The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Klimax]

BTW: 37th strike against Chornobaevka...

 

[jimbob]

Difficult to know, isn't it.

Apparently Dugin's daughter was also a public figure. Is she someone who could have plausibly been seen as a threat to Putin? If so, maybe that might suggest Putin had her assassinated.

On the other hand, it could have been other Russian groups, or someone aiming for Dugin, or of course Ukrainian groups who wanted to get to Putin allies if they couldn't get directly to Putin.

It's pretty horrible, whoever did it and whatever the motive.

Well she is now a good Nazi, even though it's a bit of a pity her father wasn't driving, which is what it seems he had intended to.

She was a bad nazi before and had done a lot of legwork in linking Russia and the far right in Europe.

I don't see many upsides for Ukraine in attacking her, but loads of downsides.

Equally - I don't see it being a good option for Putin either.

Inside the country he rules, his best options are either "normal causes", "implausibly violent accident" (critics falling out of windows for example) or the clear power of the state.

Like any autocrat he needs to consider what message is being sent.

normal causes - either no message, or "it's unhealthy to oppose Putin"

implausibly violent accident or poisoning that only the state has access to - message that Putin's reach is everywhere.


clear use of the state apparatus (arrest and charge for corruption, possibly with a death in a shootout) - message that Putin is in full control and nobody can oppose him, flaunting his power.


A car bomb is none of those. It is a clear assassination attempt, but the problem is that it is *not* clearly tied to Putin. And what someone who rules by fear cannot afford is for there to be questions about whether a killing is one he allowed/approved/instigated. Because that raises questions about whether he is fully in control of the ultimate sanction within the Palace circle.

So I think it is probably jockeying for position, and also a challenge to Putin.

 

[Wildy]

BTW: 37th strike against Chornobaevka...

They're up to 37? Last I checked they were still in the high twenties.

 

[Ziggurat]

Jesus **** ing Christ. The Global Hawk is a medium-high altitude recon drone.

60k feet ceiling sounds kind of high altitude to me.

Honestly I'm baffled why the US would bother giving them to Ukraine, when they could give Ukraine NATO-tier recon data directly.

Timeliness. Satellites are probably flying over Ukraine multiple times a day, but they won't have 24/7 coverage. And NATO isn't going to fly their own drones over Ukraine. So there's likely a multiple hour lag in most cases. For locating targets that need immediate servicing (I love that euphemism, BTW) by HIMARS, for example, having a drone that can spot them from a distance is really useful.

What I don't know and can't seem to find from Google searches is a good idea of the range of Global Hawk's sensors. How far away from a target can it identify, say, an S-400 system. But if we're giving them Global Hawks, we're probably doing it for a reason.

Ukraine would be better off getting actual UCAVs. Which the Global Hawks are not.

UCAVs don't provide any capability that their own aircraft don't already have. And while it's less of a problem to lose a UCAV than a manned plane, they're also a lot more vulnerable in contested air space. I don't think UCAV weapon ranges are very impressive either. So they may not be very useful right now.

 

[Garrison]

For now, they can blame the Ukrainians.

Sure and there are already people in Russia doing that, but I don't think they've thought through the message that is sending out, specifically that there are shadowy Ukrainian agents in the heart of Russia targeting Putin supporters.

 

[dudalb]

Jesus **** ing Christ. The Global Hawk is a medium-high altitude recon drone.

No, they cannot carry weapons. Their payload design is entirely sensors.

Honestly I'm baffled why the US would bother giving them to Ukraine, when they could give Ukraine NATO-tier recon data directly.

Ukraine would be better off getting actual UCAVs. Which the Global Hawks are not.

Which does not mean it could not altered.

 

[sackett]

My mistake

Which does not mean it could not altered.

It was a Reaper, back in 2017, that shot down a target drone with an air to air missile..

And it would be simply delicious if somebody.buckled a few onto a Hawk. Plenty mucho lift there.

 

[Allen773]

Difficult to know, isn't it.

Apparently Dugin's daughter was also a public figure. Is she someone who could have plausibly been seen as a threat to Putin? If so, maybe that might suggest Putin had her assassinated.

On the other hand, it could have been other Russian groups, or someone aiming for Dugin, or of course Ukrainian groups who wanted to get to Putin allies if they couldn't get directly to Putin.

It's pretty horrible, whoever did it and whatever the motive.

Occam’s Razor is that it was Ukrainians targeting Dugin, perhaps because he was seen as easier to target than the extremely well-protected senior leadership (Putin, Patrushev, Shoygu, etc.). I doubt that it was ordered by Kyiv, but who knows.

The internal Russian rivalry notion seems a bit of a stretch.

 

[Wildy]

Occam’s Razor is that it was Ukrainians targeting Dugin, perhaps because he was seen as easier to target than the extremely well-protected senior leadership (Putin, Patrushev, Shoygu, etc.). I doubt that it was ordered by Kyiv, but who knows.

The internal Russian rivalry notion seems a bit of a stretch.

One problem with that is that the car Dugina was driving belonged to her not her father. It seems odd to target Dugin by targetting his daughter's car.

 

[jimbob]

Occam’s Razor is that it was Ukrainians targeting Dugin, perhaps because he was seen as easier to target than the extremely well-protected senior leadership (Putin, Patrushev, Shoygu, etc.). I doubt that it was ordered by Kyiv, but who knows.

The internal Russian rivalry notion seems a bit of a stretch.

Why is infighting around an ailing leader implausible?

There seems more opportunity and motive than for the Ukrainians - where there would be a huge downside.

However, I would not be surprised if Putin's regime blames Ukraine

 

[The Don]

Why is infighting around an ailing leader implausible?

There seems more opportunity and motive than for the Ukrainians - where there would be a huge downside.

However, I would not be surprised if Putin's regime blames Ukraine

Yes, I cannot see any reason why Ukraine would target the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist.

Then again, it's not clear to me why Russia, or the Russian opposition would target her either. Maybe to scare her father ?

 

[Klimax]

Yes, I cannot see any reason why Ukraine would target the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist.

Then again, it's not clear to me why Russia, or the Russian opposition would target her either. Maybe to scare her father ?

Seems that either bad luck or both were targeted. She was pretty politically active too.

 

[The Don]

Interesting titbit from ISW regarding the effect of sanctions on Russia's air force:

Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus have reached an “urgent” agreement for Belarus to repair damaged Russian aviation equipment for re-use in Ukraine. This agreement could be part of a Russian effort to use the looser sanctions regime on Belarus to circumvent sectoral sanctions on Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21

If this is true then IMO that's encouraging. If Russia's ability to conduct airstrikes and to try to secure air superiority is significantly reduced then that'd be a game-changer for Ukraine.

Also Belarus will be risking more severe sanctions on themselves - indicating that they really are "all in".

 

[erwinl]

Yes, I cannot see any reason why Ukraine would target the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist.

Then again, it's not clear to me why Russia, or the Russian opposition would target her either. Maybe to scare her father ?

Here (Dutch only, sorry), it says that it was an until now unkown Russian anti Putin group.
This as published by an opposition politician with the name of Ilja Ponomarjov.

No idea, how much, if anything, is true of that.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I read that the bomb was on the driver's side and it was her car. They arrived together but he changed his plans and didn't return with her. While it's possible he always drove if they travelled together I think it's likely if they used her car it was she who drove. So I tend to think she was the target.

That makes me (and presumably him) think about who persuaded him not to get back in the car.

 

[theprestige]

Which does not mean it could not altered.

Yes. Yes it does. It's built for long range high altitude recon. Nobody talks about about how the U-2 is their favorite attack plane. By the time you altered it to carry weapons - which you wouldn't, since you already have other, better airframes for that purpose - you'd have an entirely different plane.

sackett might be talking about the Predator or Reaper UCAVs, but he's not talking about the Global Hawk.

 

[The Don]

Less good news

Russia has made small gains near Kharkiv, has repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Izyum and is advancing towards Bakhmut.

 

[jimbob]

Less good news

Russia has made small gains near Kharkiv, has repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Izyum and is advancing towards Bakhmut.

The speed of advance is at First World War (Western Front) levels. Both the Russian Empire and the Central Powers managed faster advances in the East.

 

[The Don]

The speed of advance is at First World War (Western Front) levels. Both the Russian Empire and the Central Powers managed faster advances in the East.

Yes the speed of advance is incredibly slow, but whilst it's better than rapid Russian advances, it still means that parts of Ukraine are reduced to rubble.

At a kilometre a day, that's still 30km a month or 350km a year.

 

[Klimax]

Yes the speed of advance is incredibly slow, but whilst it's better than rapid Russian advances, it still means that parts of Ukraine are reduced to rubble.

At a kilometer a day, that's still 30km a month or 350km a year.

Your calculation is completely wrong. You should use a kilometer per week. Not per day. And I am still nice to Russians.

Anyway, so far nothing to confirm your video (nothing on DefMon3 or any other sources).