The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[The Don]

How do you motivate soldiers to fight if you don't pay them?

Payment is one form of reward. For soldiers, providing them with comfortable uniforms, efficient and trustworthy weapons, and good food is another form of reward. But it sounds like the Russian conscripts are getting none of these. Don't the Russian officers realize they are heading for a mutiny?

How are the Wagner Group mercenaries being paid? Do they get paid in Roubles (which they can only spend in Russia), or do they get paid in a Western denomination?

A brief search online seems to indicate that Wagner Group mercenaries are paid in roubles because the pay is denominated in roubles first and then the equivalent USD value is given.

That isn't definitive though and it wouldn't surprise me to find out that senior personnel are paid in dollars or some other "hard" currency.

 

[Klimax]

Interesting development:
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551889838953095171

The removal of the pontoon bridge, the report of RU troops getting hit and moving towards Kup'yans'k, and the report about Studenok and Yaremivka indicates to me RuAF are shifting focus.

We have also seen increased activity south of Kharkiv city lately.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551899512175747072

What this means? I think it means Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut will not ever fall in to RU control.
A month ago I thought that there was a decent chance for RuAF to capture them.

 

[Michel H]

You linked articles about the Donbass oblasts. Did you read about the polls there done before Russia forced a brutal, military campaign and repression in 2014? This current invasion is not about Crimea.

And again, you have failed to explain just how you would determine which territories "don't want to be Ukrainian. Do you mean the territories held by illegal Russian forces in the summer if 2014, where those referenda were held? Then surely you will demand that Russia retreat from all territories they occupied this year - and NOT Ukraine ceding any - right?

I linked one article about referendums in Donbass in 2014, this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums.

Two brief (but revealing) excerpts from this article:

The results of the separatist referendums were not officially recognised by any government, ... The Russian government expressed "respect" for the results and urged a "civilised" implementation, and later announced recognition of the republics on 21 February 2022, becoming the first UN member state to do so.

and

Russian president Vladimir Putin publicly asked pro-Russian separatists to postpone the proposed referendums to create the necessary conditions for dialogue on 7 May. Despite Putin's comments, the self-proclaimed authorities of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic said they would still carry out the referendum.

I am not aware of any "brutal, military campaign and repression" by Russia in 2014. The way I view what happened then is Russia coming to the rescue of sincere Crimean separatists.

Then surely you will demand that Russia retreat from all territories they occupied this year - and NOT Ukraine ceding any - right?

Yes, this is right (although this is, of course, just a personal opinion of mine). I believe that Russia has some serious reponsibility in the current situation, and therefore shouldn't be rewarded too much. I would therefore grant independence from Ukraine to the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics with their border as they were before the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022.

I would not grant any expansion of these territories and I would also ask Russian forces to withdraw from southern Ukraine.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Russia announced it's pulling out of the ISS and will build their own Space Station.

But will it have blackjack and hookers?

 

[theprestige]

My guess is that the Wagner Group mercenaries are being paid primarily in comfort and promises. They're receiving a nominal paycheck in rubles, but. Their bosses are probably making sure they have better housing, food, and equipment than their regular army counterparts. They're probably getting better R&R opportunities from those bosses. And they're probably getting "shares" or other promises of future rewards, once the fighting is done and the fruits are plucked from the tree.

They're probably also getting "paid" with a cause they believe in. This has always been the greatest source of morale for soldiers. People will endure great hardship and mistreatment, if they believe it's for a good cause. I think even the Russian conscripts are being sustained in part by their conviction that this is all in some way for Russia.

What cause do Wagner group mercenaries believe in? I can't say. I imagine for some, the cause is no more than an opportunity to play soldier, indulge certain impulses and attitudes without fear of punishment. For others, I imagine it's the idea of a new Russia, along lines more to their liking, and in which they will have a place of importance. The Romans recruited soldiers for their legions by promising them land and citizenship and prosperity in the conquered regions. I imagine many Wagner mercenaries have been promised a similar place in the new Russia.

 

[Jimbo07]

Of course, the Russians haven't actually pulled out of the ISS, despite past and current comments. In fact, strictly speaking, they haven't fully pulled out, even past 2024. NASA has not been given formal notice of their withdrawal.

Interestingly, Rogozin has been relieved of his duties. Maybe years of kissing Putin's butt will land him a golden parachute.

I'm skeptical of Russia's ability to significantly advance its space program from here. Despite petro-bucks, my suspicion is that their space program is better off with American participation than without. They had years of delays just with the Nauka module, with no word on the status of modules for a new (or revamped) station. "Paper station" is the term I read. One thing I learned in school, and it remains today, is that everybody's got a PowerPoint spaceship!

 

[Dave Rogers]

What cause do Wagner group mercenaries believe in?

Freedom, justice, democracy, egalitarianism and re-housing abandoned puppies.

(Just filling in for a certain member on enforced leave of absence.)

Dave

 

[crescent]

....my suspicion is that their space program is better off with American participation than without.

That's my impression as well. The U.S. subsidizes the Russian space program by over paying for rides in the Soyuz rockets. The plan seems to be that the U.S. will continue to buy such rides until the U.S./Europe have two fully certified human-rated launch systems. That way, if one of the systems is found to have some sort of flaw and gets grounded, we still have the other.

So the one system is SpaceX Crew Dragon - that's fully certified.
The other is the Boeing Starliner - behind schedule, but progressing such that it is clear that it will get certified sometime in the next year or two.

At that point the Russians lose an important subsidy for their space program, and a fair bit of leverage. They'll make some changes to adjust to that, but any remaining Ukraine-related sanctions could make that difficult.

 

[sackett]

Let's have a script conference!

A brief search online seems to indicate that Wagner Group mercenaries are paid in roubles because the pay is denominated in roubles first and then the equivalent USD value is given.

That isn't definitive though and it wouldn't surprise me to find out that senior personnel are paid in dollars or some other "hard" currency.

Pas d'argent, pas de Suisses.

Although the Wagner boys have no borders to retreat behind, so it would be interesting to watch if they tried to withhold services. Would we see a bit of persuasion applied by Internal Security troops? Or a little whiff of civil war? Or a bit of collusion between the two sides?

Hey, it's Russian history!

 

[Jimbo07]

That's my impression as well. The U.S. subsidizes the Russian space program by over paying for rides in the Soyuz rockets. The plan seems to be that the U.S. will continue to buy such rides until the U.S./Europe have two fully certified human-rated launch systems...

...the Russians lose an important subsidy for their space program, and a fair bit of leverage. They'll make some changes to adjust to that, but any remaining Ukraine-related sanctions could make that difficult.

Strictly speaking, SpaceX is already their backup to Soyuz, and they've started shunting future rides over. More importantly is station reboost, which happens through the Russian segment. They tested using a Cygnus spacecraft for reboost, but for now, the Russian segment is more important in that regard.

The biggest loss to Russia will be prestige. They're not going to be regarded as a major spacefaring power after ISS. The Chinese are advancing beyond their need for Russian know-how. They had to bootstrap by copying some Russian ideas, but the Shenzhou spacecraft is roomier than Soyuz, and they're currently building a space station independently (which is also funded).

 

[lomiller]

I am not aware of any "brutal, military campaign and repression" by Russia in 2014.

Why bother with 2014 when we can see Russia targeting civilians on a massive scale depopulating entire cities so they can replace the population there and sending everyone who doesn't agree with them to concentration camps. Even if you are dumb enough top believe Russian propaganda from 2014, the current campaign of ethnic cleansing is unmistakable.

 

[Mike!]

Freedom, justice, democracy, egalitarianism and re-housing abandoned puppies.

(Just filling in for a certain member on enforced leave of absence.)

Dave

You know, the same things as these guys...

 

[timhau]

Why bother with 2014 when we can see Russia targeting civilians on a massive scale depopulating entire cities so they can replace the population there and sending everyone who doesn't agree with them to concentration camps. Even if you are dumb enough top believe Russian propaganda from 2014, the current campaign of ethnic cleansing is unmistakable.

Why bother when he's not aware of any "brutal, military campaign and repression" by the Third Reich?

 

[crescent]

A recent opinion poll on territorial concessions (Google translated):

DYNAMICS OF READINESS FOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS FOR THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE END TO THE WAR: RESULTS OF A TELEPHONE SURVEY CONDUCTED ON JULY 6-20, 2022

...for 84% of respondents, no territorial concessions are acceptable . Only 10% believe that in order to achieve peace and preserve independence, it is possible to give up some territories. Compared to May, the mood of the population has practically not changed.

Even among residents of the East [1] , which is currently experiencing intense fighting, 77% are against concessions (ready for concessions - only 16%), and among residents of the South - 82% are against concessions (ready - only 10%). It is worth noting that in the period from May to July in the East, from 68% to 77%, there were more people who are against any concessions (there were no significant changes in other regions).

Separately, we note that among the respondents who lived in the territory that was occupied after February 24, and who moved to the territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine, only 17% are in favor of territorial concessions until February 24. Instead, 82% believe that there should be no territorial concessions.

As you can see, among Russian-speaking Ukrainians, 76% are against territorial concessions (14% support it). Among Russian-speaking Russians, the overwhelming majority - 68% - oppose any concessions (19% support).

It seems that Ukraine does not much seem to to want to give up the fight, and even those from the Russian-speaking east maintain this mindset.

 

[Michel H]

Why bother with 2014 when we can see Russia targeting civilians on a massive scale depopulating entire cities so they can replace the population there and sending everyone who doesn't agree with them to concentration camps. Even if you are dumb enough top believe Russian propaganda from 2014, the current campaign of ethnic cleansing is unmistakable.

My goal is certainly not to support what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine.

The problem here is that persecution by Ukraine and its Western supporters (trying to absurdly impose an Ukrainian Crimea, clearly against the will of the citizens of Crimea, and inflicting many sanctions to both Crimea and Russia) generates anger in Russia, and another kind of persecution which may be considered as even worse.

Russia and China seem to have had enough of Western sanctions and arrogance (think for example of how the Trump administration destroyed Huawei as a cell phone maker by refusing to provide the necessary computer chips) and they are becoming more and more powerful and assertive.

Even if you think that what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine is very bad and wrong (and I won't disagree with you. Note, however, that Russia has an official policy of not attacking civilian targets. Did NATO have a policy of not attacking civilian targets during the Kosovo war in 1999? Longer ago, did the Allies, during WW2, have a policy of not attacking civilian targets?), that doesn't mean that Ukraine should refuse any concession (ceding territory or lifting sanctions), because Ukraine and its backers created the initial poison by refusing to abide by the wishes of Crimea (and the eastern republics), and inflicting many sanctions.

I believe that the (simple) solution of this crisis is to accept that Crimea belongs to Russia, and that the two Donbass republics are independent (in addition to lifting sanctions) because this is what the local population wants.

When you adopt these important principles of self-determination, you also automatically protect Taiwan, which is currently threatened by mainland China, with a possibility of destruction of its computer chip industry, which would create an additional economic crisis when there is already a shortage.

 

[Michel H]

A recent opinion poll on territorial concessions (Google translated):

DYNAMICS OF READINESS FOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS FOR THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE END TO THE WAR: RESULTS OF A TELEPHONE SURVEY CONDUCTED ON JULY 6-20, 2022






It seems that Ukraine does not much seem to to want to give up the fight, and even those from the Russian-speaking east maintain this mindset.

This is actually correct.

But I believe that, in this case, the leaders of Ukraine should renounce Crimea and eastern Donbass, and explain to the population why such a decision is actually good for them, protects them and even perhaps saves their lives, when the already long list of killed, injured and costly destructions in Ukraine becomes longer every day.

Having pro-Russian territories is actually not a present for Ukraine, because this leads to constant in-fighting and tensions. Without these territories, Ukraine could be more united, prosperous and happy.

Ukraine should also (in my opinion) be neutral, and become a kind of prosperous Switzerland of eastern Europe, benefitting from both Western technology and Russian oil and gas.

 

[Andy_Ross]

This is actually correct.

But I believe that, in this case, the leaders of Ukraine should renounce Crimea and eastern Donbass, and explain to the population why such a decision is actually good for them, protects them and even perhaps saves their lives, when the already long list of killed, injured and costly destructions in Ukraine becomes longer every day.

Having pro-Russian territories is actually not a present for Ukraine, because this leads to constant in-fighting and tensions. Without these territories, Ukraine could be more united, prosperous and happy.

They should also (in my opinion) be neutral, and become a kind of prosperous Switzerland of eastern Europe, benefitting from both Western technology and Russian oil and gas.

Or, they could keep killing Russian soldiers and destroying their equipment until the run back to Russia.

 

[Michel H]

Or, they could keep killing Russian soldiers and destroying their equipment until the run back to Russia.

Nobody knows how the battle would evolve, and how it would end, because the Russians are very determined too.

There is a danger of mutual destruction, which might extend far beyond Ukraine (and has actually already begun). And the Americans may have to deal with Taiwan too.

In addition, even if Ukraine was somehow able to conquer Crimea (for example, which seems unlikely), this would probably just lead to constant fighting between Kiev's central government and Crimean authorities and population.

 

[lobosrul5]

My goal is certainly not to support what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine.

The problem here is that persecution by Ukraine and its Western supporters (trying to absurdly impose an Ukrainian Crimea, clearly against the will of the citizens of Crimea, and inflicting many sanctions to both Crimea and Russia) generates anger in Russia, and another kind of persecution which may be considered as even worse.

Russia and China seem to have had enough of Western sanctions and arrogance (think for example of how the Trump administration destroyed Huawei as a cell phone maker by refusing to provide the necessary computer chips) and they are becoming more and more powerful and assertive.

Even if you think that what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine is very bad and wrong (and I won't disagree with you. Note, however, that Russia has an official policy of not attacking civilian targets. Did NATO have a policy of not attacking civilian targets during the Kosovo war in 1999? Longer ago, did the Allies, during WW2, have a policy of not attacking civilian targets?), that doesn't mean that Ukraine should refuse any concession (ceding territory or lifting sanctions), because Ukraine and its backers created the initial poison by refusing to abide by the wishes of Crimea (and the eastern republics), and inflicting many sanctions.

I believe that the (simple) solution of this crisis is to accept that Crimea belongs to Russia, and that the two Donbass republics are independent (in addition to lifting sanctions) because this is what the local population wants.

When you adopt these important principles of self-determination, you also automatically protect Taiwan, which is currently threatened by mainland China, with a possibility of destruction of its computer chip industry, which would create an additional economic crisis when there is already a shortage.

Right right every single thing "the west" does is bad, and poor put upon Russia has no choice but to invade a sovereign nation, and poor poor China is totally justified in invading Taiwan because the USA put sanctions on a company caught putting backdoors into their phones.*

Oh right, the allies killed some civilians 80 years ago so whatever Russia does in Ukraine is fair game. If its their policy to not kill civilians, its a policy that they are really bad at following. Missile hits against apartment blocks and hospitals seem rather unlikely to be a mistake IMO.

*Just a slight point of correction, Trump actually weakened the sanctions against them.

ETA: if you think Russia is so great, why not emigrate?

 

[Michel H]

Right right every single thing "the west" does is bad, and poor put upon Russia has no choice but to invade a sovereign nation, and poor poor China is totally justified in invading Taiwan because the USA put sanctions on a company caught putting backdoors into their phones.*

Oh right, the allies killed some civilians 80 years ago so whatever Russia does in Ukraine is fair game.

*Just a slight point of correction, Trump actually weakened the sanctions against them.

ETA: if you think Russia is so great, why not emigrate?

This wasn't the message I was trying to convey:

My goal is certainly not to support what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine.
...
Even if you think that what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine is very bad and wrong (and I won't disagree with you. ...)