The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Andy_Ross]

Russia has reportedly doubled their forces around Kherson to around 25k to repel the counteroffensive (which would apparently never happen).

They continue to slowly advance towards Bakmut.

For a spent force, they seem to be able to call up significant reserves on one front and maintain their glacial pace of advance on another.

Ukraine has the advantage, they can choose their line of attack and switch their forces.
Russia are pretty much on the defensive.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

To poke at a more general update regarding the Kherson counteroffensive -



Not as fast as pretty much any of us would prefer, I'm sure, but they are pushing forwards. A fair bit faster than Russia's pushing forward on the eastern front, for that matter, by the look of it.

I don't believe the 46 settlements since the start of the counteroffensive. 46 settlements in the south since March -- that is possible.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Russia has reportedly doubled their forces around Kherson to around 25k to repel the counteroffensive (which would apparently never happen).

They continue to slowly advance towards Bakmut.

For a spent force, they seem to be able to call up significant reserves on one front and maintain their glacial pace of advance on another.

A spent athlete is still going to outperform me.in a sporting contest

 

[The Don]

A spent athlete is still going to outperform me.in a sporting contest

True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.

The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders.

My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects) and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective.

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.

 

[Flo]

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.

I share your fear.

 

[lobosrul5]

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.

My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.

Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages?

ETA: then looking another year ahead, what happens if "The Donald" is POTUS again?

 

[BobTheCoward]

True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.

The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders.

My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects) and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective.

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.

Do you want the West to provide aid as an act of charity, or do you think it advances Western domestic interests?

 

[The Don]

Do you want the West to provide aid as an act of charity, or do you think it advances Western domestic interests?

I admit that I made a mistake in materially responding to your first post.

I shall not do so for a second time in case the thread gets completely derailed in a predictable way.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I admit that I made a mistake in materially responding to your first post.

I shall not do so for a second time in case the thread gets completely derailed in a predictable way.

I don't think it is a BS question. If your view is that it should be done for the sake of human need, then that is your value judgement. But your post also isn't clear of the future Russian activity is a value concern or if you are making a national self interest argument. Either are fine, I just don't want to say you support one when you support either (or both or neither).

 

[Aridas]

Seems like whackamole to me. Russia diverts their eastern forces to Kherson, and Ukraine will start clobbering Donetsk or push from Kharkiv. At least Russia has realized what's strategically important, but it might be too late if they can't maintain access to the city of Kherson.

Russia's likely losing ground around Izyum now, for example, and there were reports of more general hollowing out of their holding forces in the south.

I don't believe the 46 settlements since the start of the counteroffensive. 46 settlements in the south since March -- that is possible.

IIRC, this counteroffensive has been going on for a while now, anyways. At least since Ukraine crossed the river and hit around Davydiv Brid, with a decent chance that it's been longer given the relative information blocking going on. They've been making increasing progress on the northern side of that battlefield in recent days, either way, and have likely effectively cut off a couple groups of Russian invaders and progressed further south from there.

 

[theprestige]

True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.

The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force

Really? I'm not getting that message at all.

The message I'm getting is that Russia has less military resources to spend than previously estimated; that they're spending those resources at a high rate for marginal gains; that this rate of spending cannot be sustained much longer; and that this combined with Ukraine's (equally surprising) resilience means there is a growing chance that Ukraine can not only resist the Russian advance, but even turn the tide of battle and drive the Russians back.

and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders.

Yes, that would be the ideal result. Have you ever heard of a bust-out? In the later stages, a business can already be hollowed out and incapable of ever resuming normal operations, while still finding a final few sources of credit to exploit before it's fully used up. I suspect that's probably the core of the western strategy right now: Force Putin to run a bust-out on his own armed forces, in an attempt to keep things going in Ukraine. I think the Russian military is already deep in it, probably too far to recover at this point. The only question is how much longer Putin can or will keep the bust-out going.

My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects)

*That* is your concern? Hasn't the actual sequence of events been the opposite? Prior to February, it seems Western intelligence believed that Russia's strength and capability was far greater than it has turned out to be. The west has been gearing up for a near-peer conflict. They expected the Russian army to be a less-advanced, but still well-equipped and highly competent fighting force, with some areas of true excellence, such as air defense and long-range artillery.

Now that we see them in action, we're realizing they're barely up to the challenge of holding their own against Ukraine. Their air defenses are okay. Their long-range artillery is okay. Their logistics are ass. Their training and maintenance are ass. Their morale is probably somewhere between okay and ass.

It's clear that Russia is still able to field some functional formations. But the level of functionality, and the total number of units being fielded, is far less than what we expected.

If Putin had a mass of well-equipped, well-trained, highly competent troops, it was probably the ones he committed to Kiev, which were thrown back and apparently destroyed.

It's amazing that in a world where it's clear that Russian military officials have successfully over-represented their actual numbers and readiness, you still insist on believing those things have been under-represented.

and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective.

That doesn't make any sense. Russians are not magic. Russia is holding out because they're throwing more and more of what we know to be limited reserves at a smaller area of operation in an attempt to hang onto very limited gains.

The only thing we don't know for sure is exactly how long Russia can sustain this level of spend, for these marginal gains. We're pretty sure it won't be long enough to exhaust western support for Ukraine. And at the moment it doesn't seem like it will soon exhaust the Ukrainian willingness to keep fighting.

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is limited manpower. If they do counterattack, they probably won't have the troops to try it more than a few times. So it makes sense that they would chip away at the Russians in the meantime, waiting until they've built up enough of an advantage, and deteriorated the enemy forces sufficiently, to initiate a decisive battle in their favor.

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.
: (

I think Russia has already passed the point where it will be ready for another go in a few years. Decades, maybe. If they carry out some major reforms, and also somehow rev up their economy.

The army that broke out in the east and also advanced on Kiev doesn't exist anymore. The army that's still fighting in the east is a lot weaker than we expected back in February.

For someone who supposedly wants the west to stay committed, you sure seem quick to discard "this is working, let's keep doing it" in favor of "this isn't working, let's rethink".

I think what we're doing is working. I think the Russian military is much weaker than we believed a year ago. I think it's probably hollowing itself out pretty quick, to keep up a strong front in the East. How strong that front actually is, and how fragile it will prove to be, if and when Ukraine counterattacks, remains to be seen.

It's already clear it's not strong enough to make any kind of major push, or drive the Ukrainians substantially back. I think the Secret Formations you fear, that will show up Real Soon Now to enable a Russian push, don't exist. Quite the opposite: I think the troops being sent to shore up the eastern front are going to be progressively weaker and weaker. I think Ukraine's biggest concern right now is not whether they could crush the Russians around Kherson, but whether they can do it with enough reserves to avoid a pyrrhic victory and leave themselves open to any half-assed invasion that might seek to take advantage. And I think that every week that passes, with the Russians trying to keep up appearances, and the Ukrainians getting stronger and stronger, tips the balance further in Ukraines favor.

 

[SpitfireIX]

My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.

Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages?

ETA: then looking another year ahead, what happens if "The Donald" is POTUS again?

If God/doG/FSM forbid Trump is reelected, he will not reassume office until two years from next January. I have maintained, and continue to maintain, that whatever plans he may have to cut Ukraine off will be moot because if the war is still going on, Russia will have suffered both military and economic collapses by then.

 

[Klimax]

My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.

Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages?
...

Like many other your fears, this one has about as much backing as all others. None. Can you guess why?

 

[Jimbo07]

So, as I predicted, Russia hasn't pulled out of the International Space Station.

It's not that I don't think they could, and not that I believe them when they say anything. Rather, they've made bombastic statements about their space program before. It's a case of, "I'll believe it when I see it."

 

[Wudang]

Another thread by ChrisO on Russian infantry based on their words. This is on the growing divide between soldiers and officers.
Promises of rotation back to Russia never happens, support helicopters mainly can't fly, those that do fail to hit targets but report they do so unsupported infantry sent in etc.



https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1554568649268232192

 

[eerok]

Another thread by ChrisO on Russian infantry based on their words. This is on the growing divide between soldiers and officers.
Promises of rotation back to Russia never happens, support helicopters mainly can't fly, those that do fail to hit targets but report they do so unsupported infantry sent in etc.

Apparently there are other broken promises:

Russian regional officials are failing to make promised payments to a volunteer battalion. The Russian liberal online outlet Dozhd reported on August 1 that the 40 servicemembers of the Chuvash “Atal” Volunteer Battalion have yet to receive payments for their enlistment and training period prior to deployment to Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1

 

[theprestige]

A forty-soldier "battalion". Usually it's about a thousand-soldier formation. And Russia can't even afford to pay them. But maybe the Russian Army is still going strong, with unsuspected reserves of manpower still to draw on...

 

[Wildy]

Been reading various twitter threads about Russian soldiers. If the claims of pressuring conscripts with contracts is true then that can help explain the strange manpower numbers.

 

[dudalb]

A forty-soldier "battalion". Usually it's about a thousand-soldier formation. And Russia can't even afford to pay them. But maybe the Russian Army is still going strong, with unsuspected reserves of manpower still to draw on...

Hell, 40 men is about one third of a standard company.
I know that military units are always under book strength..they almost never have what they should have on paper..but this is taking it to new heights.

 

[Aridas]

And... update time.

Ukraine's army has regained already 53 (+7) settlements in Kherson Oblast as it continues slowly advancing in the south.

Information on regained land is reported only in coordination with GenStaff, after the army has full control there, a spokesman said.

Keep up the good work, Ukraine!