Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

God, bitcoin is becoming just like a religion..true believers just ignore facts and reality.
It's a libertarian fantasy that some people managed to use as a scam.
 
dudalb said:
God, bitcoin is becoming just like a religion..true believers just ignore facts and reality.
It's a libertarian fantasy that some people managed to use as a scam.
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I simply don't understand it, but Bitcoin (and to a lesser extent other cryptocurrencies) seem to have significant resilience in their value. It could all be a bubble and/or a scam but if it is, it does seem to be a persistent one.

Perhaps there are enough actual uses for Bitcoin to allow its value to be supported. Some of those uses may not be strictly legal, but other do appear to be so.

Despite risking missing out on huge returns by going long (or short depending on your view) on Bitcoin, I'm not willing to risk my hard-earned because I simply do not understand the market at all. Others might say that the stock market is exactly the same and that I'm fooling myself by thinking that the value of some (many ? most ?) stocks is underpinned by sound financial reasoning.
 
Warren Buffet said he gets in enough trouble with markets he thinks he understands without attempting a market he does not understand.
 
The Don said:
I simply don't understand it, but Bitcoin (and to a lesser extent other cryptocurrencies) seem to have significant resilience in their value. It could all be a bubble and/or a scam but if it is, it does seem to be a persistent one.
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It is more like a series of bubbles rather than just one bubble. The cycles seem to last 1 to 3 years.

There is no reason to believe that another big bubble isn't on the cards. Of course, you wouldn't want to stake your "hard earned" on this prospect but if your investment budget includes "rough chances" then cryptos might well be part of the mix.
 
The Don said:
Perhaps there are enough actual uses for Bitcoin to allow its value to be supported. Some of those uses may not be strictly legal, but other do appear to be so.
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Perhaps you can explain what legal uses there are for bitcoin, particularly practical ones that aren't already performed better by banks?
 
wareyin said:
That's correct. It's a shame you've only presented snarky one-liners rather than a well argued case, but there we are.
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When you can explain how a country like El Salvador using bitcoin as a currency doesn't constitute a "legitimate" use of bitcoin or what relationship a 400 year old fad that lasted only a few months has to do with bitcoin then we may be able to move beyond the one liners.
 
psionl0 said:
When you can explain how a country like El Salvador using bitcoin as a currency doesn't constitute a "legitimate" use of bitcoin or what relationship a 400 year old fad that lasted only a few months has to do with bitcoin then we may be able to move beyond the one liners.
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That's the El Salvador that because of using bitcoin as currency is in free fall economically, and is looking like they might have to have China buy off their debt? Yeah, that's totally a great example of a legitimate use for bitcoin: going bankrupt because you bought it.


The relationship a 400 year old fad that lasted only a few months has to bitcoin is...just blindingly obvious. Paying for something of no real value because you think you can sell it to the next guy for more real value. Financial bubble. Once people realize that they got caught up in a fad and bitcoin has no actual value or utility, a bunch of people lose a bunch of money.
 
wareyin said:
Perhaps you can explain what legal uses there are for bitcoin, particularly practical ones that aren't already performed better by banks?
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AIUI (but IUI poorly :o) the fees associated with international transfers, especially in multiple currencies, involving Bitcoin may be lower than with conventional bank-based transfers. I know that the bank took a significant chunk of my father's social security payment in fees and exchange rate relative to the spot rate converting it from Dollars to Pounds.

Bitcoin can be an easily used hedge against one's own currency (though obviously Bitcoin itself is very volatile). For example, well over 80% of Mrs Don and my net worth is denominated in GBP. If the pound were to collapse we'd be in poor shape. OTOH it's difficult for a UK resident to have significant holdings in denominated in other currencies - especially after Brexit.

That said, I have no current intention of using Bitcoin. Its value is far too volatile and I don't understand what underpins that value, using it seems opaque and complicated (though that may simply be because I haven't learned enough about it) and the sorts of people who are most vocally advocating for its use in the media aren't the sorts of people I would trust to help me make financial decisions.
 
Using bitcoin is not why it's famous. It's famous because people made huge returns in the past.
IMHO it's not useful tool .. but neither it is useless nonsense, much less scam. It's a game.
 
wareyin said:
Perhaps you can explain what legal uses there are for bitcoin, particularly practical ones that aren't already performed better by banks?
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Just because someone wants to avoid the banks because of privacy issues or whatnot doesn't mean they are doing anything illegal. They can pay taxes, etc. on all of that but just don't trust the banks and government to not get up in their business.

That case for bitcoin seems obvious. That if we removed the speculation from bitcoin that these uses would probably cause bitcoin's value to drop to more like $10 likewise. It's an interesting idea and niche tool that has been hijacked by speculators.

The problem isn't finding the use case for bitcoin as much as it is that this should be a far more esoteric and obscure issue than it is. It's a different issue when the thing is $10.
 
wareyin said:
That's the El Salvador that because of using bitcoin as currency is in free fall economically, and is looking like they might have to have China buy off their debt? Yeah, that's totally a great example of a legitimate use for bitcoin: going bankrupt because you bought it.
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I didn't say it was a good idea but you asked for examples of a "non-criminal utility for bitcoin". Are you going to argue that those hundreds of thousands of El Salvadorians using bitcoin are criminals?

wareyin said:
The relationship a 400 year old fad that lasted only a few months has to bitcoin is...just blindingly obvious. Paying for something of no real value because you think you can sell it to the next guy for more real value. Financial bubble. Once people realize that they got caught up in a fad and bitcoin has no actual value or utility, a bunch of people lose a bunch of money.
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The tulip bubble ran once and never again. OTOH bitcoin bubbles keep coming one after another, have been doing so for more than a decade and there is no suggestion that the bubbles will ever end. You would have to be extremely desperate to suggest that they have any similarity to each other at all.
 
Mike! said:
I have a strong urge to trademark the name, "PhantomCash" for some reason.
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That's not fair really. Bitcoin is much better protected and saved than typical cash records in a bank. It's better decentralized, it's more open, it cannot be modified by individual, it does not depend on any organization.
Obviously, exchanges are another thing entirely .. :D
 
psionl0 said:
I didn't say it was a good idea but you asked for examples of a "non-criminal utility for bitcoin". Are you going to argue that those hundreds of thousands of El Salvadorians using bitcoin are criminals?
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I'll argue that it was criminal to force them to do so, as the predicted and predictable outcome was bitcoin losing its value and their "money" becoming worthless. And most El Salvadorians agree: "Just 17% said the Bitcoin rollout had been a success, while 66% said it was a failure. And 77% want Bukele to stop using public funds to buy Bitcoin."

psionl0 said:
The tulip bubble ran once and never again. OTOH bitcoin bubbles keep coming one after another, have been doing so for more than a decade and there is no suggestion that the bubbles will ever end. You would have to be extremely desperate to suggest that they have any similarity to each other at all.
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So because the first bubble only ran once, these cyclical bubbles aren't bubbles? Do you read what you type?
 
wareyin said:
So because the first bubble only ran once, these cyclical bubbles aren't bubbles? Do you read what you type?
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You obviously don't. I never said that "bubbles aren't bubbles".

Face it, there is no similarity between bitcoin and the tulip mania whatsoever.
 
psionl0 said:
You obviously don't. I never said that "bubbles aren't bubbles".

Face it, there is no similarity between bitcoin and the tulip mania whatsoever.
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Except the fact that tulip mania and bitcoin are both bubbles? And the fact that a bunch of people bought Tulips for vastly more than they were worth in the hopes of selling them for even more to the next person who came along, just like bitcoin? And the fact that both bubbles have burst, causing people who spent money on worthless things on the advice of those who make claims like "if you hold bitcoin long enough you are guaranteed to make money" to actually lose money?
 
What is novel about crypto is an abstract thing that cogent argument can see it near infinity or zero.
I am trying to think of an analogy, and maybe brand in marketing is it.
G
 
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