The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[theprestige]

As it happens, I suggested no such thing.

As it happens, I think you understand my point well enough

 

[Aridas]

Russia is not building any tanks at the moment, due to lack of foreign parts, and even if they are able to restart production, it will be at a low rate.

I heard that they managed to restart production a while ago. No word on how effectively.

Maybe if Putin really starts to feel some heat he'd agree to release all the hostages after just a ceasefire.

FWIW, I'm not convinced that Putin actually can do so for all of them at this point on multiple fronts. First, many of those who have been effectively abducted are apparently very poorly monitored - there were stories of Ukrainians who managed to simply cross another border and return to Ukraine a while ago when the focus was a bit more on that issue, for example. This has a number of implications about their ability to keep track of those that weren't brazen enough to do such, too. Second, in a related point, it's pretty much a given that their bureaucracy isn't even remotely keeping accurate information, probably including when it comes to the abducted Ukrainian children. Third, those abducted and used as cannon fodder are difficult to return after use. Plenty more can be said, but... in short, don't count on Russia even being able to return most of those they abducted, even in the unlikely event that they'd be willing to do so. Some POWs, possibly, but even then, we need look no further than the POWs scheduled to be traded that were massacred by the Russians not too long ago for how trustworthy their word actually is. That's not to say to stop efforts to stop the abduction of Ukrainians and to get them back, of course, but acknowledging the situation at hand is something that should ever be done.

 

[Klimax]

Will the EU, UK and USA be willing to plough in $100bn-$200bn a year for the next 5, 10, 15 years while Ukraine rebuilds at the same time that UK and EU economies are suffering because of Russia's withdrawal of oil and gas supplies ?

Guess what is in Donbas. There is your answer.

Maybe it is, but those units are still slowly taking ground in the East.

While losing already other ground in same oblast.

That's certainly the perceived wisdom.

Do you need experienced soldiers or an effective officer corps if your plan is just to reduce everything to dust using inaccurate artillery?

Yes. Especially in logistics. Trivial equation: No logistics no artillery.

 

[The Don]

Guess what is in Donbas. There is your answer.

Yes there are plenty of petrochemical reserves there but they will take years and billions of dollars to exploit, longer and more investment if they are to be exported by pipeline.

While losing already other ground in same oblast.

Are you referring to the Ukrainian gains around Izyum, or somewhere else ?

Yes. Especially in logistics. Trivial equation: No logistics no artillery.

True, but Russia is still able to maintain their artillery barrage at the moment.

 

[Aridas]

True, but Russia is still able to maintain their artillery barrage at the moment.

With the note that the volume seems to have been dramatically reduced.

 

[The Don]

With the note that the volume seems to have been dramatically reduced.

Yes, but they're still grinding on westwards on the Eastern front taking a village or two every day on their way towards the major cities.

It also looks like they might be about to breach the well established (since 2015) defensive lines in the South of Donbas which would result in significant advances thereafter.

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not cheering Russia on, neither am I revelling in the bad news from Ukraine. Instead I'm trying to highlight that Russia is still doing immense damage to Ukraine and there's no indication of any significant reversals any time soon. Whether it's the supply of NATO long range artillery or the deployment of HIMARS, these are incremental benefits to Ukraine but there isn't yet any evidence that they are turning the tide of the war.

Winter is rapidly approaching and if Russia turns off gas supplies to Ukraine and Western Europe permanently, there will be lots of hardship which in turn may kill tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and weaken public support for the war in the UK and Europe.

 

[jimbob]

I'm trying to find some of the propaganda videos produced by the Russian puppet militias .

Remember that these are propaganda videos, so painting them in the best light.

In one, if they had the training and equipment of a US GI squad of 1944/45, their squad would have been more effective. The helmets providing some protection and not trying to shoot their rifles by holding them at arms length above their heads.

See also this comment on a Russian propaganda video, where at least some of the cannon fodder have helmets.


https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1554522928406044672?s=20&t=obZeHYFi2Z3mQ_a51PkIEg

Def Mon
@DefMon3
·
Aug 2
This one is a good one, ill translate it from Kremlinese:
"We send our stupid ass cannon fodder out in the open, 600m from enemy positions, without cover or protection, to bait Ukrainian artillery to reveal their positions." Video below. #nolivesmatte

 

[theprestige]

That's certainly the perceived wisdom.

Do you need experienced soldiers or an effective officer corps if your plan is just to reduce everything to dust using inaccurate artillery?

Yes, because that's not a plan. Artillery is not magic. Even inaccurate artillery needs to be supplied and positioned and directed to fire on targets. Gun crews still need to be encouraged to lay their guns properly on the target, and keep up a steady rate of fire. Damage assessment still needs to be done, and accuracy reported back to the crews to adjust their fire. Even an empty apartment block needs to be ranged.

And empty apartment blocks aren't enemy formations. There's not enough artillery in all of Russia to just vaguely wave in the estimated direction of a Ukrainian force and assume enough rounds will hit the target by accident to make a difference. Sure, maybe you can do that with a city center or some other large, stationary target. But that doesn't do anything about enemy tanks, or enemy artillery. Inaccurate artillery, poorly crewed, and poorly informed by inadequate reconnaissance, are useless for counter-battery work.

This isn't WWI. This isn't a dozen howitzers bombarding the same quarter-mile of trench line every day, prior to that day's charge across no man's land. This is maneuver warfare. The Ukrainians are maneuvering.

You really need to give up this fantasy of magical Russian artillery barrages. A stationary village is not a motorized infantry company. Rubble is not destroyed tanks. Russian artillery is not magic.

 

[Klimax]

Guess what is in Donbas. There is your answer.

Yes there are plenty of petrochemical reserves there but they will take years and billions of dollars to exploit, longer and more investment if they are to be exported by pipeline.

While losing already other ground in same oblast.

Are you referring to the Ukrainian gains around Izyum, or somewhere else ?

Izium and Kherson. And any other parts of front from which Russains are moving BTGs to Kherson.

Yes. Especially in logistics. Trivial equation: No logistics no artillery.

True, but Russia is still able to maintain their artillery barrage at the moment.

Far weaker and its not getting any better.Although it should be noted that not all areas got equal HIMARS treatment.

Yes, but they're still grinding on westwards on the Eastern front taking a village or two every day on their way towards the major cities.

You are behind again. They are now taking at best a village or two after a week. At worst.

It also looks like they might be about to breach the well established (since 2015) defensive lines in the South of Donbas which would result in significant advances thereafter.

Where? And evidence. This assertion is very vague.

...
Winter is rapidly approaching and if Russia turns off gas supplies to Ukraine and Western Europe permanently, there will be lots of hardship which in turn may kill tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and weaken public support for the war in the UK and Europe.

There won't. Govs are busy preparing for such case. What makes you think there will be hardship? The worst case companies will be impacted, but not homes.

 

[lobosrul5]

Yes, but they're still grinding on westwards on the Eastern front taking a village or two every day on their way towards the major cities.

It also looks like they might be about to breach the well established (since 2015) defensive lines in the South of Donbas which would result in significant advances thereafter.

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not cheering Russia on, neither am I revelling in the bad news from Ukraine. Instead I'm trying to highlight that Russia is still doing immense damage to Ukraine and there's no indication of any significant reversals any time soon. Whether it's the supply of NATO long range artillery or the deployment of HIMARS, these are incremental benefits to Ukraine but there isn't yet any evidence that they are turning the tide of the war.


Winter is rapidly approaching and if Russia turns off gas supplies to Ukraine and Western Europe permanently, there will be lots of hardship which in turn may kill tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and weaken public support for the war in the UK and Europe.

A village or two a week maybe... damnit I wish I could find the map and figures I saw the other day. Russia took just 160 square kilometers in the entire month of July, or .02% of Ukraine.

 

[theprestige]

Russia made a big surge at the beginning, and grabbed some territory thereby. Ever since, they've been slowing down.

The Don imagines they've got substantial reserves hiding in the shadows, unnoticed by western intelligence, ready to break through and make more big advances.

And we might still see such a breakthrough. I doubt it, but it could happen. If it does, I think it will look a lot more like the Rundstedt-Offensive, than like Operation Overlord. If nothing else, such a breakthrough would provide the Ukrainians a clear concentration of high-value targets to focus their increasingly-effective artillery fire on.

And as even The Don has acknowledged, the Russians cold suck at maneuver warfare. It's laughable to imagine their Soviet-era artillery and supply chain would be able to keep up with an army on the move, and provide timely and accurate supporting fire and counterbattery during engagements. In fact, I doubt they'd be able to fire effectively enough, or move fast enough, to retard a Ukrainian advance before their positions were overrun.

This war is no longer a question of what the Russians can do - we're seeing what the Russians can do. They've lost all momentum. The real question now is what the Ukrainians can do. If they can assemble and launch a major offensive this year, that's probably it for the Russians. If the Ukrainians can't do that, then this probably ends up in a decade-long stalemate along the current front.

 

[SpitfireIX]

A village or two a week maybe... damnit I wish I could find the map and figures I saw the other day. Russia took just 160 square kilometers in the entire month of July, or .02% of Ukraine.

Another point that I don't think some people are grasping is that this isn't some tabletop wargame where the Russian player can keep an unlimited number of units in supply as long as each can trace a line of hexes back to Moscow free from Ukrainian units or zones of control. Every kilometer the Russians advance puts additional strain on their already overstretched logistics. They don't have enough trucks, drivers, mechanics, spares, or supply personnel, and those they do have are being steadily eroded. And the longer their rail and road supply lines become, the more susceptible to attacks from GMLRS, drones, and partisans they become.

 

[Jimbo07]

The Don imagines they've got substantial reserves hiding in the shadows, unnoticed by western intelligence, ready to break through and make more big advances.

I don't think any of us believe that Russia's got a lot of high quality, highly trained reserves (although Russian boosters still cling to the idea that Russia has yet to send its best). That said, the most optimistic Western boosters don't seem to be acknowledging the depths of Putin's depravity! They're recruiting from poor rural areas, so he can avoid a general mobilization. However, that option is always lurking in the background. I don't think we know how far he can be pushed!

Even if they're no longer effective warfighters, a bunch of poorly trained Russian pirates running around Ukraine still means trouble for Ukraine!

And as even The Don has acknowledged, the Russians cold suck at maneuver warfare.

The Russian military has shown itself to be... not good, to say the least. People are still suffering. Does it even matter? I've seen one speculation that a slow burn stalemate suits Putin's needs of having a cause to wave the flag around.

If they can assemble and launch a major offensive this year, that's probably it for the Russians. If the Ukrainians can't do that, then this probably ends up in a decade-long stalemate along the current front.

Captain Swoop says it'll be a rout. You're saying that if not, it'll be a decade-long stalemate. I guess we'll see. Anything short of a Russian defeat may be spun as a victory! Putin may not be being punished enough to even consider withdrawing right now.

 

[dudalb]

Russia is not building any tanks at the moment, due to lack of foreign parts, and even if they are able to restart production, it will be at a low rate.

Maybe they got some T-34's they can take out of mothballs?

 

[SpitfireIX]

Maybe they got some T-34's they can take out of mothballs?

According to Perun they don't, unfortunately. It would be humorous to see T-34s go up against Ukrainians armed with modern anti-tank weapons. Perun does say that supposedly the Russians have 100 Katyushas in storage somewhere, though.

 

[theprestige]

Yes, because he still has considerable foreign currency inflows and the ability to print money.

How does that work? Printing rubles isn't the same as printing circuit boards.

Kontakt-5 is specific chemical compounds assembled into explosive reactive armor bricks. You can't just wedge a sheaf of foreign currency between two metal plates, bolt it onto a tank turret, and call it "armor".

 

[ZiprHead]

****posting Shiba Inu Accounts Chased a Russian Diplomat Offline

An unofficial army of cartoon Shiba Inu dogs is making life hard for people who post Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine online. They are known as NAFO, the North Atlantic Fellas Organization, a small but growing cadre of ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ who’ve gathered to raise money for Ukraine and call out obvious propaganda when they see it. It’s getting hard to tow the Kremlin’s party line on Twitter without them showing up in the replies to mock and counter it.

Ulyanov’s reply became a meme among the fellas, a rallying cry for the obvious stupidity of so much Russian disinformation. Replies and quote tweets from other Fellas poured in. People began parroting the phrase. Now, you can buy it on a T-Shirt from the St. Javelin charity that donates cash to Ukraine.

Ulyanov tried to play the whole thing off for the next few days and pondered aloud if some of the Shibas were bots. Then he vanished from Twitter for a week before returning on July 1 with the explanation that he’d taken a pre-planned vacation. “Now is the time to resume tweeting,” he said. The first reply is from a Fella account. They will not leave him alone.

Sending a Russian diplomat’s Twitter feed to reply-guy hell is one of the funniest things the Fellas have done, but they’re also raising a lot of money for Ukraine. St. Javelin reached out and now there’s a separate page on its store just for Fellas-branded merchandise. When I spoke to Kama, they’d raised about $47,000 just for the Legion and “at least another $10k for other causes and we have roughly made $30 to $50k through the St. Javelin store.”

 

[crescent]

In portions of Ukraine that are currently occupied by Russia, support for being annexed by Ukraine is at no more than 30%..

Two issues with the poll:
1: Many of the pro-Ukrainian people would have fled those areas.
2: 40% of respondents refused to answer. Pro-Russian people would have little to fear from answering positively to a Russian poll, so I would assume that most of that 40% don't support annexation.

 

[gnome]

My personal calculus has revolved around the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that have been kidnapped and transported into Russia. It hinges on whether the Ukrainians can acquire something of value, and offer it to the Russians in exchange for getting their people back.

For me, those lives are paramount. I'd be willing to consider a substantial trade of territory and other things, to get them back. I would think it a great tragedy if the Ukranians were able to drive the Russians off their Crimean land bridge, but never saw those kidnapped Ukrainians again. I would consider trading the land bridge back to the Russians, in exchange for those lives being returned to Ukraine. I would consider giving up claims to the "separatist" regions, in exchange for those lives.

I'm not saying a Russian total or partial victory on those terms is preferable to continued war. I'm saying that's the central question, for me, about whether Ukraine should keep fighting or seek some sort of compromise that brings peace by giving the Russians something they want.

This comment stuck with me because I'm quite divided in myself on the matter. A part of me agrees with you fully: that getting forcibly removed Ukranians returned to their home country is more important than complete land reclamation.

Then there's another part of me that worries about other lives: those that live in the territory that Ukraine might leave to the Russians under such a deal. Those that might be lost in the future to the example set: that you can gain territory by taking hostages.

Where I landed with it is it's not my decision. The government of Ukraine has to decide what's possible and whether the implications are indeed worth risking for getting the people home. I remember seeing something recently about that kind of decision, can't quite remember where. The hero of the story decided making the right thing happen now was better.

 

[Aridas]

In portions of Ukraine that are currently occupied by Russia, support for being annexed by Ukraine is at no more than 30%..

Two issues with the poll:
1: Many of the pro-Ukrainian people would have fled those areas.
2: 40% of respondents refused to answer. Pro-Russian people would have little to fear from answering positively to a Russian poll, so I would assume that most of that 40% don't support annexation.

Refusing to answer doesn't automatically mean holding a particular position, though. Plenty might just not feel like dealing with such. Thus, 2 is a poor actual indicator in either direction. With that said, a coercive environment with, for example, officials that would be entirely willing and able to misuse/abuse ostensibly anonymous data or act to try to scam people into revealing information that could be hazardous to their health is not one where polls will tend to be particularly trustworthy. In the brutal warlord controlled separatist areas, conditions like that are fairly certainly met. In the newly militarily occupied areas, conditions like that are fairly certain met. Even those who claim to support the coercers' positions in such a situation cannot be trusted to be saying so out of honest opinion rather than fear/caution or sycophancy, before even getting to the people who have fled or been removed because of how much they don't support the coercers.

It's entirely plausible that it happens to be accurate in any particular case, of course, but it should be impossible to trust that it is. As I've said before, Russia has utterly destroyed any will of the people argument that can be made for any part of Ukraine to either separate/stay separate from Ukraine or to join Russia, by sheer virtue of the fact that it's impossible to trust any such result.