The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Andy_Ross]

The Royal Navy are training Ukrainian navy to operate Sandown Class Minehunter vessels, ahead of the sale of two such vessels in a deal agreed last year.

They are training somewhere off the west coast of Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-62255113

 

[Craig4]

What am I missing here? What is it an A-10 is going to do flying in the current Air Defense environment that the planes Ukraine already has can't? The air remains contested for both sides. That won't change in Ukraine's favor until they have the capability to suppress Russian air defense. At the point the Ukrainians can do that, they'll be able to attack with their own aircraft.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

Why do you think they would let themselves get in to fighting like that?
Remember they are NATO trained and will not fight that kind of war. There is a reason they are not going on to the offensive yet.

I have no idea what kind of tactics the AFU should be ideally using. But I don't think that the RuAF wanted to get into these meatgrinder fight. They got it nevertheless.

 

[lobosrul5]

What am I missing here? What is it an A-10 is going to do flying in the current Air Defense environment that the planes Ukraine already has can't? The air remains contested for both sides. That won't change in Ukraine's favor until they have the capability to suppress Russian air defense. At the point the Ukrainians can do that, they'll be able to attack with their own aircraft.

The Ukrainians have very few combat aircraft left. And, the A-10's can carry NATO AGM's. I don't believe ex-USSR planes can.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I have no idea what kind of tactics the AFU should be ideally using. But I don't think that the RuAF wanted to get into these meatgrinder fight. They got it nevertheless.

They had no option, it's all they are capable of.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I'm trying to understand CE's narrative about HIMARS. One of the claims floating around is that the weapons themselves are being crewed and commanded by NATO troops and officers, not by Ukrainians.

So the premise is that these NATO soldiers, backed by NATO reconnaissance, are somehow positioning their weapons so close to the front that the Russians can not only hit them, but can even get close enough to confirm the kill.

But if that's the case, why are the Russians making such slow progress? If they're able to just steamroll the Ukrainians between them and such things as NATO-operated HIMARS, why aren't they doing more steamrolling across the board? Where are the territorial gains, the significant advances, that must be part and parcel of overrunning the Ukrainian rear areas?

The Russians can hit everything inside the Ukraine, and in Italy, and in Germany, etc. As I told you before, the Rules of Engagement are to harm civilians as few as possible. That's why it takes "that long" instead of just flattening the field, as, as I said, "Great Britain" did in Dresden in WWII or your government did in Mosul or Fallujah and countless other places like the country of Vietnam.

Shoigu announced at his recent visit in the Donbass that the targets have just changed with the soon or already happened arrival of long-range missiles for the HIMARS system. If they think or see that it happened, they will move the frontline to 300km away from Russia and not leave it at taking the Donbass.

And you should, if you really want to understand the situation, see the bigger picture which is not about the Ukraine as such at all. I liked what the very sharp-tongued Maria Zakharova, Lavrov's office speaker, said a day or two ago about US administration’s statements on “Russia’s isolation”.

It is right, and these clowns running "the West" are completely misjudging the situation and relaying it down to the parrots of their third-class propaganda rags with no connection to reality.

Imagine that lady who is the spokesperson of the White House or something could even read a statement like Maria's (read it in full, can't hurt). Or if Sleepy "Repeat the Line" Joe could freely speak like what you can read in a random Putin talk. The difference is profound, and one side and its satellites is running against the wall, and it is not the Russians.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

The Ukraine have used better tactics and training and better weapons. When the offensive starts the Russians will be completely outgunned. Ukraine will be using better tactics, training and equipment.

I disagree at least on the weapons. I just don't see where for the largest part of this war where they've had better quality arms. Mostly it's been just the same stuff that the Russians have been using, only older and less upgraded - if that. The exceptions have been the Bayraktars, which seem to have lost their sting, and the infantry AT-Weapons (Stugna, Javelin, NLAW).

Recently they aquired some really good guns though.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

They had no option, it's all they are capable of.

And I am just not sure that the AFU has greatly better options.

 

[jimbob]

What am I missing here? What is it an A-10 is going to do flying in the current Air Defense environment that the planes Ukraine already has can't? The air remains contested for both sides. That won't change in Ukraine's favor until they have the capability to suppress Russian air defense. At the point the Ukrainians can do that, they'll be able to attack with their own aircraft.

The Ukrainians have very few combat aircraft left. And, the A-10's can carry NATO AGM's. I don't believe ex-USSR planes can.

The A10 might be a bit more survivable than the Soviet equivalent, the Su-25. And great for attacking ISIL or the Taliban but not somewhere with many different types of SAM and even jet fighters.

I have no idea what kind of tactics the AFU should be ideally using. But I don't think that the RuAF wanted to get into these meatgrinder fight. They got it nevertheless.

As Captain_Swoop said, Russia didn't have any option. They haven't invested in training and fixing that would take a huge amount of work. They don't have any cadre to start the training or any quick way to actually get to a cadre in the first place.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

So the premise is that these NATO soldiers, backed by NATO reconnaissance, are somehow positioning their weapons so close to the front that the Russians can not only hit them, but can even get close enough to confirm the kill.

That is certainly not out of the question, as we have seen some strikes that went fairly deep into russian-controlled territory.

But I cannot help you with the rest. At all.

 

[Oystein]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...-warplanes-to-ukraine-and-training-its-pilots

in case someone can't get by NY Times soft paywall:

https://www.republicworld.com/world...to-ukraine-know-all-about-it-articleshow.html

.... /me whistles nonchalantly

The only interesting question in this context is: Does Ukraine want any A-10s?
According to the NYT article, launching this idea is merely a "test balloon". I can have several different ideas as to what this balloon is intended to test; one of them being whether UA responds with interest; others could be test how certain Republican senators react to such ideas, and such ideas might eventually not even involve A-10s.

 

[Doubt]

They're pretty cool planes. The National Guard uses our local airport for short take-off and landing exercises so I get to see them quite often.

It's my understanding that the US is phasing them out so letting Ukraine have some of them shouldn't be a big deal.

The air force has been planning to phase them out for about 30 years now. First, the F-16s were to replace them. Except they could not do the job nearly as well. Then the F-35 was supposed to replace them. That idea ended about the same time the first big orders for the F-35 went through. Now they are supposed to be developing a new plane, which we won't see any time soon.

They are old and the air frames don't last forever. But there really is nothing to replace them with right now. They won't be sold to anyone any time soon.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

As Captain_Swoop said, Russia didn't have any option. They haven't invested in training and fixing that would take a huge amount of work. They don't have any cadre to start the training or any quick way to actually get to a cadre in the first place.

But what options does the AFU have here? And despite not being an expert on these matters, I am not seeing it at all.

 

[Andy_Ross]

And I am just not sure that the AFU has greatly better options.

Then you haven't been paying attention.
Ukraine forces have been trained in the UK since 2014.Thousands of officers and NCOs learning modern tactics and using modern equipment.
At the moment the British Army is running tailored British Army infantry battle courses. They are training 10,000 over the next few months. Specialist troops are also being trained at various locations in the UK in artillery, field engineering, communications, recon and combat medic specialisations.
Higher level officers are in the USA getting staff training.

They are not going to fight a moronic 'meat grinder' war. They are letting the Russians do that.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The A10 might be a bit more survivable than the Soviet equivalent, the Su-25. And great for attacking ISIL or the Taliban but not somewhere with many different types of SAM and even jet fighters.






As Captain_Swoop said, Russia didn't have any option. They haven't invested in training and fixing that would take a huge amount of work. They don't have any cadre to start the training or any quick way to actually get to a cadre in the first place.

Russia has been stripping it's experienced trainers out to send them in to battle. They are doing pretty much what the Germans did to their pilot training squadrons in WW2.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The air force has been planning to phase them out for about 30 years now. First, the F-16s were to replace them. Except they could not do the job nearly as well. Then the F-35 was supposed to replace them. That idea ended about the same time the first big orders for the F-35 went through. Now they are supposed to be developing a new plane, which we won't see any time soon.

They are old and the air frames don't last forever. But there really is nothing to replace them with right now. They won't be sold to anyone any time soon.

They would be shot out of the sky over Ukraine at the moment. They cannot survive unless the Russian AA is taken out.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Then you haven't been paying attention.
Ukraine forces have been trained in the UK since 2014.Thousands of officers and NCOs learning modern tactics and using modern equipment.
At the moment the British Army is running tailored British Army infantry battle courses. They are training 10,000 over the next few months. Specialist troops are also being trained at various locations in the UK in artillery, field engineering, communications, recon and combat medic specialisations.

Nice that you admit that. A war party since eight years.

 

[Andy_Ross]

But what options does the AFU have here? And despite not being an expert on these matters, I am not seeing it at all.

Options for what?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Nice that you admit that. A war party since eight years.

It's not a secret.
If Russia had spent some time sorting out the endemic corruption in it's military and modernising it's training they wouldn't be in the situation they are at the moment.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

Options for what?

Attacking and taking territory, without it devolving into either Cringe-Krieg or meatgrinder tactics.