Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[Mike!]

Almost tempted to poll everybody here to see what day they think the offensive will really start. Not having a good definition for what that will be makes it a bit silly. But we can still pick dates.

They are not going to wait for all the tanks and planes to show up. We are into June so the "spring" part of a spring offensive is about over with. Weather reports I looked at show rain starting around June 10th in a couple of key locations. I think they are going to go this month and, without much of anything to really back this up, I am guessing June 8th. Odds of being wrong are quite high. Take your best guess.

I suspect it's already started and it just hasn't become obvious yet. As I've said before, the pot of water is on the stove and the burner is lit, but it's set to slow boil and will take a little time before it is observably going on full steam.

 

[Doubt]

I suspect it's already started and it just hasn't become obvious yet. As I've said before, the pot of water is on the stove and the burner is lit, but it's set to slow boil and will take a little time before it is observably going on full steam.

That is the problem with trying to define what counts as the start. Clearly there are offensive operations happening. But they aren't yet making a play for a lot of territory and the majority of what they could commit are not currently active. Without a good definition for what counts as being "the" offensive, we have a subjective opinions about when it does or has started.

I am not calling the current operations "the" offensive since they have not really committed a serious amount of force yet. But that is, again, subjective.

 

[Doubt]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-june-broadcasting-of-several-tv-channels-in-crimea-was

Broadcasting of several TV channels in Crimea was hacked. Operators turning off them

Wondering if that was the work of somebody in Crimea or was it all done remotely.

 

[gnome]

That is the problem with trying to define what counts as the start. Clearly there are offensive operations happening. But they aren't yet making a play for a lot of territory and the majority of what they could commit are not currently active. Without a good definition for what counts as being "the" offensive, we have a subjective opinions about when it does or has started.

I am not calling the current operations "the" offensive since they have not really committed a serious amount of force yet. But that is, again, subjective.

Would a committed effort to reclaim and hold some portion of Russian-occupied territory count as a good criteria to distinguish the offensive itself rather than preparations?

 

[Dr.Sid]

Video which was shown on the hacked Crimean TV channels. No idea what's going on. But something is.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1665408228396507138

 

[theprestige]

Would a committed effort to reclaim and hold some portion of Russian-occupied territory count as a good criteria to distinguish the offensive itself rather than preparations?

I would expect the offensive to have been well under way, before any such effort is visible. Ukraine cannot really afford to throw large amounts of soldiers and equipment at a head-on assault, unless victory is assured.

Therefore I suspect that they will continue to conduct "shaping" operations. Whittling away here. Eroding there. Until Moscow's defenses reach an inflection point, where the next attack will shatter them completely.

I think what we'll see is yet another withdrawal by Moscow, only it turns into a rout, and the rout becomes general, and the Ukrainians go all out in the pursuit and destruction of the routing forces.

 

[jimbob]

I would expect the offensive to have been well under way, before any such effort is visible. Ukraine cannot really afford to throw large amounts of soldiers and equipment at a head-on assault, unless victory is assured.

Therefore I suspect that they will continue to conduct "shaping" operations. Whittling away here. Eroding there. Until Moscow's defenses reach an inflection point, where the next attack will shatter them completely.

I think what we'll see is yet another withdrawal by Moscow, only it turns into a rout, and the rout becomes general, and the Ukrainians go all out in the pursuit and destruction of the routing forces.

That seems very plausible

 

[gnome]

I would expect the offensive to have been well under way, before any such effort is visible. Ukraine cannot really afford to throw large amounts of soldiers and equipment at a head-on assault, unless victory is assured.

Therefore I suspect that they will continue to conduct "shaping" operations. Whittling away here. Eroding there. Until Moscow's defenses reach an inflection point, where the next attack will shatter them completely.

I think what we'll see is yet another withdrawal by Moscow, only it turns into a rout, and the rout becomes general, and the Ukrainians go all out in the pursuit and destruction of the routing forces.

I more or less agree with your prediction as a strong possibility. I guess it's still a matter of semantics as to what counts as prep and what counts as the offensive operation properly underway.

Now I wonder if the distinction is considered important among military professionals as much as it seems to be from the sidelines.

 

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1665033835313020930

Interesting thread about how Mobiks are being treated.

1/ Men mobilised by the Russian Army were reportedly sold to a mercenary group for 25,000 rubles each ($310) and told they would be shot unless they fought in the Battle of Bahkmut. Hundreds are said to have become casualties. Now their relatives cannot contact the survivors.

claims in the thread are

Trained by a PMC

7/ The Veterans PMC is an offshoot of Redut, a larger mercenary group owned by the Russian oligarch Gennady Timchenko. It has been active in Ukraine since the start of the war. The core of the Veterans consists of Russian military veterans who have been hired as mercenaries.

Given spiked water after training

Woken up with no phones etc and forced to sign contracts then made to fight in Bakhmut

130 survivors out of 501 starting. PMC said there're no casualties.

 

[Doubt]

I would expect the offensive to have been well under way, before any such effort is visible. Ukraine cannot really afford to throw large amounts of soldiers and equipment at a head-on assault, unless victory is assured.

Therefore I suspect that they will continue to conduct "shaping" operations. Whittling away here. Eroding there. Until Moscow's defenses reach an inflection point, where the next attack will shatter them completely.

I think what we'll see is yet another withdrawal by Moscow, only it turns into a rout, and the rout becomes general, and the Ukrainians go all out in the pursuit and destruction of the routing forces.

Russia's offensive operations are fading out. Either because they are prepping for defense or they just don't have anything left to attack with.

The inability to offer any real defense to the limited attacks at Bakmut and the actions by the Russian groups crossing the border suggests that they the Russians are already going to fold pretty quickly.

But as you said, the Ukrainians cannot afford casualties. But we seem to already be at the point where the offensive can start.

 

[a_unique_person]

Those Iranian drones diabolical.

 

[Pixel42]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

Russia's defence ministry says it has thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive and killed 250 Ukrainian troops.

There has been no comment from Kyiv and the Russian claim has not been independently verified.

The ministry said Ukraine had launched the offensive in the Donetsk region on Sunday using six mechanised and two tank battalions.

A Ukrainian counter-offensive has been promised, but on Sunday, Kyiv called for silence ahead of the operation.

It is as yet unclear whether the alleged attacks indicate that the offensive to recapture Ukrainian land from Russian forces has started.

"On the morning of 4 June, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction," the Russian defence ministry said on Telegram.

The ministry said the Ukrainians tried to break through Russian defences in what Kyiv saw as the most vulnerable part of the frontline.

"The enemy did not achieve its tasks, it had no success."

Video posted showed military vehicles being attacked from the air. Moscow claimed Ukraine had lost 250 troops as well as 16 tanks.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

Much as I distrust anything coming from Russia, this has a whiff of truth about it. Opinion this morning on Radio 4 was this was likely a probe that got beaten back rather than an all out assault but the general view was that an attack had happened and been repelled.

 

[jimbob]

Looks like Russian Telegram(Wargonzo milblogger, for example) is saying that the situation is getting worse (from a Russian perspective).

Secondhand sources though as I won't do Telegram as it is Russian owned

 

[jimbob]

Also reports by Prigozhin that his Wagner PMC captured a Russian Colonel who was shooting at them.

Which is interesting, and does seem to look at how many bridges he can burn

 

[Aridas]

Much as I distrust anything coming from Russia, this has a whiff of truth about it. Opinion this morning on Radio 4 was this was likely a probe that got beaten back rather than an all out assault but the general view was that an attack had happened and been repelled.

Maybe? It's Russia, so it's likely dramatically overstated, though, even if there happens to be at least a grain of truth. Given Russia, of course, video of a few stopped and a couple vehicles on fire might be just as likely to actually be Russian vehicles that Russia just lost, though. Supposedly, Russian Telegram sources admit that a couple settlements and other positions have been retaken by Ukraine, either way. Maybe shaping actions, maybe not. It's Russia, so it's always good to take with a pinch of salt.

Also reports by Prigozhin that his Wagner PMC captured a Russian Colonel who was shooting at them.

Which is interesting, and does seem to look at how many bridges he can burn

Captured, beaten, broke nose, and forced to confess that he was shooting at them out of personal animosity on now posted video, apparently. Whether the confession is actual true or not is hard to say, of course.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

NYTimes discussing the elephant in the room:

Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History

A decently comprehensive roundup of how all these pieces of pesky Nazi imagery keep showing up on the chests and shoulders of certain Ukrainian soldiers at the front.

In November, during a meeting with Times reporters near the front line, a Ukrainian press officer wore a Totenkopf variation made by a company called R3ICH (pronounced “Reich”). He said he did not believe the patch was affiliated with the Nazis. A second press officer present said other journalists had asked soldiers to remove the patch before taking photographs.

Lol, that's a bold one.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/world/europe/nazi-symbols-ukraine.html

 

[Drewbot]

Paywalled

But will add that Russian propaganda has been pointing out every symbol they can to push the idea that Ukraine is full of nazis.
However, actions speak much louder than pictures of tattoos on a few soldiers.

 

[theprestige]

NYTimes discussing the elephant in the room:



A decently comprehensive roundup of how all these pieces of pesky Nazi imagery keep showing up on the chests and shoulders of certain Ukrainian soldiers at the front.



Lol, that's a bold one.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/world/europe/nazi-symbols-ukraine.html

This has been discussed before. I'm pretty sure that as you go further into Eastern Europe, "nazi" takes on a somewhat different meaning. Here in the west, we equate Nazism with the Holocaust and white supremacist ideology. But it seems that to the east of Germany, people think of Nazism more in terms of the horrors visited upon them by the Nazi regime. They're not making common cause with evil Jew-hating bastards to promote an aryan empire. They're identifying with evil Russian-hating bastards. And really, in Ukraine's case, can you blame them? Adopting the iconography of the army renowned for massacring Russians by the tens of thousands seems reasonable. Especially if you are not burdened by the Western taboo against it.

Of course, Ukrainians were also raped and pillaged by the Nazis, but sometimes you don't have a lot of choices. Even Finland allied first with the Third Reich, then with the Soviet Union, in a desperate attempt to keep itself intact with competing predators on either side.

Why should we be upset about Ukrainian appropriation of the iconography? Other than because of our extreme taboo against it? It's not like the west was there for them, when the Wehrmacht rolled through. It's not like the west was there for them, the last time they were raped and pillaged by the Russian Empire. Why should the west now dictate to them how they should feel about their own history, their own holocausts?

I do think that if you polled Ukrainians, you'd find a problematic amount of anti-semitism. And I think you'd find, perhaps, a distasteful amount of ultra-nationalist sentiment expressed. But I don't think you'd find a race-war-mongering neonazi Reichskult in the mold of, say, the brain-dead American fascist movements.

Whatever the actual extent of the problem (which I'm not convinced is even really a problem at all, except for Westerners who want to see it that way), I think at this point it's safe to let Ukraine deal with it after they win this war.

I would even go so far as to say it's morally correct to downplay this issue, in favor of encouraging broad public support for Ukraine, rather than harp on it like it needs to be a concern right now.

 

[lobosrul5]

This has been discussed before. I'm pretty sure that as you go further into Eastern Europe, "nazi" takes on a somewhat different meaning. Here in the west, we equate Nazism with the Holocaust and white supremacist ideology. But it seems that to the east of Germany, people think of Nazism more in terms of the horrors visited upon them by the Nazi regime. They're not making common cause with evil Jew-hating bastards to promote an aryan empire. They're identifying with evil Russian-hating bastards. And really, in Ukraine's case, can you blame them? Adopting the iconography of the army renowned for massacring Russians by the tens of thousands seems reasonable. Especially if you are not burdened by the Western taboo against it.

Of course, Ukrainians were also raped and pillaged by the Nazis, but sometimes you don't have a lot of choices. Even Finland allied first with the Third Reich, then with the Soviet Union, in a desperate attempt to keep itself intact with competing predators on either side.

Why should we be upset about Ukrainian appropriation of the iconography? Other than because of our extreme taboo against it? It's not like the west was there for them, when the Wehrmacht rolled through. It's not like the west was there for them, the last time they were raped and pillaged by the Russian Empire. Why should the west now dictate to them how they should feel about their own history, their own holocausts?

I do think that if you polled Ukrainians, you'd find a problematic amount of anti-semitism. And I think you'd find, perhaps, a distasteful amount of ultra-nationalist sentiment expressed. But I don't think you'd find a race-war-mongering neonazi Reichskult in the mold of, say, the brain-dead American fascist movements.

Whatever the actual extent of the problem (which I'm not convinced is even really a problem at all, except for Westerners who want to see it that way), I think at this point it's safe to let Ukraine deal with it after they win this war.

I would even go so far as to say it's morally correct to downplay this issue, in favor of encouraging broad public support for Ukraine, rather than harp on it like it needs to be a concern right now.

I couldn't read the linked article, is paywalled. But, I'd surmise its something along the lines of:

OK Russia, you keep calling us Nazi's, despite the fact that we overwhelming voted in a Jewish president. Well then, OK we'll play along. We're "nazis". You are being defeated by "nazis". Theyre thumbing their noses at them in away.

ETA: also may be related to Russia always playing the hero card that they defeated the Nazis in WW2, while totally ignoring all the horrendous **** they did... like cooperating with the Nazis until betrayed by them.