their rescuers!"

"I heard they're only using three out of every four of their available guns to do it, though."

For some bizarre reason, you're trying to downplay the horrific behavior of the Muscovites.
 
You know how in old video games, like beat'em up side scrollers, you'd often have an attack that would do massive damage but cost you some health in the process?

"Accidently hitting that button when there are no enemy's on screen" is Russia's MO at this point.
 
theprestige said:
Malicious incompetence. You just know Moscow is going to do something evil, and you also know they're probably going to hurt themselves in the process.
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Malicious Incompetence rolls off the tongue better, but what you've described (and I feel is happening) is more accurately described as Incompetent Maliciousness.
 
theprestige said:
Malicious incompetence. You just know Moscow is going to do something evil, and you also know they're probably going to hurt themselves in the process.
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Not going to argue against that.

Jimbo07 said:
Malicious Incompetence rolls off the tongue better, but what you've described (and I feel is happening) is more accurately described as Incompetent Maliciousness.
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Maybe, but if we're arguing the semantics here, Incompetent Maliciousness also suggests that they're bad at Maliciousness. They've got the malice part down pat, though, of course. Malicious and incompetent might be the actual more accurate thing to say, if you want to quibble.
 
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Aridas said:
if you want to quibble.
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Oh, and I do!

There have been aspects of everything which have been:
- Malicious Incomptence
- Incompetent Maliciousness
- Malicious and Incompetent
- But also - Maliciousness due to Incomptence (can't win? Scorched earth. Can't make gains? Bomb civil infrastructure. Etc.)
 
Jimbo07 said:
Oh, and I do!

There have been aspects of everything which have been:
- Malicious Incomptence
- Incompetent Maliciousness
- Malicious and Incompetent
- But also - Maliciousness due to Incomptence (can't win? Scorched earth. Can't make gains? Bomb civil infrastructure. Etc.)
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I'd say that Russia is more incompetently malicious, than maliciously incompetent. I've actually seen the latter phrase before on reddit. Its generally in reference to either co-workers, or domestic partners, being so bad at something that those around them have to pick up the slack, to a degree that its questioned whether its purposeful or not. That would work as an analogy to the Russia military was SO bad that they're making private military groups do the work for them... which maybe they have tried? But in the case of the dam, they were incompetently malicious. They tried to just drown out the Ukrainian positions, but also drowned out their own positions. OR they wanted to cause a huge flood and didn't care about their own soldiers. In which case they're just brutally malicious.
 
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Jimbo07 said:
Oh, and I do!

There have been aspects of everything which have been:
- Malicious Incomptence
- Incompetent Maliciousness
- Malicious and Incompetent
- But also - Maliciousness due to Incomptence (can't win? Scorched earth. Can't make gains? Bomb civil infrastructure. Etc.)
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Incompetitious Malificence?
 
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