Poland is zero.
Belarus is low IMO.
However, one country was used by Russia as a means to invade Ukraine and continues to be used to launch missiles into Ukraine.
-
Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4
- Status
Poland is zero.
Belarus is low IMO.
However, one country was used by Russia as a means to invade Ukraine and continues to be used to launch missiles into Ukraine.
Jack by the hedge
Safely Ignored
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2009
- Messages
- 27,256
If it helps, I can fill in what you missed: He doesn't tell you what you want to hear.
You're welcome.
sarge
Penultimate Amazing
An armed, squad-deployable drone would not be a toy (sic) aeroplane, and infantry squads make such decisions all the time.
Squads don’t carry mortars. Mortars are in a separate platoon. Squads carry mortar rounds to increase the basic load of mortar rounds for the company’s mortar platoon.
Two reasonable scenarios…..squads receive an additional squad member OR one of the two saw gunners or grenadiers become drone operators.
I don’t believe it would, as I already posted. I was responding to your ‘sci-fi gaming’ comment. It is not. That it is unlikely doesn’t make it remotely sci-if nonsense.
Protracted wars always bring rapid innovation.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Yes, be sure not to criticise the quality of the analysis, or to try and question the information on which the analysis is based, question the tone.
Well but you didn't specifically say anything about the quality of his analysis as well. The lame jokes about Uncle Luka's heritage made me leave 8 minutes in.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Yeah, and the other country is used by NATO to funnel weapons and mercenaries into the Ukraine. I see the propability of Belarus invading the Ukraine as zero, while the propability of Poland invading the Ukraine is higher than low. There are some unpaid bills, btw. Not unlikely that Poland will gain land in the South in exchange for some in the West. Look it up.
Poland will not invade Ukraine, despite Putin's attempt to carve Ukraine up with Poland which probably would have too many accurate memories of Stalin's attempts to do similar to Poland with Germany.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-poland-sikorski-idUKKCN0I925D20141021
Belarus might or might not try to launch an invasion. it depends on how much power Putin has over the Belarusian regime and the risk to the regime
Jack by the hedge
Safely Ignored
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2009
- Messages
- 27,256
Those who could bring themselves to watch more than 8 minutes of the recent Perun video would have seen the possibility of Belarus invading given consideration.
Not Russian propaganda/didn't watch: His conclusion was that with its barely-funded military, doing nothing while leaving open the remote possibility that it just might try something was likely Belarus's best option in terms of tying up Ukrainian defences at a bearable cost to itself.
Not Russian propaganda/didn't watch: His conclusion was that with its barely-funded military, doing nothing while leaving open the remote possibility that it just might try something was likely Belarus's best option in terms of tying up Ukrainian defences at a bearable cost to itself.
Childlike Empress
Banned
I maintain that it is more likely that Poland invades the Ukraine than is is that Belarus will. Against the opinion of The Don, jimbob and Jack by the hedge. We all don't know, but we will see.
Putin is fighting for his ego, his deluded sense of legacy, and a bizarre fantasy of what he thinks would make Russia great. If he can drag Belarus into this mess through guile or threats, he will do it. It doesn't matter who dies or how many. This is what a powerful nation looks like with a mad narcissist running it.
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2006
- Messages
- 54,796
Nuclear power plants make the best ammo dumps.
IIRC you also maintained that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Completely not. Putin is the frontrunner of the international community that is running against the clown show. You know it, we know it, watch the show.
The Don is right that I did not foresee that Russia would invade the Ukraine, but he didn't foresee anything. The whole complex is not on his radar.
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Given that chances remain much better that neither will invade, chances are good that "we will see" is a bit off.
With that said, Belarus is the one of the two that Ukraine has been pointedly forced to defend against, that Russia has pointedly been trying to get to invade by fair means and foul, and which has been offering aid and comfort to the forces that are actively invading Ukraine.
Poland, on the other hand, has been actively aiding Ukraine and working to support Ukraine's decision to defend themselves.
Which one is objectively more likely to invade should be about as clear as night and day.
Last edited:
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
I consider it marginally possible that if this conflict drags on long enough, and Russian forces actually threaten Kiev again, Poland *might* enter Ukraine in some capacity, either as peacekeepers or as co-belligerents with the Ukrainians.
I think this is about as likely as Belarus entering Ukraine under similar circumstances, but on the Russian side.
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
And focusing their forces where civilians are in a pointed attempt to use the civilians as deterrents/human shields, like they're apparently doing at Kherson?
Childlike Empress
Banned
The Ukraine had no reason to defend itself against Belarus. Uncle Luka is a leader of the kind someone like you and I don't have. Someone who cares about his people. While Poland is run by trash like your and my country.
Edited by xjx388:
<SNIP>
Edited for Rule 11
Edited for Rule 11
Last edited by a moderator:
It would be pretty damn odd for Poland to give Ukraine several hundred modernized tanks and myriad other weapons systems, then turn around and invade them.
More likely is that Russia just puts out more creative fiction type propaganda, assuming all nations share the same sort of territorial revanchism that Russia does. If Russia is having a good week, it can find some obscure Polish ex-politician or celebrity who will make that sort of claim. It's a way of normalizing Russia's goals in all this.
Or, they'll just get video of the Polish-donated tanks now in Ukraine and offer that up as proof that the invasion has already happened.
More likely is that Russia just puts out more creative fiction type propaganda, assuming all nations share the same sort of territorial revanchism that Russia does. If Russia is having a good week, it can find some obscure Polish ex-politician or celebrity who will make that sort of claim. It's a way of normalizing Russia's goals in all this.
Or, they'll just get video of the Polish-donated tanks now in Ukraine and offer that up as proof that the invasion has already happened.
Last edited:
The comedy, it hurts.
Then again, I suppose you think that the Belarus elections are free and fair.
Childlike Empress
Banned
lomiller
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Jul 31, 2007
- Messages
- 13,208
So it's propaganda that doesn't reflect anything happening in reality?
- Status