The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[plague311]

Ask The Don. He's the one that believes the Russian economy is strong enough to build and train replacement forces faster than they're getting worn down in Ukraine.

Legit question.

I don't know how long it takes to build the various forms of military equipment, but if they went full-bore to produce tanks, drones, vehicles, etc. what would be the best case scenario as far as delivery\war ready?

Even with money you can only make things happen at the speed they're able to happen at and I can't imagine that the production of tried and true war equipment can be done in a few months or up to a years time.

Am I on the right path or am I missing something?

Putin might be sending the pay….those along the way may be helping themselves.

You might be right, which would make me laugh even harder.

"I'm going to pocket their money, that should help morale!"

 

[SpitfireIX]

Yeah, but you can also see why Putin is still able to build and train indefinite numbers of tanks and troops for the long term, under his current and forecasted economic conditions.

Russia is not building any tanks at the moment, due to lack of foreign parts, and even if they are able to restart production, it will be at a low rate.

 

[ginjawarrior]

Yes, because he still has considerable foreign currency inflows and the ability to print money.

Like Nazi Germany, the "wartime" economy bears little resemblance to the "real" one. Meanwhile the non- military service economy grinds to a halt.

Take Russia trying now for negotiation as a sign that they're losing strength

"The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution," Schroeder told Stern weekly and broadcasters RTL/ntv, adding he had met Putin in Moscow last week

https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-ex-chancellor-schroeder-says-040642809.html

 

[SpitfireIX]

Additionally, as we've discussed, the Russians have gutted their training units, and they've suffered devastating losses to their officer corps at all levels.

 

[theprestige]

Yes, because he still has considerable foreign currency inflows and the ability to print money.

Like Nazi Germany, the "wartime" economy bears little resemblance to the "real" one. Meanwhile the non- military service economy grinds to a halt.

The Nazi wartime economy that hollowed out their nation, hollowed out their military, and collapsed under the unrelenting pressure of the Allies?

You'd have pointed to the Ardennes Offensive and said, "see?! They're advancing! No sign of Germany losing this war anywhere in sight!"

 

[Allen773]

I think Russia can fight this war for a few more years, probably. However, authoritarian regimes can last a very long time, and I see little reason to think Putin's regime cannot maintain its increasingly brutal grip on Russia for many more years.

Assuming Vlad and his fellow Chekhist allies like Nikolai Patrushev live for many more years (70 is the new 50, or something), their best-case scenario for remaining in power is turning Russia into something like a giant North Korea. Fortress Russia like you've never seen before!

But at least the USSR was a genuine superpower, even at its most murderously repressive.

 

[jimbob]

pro Russian Lebanese? Is Lebanon particularly pro Russian or is it just this outlet? I hadn't heard if they were an ally

From https://scrutable.science/viewtopic.php?p=129403#p129403

Al Mayadeen, the channel on which he appeared, have also engaged in Holocaust denial. They are run by a friend of Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. And while on them, aside from his idiotic commens on Ukraine, he also used antisemitic dogwhistles about "powerful forces", just as Abbott did in his defence. Meanwhile, Shameless Seumas is very interested in articles arguing that Ukraine should lose the war, and Chris Williamson - who was fervently defended by the Corbynite cult - is now claiming that Jews were settler colonists in (checks notes) Odesa.

 

[eerok]

I'm sorry, but "shoot the hostages to serve a higher principle" just doesn't resonate with me.

As it happens, I suggested no such thing.

 

[The Don]

Don't they rely on a number of European firms for a lot of parts and machine tools?

Yes they do, which is why they are falling back on their considerable stocks of Soviet era artillery and munitions.

 

[The Don]

The Nazi wartime economy that hollowed out their nation, hollowed out their military, and collapsed under the unrelenting pressure of the Allies?

You'd have pointed to the Ardennes Offensive and said, "see?! They're advancing! No sign of Germany losing this war anywhere in sight!"

I guess the key question is whether we're in 1939 here or 1944.

 

[theprestige]

I think Russia can fight this war for a few more years, probably.

Even longer, if by "fight this war" we mean "continue to trickle in increasingly ill-equipped and ill-motivated troops to hold a line against Ukrainian forces that are not yet ready to launch a decisive counter-attack."

Especially if they're willing to hollow out other fronts (such as their border with China) to sustain their presence in Ukraine.

So it really comes down to how much longer Ukraine is going to let this phase of the war continue. At some point, does Ukraine accumulate enough western gear and ammo, enough drones and other resources, to make a major offensive push on the eastern front? What happens when they do? Does Russia continue to steadfastly hold the line? Does their vaunted artillery actually come through in a pinch?

I think the only way Russia fights this war for a few more years is if Ukraine takes a few more years to get ready for a counter-offensive. I think the Ukrainians are probably hoping to go on the offensive later this year. If they do, then we'll see what's what. We'll see whether The Don is right, and the the Russian forces really are deployed in sufficient depth and strength to throw them back, or if the line they're holding is held by Potemkin battalions and big dumb artillery barrages.

 

[The Don]

Additionally, as we've discussed, the Russians have gutted their training units, and they've suffered devastating losses to their officer corps at all levels.

That's certainly the perceived wisdom.

Do you need experienced soldiers or an effective officer corps if your plan is just to reduce everything to dust using inaccurate artillery?

 

[Ziggurat]

Even with money you can only make things happen at the speed they're able to happen at and I can't imagine that the production of tried and true war equipment can be done in a few months or up to a years time.

Am I on the right path or am I missing something?

It's likely to be a mixed bag, dependent both on what sort of pre-existing production capacity you have as well as how easily you can shift production capacity of other stuff over to it. In WW2, a lot of soviet tanks were made in a tractor factory. There's a fair amount of overlap between the two. But there's little to no overlap of anything non-military with something like the Su-57. And for some high-tech stuff, not only can they not easily expand production capacity, but a lot of it depends on foreign high-tech parts which are now cut off. So... maybe they can ramp up to significant production of new/replacement artillery barrels and shells. But the high end equipment? Not so much. Hell, they only ever made 16 Su-57's in over 12 years, and 10 of those were "test" models, only 6 "serial production". We aren't going to see them fielding new Su-57's in numbers.

You might be right, which would make me laugh even harder.

"I'm going to pocket their money, that should help morale!"

It's probably been linked before, but worth linking again:

How Corruption Destroys Armies

 

[plague311]

It's likely to be a mixed bag, dependent both on what sort of pre-existing production capacity you have as well as how easily you can shift production capacity of other stuff over to it. In WW2, a lot of soviet tanks were made in a tractor factory. There's a fair amount of overlap between the two. But there's little to no overlap of anything non-military with something like the Su-57. And for some high-tech stuff, not only can they not easily expand production capacity, but a lot of it depends on foreign high-tech parts which are now cut off. So... maybe they can ramp up to significant production of new/replacement artillery barrels and shells. But the high end equipment? Not so much. Hell, they only ever made 16 Su-57's in over 12 years, and 10 of those were "test" models, only 6 "serial production". We aren't going to see them fielding new Su-57's in numbers.

Ok, that's pretty much what I was thinking. Anything that would be considered a game changer would be a year or so out, if at all.

While the artillery has done\will do damage, if the HIMARS can keep blowing up ammo depots, trains, and the like, then even if that equipment is produced quickly it might not have as much of an impact.

I read that it takes, on average, about 5 months to produce an Abrams tank. I have no idea how reliable that number is, though. I've also read tank production times vary from 12-24 weeks, so it seems consistent. While Abrams aren't what the Russians are using, I'm assuming that being cutoff from parts is going to increase that.

Which, all-in-all, means that Russia is pretty much fighting this war with what they have available to them now.

(Thanks for the video, it was a bit long so I'll watch it tonight after Chinese Buffet.)

 

[Jack by the hedge]

...

I read that it takes, on average, about 5 months to produce an Abrams tank. I have no idea how reliable that number is, though. I've also read tank production times vary from 12-24 weeks, so it seems consistent. While Abrams aren't what the Russians are using, I'm assuming that being cutoff from parts is going to increase that.



Which, all-in-all, means that Russia is pretty much fighting this war with what they have available to them now.

The US kept Abrams production going even in times when it didn't seem there was a need for them. That's why they can still be built fast: the key skills have not been dispersed and lost.

Restarting production after years is a whole series of mountains to climb by comparison and if you can't get certain key components you might as well not bother trying. Might be worth building something else you can put together from parts you can actually get, but basically I absolutely agree that Russia is going to see out this war with the kit it already has.

 

[lobosrul5]

I disagree with rewarding any criminal action committed by Russia. The fight will end when justice is served. Russia needs to be brought before an international court, and held to account for its reprehensible behavior. Reparation must be paid and hostages must be freed. But first Russia must be beaten, which is the job Ukraine and the West face right now.

If only they didn't have nukes, or the Russian people actually held their oligarchs accountable, or their oligarchs actually had... sympathy or human compassion, then that may be possible. But since, as far as we know, none of that is true then its not going to happen. I'd be surprised if any of their hostages ever make it out of Russia ever again honestly. As theprestige said upthread he'd calculate their lives as more important than territorial gains and I am in a way, with him. But, until those people are back in Ukraine, in Ukrainian held areas, then taking the Russians at their word is just plain idiotic. And I cannot see them "going first", ie they'll demand Ukraine stop fighting and give up their arms... then they'll return their people. I'm actually surprised they haven't started released videos of them torturing/murdering/raping the people they took en masse already.

 

[lobosrul5]

Even longer, if by "fight this war" we mean "continue to trickle in increasingly ill-equipped and ill-motivated troops to hold a line against Ukrainian forces that are not yet ready to launch a decisive counter-attack."

Especially if they're willing to hollow out other fronts (such as their border with China) to sustain their presence in Ukraine.

So it really comes down to how much longer Ukraine is going to let this phase of the war continue. At some point, does Ukraine accumulate enough western gear and ammo, enough drones and other resources, to make a major offensive push on the eastern front? What happens when they do? Does Russia continue to steadfastly hold the line? Does their vaunted artillery actually come through in a pinch?

I think the only way Russia fights this war for a few more years is if Ukraine takes a few more years to get ready for a counter-offensive. I think the Ukrainians are probably hoping to go on the offensive later this year. If they do, then we'll see what's what. We'll see whether The Don is right, and the the Russian forces really are deployed in sufficient depth and strength to throw them back, or if the line they're holding is held by Potemkin battalions and big dumb artillery barrages.

Haven't we already had discussions that Russia seems to have left their wide ranging Asian borders essentially unguarded, and deployed nearly their entire military (except those guarding Putin), to Ukraine?

My guess is they will resort to extreme ugliness when the Ukrainian Army approaches Russian territory. And by that I mean WMD or mass murder of Ukrainian prisoners.

 

[theprestige]

I guess the key question is whether we're in 1939 here or 1944.

We're in 2022. Remember how an unprepared German army annexed Austria because nobody took them seriously or was prepared to resist? That's Ukraine 2014. Or Ukraine Feb 2022, when the same unprepared Russian Army tried it on again, only this time their victim had taken them seriously, and was prepared.

Imagine if France and the UK had come to Poland's aid earlier, and Hitler didn't have Stalin to help him out.

No, we're definitely looking at something closer to 1944, where the Nazi advance is stalled, and its industry is dying, while its enemies are still gathering steam.

 

[Ziggurat]

And I cannot see them "going first", ie they'll demand Ukraine stop fighting and give up their arms... then they'll return their people.

Ukraine might agree to stop fighting, depending on the offer. They will never agree to give up their arms, not post invasion. That proved their necessity.

 

[lobosrul5]

Ukraine might agree to stop fighting, depending on the offer. They will never agree to give up their arms, not post invasion. That proved their necessity.

Maybe if Putin really starts to feel some heat he'd agree to release all the hostages after just a ceasefire. OTOH, from my completely amateurish analysis, its just not how he or Russia operates. It'd be seen as a sign of weakness and his days will be numbered. My best guess as how this plays out is a decade or more of a low intensity war. Russia keeps lobbing the occasional missile or artillery strike from Russia into Ukraine to remind them they're still at war and then come up with some propaganda like Ukraine bombed a prison or something. Ukraine know they can't actually drive into Russia and oust Putin. So... life there is just going to suck for a long time. Eventually Putin will die and maybe eventually things will change, or maybe Russia just devolves into anarchy and their military packs up and walks home?