Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

psionl0 said:
Sure lots of people have lost on bitcoin because they bought high then panicked when the price started falling. This is a common strategy for lots of amateur investors.
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If you don't think the price will ever go up past the point that you are selling at, or you need the money for something useful, then it is the perfectly rational thing to do. They gambled, lost and took the loss. Nothing to do with amateurism - loads of institutional investors have lost plenty.

Yeah, you might think the price might go up at some point and hold. It's just speculation however, not some kind of wise investment strategy.
 
Someone just defined Crypto as Libertarians defrauding other Libertarians. Sounds pretty close to the truth for me.
Not that rhis will change the minds of members of the Crypto cult.It has become a matter of pure faith to beleive in Crypto.
 
dudalb said:
Someone just defined Crypto as Libertarians defrauding other Libertarians. Sounds pretty close to the truth for me. Not that this will change the minds of members of the Crypto cult. It has become a matter of pure faith to believe in Crypto.
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I'm not sure that's the case currently. Perhaps in the past. See this post I made where I was surprised that in the USA, minorities were more likely to have crypto than whites. This is fairly characteristic of too many end stage bubbles. Like the 2008 home mortgage where one needed almost no credit or income docs to get a variable rate mortgage or re-fi. Because, hey, house prices always went up! Right!!

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=13924919&postcount=2778

Here's a running list of all (questionable) things crypto and web3. Damn it sure is long. Really long.

https://web3isgoinggreat.com/

It really is the Wild, Wild, Wild West. Like no one's ever seen before. (to steal a phrase from DJT)
 
psionl0 said:
It is a strategy that has worked every single time somebody has employed it in the past.
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I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit?

That is evidently not true.
 
FatherLukeduke said:
I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit?
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Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing.

The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later. I'm not saying that this proves that the price will exceed $60K at some point but the odds seem good.

It wasn't so long ago that a poster wanted me to be hung, drawn and quartered because I refused to rule out the possibility that the price of bitcoin could reach $20K (it came just short in December 2017). Needless to say, this person is not posting on this thread any more.
 
I my case I'll stay with stocks until interest rates rise above five percent
and then as they rise to ten percent I will get out of stocks entirely. When
interest rates fall bellow five percent I will sell my bonds and begin buying
stocks again. It's not a good strategy as it doesn't consider things like
commodities, but based upon past history I think I will do fine.


What To Consider When Investing In Crypto by Fidelity Viewpoints


Before you invest, get educated on the ins and outs of this fast-growing
industry. For example, you should be able to explain the value of blockchain
technology and decentralization to friends and family.
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psionl0 said:
Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing.

The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later.
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"Up to the beginning of the year" is not the same as "Every single time", as you stated. But anyway, yes, the market was rising, then it fell.

I'm not saying that this proves that the price will exceed $60K at some point but the odds seem good.
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Financial products in the UK come with the warning "Past performance is not indicative of future results", or something on those lines.

Bitcoin's peak came during a period of almost unprecedented asset inflation. Years of central banks printing money like it was going out of fashion, historically low interest rates, federal handouts, a global properly bubble, a tech bubble and US stock market bubble. All this is unwinding now, and it's very difficult to see speculative assets like bitcoin getting pumped again any time soon.

Not to mention what a toxic image crypto has now developed.
 
psionl0 said:
This "bigger fool theory" is just crap.
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There's no point in making that assertion because the bigger fool "theory" is factually true: the only way to make money on Bitcoin (unless you are a miner) is to get somebody else to give you more money for your Bitcoin holdings than you paid for it. That is all there is to it.

Bitcoin is traded on the open market just like any other commodity or collectable. Further more, unlike collectables (like used stamps), bitcoin has utility.
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As I understand it, stamp collectors prefer unused or "mint condition" stamps.

Some people get aesthetic pleasure out of collecting things. Not all stamp collectors - in fact, perhaps not even a majority - collect stamps as an investment vehicle. So yes, stamps have utility - not just for paying postage.

Sure lots of people have lost on bitcoin because they bought high then panicked when the price started falling. This is a common strategy for lots of amateur investors.
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Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin.
 
psionl0 said:
Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing.

The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later.
Click to expand...

No this is false. The price chart only shows what the next Bitcoin sold will get. It does not mean that, when the price was $60k everybody could sell and get $60k per Bitcoin.
 
jeremyp said:
Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin.
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Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.
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I keep seeing estimates of leakage, where bitcoin wallets have been lost, of between 10 and 20 percent of bitcoin.

Following up on that, just noticed an article about a company that performs brute force attacks on wallets for people who have lost/forgotten their passwords.

That company says: "...approximately half the wallets we open are empty."

I'm now wondering how the user could tell the difference?
(i.e. How do they know that the company hasn't cracked their wallet and stolen the loot?)

Perhaps the user receives the recovered keys and wallet ID/address, and there is a method to demonstrate that the wallet has been emptied over time via normal usage by running those keys against the blockchain.

Edited to add:

Aha! If you do get your wallet address back, you can track all transactions from that wallet:

https://gocardless.com/en-us/guides/posts/bitcoin-transaction-verification/
 
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