What Happens to Downtown?

[Myriad]

They would be a minority of office workers, yes. If you meant "displaced highly paid managers" that is what you should have written.

Irrelevent to my point regarding people who are eager to protect themselves and employees from infection at their own workplaces, but unconcerned about doing so at other people's workplaces. But you knew that already, I'm sure.

 

[dann]

Yes, nothing improves productivity more than getting staff and customers infected, spreading the virus with wild abandon! Everybody knows that, don't they?!

Everyone should lock themselves in their houses and never go out. No viruses, and screw the economy and jobs.

A straw man fallacy occurs when someone takes another person’s argument or point, distorts it or exaggerates it in some kind of extreme way, and then attacks the extreme distortion, as if that is really the claim the first person is making.

 

[dann]

...I'm sceptical they [lockdowns!] even did anything to the overall death rate. ...

No reason to be sceptical. They actually did do something to the overall death rate:

Research shows that lockdowns helped control cases in general – but that not all control measures had the same effect.
Did the COVID lockdowns work? Here’s what we know two years on (VaccinesWork, Mar 25, 2022)

My own part of the world, the Nordics. Guess which countries had (short, effective and not at all 'draconian') lockdowns - starting mid-March? And which country didn't ...
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Mar 8 to July 31, 2020)
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Mar 8 to July 31, 2020)
The population density of Denmark is 5-6 times that of Sweden's. Notice how the death toll peaks about three weeks after the lockdowns began. Notice that it takes till June 22 before Sweden's numbers are at the level of Denmark's peak in early April.

Sweden's herd-immunity-by-infection advocates predicted that after Sweden's death toll in the spring and summer of 2020, they would be able to lean back and relax in the fall and winter of 2020-21 because Sweden had now acquired immunity by infection and the other countries would now have to catch up. Some Swedes even looked forward to this in a way that made their Schadenfreude very obvious!
So what actually happened?
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Oct 2, 2020 to May 30, 2021)
Nope. No herd immunity by infection.

And to this day, the other Nordics still haven't 'caught up' with Sweden in spite of abandoning all other pandemic measures than vaccines and instead jumping on the Swedish herd-immunity-by-infecton band wagon (dubbed 'hybrid immunity' or 'super immunity'). But it does make a difference if the virus is let loose on the population prior to vaccinations or if you wait till after everybody has been vaccinated. Even when 'everybody' doesn't include children.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Mar 8, 2020, to Mar 16, 2023)

Only the countries that did actually vaccinate everybody and mandate face masks whenever the numbers are rising too rapidly have actually managed to get the virus under control. Cuba and Singapore are good examples of this.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Jan 2022 -- March 2023)
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people in the last 12 months

I don't think Singapore has a downtown problem, but small businesses didn't come out of the pandemic (if they're out of it!) entirely unscathed.
How Can SMEs Survive the Coronavirus? (MyCareersFuture Singapore, Dec 27, 2023)

 

[Bob001]

.....
This is not just a question of commuters staying in the suburbs and working from home. Many people still avoid restaurants and other public indoor spaces even though the pandemic is supposed to be over. Some of us know that it isn't, no matter how desperately restaurants, cafes and travel agencies tell us that it is.
....

I'm not sure what that's supposed to mean. For most people in most places, life has returned to normal. Lockdowns are over. Kids are back in school. Travel is overwhelming the airlines. Masks are rarely required anywhere. Effective covid vaccines and treatments are available to everyone. Rates of death and hospitalization are down dramatically from the peaks. Covid might never disappear, but it has become something we are living with.

As to the original question, office workers have discovered that they like not spending hours a day commuting, with all the associated expenses, and employers have learned that they don't need to spend big bucks on expensive real estate. That's something that won't change, even if the covid virus suddenly somehow disappears completely.

 

[Steve]

Irrelevent to my point regarding people who are eager to protect themselves and employees from infection at their own workplaces, but unconcerned about doing so at other people's workplaces. But you knew that already, I'm sure.

No, your point as written and explained is that some few people who own "McMansions" are "people who are eager to protect themselves and employees from infection at their own workplaces, but unconcerned about doing so at other people's workplaces." The vast majority of the office workers that you originally disparaged do not fall into that category.

 

[Darat]

Things change.

 

[Myriad]

No, your point as written and explained is that some few people who own "McMansions" are "people who are eager to protect themselves and employees from infection at their own workplaces, but unconcerned about doing so at other people's workplaces." The vast majority of the office workers that you originally disparaged do not fall into that category.

Well, if you insist it is relevant to my point, then yes, the clientele of the Lowes in question was indeed comprised primarily of McMansion dwellers who worked in offices, your uninformed incredulity notwithstanding. This particular store was surrounded by miles of upscale suburban neighborhoods, along with office parks employing middle to upper managers. Just to give you an idea, the public middle school of one of the two adjacent school districts has a planetarium.

 

[Steve]

Well, if you insist it is relevant to my point, then yes, the clientele of the Lowes in question was indeed comprised primarily of McMansion dwellers who worked in offices, your uninformed incredulity notwithstanding. This particular store was surrounded by miles of upscale suburban neighborhoods, along with office parks employing middle to upper managers. Just to give you an idea, the public middle school of one of the two adjacent school districts has a planetarium.

Seems to become a smaller and more trivial group of people every time you write. Gone from "office workers" to "middle managers and executives" to "the local suburban clientele of a particular store". So your original attempt at disparagement of office workers in general goes down as a fail.

I do think it is a rather fascinating neighborhood you describe though, where there are "miles" of homes containing nothing but families of people all employed in management and working locally in office parks. Makes a person wonder who they manage. Sounds like a static version of D. Adams' Ark Fleet Ship B.

ETA and has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of this thread - Downtown. Seems like these managers you describe are totally unfamiliar with downtown.

 

[dann]

I'm not sure what that's supposed to mean.

Read Dr. Keith's post. Maybe that will help you understand what it means.

For most people in most places, life has returned to normal. Lockdowns are over. Kids are back in school. Travel is overwhelming the airlines. Masks are rarely required anywhere. Effective covid vaccines and treatments are available to everyone. Rates of death and hospitalization are down dramatically from the peaks. Covid might never disappear, but it has become something we are living with.

You have indeed missed the point: Pretending that the pandemic is over doesn't mean that it's over. Some people know that. They know about infections and deaths, too, which is why they aren't fooled by 'life having returned to normal'. As for travel being overwhelmed, could this have something to do with it?

Labor shortages made it even harder for airlines to recover from routine events. Overambitious carriers trimmed their packed schedules to give their operations more breathing room. Overwhelmed European hubs capped passenger numbers. Even airline employee travel perks were scaled back.
(...)
Airlines canceled or delayed a greater share of their flights compared with 2019. Thinner staffing levels and training backups meant they had fewer crew members to step in when scheduled employees like pilots reached federally mandated workday limits.
Airlines’ chaotic summer is over. These 5 charts show how it went (CNBC, Sep 9, 2022)

TSA screening lower in 2022 than in 2019, at least until September. See article.

As for the effectiveness of vaccines: They are very good at lowering your risk of dying and getting seriously ill, but they still don't stop you from getting infected. And many people still get seriously ill and die. Lowered risk ≠ no risk. Dr. Keith survived, and since he mentions nether hospitalization nor sequelae, I assume he is one of the lucky ones. Even in children, Covid-19 is the worst killer of all infectious or respiratory diseases:

Findings Among children and young people aged 0 to 19 years in the US, COVID-19 ranked eighth among all causes of deaths, fifth in disease-related causes of deaths (excluding unintentional injuries, assault, and suicide), and first in deaths caused by infectious or respiratory diseases.

The risk is considerably lowered by vaccinating kids, but many countries won't do that. In some countries, parents have to take them abroad to get them vaccinated. Not everybody can afford that.
And some parents just don't want their children to catch and spread the disease. Sometimes because they themselves may be immunocompromised, sometimes because other family members are. (And a few probably still consider the well-being of fellow human beings. Yes, I know!)

Compared with the peaks, the numbers are down, obviously. But 'we are living with it' means that some are dying both with and of it, which influences people's beaviour. So does pretending that it's all over, but obviously not enough, in the opinion of some people, and not enough for downtown to get back to normal, which you seem to be in denial about even though downtown business and transrport was the problem mentioned in the OP.

As to the original question, office workers have discovered that they like not spending hours a day commuting, with all the associated expenses, and employers have learned that they don't need to spend big bucks on expensive real estate. That's something that won't change, even if the covid virus suddenly somehow disappears completely.

And some office workers have discovered that it's a good way to avoid the infection. "If the covid virus suddenly somehow disappears completely," those office workers will return downtown. As long as the pandemic isn't over, they will prefer to work from home.
Does that make it clear? If it doesn't, look at the numbers! I posted a couple of those in this thread.

 

[Myriad]

Seems to become a smaller and more trivial group of people every time you write. Gone from "office workers" to "middle managers and executives" to "the local suburban clientele of a particular store". So your original attempt at disparagement of office workers in general goes down as a fail.

I do think it is a rather fascinating neighborhood you describe though, where there are "miles" of homes containing nothing but families of people all employed in management and working locally in office parks. Makes a person wonder who they manage. Sounds like a static version of D. Adams' Ark Fleet Ship B.

ETA and has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of this thread - Downtown. Seems like these managers you describe are totally unfamiliar with downtown.

Apparently I neglected to mention that the office workers I referred to who enthusiastically shared their kids' and extended families' lung secretions with my wife and her co-workers during lockdown due to their essential need to examine paint shades were ones who lived in the vicinity. I didn't mean to imply they travelled there from downtown, let alone congregated there from across the nation. Nor to imply that I'm in possession of conclusive proof that anything similar along the lines of office workers expressing great concern over their own well-being while exhibiting cavalier unconcern for service workers' well-being might possibly have happened anywhere else. My apologies for being so unclear.

 

[Bob001]

.....
And some office workers have discovered that it's a good way to avoid the infection. "If the covid virus suddenly somehow disappears completely," those office workers will return downtown. As long as the pandemic isn't over, they will prefer to work from home.
.....

Whether or not the pandemic is "over," the fact is that a lot of office workers have discovered that they like working from home. They have even discovered that they can maintain their employment while living anywhere they want, even way outside commuting distance. And employers have discovered that they don't need to pay for class A downtown office space for every employee. I think it's a mistake to imagine that downtowns will thrive again if only the pandemic would end. The economy has changed permanently.

 

[johnny karate]

Things change.

/thread

 

[The Atheist]

So does pretending that it's all over, but obviously not enough, in the opinion of some people, and not enough for downtown to get back to normal, which you seem to be in denial about even though downtown business and transrport was the problem mentioned in the OP.

Utter baloney, as usual.

People are doing nothing to stop the spread of disease, and suggesting anyone is staying home due to covid is nonsense of the highest order.

Those non-existent fraidy cats of which you speak are attending crowded concerts, bars and malls - they're not bothered by covid at all and as noted by others, are enjoying missing the commute and expenses caused by it.

Maybe it's different in your country, but it's an absolute fact that covid is having zero impact on people's behaviour in NZ, apart from care homes desperate to protect their revenue stream.

 

[dann]

As always in denial. Even when people tell The Atheist that they stay at home rather than eat out in order to avoid the virus, he can't accept the fact and prefers to turn it into a story of his own invention, the imaginary "fraidy cats".

I am a part of the problem. Between work and family, I spent close to a thousand dollars a week on average at restaurants in my area through the pandemic, but left for the country when it became possible.

The reasons were many, but the main reason I don’t eat out now is exactly what dann is talking about. I was just sick for close to three weeks despite being fully vaxed and being careful. No steak is worth that.

Why does The Atheist do this? The level of denial is so high that people who avoid public indoor settings because of the virus are described as both non-existent and fraidy cats, and people in any bar, restaurant or movie theatre are seen as proof positive that nobody is avoiding those places. The cognitive dissonance is fascinating: They are non-existent, so when they aren't, they are to be despised because ... The Atheist can't deal with the reality of them.
They need to get out there, to mingle, to spend money, and to make them do so, he comes up with one story after another about how the virus isn't even there anymore, and if it is, it isn't really dangerous, and if people die anyway, they must be over 80 and thus shouldn't even exist.

 

[Brainster]

And some office workers have discovered that it's a good way to avoid the infection. "If the covid virus suddenly somehow disappears completely," those office workers will return downtown. As long as the pandemic isn't over, they will prefer to work from home.

So essentially they are never returning downtown and you think this is a smart decision on their part? Let the cities rot? Things change? If the mass transit systems cut services or fail, whom do you think will feel it more--capitalist overlords or working stiffs?

 

[dann]

Whether or not the pandemic is "over," the fact is that a lot of office workers have discovered that they like working from home. They have even discovered that they can maintain their employment while living anywhere they want, even way outside commuting distance. And employers have discovered that they don't need to pay for class A downtown office space for every employee. I think it's a mistake to imagine that downtowns will thrive again if only the pandemic would end. The economy has changed permanently.

I don't think you noticed the point I was making: That many of those people not returning to downtown do so to avoid an ongoing pandemic. That others will have realized that they'll never want to return because they simply prefer to work from home is not surprising.

As for this:

Travel is overwhelming the airlines. Masks are rarely required anywhere.

I used to go to Southern Europe, the Canaries or Cuba three to four times a year by plane. Since the pandemic, I only went once - to Cuba. I noticed that masks weren't required anywhere on planes or at the airports, which doesn't make me want to start traveling more. I also noticed an awful lot of coughing. But I enjoyed the weeks in Cuba where some people still mask up indoors in spite of a very low level of infections.
I would like to go back, but then there's news like this:

“We are particularly concerned because we have seen an uptick in serious close calls,” Buttigieg said in his opening remarks, referring to a series of near collisions on runways across the US.
After the rare summit, the FAA said discussions about how to prevent incidents at airports ranged from overstressed pilots and flight attendants to better air traffic control technology.
“Pilots and flight attendants expressed concerns that they continue to feel stress in the workplace, including long work hours under adverse conditions,” the FAA said following closed-door meetings. “A primary concern was workforce experience and attrition.”
The summit comes after the FAA said it was investigating another close call between commercial airliners. The most recent close call was at Reagan National Airport near Washington, DC – the seventh since the start of this year.
On March 7, Republic Airways Flight 4736 crossed a runway, without clearance, that United Airlines Flight 2003 was using for takeoff, according to a preliminary review, the FAA said. The United pilot had just been cleared for takeoff, the agency said.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg cites ‘uptick’ in aviation incidents at FAA safety summit reviewing ‘serious close calls’ (CNN, Mar 15, 2023)

Brain fog? The airlines might have been doing better if they hadn't told their passengers that they could stop masking up. I noticed that some flight attendants did wear face masks, but the vast majority of passengers didn't, in particular many of those who had a cough.

 

[dann]

So essentially they are never returning downtown and you think this is a smart decision on their part? Let the cities rot? Things change? If the mass transit systems cut services or fail, whom do you think will feel it more--capitalist overlords or working stiffs?

So you think they should stop thinking of their own health, take one for team capitalism, and go back and get infected? No, I don't think that it would be a smart decision on their part to do so. They are obviously not the ones who pretend that there is no virus. They are not the problem. People who are trying to make them go downtown by lying and minimizing are the ones who are responsible for this mess, and they don't seem to want to do anything about it. All they have to offer is the same old lies.

As for our capitalist overlords, they seem to be very well aware of what could be done and what should be done, so why don't they?

It's called the Davos standard: Coronavirus - World Economy Forum: Here Are All The Covid-19 Precautions At Davos 2023 (Forbes, Jan 20, 2023)

If they want the "working stiffs" to continue to work for them, it's the least they could do.

 

[Brainster]

In the real world, people in downtown Phoenix are not worried about covid, they are busier dodging bullets from the homeless encampment.

Soon there were hundreds of people sleeping within a few blocks of Old Station, most of them suffering from mental illness or substance abuse as they lived out their private lives within public view of the restaurant. They slept on Joe and Debbie’s outdoor tables, defecated behind their back porch, smoked methamphetamine in their parking lot, washed clothes in their bathroom sink, pilfered bread and gallon jars of pickles from their delivery trucks, had sex on their patio, masturbated within view of their employees and lit fires for warmth that burned down palm trees and scared away customers. Finally, Joe and Debbie could think of nothing else to do but to start calling their city councilman, the city manager, the mayor, the governor and the police.

 

[Thermal]

Re: OP: yes, businesses are just now discovering what many of us have known for years: the business model of going to an office for basically no reason whatsoever is kind of stupid and wasteful. Other businesses have formed their business plan based around the aforementioned stupidity and wastefulness. And it seems that they are on track to discover that like a third of their workers are only working to maintain the stupidity and wastefulness , and another third are doing nothing much that needs a human in the first place. In theory, eliminating all this wastefulness should result in a much more streamlined and cost-effective operation that results in lower costs to the end user or consumer. Because that's totally what a corporation would do.

So the resteraunts etc now fact the dilemma that horse and buggy manufacturers faced when cars started rolling out. Move forward and change, or stamp your feet and complain that the way things used to be was more to your wasteful financial benefit.

 

[dann]

In the real world, people in downtown Phoenix are not worried about covid, they are busier dodging bullets from the homeless encampment.

That doesn't sound like #DavosStandard at all. What's good for Davos is good for all. And not just when we are talking C-19.