Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4

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And since The Atheist, for whatever reason, finds it dishonest of me to confront him with New Zealand's numbers, I found some numbers from another country whose statistics are fairly reliable, I think. After all, The Atheist is a Kiwi and I'm not, so maybe he knows something about NZ statistics that I don't.

It's not that I find it dishonest, it's that your posts are totally dishonest.

I've repeatedly stated and posted numbers for the world. Not NZ, the world. To claim they have anything to do with NZ is blatantly false.

Not that it'll shut you up, I'll post the data again, to appease the one person in the world still panicking about covid.

Covid is killing 350 a day right now, or a whopping 128,000 a year.

Deaths by fire and hepatitis are both 130,000*

*Wikipedia may understate hepatitis deaths by a significant number, as WHO states it's 900,000 from Hep B alone. That's a communicable disease killing more than 5 times as many as covid.
 
No, it's not. The Atheist regularly downplays the pandemic and its death toll and ignores fairly obvious truths:
"Almost 7 million deaths have been reported to WHO, but we know the toll is several times higher – at least 20 million."


Now that regular testing and reporting of the disease has been more or less abolished even in the industrialized world, the official death toll has become even less reliable, which is why I confront The Atheist with fairly reliable statistics, in particular New Zealand's, whenever he posts unreliable claims about "the world".

But The Atheist doesn't like reliable statistics about the pandemic. Since his only concern is finding ways to minimize the apparent impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on people's health and lives, he posts whatever seems to him to kinda prove his point. This is also the reason why he doesn't comment on the numbers in the statistics I present.

His own link, if he had actually read the Wikipedia article he links to, would help him understand why C-19 deaths tend to be underestimated: Such deaths are sometimes evaluated via excess deaths per capita. Unlike, for instance, road or fire deaths.

As I mentioned in my post 2,919 yesterday, in 2023 so far the USA, USA alone, has had approximately 50,000 confirmed C-19 deaths. (Unfortunately, Our World in Data no longer gives us a more accurate number.):
(This year, so far, it's approximately 50,000 confirmed C-19 deaths, so already 13 times more C-19 deaths in the first four months than the number of fire deaths in all of 2021.)


And yet, he pretends that C-19 kills only "128,000 a year." In the whole effing world! So in spite of the USA having only a very small fraction of the world's population:
Population:
World: 7.888 billion
USA: 0.332 billion
The USA is still supposed to have more than one third of the world's C-19 deaths!

The Atheist doesn't actually believe this to be true. As I have mentioned before, his behavior in this question is akin to Swedish Clutch Cargo's when he continued to post WHO's daily count of C-19 deaths around the world but always did so before Sweden's numbers had been reported in order to make it look as if Sweden had 'Zero Covid'.

Scammers gonna scam. Minimizers gonna minimize.


ETA: This footnote is particularly interesting:

*Wikipedia may understate hepatitis deaths by a significant number, as WHO states it's 900,000 from Hep B alone. That's a communicable disease killing more than 5 times as many as covid.


Notice that The Atheist is aware that his world numbers are unreliable, but it only occurs to him when one of the numbers he uses in his comparisons to minimize COVID-19's impact is probably underestimated. It never occurs to him (to mention) that the C-19 death toll according to official world statistics might be underestimated, too.
This is why I prefer the numbers from, for instance, New Zealand and the USA and will continue to post them whenever The Atheist comes up with his attempts at truthiness.

The Atheist refers to the world numbers (if he refers to anything specific at all) as if the number of C-19 deaths last week was reliable. I can't say if he does so deliberately imitating Clutch Cargo's tactics or not, but last week's numbers are usually much more unreliable than last year's or those from two months ago because even some of the countries that have fairly reliable statistics in the long run take their time reporting those numbers. Our World in Data has an old (in pandemic terms) article about the problem: Why do COVID-19 deaths in Sweden’s official data always appear to decrease? (Nov 13, 2020)
 
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When it comes to total deaths, COVID is a year-round pathogen at the moment with some peaks and valleys. Flu for the most part is a seasonal winter disease. ... Just saying.

So there are 3 comparisons to consider:
Deaths per capita
per year
per case​
I think COVID is still more deadly.


Short Twitter thread about pediatric deaths from C-19 and the flu:
CDC just updated state pediatric death certificate counts
Great Infection is the period where over fifty million children were infected against their will with a BSL-3 vascular superpathogen -- so that their parents got back to work
Gregory Travis. Make schools #DavosSafe (Twitter, May 13, 2023)


The graph in this tweet may give the best impression of pediatric COVID-19 and influenza deaths in comparison, Dec 2019 to Mar-April 2023:
average monthly deaths from influenza will continue to decrease given the high historic prevalence of COVID deaths in children in summer and the nonexistent historic prevalence of influenza deaths in children in summer
Gregory Travis. Make schools #DavosSafe (Twitter, May 13, 2023)
 
WHO is releasing the 2023 edition of its annual World Health Statistics report with new figures on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and the latest statistics on progress towards the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
(...)
The report documents updated statistics on the toll of the pandemic on global health, contributing to the ongoing decline in progress towards the SDGs. During 2020-2021, COVID-19 resulted in a staggering 336.8 million years of life lost globally. This equates to an average of 22 years of life lost for every excess death, abruptly and tragically cutting short the lives of millions of people.
Urgent action needed to tackle stalled progress on health-related Sustainable Development Goals (WHO, May 19, 2023)


It seems to contradict the idea that the majority of COVID-19 deaths are in people who would have died next week anyway, doesn't it?!
 
Short Twitter thread about pediatric deaths from C-19 and the flu:

The graph in this tweet may give the best impression of pediatric COVID-19 and influenza deaths in comparison, Dec 2019 to Mar-April 2023:

WTF is this anti-vaxxer crap? He doesn't even name the vaccine, that, among a gazillion other red flags, should tell you something isn't right about this claim.
Great Infection is the period where over fifty million children were infected against their will with a BSL-3 vascular superpathogen -- so that their parents got back to work
 
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It seems to contradict the idea that the majority of COVID-19 deaths are in people who would have died next week anyway, doesn't it?!

Yet again you're wrongly conflating what happened pre-vaccine to post-vaccine, but I certainly don't expect you to be honest. Nobody has ever suggested that pre-vaccine deaths were exclusively old people.

Your continued dishonesty is no surprise whatsoever.

In 2023, the total number of covid deaths will be ~250,000, which is less than 10% of 2021 deaths.
 
Are Covid-19 vaccines considered "leaky" or "all or nothing"?

Question for virus experts:

Are Covid-19 vaccines considered "leaky" or "all or nothing"?

The difference changes the meaning of Ve (vaccine efficacy). Leaky means that the vaccine serves as a kind of filter where Ve represents the reduction in risk of infection upon exposure. All or Nothing means the vaccine provides protection and if a person is protected, they will not get the disease no matter how many times they are exposed.

An example of leaky is masks. An example of all or nothing are vaccines for things like smallpox (I think) because the disease develops slowly enough that immune response kicks in and stops the infection before any symptoms occur.

An example of where it matters is the initial Pfizer vax which had a Ve of 95% Because the trial only had 1% of the placebo group becoming symptomatic, the Ve would be the same for either case. Where it would matter is when a large percentage were infected then the apparent Ve diverges.

For example:

Take 2 groups of 1000 people each where one group was vaccinated (Ve=95%) and 3/4 of the unvaxxed group became symptomatic. The number of symptomatics in the vaxxed group would differ. For the leaky vax, the expected number would be 65. For the all or nothing group the number would be 38.

What is the concensus for Covid-19? Note that issues of vaccine waning, variant escape, etc. are important but separate issues.
 
Question for virus experts:

Are Covid-19 vaccines considered "leaky" or "all or nothing"?...

What is the concensus for Covid-19? Note that issues of vaccine waning, variant escape, etc. are important but separate issues.
The problem with this question is you are looking for an answer when the number of variables don't lend themselves to such an answer.

Variables:
Vaccine response:
Genetics
Immune system variables
Age
Past exposure to related viruses
Vaccine dose
Timing between doses
Vaccine storage
Type of vaccine​
Virus variables
Dose
Route of entry
Variants
Things that affect virus survivability between hosts​

And some variables I'm probably forgetting at the moment.
 
Question for virus experts:

Are Covid-19 vaccines considered "leaky" or "all or nothing"?

The difference changes the meaning of Ve (vaccine efficacy). Leaky means that the vaccine serves as a kind of filter where Ve represents the reduction in risk of infection upon exposure. All or Nothing means the vaccine provides protection and if a person is protected, they will not get the disease no matter how many times they are exposed.

An example of leaky is masks. An example of all or nothing are vaccines for things like smallpox (I think) because the disease develops slowly enough that immune response kicks in and stops the infection before any symptoms occur.

An example of where it matters is the initial Pfizer vax which had a Ve of 95% Because the trial only had 1% of the placebo group becoming symptomatic, the Ve would be the same for either case. Where it would matter is when a large percentage were infected then the apparent Ve diverges.

For example:

Take 2 groups of 1000 people each where one group was vaccinated (Ve=95%) and 3/4 of the unvaxxed group became symptomatic. The number of symptomatics in the vaxxed group would differ. For the leaky vax, the expected number would be 65. For the all or nothing group the number would be 38.

What is the concensus for Covid-19? Note that issues of vaccine waning, variant escape, etc. are important but separate issues.

I have made this point before, it is rather nit picky, but as the vaccine acts within the body it cannot be effective until the virus is within the body i.e. you are infected. What vaccines do is modify the course of the infection resulting in earlier more effective immune responses that mean the infection is asymptomatic or mild and onward transmission is interrupted.

There are vaccines that may in addition reduce the risk of infection, mucosal vaccines such as oral polio vaccine or intra-nasal flu. These stimulate mucosal immunity and may stop the infection entering the body.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/n...virus-it-gets-lungs-immunologist-explains-how

As SG says this is complex. The effect of most vaccines wains over time and that is why boosters are needed. Individual immune systems vary, viruses mutate in part to evade the immune system. All or none is rartely a thing in biology.
 
The problem with this question is you are looking for an answer when the number of variables don't lend themselves to such an answer.

No doubt there are many variables that might effect the "leaky" or "all or nothing" vaccination but it seems vaccines tend to be characterized as one or the other. And there is recognition that these represent extremes and it's more likely some mix.

Here's one paper from pre-covid:
https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=73863
Halloran and colleagues [28] used the terms leaky, all-or-nothing, or waning vaccine to describe their apparent success and biology. Farrington and colleagues [29] cited the vaccine for pertussis as a leaky vaccine, while those for measles and rubella were all-or-nothing...


I found one paper that suggests, with wide CIs, that Covid-19 vaxxes are leaky. They looked at incarcerated population:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.02.17.23286049v1.full
Further, we found that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduced the risk of infection among residents with cellblock exposures and without documented exposures, but not residents with cell exposures during both periods. Finally, we found that the vaccination status of the index case was associated with a non-significant reduction in the risk of secondary SARS-CoV-2 cases following cell and cellblock exposures during Delta and Omicron periods.
 
As SG says this is complex. The effect of most vaccines wains over time and that is why boosters are needed. Individual immune systems vary, viruses mutate in part to evade the immune system. All or none is rartely a thing in biology.

Yeah. It's more of a concept than reality. Useful as an explanation for two different, ideal, protection mechanisms. And both waning and variants clearly account for more impact.

My interest coming across this was looking at a CDC study of hospitalized patients where they derived a Ve of 82% from a vax/unvaxxed hospitalized group with uncorrected numbers more like 65%. This was talked about by a vax skeptic stating that the CDC had made a calculation error. But this would only be the case for a mostly all or nothing vax. The CDC numbers are much more consistent with a leaky vax than all or nothing. And that aligns with the incarcerated study I quoted earlier.
 
I have made this point before, it is rather nit picky, but as the vaccine acts within the body it cannot be effective until the virus is within the body i.e. you are infected. What vaccines do is modify the course of the infection resulting in earlier more effective immune responses that mean the infection is asymptomatic or mild and onward transmission is interrupted.
Sorry, no, preventing infection is not limited to mucosal vaccines.

Other vaccines block the infection from starting. That tends to happen with pathogens that have long incubation periods.

Take Hep B vaccine. Immunity is documented by looking for sufficient Hep B surface antibody. Looking for past infection one looks for Hep B core antibody. Only rarely does Hep B core antibody show up in an adequately vaccinated person. The ACIP guideline says that's not a problem as so far in the cohort study in AK none of those people developed Hep B surface antigen. The conclusion is they have life-long protection.

Study looking at vaccine response and the need (or no need) for boosters.
Initial anti-HBs level after the primary series was correlated with higher anti-HBs levels at 35 years. Among 8 persons who tested positive for antibody to hepatitis B core antigen, none tested positive for HBsAg or HBV DNA.

There were similar results in the initial Taiwan cohort from the early 80s.

So in most persons adequately vaccinated for Hep B, the evidence shows the infection was prevented, not just stopped from causing disease.


There are vaccines that may in addition reduce the risk of infection, mucosal vaccines such as oral polio vaccine or intra-nasal flu. These stimulate mucosal immunity and may stop the infection entering the body.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/n...virus-it-gets-lungs-immunologist-explains-how
From that link:
Some research suggests that if these SIgA antibody responses form as a result of vaccination or prior infection, or occur quickly enough in response to a new infection, they could prevent serious disease by confining the virus to the upper respiratory tract until it is eliminated.
That sounds like the virus does get a foot in the door so to speak but is blocked from going further. I don't know because I haven't looked into it.
 
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... The CDC numbers are much more consistent with a leaky vax than all or nothing. And that aligns with the incarcerated study I quoted earlier.
One thing to keep in mind here is we are still limited in COVID antibody testing, though researchers have access to more sophisticated tests than are on the market. So one can't look at antibodies and antigens in the blood of persons infected or vaccinated and determine what's being prevented, modified, or no reaction at all. The research has decades to go before we'll have those kinds of studies.

But there's no doubt the COVID vaccines (all versions on the market currently) are 'leaky'. In a few cases some persons vaccinated and asymptomatic might still be infectious though much less so than an unvaccinated person. COVID vaccine resisters misinterpreted this fact claiming there was no reason to get vaccinated.


Vaccine trivia:

Some pathogens mutate more readily than others. An interesting benefit of measles and hep B vaccines is so far very few variants that can escape the vaccines have developed. If you prevent infection you don't get an enormous amount of virus replication, which means less opportunity for copy-mistakes to occur.

And viruses don't replicate outside of cells, so any in the environment can't replicate. Some last longer on surfaces like Hep B, and some drift long distances on air currents like measles. Without animal hosts besides humans, for all intents and purposes Hep B and measles vaccines are 'all or none.'

There are very few measles vaccine failures but there are a few. That led to a 2nd dose of measles vaccine, not to 'boost' the vaccine, rather to get more of those vaccine failures.

With Hep B vaccinations, doses in the butt and 1st doses in persons 50 and over have a higher failure rates. For those folks we test them for vaccine response and give more doses as needed.
 
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Sorry, no, preventing infection is not limited to mucosal vaccines.

Other vaccines block the infection from starting. That tends to happen with pathogens that have long incubation periods.

Take Hep B vaccine. Immunity is documented by looking for sufficient Hep B surface antibody. Looking for past infection one looks for Hep B core antibody. Only rarely does Hep B core antibody show up in an adequately vaccinated person. The ACIP guideline says that's not a problem as so far in the cohort study in AK none of those people developed Hep B surface antigen. The conclusion is they have life-long protection.

Study looking at vaccine response and the need (or no need) for boosters.


There were similar results in the initial Taiwan cohort from the early 80s.

So in most persons adequately vaccinated for Hep B, the evidence shows the infection was prevented, not just stopped from causing disease.



From that link:
That sounds like the virus does get a foot in the door so to speak but is blocked from going further. I don't know because I haven't looked into it.

I think you misunderstand what is happening here. The hep B vaccine is the surface antigen from the virus, so the presence of the antibody is used to show that the vaccine has worked, some people fail to seroconvert and need additional boosters.

Because the core antigen is not in the vaccine the presence of core antibody indicates previous infection rather than vaccination (both previous infection and vaccination may produce surface antigen antibodies).

If core antigen antibody develops in a vaccinated person that can only be because they became infected with hepatitis B and an immune response was generated to core antigen produced by replicating virus.

What the vaccine does is effectively abolish the viraemic phase, so transmissibility (both vertical and horizontal) and chronic infection that leads to cirrhosis and cancer.

If you have any virus replication you have active infection.

The main reason that hepatitis B and measles have few variants is because they are DNA viruses which have much lower rates of mutation than RNA viruses.
 
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I think you misunderstand what is happening here. The hep B vaccine is the surface antigen from the virus, so the presence of the antibody is used to show that the vaccine has worked, some people fail to seroconvert and need additional boosters.

Because the core antigen is not in the vaccine the presence of core antibody indicates previous infection rather than vaccination (both previous infection and vaccination may produce surface antigen antibodies).

If core antigen antibody develops in a vaccinated person that can only be because they became infected with hepatitis B and an immune response was generated to core antigen produced by replicating virus.

What the vaccine does is effectively abolish the viraemic phase, so transmissibility (both vertical and horizontal) and chronic infection that leads to cirrhosis and cancer.

If you have any virus replication you have active infection.

The main reason that hepatitis B and measles have few variants is because they are DNA viruses which have much lower rates of mutation than RNA viruses.
You really need to give it up. You aren't making yourself look any more well informed. :rolleyes:

Pg said:
Because the core antigen is not in the vaccine the presence of core antibody indicates previous infection rather than vaccination (both previous infection and vaccination may produce surface antigen antibodies).
Core antibody can indicate past infection. But in the AK and Taiwan cohort studies ruling out previous infection was done. That's what you do in one of these vaccine efficacy studies, make sure the population is not previously infected. On top of that you then document vaccine conversion.

The cohort is then tested on a regular basis because what the researchers are looking for is when if ever boosters are needed.

Look it up and get back to us.


Even your backpedaling is a fail.

Pg said:
What the vaccine does is effectively abolish the viraemic phase, so transmissibility (both vertical and horizontal) and chronic infection that leads to cirrhosis and cancer.

If you have any virus replication you have active infection.
And you don't get core antibody years after a documented vaccine response without an active infection. It might be brief.

About 85% of people infected with Hep B never get enough viremia to matter. Their bodies clear the virus without becoming carriers and without (as far as we know) infecting other people.

Think about it. Please explain to us how that happens in vaccine naive persons if they aren't getting infected?
 
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I think you misunderstand what is happening here. ..

The main reason that hepatitis B and measles have few variants is because they are DNA viruses which have much lower rates of mutation than RNA viruses.
You always do this, claiming I don't understand :rolleyes: something in the specialty I've been practicing in for the last 30 years!

And when I show you're demonstrably wrong you never say, oh, I learned something new. I'm not perfect and I hope I know when to say, oh, I didn't know that. Trouble is, that is rarely the case when it comes to vaccines and vaccine preventable infections.

[relevant sidetrack] I haven't worked in an ICU since the 80s. We didn't put patients on ventilators prone at that time. Yay, I learned something new from you.... once ;) .[/sidetrack]

So let's get back to this DNA/RNA stuff. It wasn't something I paid attention to before in relation to vaccines as it didn't come up. And it's no wonder given the measles virus is an RNA virus.

Detection of measles RNA in a clinical specimen can provide laboratory confirmation of infection.

Then there is the size variable:
Nature 2008; Rates of evolutionary change in viruses: patterns and determinants
Instead of simplifying the differences by stating that RNA viruses mutate faster than DNA viruses owing to differences in polymerase fidelity, it seems more likely that small viruses mutate faster than large viruses irrespective of the nucleic acid of their genome.
Sort of a wash.


This is the stuff I've been fascinated with in the last decade or so:
Genetic Instability of RNA Viruses
RNA viruses can vary in their ability to tolerate mutations, or “genetic robustness,” and several factors contribute to this. Finally, there is evidence that some RNA viruses exist close to a threshold where polymerase error rate has evolved to maximize the possible sequence space available, while avoiding the accumulation of a lethal load of deleterious mutations. We speculate that different viruses have evolved different error rates to complement the different “life-styles” they possess.
Is evolution fine tuning amazing or what!
 
SARS Cov-2 does not exist anymore. Covid 19 is extinct. We are now in 2023 and many iterations later than that.

We should discuss what we have now, and if it is somehow different than the other viruses that were also once 'novel' and more deadly and then became a common and mostly innocuous illness for healthy populations. ie common cold.
 
SARS Cov-2 does not exist anymore. Covid 19 is extinct. We are now in 2023 and many iterations later than that.

We should discuss what we have now, and if it is somehow different than the other viruses that were also once 'novel' and more deadly and then became a common and mostly innocuous illness for healthy populations. ie common cold.

Just had it 2 weeks back for the first time. 2 days in bed, 40C, terrible throat ache, basically could not swallow, not even water. Not worse than bad case of flu, but not better either. I'm 99% sure I got it on Osaka Airport. It was super crowded and it was 3 days before onset of the symptoms.
I'd agree it's not newsworthy anymore .. but it certainly does exist.
 
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