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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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Captain_Swoop said:
Quality is a big force multiplier. That 'wisdom' seems to forget
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The counter wisdom is that governments, impressed by promises of quality, use it as an excuse for defence budget cuts, ignoring recruiting issues, etc.

If Vlad is willing to keep feeding men into the meat grinder (50,000 dead by one recent estimate), though, you're betting big on the quality of your weapons!
 
Jimbo07 said:
The counter wisdom is that governments, impressed by promises of quality, use it as an excuse for defence budget cuts, ignoring recruiting issues, etc.

If Vlad is willing to keep feeding men into the meat grinder (50,000 dead by one recent estimate), though, you're betting big on the quality of your weapons!
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50K Russians? Whooie! I'd really like to see some sources.

This isn't anybody's first rodeo, after all. Numbers are like bullets. A helluva lot of them are fired off aimlessly and never hit the mark.
 
The Don said:
No I don't, but I do think that people who think that Russian collapse is imminent, that they are about to run out of men and materiel soon or that any counter attack won't be hard fought are being overly optimistic.

The Russians are preparing to throw yet more men and materiel against Ukraine. They certainly have the money to do it (in part due to the EU's reliance on Russian fossil fuels) and they seem to have vast reserves of (outdated) equipment. Time will tell whether they will be successful in getting the manpower.



That's exactly the point I was trying to make, that HIMARS would be used against distant, high value targets.

Meanwhile at some point in time Ukraine will have to counter-attack to start to regain the territory currently under Russian control. Conventional wisdom is that you need a 3-5 times manpower advantage to attack.
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Remember that the USSR had problems with a far less intense war in Afghanistan and far fewer casualties.

Russia is not the USSR. And it does have problems with recruitment and desertion.

Yes it is still powerful, but, taking the artillery shell stockpile for example, it doesn't matter much if the shells don't get to the guns. If they have to move the depots twice as far from the guns then they'll be able to supply them only at about half the rate - possibly less due to the longer truck journeys and the logistics constraints of supplying those trucks as well.
 
Jimbo07 said:
The counter wisdom is that governments, impressed by promises of quality, use it as an excuse for defence budget cuts, ignoring recruiting issues, etc.

If Vlad is willing to keep feeding men into the meat grinder (50,000 dead by one recent estimate), though, you're betting big on the quality of your weapons!
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But he can only push **** in and the quality can only fall.
We know nothing he has can stand up to nato weapons, training or tactics.
 
jimbob said:
Remember that the USSR had problems with a far less intense war in Afghanistan and far fewer casualties.

Russia is not the USSR. And it does have problems with recruitment and desertion.

Yes it is still powerful, but, taking the artillery shell stockpile for example, it doesn't matter much if the shells don't get to the guns. If they have to move the depots twice as far from the guns then they'll be able to supply them only at about half the rate - possibly less due to the longer truck journeys and the logistics constraints of supplying those trucks as well.
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It matters even less if they are just randomly firing them off in th general direction of the enemy.
 
Russia's military focus in Ukraine is no longer "only" the east of the country, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said.

In an interview with Russian state media, he implied Moscow's strategy had changed after the West supplied Ukraine with longer-range weapons.

Russia would now have to push Ukrainian forces further from the front line to ensure its own security

"We cannot allow the part of Ukraine controlled by [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky... to possess weapons that would pose a direct threat to our territory," Mr Lavrov said in the interview with Margarita Simonyan - a well-known commentator on Russian TV and editor-in-chief of broadcaster RT.

"The geography is different now," he said, naming the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as Russia's latest objectives.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62231936
 
Oystein said:
Russian nuclear doctrine does not - I repeat: NOT - trigger a nuclear response if merely some "Russian" territory is at risk.

Russian doctrine knows four triggers:
A multi-missile launch against Russia is detected and it can't be ruled out it's nuclear
A hostile nuke actually explodes in Russia
An attack on the Russian nuclear infrastructure that threatens Russia's nuclear strike capability
An existential threat to the existence of Russia

None of those applies to the loss of territory, not even legitimate territory, at the periphery due to conventional warfare.
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I don't know....After seeing their military fail in the first two phases that the US is demonstrably good at....it seems a NATO conventional response could cause a rapid deterioration in their conventional capability.... maybe to the extent it is an existential threat
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Russia's military focus in Ukraine is no longer "only" the east of the country, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said.

In an interview with Russian state media, he implied Moscow's strategy had changed after the West supplied Ukraine with longer-range weapons.

Russia would now have to push Ukrainian forces further from the front line to ensure its own security



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62231936
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This argument has been advanced by appeasers such as John Mearsheimer as a reason why we shouldn't give Ukraine long-range weapons. But of course this is begging the question of whether it's even possible for Russia to make significant additional territorial gains, especially with more and more HIMARS and M270s coming online.
 
Looks like a third one of your Wunderwaffe HIMARS made "boom" in a way it wasn't designed to. Interesting eight minutes video about that:


In other news, it seems like Siversk has been taken over by the LPR opolchenie.
 
The Don said:
Do they have the volume of missiles to use it as general purpose artillery though ?
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Why would you need that? What for? Are you firing them randomly like some stupid Grad? Where the hell you have left your brain? Just try to use it for once! You use M777, CAESAR, SpH-200 and Krabs for artillery missions.

Just remember following equation:
no ammo + no supplies + no fuel + no command + no EW and radars = no army

That's all you need.

a_unique_person said:
I find it very hard to get reliable information on the conflict. There is so much misinformation and clickbait fiction that it's hard to tell what is actually going on.
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Just use my set of resources and it will be prefiltered for you. All that is left is just to use your brain and skeptical thinking. (Also Igor Girkin and similar milbloggers are pretty good resource...)

The Don said:
No I don't, but I do think that people who think that Russian collapse is imminent, that they are about to run out of men and materiel soon or that any counter attack won't be hard fought are being overly optimistic.
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Just target practice. If those Russians make it to that front line... while facing western weaponry and ISR. (South Ukraine is under full NATO coverage)

The Russians are preparing to throw yet more men and materiel against Ukraine. They certainly have the money to do it (in part due to the EU's reliance on Russian fossil fuels) and they seem to have vast reserves of (outdated) equipment. Time will tell whether they will be successful in getting the manpower.
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Scrap metal, broken crap if it even makes it there. Ukraine already have plenty of experience how to deal with it. (See Kiev Rush)

That's exactly the point I was trying to make, that HIMARS would be used against distant, high value targets.

Meanwhile at some point in time Ukraine will have to counter-attack to start to regain the territory currently under Russian control. Conventional wisdom is that you need a 3-5 times manpower advantage to attack.
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That assumes equipment is in working condition and supplies are intact. neither is true for Russain forces in South.
 
Childlike Empress said:
Looks like a third one of your Wunderwaffe HIMARS made "boom" in a way it wasn't designed to. Interesting eight minutes video about that:


In other news, it seems like Siversk has been taken over by the LPR opolchenie.
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Hilariously wrong. Wagner Group on HIMARS
But the highlight of our discussion among the fighters was the alleged destruction of HIMARS yesterday, where in reality a timber truck was destroyed that was carrying logs to the frontline of UAF for strengthening of their positions.
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As always you push blatantly idiotic crap and lies. Get better, material, it is boring.
 
I think this Susan Ivanova quote from "Babylon 5" has application here:

I know, I know. It's a Russian thing. When we're about to do something stupid, we like to catalog the full extent of our stupidity for future reference.
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jimbob said:
Looks like Erdogan has clearly demonstrated the difference in power between Russia and Turkey since the start of the war.

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1549487286966009858



ETA video of meeting 58 seconds long
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Putin is infamous for letting international guests wait for hours, including "the pope". Erdogan letting him wait 50 seconds was likely a practical joke. ;)

Funny video though.

edit: I don't know if that is from the trilateral meeting between Erdogan, Putin and the Ayatollah Khamenei that happened in Istanbul around that time. They discussed ending the "Syrian conflict" and that was where the music played.
 
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The Don said:
At the typical ratios that'd be 10-15 thousand dead, 35-40 thousand injured.
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Probably on the higher end of that. There is plenty of evidence that medical care is not the best in the Russian army.
 
Childlike Empress said:
edit: I don't know if that is from the trilateral meeting between Erdogan, Putin and the Ayatollah Khamenei that happened in Istanbul around that time. They discussed ending the "Syrian conflict" and that was where the music played.
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Correction: The meeting was in Teheran on July 19, and yes, that scene is from that meeting. "Funny" how that context is omitted from many of the "western" media "sources".

 
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