Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[Michel H]

Those are tainted by association with Russia so they don't count for anything.

Actually, it's the will of the people that matters, and the local people choose their friends the way they like: Russian, Ukrainian or anything they like.

 

[Craig4]

Actually, it's the will of the people that matters, and the local people choose their friends the way they like: Russian, Ukrainian or anything they like.

But we don't know what the local people want because the claims about them were made by Russia. That's even before the orcs engaged in mass murder and kidnapping of locals to Russia. When the orcs are expelled we can worry about what the "local people" want. Until then we don't know because the word of Russia is worthless.

 

[Michel H]

But we don't know what the local people want because the claims about them were made by Russia. That's even before the orcs engaged in mass murder and kidnapping of locals to Russia. When the orcs are expelled we can worry about what the "local people" want. Until then we don't know because the word of Russia is worthless.

There are reliable sources, see for example the red bars in the bar graph of https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...kraine-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-public-opinion/.

One can also take a look at languages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Ukraine.

If really the Ukrainian military could expel Russian forces with massive Western support, the likely result would just be a new civil war in Ukraine.

 

[Craig4]

There are reliable sources, see for example the red bars in the bar graph of https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...kraine-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-public-opinion/.

One can also take a look at languages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Ukraine.

If really the Ukrainian military could expel Russian forces with massive Western support, the likely result would just be a new civil war in Ukraine.

The orcs had occupied that portion of Russia for years by the time the poll happened. It need not detain us. As for a civil war, that's for Ukraine to sort out.

 

[Wildy]

There are reliable sources, see for example the red bars in the bar graph of https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...kraine-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-public-opinion/.

And yet the Washington Post concluded that would there be a proper referendum in the Donbas the most likely result would be remaining in Ukraine.

There is no way that I would believe that Russia would agree to a referendum in that region without it including the entirety of those oblasts.

One can also take a look at languages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Ukraine.

Which doesn't mean anything. Would it be reasonable to think that people from Mariupol would vote to join Russia after what happened to their city at the hands of the Russians?

If really the Ukrainian military could expel Russian forces with massive Western support, the likely result would just be a new civil war in Ukraine.

I doubt that. The evidence of what we're seeing is that the Donbas republics are being stripped of fighting age men by Russia, so should Ukraine be successful there probably won't be enough men available to fight a civil war. A successful reconstruction programme would also create a positive impression of Ukraine among the people there as well, which would erode popular support for a continued insurgency.

 

[Craig4]

What war potential would be left in Donbas once the orcs are expelled? Are the pro Russian forces likely to stay when the Russians leave?

 

[trustbutverify]

https://twitter.com/oxanashevel/status/1603197438084333568

Natalia Nestor, the deputy director of Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise: The body of a seven-year-old girl, she said, was exhumed with seven different traces of sperm inside her corpse, believed to belong to different Russian men.

That is Russia's idea of how to "take good care of the country they are invading", Michel. You should be thoroughly ashamed of yourself for writing that post.

I'm afraid you're barking up the wrong tree. These people are incapable of shame.

 

[trustbutverify]

I suspect some Russian soldiers did these things because they were angry and frustrated.

They gang raped a seven year old girl, and then slaughtered her. Just how low are you prepared to go to protect your wounded ego?

They would probably behave differently as victors.
I don't think there were many cases of rape by Soviet soldiers in East Germany after WWII, from what I have read and watched at least.

I suggest Ukrainian forces capture Moscow and take over Russia. The results would be far superior, with the added advantage of having Russian men who gang rape and butcher infants hung for their crimes.

 

[Aridas]

I don't think that this was poked at, but... Kreminna may be a step or two away from a forced Russian retreat to prevent encirclement. Ukraine's been creeping up around the southeastern side, I think, and may have reclaimed control over part of the northern highway to Svatove.

 

[Wildy]

Depending on weather conditions this winter we'll probably see quite a bit of fighting over the winter. If the Russian ability to supply their troops with equipment is right, there's a good possibility that larger segments of their forces will be ill-equipped for the winter.

I suspect that's why Putin is pressuring Lukashenka into doing something to try and take potential pressure off forces on the front, since Ukraine will have to send military assets along the Belaruisan border instead of sending them to the front. I don't think we'll see an invasion by Belarus because we're in a position where staying more-or-less out of it while letting it weaken Putin would further Lukashenka's goals.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The attacks by Ukraine took place in Donetsk and Luhansk, Kiev sent troops to crush the uprising. Then Vladimir decided to help the breakaway states.

That's not how this disaster started. Russia took advantage of the genuine anti-Maidan feelings of some in Donbas to provoke, arm and support an armed insurgency. They created it, and they (semi)-secretly manned it too. Kiev didn't start randomly shelling places in Donbas.

Those rebels didn't shoot down the MH17 airliner with a rocket they built themselves. Russia provided it.

The "uprising" was a deliberately manufactured causus belli Russia created to justify its invasion and seizure of Ukrainian land.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Lukashenko learning what it's like to be Putin's Puppet.

https://worldcrunch.com/in-the-news/belarus-russia-ukraine-war

Lukashenko is really stuck, if he stays out Putain wil depose him, if he goes in he no longer has an army to stop the people of Belarus from deposing him.

Too good for him I say.

Of course Putain is stupid trying to push Lukashenko, why put an ally/puppet into a lose lose situation and make your only secure border hostile?

 

[Craig4]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-december-ukrainian-military-repelled-russian-attacks-near

Live Map shows Ukraine repelling attacks along the whole of the Eastern Russian axis of advance. With these massed attacks, I think the US should reconsider the decision to not give Ukraine cluster munitions. We should add a caveat that they only be used on Ukrainian territory (including those portions occupied since 2014 of course).

Cluster munitions could destroy entire formations of Russians and hasten the end of the war. Using them on their own territory should be a risk management decision for the Ukrainians.

 

[jimbob]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-december-ukrainian-military-repelled-russian-attacks-near

Live Map shows Ukraine repelling attacks along the whole of the Eastern Russian axis of advance. With these massed attacks, I think the US should reconsider the decision to not give Ukraine cluster munitions. We should add a caveat that they only be used on Ukrainian territory (including those portions occupied since 2014 of course).

Cluster munitions could destroy entire formations of Russians and hasten the end of the war. Using them on their own territory should be a risk management decision for the Ukrainians.

ATCAMS or other longer range weapons would be more appropriate in my opinion.

And an agreement to allow Ukraine to hit Russian logistics hubs and other military targets inside Russia or Belarus.

Not that I disagree with providing cluster munitions with the caveats you propose either.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I believe it would be very much in the interest of Ukraine to accept those terms because this might end this war which is so painful to them (think about the strikes on the energy infrastructure, for example), and because they would recover all of the territory conquered from them by Russia since February 24.

So I think, this is a good deal for Ukraine, and it may also protect all of us from a risk of nuclear war.

From a democratic viewpoint, it seems that Crimea and the two people's republics (Donetsk and Luhansk) are pro-Russian, so the democratic principles are winning too.

Again, you know those votes were not free and fair right? Like, you are aware that the "pro-Russia" elements are not the majority?

 

[SpitfireIX]

One can also take a look at languages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Ukraine.

Zelensky is a native Russian speaker. The fact that "native Russian speaker" does not equal "Russia supporter" has been explained to you several times; why do you keep pretending it does?

 

[Arcade22]

Actually, it's the will of the people that matters, and the local people choose their friends the way they like: Russian, Ukrainian or anything they like.

The will of the people, as determined by armed thugs and bandits acting on the orders of another country. Truly the height of democracy.

 

[Michel H]

Zelensky is a native Russian speaker. The fact that "native Russian speaker" does not equal "Russia supporter" has been explained to you several times; why do you keep pretending it does?

I am not saying that being a Russian speaker in Ukraine automatically means that you are a supporter of Russia, but this is nevertheless a factor which must be taken into account, and probable partially explains some people's opinions.

Human Rights Watch explained recently (January 19, 2022):

New Language Requirement Raises Concerns in Ukraine
The Law Needs Safeguards to Protect Minorities’ Language Rights

A new legal provision on the use of the Ukrainian language, part of a broader state language law, raises concerns about protection for minority languages.

The provision, which entered into force on January 16, is stipulated in article 25 of the law. It requires print media outlets registered in Ukraine to publish in Ukrainian. Publications in other languages must also be accompanied by a Ukrainian version, equivalent in content, volume, and method of printing.
...
The state language law requires that Ukrainian be used in most aspects of public life.

(https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine)

This language law has the consequence that Russian speakers in Ukraine are obviously not feeling free, and may want to support some extremist politicians, or may want that their region be absorbed by Russia.

It's understandable.

 

[Michel H]

When I read your posts, I get the impression that most of you are convinced that that it is the Russians (and Putin especially) who created most of the trouble (uprising, civil war ...) in Ukraine, with a goal of territorial expansion.

However, we know that Russia does already have a very large territory, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Morover, the wikipedia article on the Donetsk People's Republic explains:

On 6 April, the group's leaders announced that a referendum on whether Donetsk Oblast should "join the Russian Federation", would take place "no later than May 11th, 2014."[45] Additionally, the group's leaders appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to send Russian peacekeeping forces to the region.[45][46]
...
On 7 May, Russian president Vladimir Putin asked the separatists to postpone the proposed referendum to create the necessary conditions for dialogue. Despite Putin's comments, the Donetsk Republic group said they would still carry out the referendum.[59]

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic).

Here we see that, contrary to the usual Western narrative, the current president of Russia played a moderating role in 2014.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

When I read your posts, I get the impression that most of you are convinced that that it is the Russians (and Putin especially) who created most of the trouble (uprising, civil war ...) in Ukraine, with a goal of territorial expansion.

However, we know that Russia does already have a very large territory, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Morover, the wikipedia article on the Donetsk People's Republic explains:

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic).

Here we see that, contrary to the usual Western narrative, the current president of Russia played a moderating role in 2014.

Sure, just because they are armed by Russia, can shelter in Russia and were of no import until the Russian puppet in Ukraine was ousted, they *might* not be Russian puppets.

It's not like Putin has lied about anything in this case ever.

With regards to your much touted 'neutrality' if Ukraine had joined NATO in 2014 Russia would never have dared to attack the Crimea and this war could have been avoided.