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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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I think ships will get through ok for a week or two then one will be hit by a missile and Russia will blame Ukraine
 
Russia's trying really hard to be at war with Ukraine without being at war with the world. But it's tricky, since the rest of the world isn't at war with Ukraine, and would like to keep trading with them.

It's also tricky that much of the western world is de facto at war with Russia over Ukraine. I wonder what would happen if NATO* committed to using its air power to vouchsafe Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea.
 
theprestige said:
Russia's trying really hard to be at war with Ukraine without being at war with the world. But it's tricky, since the rest of the world isn't at war with Ukraine, and would like to keep trading with them.

It's also tricky that much of the western world is de facto at war with Russia over Ukraine. I wonder what would happen if NATO* committed to using its air power to vouchsafe Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea.
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And there is this

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/europe/anatoly-chubais-hospitalized-intl/index.html

"neurological issues" and another Bulgarian arms depot has been sabotaged.

Could be a coincidence but it could also be Russia stepping up its undeclared war on the West. Both are within what it's done before (in fact by GRU Unit 29155)
 
No position update from Razoni or the tug sailing with it for over 3 hours.

Looks like they turned their AIS off or there are surprisingly few AIS stations in that part of the Black Sea
 
jimbob said:
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1554095299991375872?s=20&t=J4Ohzjf3YsqQtb3pnDp9Vg

I'll let you see the embedded video that Russia is using to claim the destruction of two HIMARS systems.

I doubt they were hidden on a first/second (UK / US) floor of an apartment

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Does anybody here speak Russian? This whole thing is just to retarded, even for Russia. That clip was part of a larger newscast and unless guy in uniform is actually saying this is footage of apartment dwelling HIMARS going boom I'm going to reserve judgement in favor of something simpler like intern using wrong clip or the clip being unrelated to HIMARS destruction claims.

In the same broadcast there's also mention of butterfly mines being recently dispersed by Ukraine. I'm willing to write this off as Russian propaganda but I'd still like to see an denial from Ukraine that they have or are using these mines. We encountered these mines at the beginning of the conflict and Russia was (supposedly) scattering them in playgrounds so we know they're evil.
 
Stout said:
Does anybody here speak Russian? This whole thing is just to retarded, even for Russia. That clip was part of a larger newscast and unless guy in uniform is actually saying this is footage of apartment dwelling HIMARS going boom I'm going to reserve judgement in favor of something simpler like intern using wrong clip or the clip being unrelated to HIMARS destruction claims. ...
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Thanks, I was thinking the same. This smacked of jimbob believing a poster on social media with 100% credulity, zero skepticism.
It's a favorite tactic of Russian propaganda, towards their home market, to make up, falsify or pull wildly out of context Western or Ukrainian clips and news and debunk them. I have a feeling it's the exact same kind of propaganda here, except the other way round (made up by some UA-side agency for Western consumption).
 
Oystein said:
Thanks, I was thinking the same. This smacked of jimbob believing a poster on social media with 100% credulity, zero skepticism.
It's a favorite tactic of Russian propaganda, towards their home market, to make up, falsify or pull wildly out of context Western or Ukrainian clips and news and debunk them. I have a feeling it's the exact same kind of propaganda here, except the other way round (made up by some UA-side agency for Western consumption).
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Well google translate describes it as that.

As does this

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2022-08-01/..._puskovye_ustanovki_himars_i_kompleks_harpoon
 
The latest US arms package for Ukraine has been announced.

From the Pentagon, via CNN:
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $550 million to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s seventeenth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.
Capabilities in this package include equipment the Ukrainians are using effectively to defend their country such as:
75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).​
 
jimbob said:
Well google translate describes it as that.

As does this

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2022-08-01/..._puskovye_ustanovki_himars_i_kompleks_harpoon
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I don't know how to google-translate the words spoken in the video.
The video obviously shows footage from several locations, of several different kinds of attacks - the strike on a concrete building, shelling of a field, and something with a tank from overhead, in addition to showing some debris of something somewhere.
How do you know the claim made in the video is that the strike on the building specifically shows an attack on HIMARS?
Yes, the written article talks of a couple of HIMARS destroyed - but it would not be unusual in an online news article that it has embedded a video with content only somewhat related, not showing exactly and only what the article talks about. In fact, I find it highly usual that online journalists cobble together videos and text that are only borderline related to one another.
 
Oystein said:
I don't know how to google-translate the words spoken in the video.
The video obviously shows footage from several locations, of several different kinds of attacks - the strike on a concrete building, shelling of a field, and something with a tank from overhead, in addition to showing some debris of something somewhere.
How do you know the claim made in the video is that the strike on the building specifically shows an attack on HIMARS?
Yes, the written article talks of a couple of HIMARS destroyed - but it would not be unusual in an online news article that it has embedded a video with content only somewhat related, not showing exactly and only what the article talks about. In fact, I find it highly usual that online journalists cobble together videos and text that are only borderline related to one another.
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The Google translate app in my phone transcribed it when I watched it on my laptop.
 
Interesting thread on long term impact to Russian army
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1554168802350342148

Heavy losses to what professional NCOs RS had, junior + field-grade officers means that the group of people who signed up in the last 10-15 years, when the military tried to reform and who knew something even a little different than 90s or Soviet military life, are gone
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Three British men accused of being mercenaries are to stand trial in a Russian proxy court in eastern Ukraine.

John Harding, Dylan Healy, and Andrew Hill will be tried in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, a breakaway region of Ukraine, Russian media said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62384631
 
To poke at a more general update regarding the Kherson counteroffensive -

Ukraine has taken back 46 villages in Kherson Oblast since start of counter-offensive.

Acting Governor of Kherson Oblast Dmytro Butrii reported the number, adding that some villages are "90% destroyed, and are still under shelling," as quoted by Interfax-Ukraine.
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Not as fast as pretty much any of us would prefer, I'm sure, but they are pushing forwards. A fair bit faster than Russia's pushing forward on the eastern front, for that matter, by the look of it.
 
Russia has reportedly doubled their forces around Kherson to around 25k to repel the counteroffensive (which would apparently never happen).

They continue to slowly advance towards Bakmut.

For a spent force, they seem to be able to call up significant reserves on one front and maintain their glacial pace of advance on another.
 
Seems like whackamole to me. Russia diverts their eastern forces to Kherson, and Ukraine will start clobbering Donetsk or push from Kharkiv. At least Russia has realized what's strategically important, but it might be too late if they can't maintain access to the city of Kherson.
 
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