The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[a_unique_person]

A captured Russian drone was inspected and one of it's sensors detects mobile phone signals. 21st century warfare.

 

[The Don]

The Russian looting continues:

Russia is looting $600m (£500m) worth of steel from plants and ports in Ukraine, according to the boss of Ukraine's largest steel firm Metinvest.

The firm owns the Azovstal plant that became the last holdout of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians during the devastation of the city of Mariupol.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62252704

I'm sure pro-Russians would claim that the steel hasn't been stolen or that the £500m is being raised to reinvest in rebuilding Mariupol.

 

[Aridas]

To poke at another unpleasant thing noted at ISW -

Russian forces may be storing heavy military equipment in the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to protect it from Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian state energy enterprise Energoatom reported that Russian forces demanded access to the engine rooms of reactors 1, 2, and 3 on July 20 and transferred 14 pieces of heavy military equipment and ammunition to the engine room of reactor 2 on July 21.[26] Energoatom reported that the Russian equipment is placed closed to highly combustible materials and makes the engine room inaccessible to emergency services in case of a fire. Energoatom warned that the detonation of the Russian ammunition at the Zaporizhzhia NPP would cause a disaster on the same scale as the Chernobyl disaster.[27]

Yet more evidence that Russia is fundamentally weak and terroristic.

Either way, seems like the Russian shelling has decreased quite significantly since HIMARS started blowing up lots of high value targets, probably both because of immediate scarcities and because the main way that the Russians have to counter such is to try to move their supply stockpiles waaaay back and lengthen their truck trips immensely. At last check, Ukraine's been especially targeting the Russian logistics vehicles, so those are stretched very thin, relatively speaking. Unless something notable changes, Russia's unlikely to even be able to take much more ground and a major and effective Ukrainian counter offensive just keeps getting much more likely.

 

[arthwollipot]

Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Source

 

[The Don]

Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Source

Very encouraging - if true.

The problem is that various experts have been making similar statements for a considerable amount of time and Russia continues to throw men and materiel into the meat grinder.

Maybe Captain Swoop is right and the collapse of Russian forces when it happens will be swift - I hope so, I fear not and Russia will find a way to keep throwing people into the war and continue their terror attacks throughout Ukraine.

 

[arthwollipot]

Truth is indeed the first casualty of war, but I trust these sources more than I trust any source Childlike Empress has posted.

 

[arthwollipot]

Also, I just saw this:

Google to be banned in occupied Donetsk by pro-Russian regime

Google is to be banned in the occupied Donetsk region of Ukraine for allegedly promoting “terrorism and violence against all Russians”.


Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), posted to Telegram to say:

The inhuman propaganda of Ukraine and the west has long crossed all boundaries. There is a real persecution of Russians, the imposition of lies and disinformation.

At the forefront of information technology in this regard is the Google search engine, which openly, on the orders of its curators from the US government, promotes terrorism and violence against all Russians, and especially the population of Donbas.

It didn’t start yesterday. I think that this situation should no longer be put up with. We have decided to block Google on the territory of the DPR. This is what they do in any society with criminals: they are isolated from other people.

If Google stops pursuing its criminal policy and returns to the mainstream of law, morality and common sense, there will be no obstacles for its work.​

Russia, Syria and North Korea are the only UN member states to recognise the DPR as a legitimate authority.

Source

 

[The Don]

Truth is indeed the first casualty of war, but I trust these sources more than I trust any source Childlike Empress has posted.

I don't doubt that MI6 Chief Richard Moore said these things or that these things represent MI6's assessment of the situation based on the information that they have and the model they've used for their assessment.

I'm questioning whether the underlying information is accurate (perhaps they have underestimated the depth of Russia's reserves) and/or they have based their assessments on Western operating methods whereas Russia may be able to continue to operate somewhat effectively even when significantly degraded.

For months now we've been told that a significant proportion of Russian BTGs are out of operation and those that aren't are severely degraded - and yet they still seem to grind on. Yes, it's on small front, yes the gains are small and slowly acquired, but there doesn't seem to have been a collapse of morale and they continue to try to push on.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I don't doubt that MI6 Chief Richard Moore said these things or that these things represent MI6's assessment of the situation based on the information that they have and the model they've used for their assessment.

I'm questioning whether the underlying information is accurate (perhaps they have underestimated the depth of Russia's reserves) and/or they have based their assessments on Western operating methods whereas Russia may be able to continue to operate somewhat effectively even when significantly degraded.

For months now we've been told that a significant proportion of Russian BTGs are out of operation and those that aren't are severely degraded - and yet they still seem to grind on. Yes, it's on small front, yes the gains are small and slowly acquired, but there doesn't seem to have been a collapse of morale and they continue to try to push on.

They can only operate on a small front, they are only advancing the tiny distance they are because it degrades their forces and preserves those of Ukraine.
Their BTGs are decimated.

 

[The Don]

They can only operate on a small front, they are only advancing the tiny distance they are because it degrades their forces and preserves those of Ukraine.
Their BTGs are decimated.

Their collapse has been forecast for months by various experts and agencies and yet they seem to find a way to keep grinding on.

Are we absolutely sure that those experts have accurate information on which to base their assessments and that they're using accurate models on which to base their assessments ?

 

[Klimax]

I don't doubt that MI6 Chief Richard Moore said these things or that these things represent MI6's assessment of the situation based on the information that they have and the model they've used for their assessment.

I'm questioning whether the underlying information is accurate (perhaps they have underestimated the depth of Russia's reserves) and/or they have based their assessments on Western operating methods whereas Russia may be able to continue to operate somewhat effectively even when significantly degraded.

For months now we've been told that a significant proportion of Russian BTGs are out of operation and those that aren't are severely degraded - and yet they still seem to grind on. Yes, it's on small front, yes the gains are small and slowly acquired, but there doesn't seem to have been a collapse of morale and they continue to try to push on.

Can you see that grind without microscope? Did they get anywhere? No? Then how is it of any relevancy...

 

[Klimax]

Their collapse has been forecast for months by various experts and agencies and yet they seem to find a way to keep grinding on.

Are we absolutely sure that those experts have accurate information on which to base their assessments and that they're using accurate models on which to base their assessments ?

Unless you have better source than your doomscreams then yes.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Their collapse has been forecast for months by various experts and agencies and yet they seem to find a way to keep grinding on.

Are we absolutely sure that those experts have accurate information on which to base their assessments and that they're using accurate models on which to base their assessments ?

They all make it up as they go along.

Didn't you notice they had a big collapse? they had one recently when they retreated one from Snake Island.
Nothing much will happen until Ukraine switch over to an offensive.

 

[jimbob]

Very encouraging - if true.

The problem is that various experts have been making similar statements for a considerable amount of time and Russia continues to throw men and materiel into the meat grinder.

Maybe Captain Swoop is right and the collapse of Russian forces when it happens will be swift - I hope so, I fear not and Russia will find a way to keep throwing people into the war and continue their terror attacks throughout Ukraine.

Remember that Russian troops are people with families and social media.

Russia devotes a lot of effort into propaganda, but it's not the closed society of the USSR of 1982.

Morale is infectious, and things tend to look Okayish until they don't.

For example, there had been increasing rumbles of discontent with Johnson but he brazened it out until Sunak and Javid resigned.

Johnson still insisted he was fine but it looked increasingly hollow.

 

[Childlike Empress]

From today's daily report on the MoD Russia English-language Telegram channel:

[...] From July 5 to 20, 4 launching ramps and 1 reloading vehicle for the U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MRLS delivered to Ukraine were eliminated by high-precision ground- and air-based armament.

Among them, 2 launching ramps were destroyed near Malotaranovka, 1 HIMARS and 1 reloading vehicle was destroyed near Krasnoarmeysk, as well as 4th launching ramp at the eastern suburb of Konstantinovka (Donetsk People's Republic). [...]

 

[Childlike Empress]

Are we absolutely sure that those experts have accurate information on which to base their assessments and that they're using accurate models on which to base their assessments ?

We are absolutely sure that they are liars not to be trusted. Larry C. Johnson has a good take on the drivel the liar you have to pay for put out. Ends like this:

[...] Is Moore really this stupid? There are ample videos on Ukrainian social media of police chasing down civilians and forcing them to join up. There also are videos of units of Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbass laying down their weapons and refusing to accept orders which they believe are a guaranteed death sentence.

Here is a recent video of soldiers of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine complaining that the officers of the brigade beat their brother to death. Note, none are carrying weapons nor proudly wearing their uniform. You call this “high morale.”

[video embedded at link]

Since Richard Moore made these remarks at the Aspen Institute in Colorado, I must ask–is he high? Did he make a trip to one of the local marijuana shops and buy some potent ganja before making his remarks?

At some point the taxpayers in the United Kingdom and the United States need to demand that their respective intelligence organizations stop running influence operations against their own people and start doing the job for which they are being overpaid to do.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Remember that Russian troops are people with families and social media.

Russia devotes a lot of effort into propaganda, but it's not the closed society of the USSR of 1982.

Morale is infectious, and things tend to look Okayish until they don't.

For example, there had been increasing rumbles of discontent with Johnson but he brazened it out until Sunak and Javid resigned.

Johnson still insisted he was fine but it looked increasingly hollow.

When and why do men run away in battle?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

From today's daily report ...

Do you think it's true?

 

[Andy_Ross]

They seem to have lost more than they were supplied with and they are still shooting.

 

[The Don]

Can you see that grind without microscope? Did they get anywhere? No? Then how is it of any relevancy...

Yes, they managed to take Lysychansk and Severodonetsk and are grinding towards Bakhmut from three directions.

It is relevant because Russia currently holds 20% of Ukraine, is able to lay waste to anywhere within artillery range and is carrying out terror attacks throughout the rest of Ukraine with longer range weapons.