How do we know a pandemic's over?

[lobosrul5]

We're nine months in to the year and I'm not even sure your six month number is right. We're past 225,000 deaths this year in the US.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/225000-americans-died-covid-19-start-2022-viral/story?id=90339579

Note that I clarified in a later post that Covid is already in the number three position, not just potentially as I said in the earlier post of mine.

We're currently seeing 350 deaths a day. Which at that rate would be 127000 dead a year. Below the following:

Heart disease: 696,962
Cancer: 602,350
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 200,955
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 160,264
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 152,657
Alzheimer’s disease: 134,242

Of course we don't know for certain if the COVID death rate will continue dropping or surge in the fall/winter.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

We're currently seeing 350 deaths a day. Which at that rate would be 127000 dead a year. Below the following:

Heart disease: 696,962
Cancer: 602,350
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 200,955
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 160,264
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 152,657
Alzheimer’s disease: 134,242

Of course we don't know for certain if the COVID death rate will continue dropping or surge in the fall/winter.

I'm not sure what you and The Atheist are thinking. It doesn't matter what the current rate is. We're 9 months in to the year and there are already more than 200,955 (The "Accidents" category in your table). About 25,000 more. Even if Covid stops entirely today Covid is sill already in the number 3 slot unless something goes really out of whack with some other category in the next 3 months. No matter how low the rate goes it can't start raising people from the dead.

Right?

 

[lobosrul5]

I'm not sure what you and The Atheist are thinking. It doesn't matter what the current rate is. We're 9 months in to the year and there are already more than 200,955 (The "Accidents" category in your table). About 25,000 more. Even if Covid stops entirely today Covid is sill already in the number 3 slot unless something goes really out of whack with some other category in the next 3 months. No matter how low the rate goes it can't start raising people from the dead.

Right?

Umm you missed my point... I think? The number of deaths early in 2022 was roughly 5 to 6 times than what it is now. COVID deaths plummeted by spring and have remained relatively low, that skews the data, unless we go back to those kind of figures in the fall. The number of people dying of those other causes is pretty much static. If you divide those causes of death by 365 you'd find that 1900 people a day are dying of heart disease,

Here is California data showing that the death rate is .7 per million for the vaccinated. Thats .07 for 100,000. While the death rate for just heart disease is 211 per 100,000.... 3,000 times higher.

https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/#latest-update

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

So, if you're trying to make the point that Covid may not be number 3 next year I get it. But you agree Covid is already locked in to number 3 for this year, correct?

Umm you missed my point... I think? The number of deaths early in 2022 was roughly 5 to 6 times than what it is now. COVID deaths plummeted by spring and have remained relatively low, that skews the data, unless we go back to those kind of figures in the fall.

It doesn't skew it for the purpose I'm using. It skews it improperly if you are trying to calculate a current average to make a prediction. But it you are trying to calculate the total for this calendar year as I was then leaving them out skews the data improperly.

 

[lobosrul5]

So, if you're trying to make the point that Covid may not be number 3 next year I get it. But you agree Covid is already locked in to number 3 for this year, correct?

Yes, I just think current daily averages are far more important in making pandemic policy decisions. Now then, if the CDC has models showing COVID deaths dramatically rising to levels in February or March of this year then thats different. My odds of going out and getting very sick or dying right now is more important than what it was in February. If my odds of dying from COVID is REALLY just .7 per million (Cali DOH numbers) then I'm just not going to be very concerned about it.

ETA: but their chart showed a low of .2 per million early this year. So is it rising because there are no restrictions, or is it because immunity from the original vaccine and boosters are wearing off?

 

[marting]

So yeah, agreed, depending on local conditions, depending on one's individual situation, depending on all of that, it isn't as if no-pandemic translates into letting it all hang out now. (Although unfortunately that's exactly what seems to be actually happening, by and large, at this point. Let's just hope this doesn't come back and bite us!)

Bob Wachter, head of UC San Fran Medical, nerds out about exactly this. Discusses his risk calculation and how he determines whether it's safe to eat indoors at a restuarant w/o masks and where and when to mask up. His calculations gives great weight to risk of long covid more than serious disease/death after reviewing the most current papers and in light of his wife's long covid which is mostly reverted after 6 months but some still remains.

He goes into considerable, and very nerdy detail on his thinking in earlier threads.

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1574482749817167872

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

Yes, I just think current daily averages are far more important in making pandemic policy decisions.

Yeah, I totally agree with that. You'll note I didn't say anything about pandemic policy decisions.

 

[Chanakya]

We're currently seeing 350 deaths a day. Which at that rate would be 127000 dead a year. Below the following:

Heart disease: 696,962
Cancer: 602,350
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 200,955
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 160,264
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 152,657
Alzheimer’s disease: 134,242

Of course we don't know for certain if the COVID death rate will continue dropping or surge in the fall/winter.

I think the comparison with deaths from heart disease, and cancer, and accidents, and stroke, and Alzheimers --- all of the above, bar possibly lung disease, or at least a subset of it --- is dodgy.

The thing is, the Corona virus is infectious. Those others aren't. That for one.

And in any case, the corona virus thing is over and above the rest. That is, if we got a Venn, I guess there'd technically be a sliver of commonality in there, not as if the intersection is entirely zero I guess, but that's just a technicality. For all practical purposes this one's an addition, an extra.

So that, even if it turns out Corona virus is at #7, say, that's still nothing to sneeze at. It isn't as if this thing gets taken seriously only if it is at #1!



eta: Not saying that's what you're arguing, exactly the opposite, I think. This kind of complements your argument I suppose, adds to it I guess.

etaa: Just read through your other posts, so maybe not? (My ETA above, I mean to say.) Whatever, either way.

 

[The Atheist]

We're nine months in to the year and I'm not even sure your six month number is right.

It is, I gave you the link showing the exact details.

Note that I clarified in a later post that Covid is already in the number three position, not just potentially as I said in the earlier post of mine.

We're working at cross purposes.

When looking at whether the pandemic is over, what happened in the past isn't relevant when the current situation is vastly different.

 

[lobosrul5]

I think the comparison with deaths from heart disease, and cancer, and accidents, and stroke, and Alzheimers --- all of the above, bar possibly lung disease, or at least a subset of it --- is dodgy.

The thing is, the Corona virus is infectious. Those others aren't. That for one.

And in any case, the corona virus thing is over and above the rest. That is, if we got a Venn, I guess there'd technically be a sliver of commonality in there, not as if the intersection is entirely zero I guess, but that's just a technicality. For all practical purposes this one's an addition, an extra.

So that, even if it turns out Corona virus is at #7, say, that's still nothing to sneeze at. It isn't as if this thing gets taken seriously only if it is at #1!



eta: Not saying that's what you're arguing, exactly the opposite, I think. This kind of complements your argument I suppose, adds to it I guess.

etaa: Just read through your other posts, so maybe not? (My ETA above, I mean to say.) Whatever, either way.

Its not necessarily dodgy depending on what the purpose of the comparison is. If Cali DOH figures are right and my odds of dying from COVID in a year are really just .07 per 100k per year as a vaccinated person, then its irrelevant for my decision making. Its basically negligible compared to common causes of death. Also, I can't find odds of contracting long COVID which indeed might influence my decisions.

 

[Warp12]

Pretty much over in the US. Worldometer is showing 1% fatality, which is obviously heavily weighted to the early period of the pandemic. In my state, under 25 deaths per day, out of a population of over 8 million.

My doctor's office still requires a mask. I have no issue with that. Otherwise, I don't wear one or take any other precautions. Triple-vaxxed.

 

[marting]

Its not necessarily dodgy depending on what the purpose of the comparison is. If Cali DOH figures are right and my odds of dying from COVID in a year are really just .07 per 100k per year as a vaccinated person, then its irrelevant for my decision making. Its basically negligible compared to common causes of death. Also, I can't find odds of contracting long COVID which indeed might influence my decisions.

Agree that would be negligible. For a California population of about 40M assuming 90% vax rate, that comes out to 25 per year or just over 2 vaxxed, covid-19 deaths per month in Calif.

It isn't true.

 

[The Atheist]

'Straya hasn't declared the pandemic over, they've just removed all the rules: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-63084976

 

[dann]

Reality Check

March 25, 2022:

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

Since the start of omicron, we've [NZ] had an official 11% of the population infected, and I'm going to err way on the side of caution and say the true numbers are 20%, or 1M cases. (I believe it's more like 40%, using absence numbers at schools and workplaces)

Of that million infections, we've never had over 1000 in hospital, with numbers dropping right now, and maximum 40 in ICU. Deaths are listed at 192, but that is all deaths where covid has been present within 28 days of death. The number confirmed to be as a result of covid is a whopping 43.

It's now abundantly clear that post-vaccination omicron is a very minor issue. The people dying have almost exclusively been very frail people, or as my Aussie mate says, people whose toe tags had already been printed. 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.

Barring a new variant of concern, the pandemic is done and dusted.

I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, March 25 to Dec 27:
Mar 25, 2022: 273
Dec 27, 2022: 2,331

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, 2022: 2,283 (Covid-19 deaths from Jan 1 to Feb 19, 2022: 5 (five!)).

Man, they must have had an awful lot of flu deaths this year to make 2,283 a much lower number than that!
By the way, the whole point of face masks is to 'delay the inevitable'! In combianation with vaccines, they are quite good at that.

As for flu:

Research by the University of Otago, Wellington, has found that influenza kills about 500 New Zealanders each year, making it probably New Zealand’s biggest single infectious disease killer.
Flu a major killer (University of Otago Magazine)

But Covid-19 has turned flu into a (relatively) minor killer:

University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said while Covid-19 does share some similarities with influenza, it's had a more severe impact on New Zealanders than influenza usually does.
More than 2000 people died this year with Covid-19 identified as the underlying or contributing cause of death. Over the past 30 years an average of 695 people a year died due to influenza or pneumonia. Since 1991 the highest number of deaths attributed to influenza or pneumonia in a single year was 1197 and the lowest was 382.
As well as killing more people than influenza, Covid-19 put more people in hospital this year than influenza did in a typical year.
(...)
"It's far more severe," Baker said, and it could be shaping up to be our second biggest killer.
(...)
As well as being a bigger killer than many diseases, Covid-19 deaths were also higher than this year's current road toll and 2019's suspected suicides.
(...)
"I think what we're missing at the moment in New Zealand is a very clear strategy which says, actually, our goal is both to reduce the rate of infections and the consequences."
Covid-19 vs the flu: Death rates compared (RNZ.co.nz, Dec 23, 2022)

Hospitalizations 2022
Flu: 5,087
Covid-19: 20,516

Baker also mentions road deaths and suicides:

As well as being a bigger killer than many diseases, Covid-19 deaths were also higher than this year's current road toll and 2019's suspected suicides.

New Zealand road deaths in 2022: 373 - a little more than the average of recent years and yet no comparison to the SARS-CoV-2 death toll.

 

[dann]

Agree that would be negligible. For a California population of about 40M assuming 90% vax rate, that comes out to 25 per year or just over 2 vaxxed, covid-19 deaths per month in Calif.

It isn't true.

According to Google:

Statistics
Vaccinations
From Our World in Data · Last reported: 2 days ago
California, USA
At least 1 dose 84,9 %
Fully vaccinated 74,9 %

 

[marting]

Its not necessarily dodgy depending on what the purpose of the comparison is. If Cali DOH figures are right and my odds of dying from COVID in a year are really just .07 per 100k per year as a vaccinated person, then its irrelevant for my decision making. Its basically negligible compared to common causes of death. Also, I can't find odds of contracting long COVID which indeed might influence my decisions.

The error here is that .07 per 100k death rate is not per year, it's daily. And a majority of those deaths are among those fully vaccinated. Unlike in China where vaccination rates are higher among younger people, in the USA they are higher amongst the elderly. This error reduces expected death rates by 1/365 and is why I made this post in response:

Agree that would be negligible. For a California population of about 40M assuming 90% vax rate, that comes out to 25 per year or just over 2 vaxxed, covid-19 deaths per month in Calif.

It isn't true.

Effective vax rate here, adjusted for risk of death, is around 90%.

 

[dann]

Maybe the sign will be that we stop seeing headlines like these several times a year:
New versions of Omicron are masters of immune evasion (Science, May 10, 2022)
Japanese Study Finds That BQ.1.1 Variant Has Enhanced Binding Affinity to Human ACE2 Receptor and Greater Fusogenicity than B.A.5! (Thailand Medical News, Dec 10, 2022)
From the Thailand article:

Their detailed phylogenetic and epidemic dynamic analyses suggest that Omicron sub variants independently increased their viral fitness by acquiring the convergent substitutions. Particularly, BQ.1.1, which harbors all five convergent substitutions, shows the highest fitness among the viruses investigated.
Worryingly, neutralization assays show that BQ.1.1 is more resistant to breakthrough BA.2/5 infection sera than BA.5.
Furthermore, the BQ.1.1 spike exhibits enhanced binding affinity to human ACE2 receptor and greater fusogenicity than the BA.5 spike.

A Danish article, Ny variant driver coronasmitten ved at undvige immunitet – også fra de nye vacciner (TV2.dk, Jan 1, 2023: New variant drives the corona transmission by evading immunity), says that "according to an American expert, BQ.1.1 is actually so contagious that it is close to being at the level of measles, which is considered to be the world's most contagious virus."

 

[Roger Ramjets]

It's now abundantly clear that post-vaccination omicron is a very minor issue. The people dying have almost exclusively been very frail people, or as my Aussie mate says, people whose toe tags had already been printed. 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.
I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, 2022: 2,283 (Covid-19 deaths from Jan 1 to Feb 19, 2022: 5 (five!)).

Man, they must have had an awful lot of flu deaths this year to make 2,283 a much lower number than that!

You misunderstand. The Atheist said 'going to be much lower than that'. Who knows, he may be right - some day.

By the way, the whole point of face masks is to 'delay the inevitable'! In combination with vaccines, they are quite good at that.

New Zealand scrapped their mask mandate on September 12. But the death rate from covid rose dramatically long before that, corresponding to lifting lockdowns because the virus had mutated to a form that was unstoppable. Since the mask mandate was 'retired' (except in medical facitilies and retirement homes, where they really should be used all the time anyway) the infection rate has slowly climbed, but nowhere near where it got to at the height of Omicron. Most of the deaths occurred during the period when Omicron 'escaped' into the wider community, and they were almost all old frail people like The Atheist said (a real tragedy for sure, but what can you do with a variant that's unstoppable? Even China has had to concede...).

Yes, masks work - but with the current strains they don't work well enough to make much of a difference. Vaccinations are more important. Unfortunately New Zealand has not managed to achieve the vaccination levels it could have. I suspect this is due to people thinking the pandemic was over so they didn't need boosters.

It's not over yet. However I think it probably will be by the end of this year. Covid is becoming the new 'flu. Eventually the death rate will reach similar levels.

Maybe the sign will be that we stop seeing headlines like these several times a year:

I think we will be seeing signs like this for a long time to come. But unlike before we will jump on them fast. You will get a booster to ward off the latest variants, just we get a 'flu shot every year. We are not going to see the true pandemic numbers of before. The virus will have become endemic.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

....
Yes, masks work - but with the current strains they don't work well enough to make much of a difference. ...

Given that the data supporting the effectiveness of masks when worn by the person shedding virus was ignored for months as people not looking at the research relied on their bias confirmation that respiratory viruses were droplet spread, I'd like to see some hard data that masks are ineffective against newer variants of COVID.

Not saying it isn't true but it seems to me that mask burnout coincided with new variants and I'm not sure those two variables were sorted out.

 

[The Atheist]

Vaccinations are more important. Unfortunately New Zealand has not managed to achieve the vaccination levels it could have. I suspect this is due to people thinking the pandemic was over so they didn't need boosters.

^Opinion.

Reality: One of the highest rates of boosters in the world, 3.5 times the world average; considerably higher than USA & UK.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...rica~CAN~PRT~POL~Scotland~ZAF~GRC~GBR~KWT~JPN