Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Jun 19, 2003
- Messages
- 61,663
My problems with that are several.
Firstly, Musk doesn't run SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell runs SpaceX. Musk provides some vision and helps to raise capital but the day to day running is done by her. The engineering, on the other hand, is done by talented engineers, of which Musk isn't one.
Yes, he's not an engineer, and he's not doing the engineering. But picking the right people is a skill, and you have to be smart to do it right. He did it right with SpaceX, in spades.
Secondly, we don't know how successful SpaceX really is because it's a private company. It's doing very well in the space launch market in terms of volume but we don't know how profitable each launch is.
The volume alone is incredible. That's success. Regular re-use is a success, and we know they do that too. Yeah, we don't know their margins, but I don't think we need to in order to know that SpaceX is successful.
Thirdly, there are two current projects that each may sink SpaceX: Starship and Starlink. Starship is currently going nowhere very fast. They were supposed to be sending two of them to Mars in 2022, but so far, it hasn't even flown.
Musk's timelines are bull ****. I don't believe in them, I don't care about them, and I also don't judge by them.
But compare Starship to SLS. It's ahead. And SLS was supposed to be the fast budget option because it would re-use existing engines.
The business case for Starlink was always questionable and if the numbers Musk gave to the government with respect to the Ukraine dishes are correct
Why would you expect them to be? Those are going to be an opening offer, nothing more.
I think Musk knows he made a big mistake in agreeing to buy Twitter.
That's certainly possible. But again, being smart doesn't preclude making big mistakes, and making a big mistake doesn't preclude being smart.