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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...ssian-military-should-be-worried?fr=operanews

Nice article on Russia's options and the potential impact on the military in Russia.


I stopped reading here:
Freedman said:
On 7 July the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that after recent exertions in Luhansk province, in the east, its forces needed a pause to “replenish their combat capabilities” before moving on to the next stage of the war.


... to go check the July 7 announcements of the MoD, which are interesting including new batches of information on what they found in and around the bioweapon labs.

The quote he has is from a short post with a one minute video and the describing comment
MoD Russia said:
Central MD's units carry out combat missions during the special military operation to replenish combat capabilities of equipment

Along with the rest of the troops who carried out tasks on the front line, routine maintenance of combat wheeled and tracked equipment is being carried out.


Well, if it makes the guy feel better to interpret that as "needing a pause", which is not said at all, let him go for it. I'm not interested in this kind of tea leaves reading to hold up "morale".
 
As an ex US Army redleg, the Ukranians have developed some good gunners pretty quick.

They have been training in the UK with the Royal Artillery on Salisbury Plain and the live gunnery ranges at Otterburn on Northumberland.
 
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I stopped reading here:



... to go check the July 7 announcements of the MoD, which are interesting including new batches of information on what they found in and around the bioweapon labs.

The quote he has is from a short post with a one minute video and the describing comment



Well, if it makes the guy feel better to interpret that as "needing a pause", which is not said at all, let him go for it. I'm not interested in this kind of tea leaves reading to hold up "morale".
The video you are referring to may be easily seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk7o0XSXno0 .

And it does indeed have the comment:
Central MD's units carry out combat missions during the special military operation to replenish combat capabilities of equipment
.

So you may be right in your argument.

The newstatesman article said:
On 7 July the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that after recent exertions in Luhansk province, in the east, its forces needed a pause to “replenish their combat capabilities” before moving on to the next stage of the war.
(https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...ssian-military-should-be-worried?fr=operanews )

But, when you look at the video (or read the comment), there is no sign of exhaustion or weakness. The author of the newstatesman article, Lawrence Freedman, has added the phrase "its forces needed a pause", which is apparently nowhere to be found, except in his own writings.
 
Now that CE and Léon Degrelle -- goddammit, I mean Michel! -- are on the scene, we can all retire, outfumbled, outgassed, outbelieved, outsquirmed, and, if blanks count, outgunned.

It was a famous victory.
 
As an ex US Army redleg, the Ukranians have developed some good gunners pretty quick.

There's no better motivator than the instinct for survival.

The Ukrainians have certainly risen to the occasion.

They have been training in the UK with the Royal Artillery on Salisbury Plain and the live gunnery ranges at Otterburn on Northumberland.

I wonder if many are already experienced with the 152mm Soviet era artillery and are now switching over to newer systems. The Ukrainians still seem to have a lot of the older equipment but there are reports of them running out of ammo for them.

Enough concepts are simliar, it could accelerate the learning process.
 
Hey fellow redleg me too. I have been following the progress of the Ukrainian gun bunnies.

You'd probably appreciate last night's efforts then

Including this

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1546971433531854848

Luhansk. What appears to be a projectile shooting into the sky due to cook-off can be seen.

And shown on Russian channels. I wonder what the morale is like in the troops in munitions dumps that haven't yet been hit - which is still the majority ( a couple of days ago, I saw assertions that 85% were still intact, which to me is a fast degradation)
 
Our Ukrainian guests keep a really close eye on the situation in Ukraine, and in particular around their home city of Kharkiv. They source their information from both the Ukrainian and Russian media - in part because his parents are in the occupied part of Luhansk.

For the past couple of weeks they have been very despondent about the succession of stories relating to Russian advances in Donbas, the continuous shelling of Kharkiv and the wider set of Russian terror attacks throughout Ukraine.

Yesterday they were encouraged by a number of things:

  • News from home that the attacks on Kharkiv have dropped off significantly
  • News of multiple HIMARS strikes on Russian command posts and ammunition dumps - the reported number was far higher than has been mentioned in the Western media
  • News that Russia is asking Western countries to help stop Ukrainian aggression against it - that seems very far-fetched
 
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-himars-kherson-himars-major-general-artem-nasbulin-1723690

Newsweek is not my favorite source but if true, more good news from Ukraine. A HIMARS attack killed a Russian general near Kherson. The article also mentions another strike that killed 15 officers including a colonel. Let's hurry up and push in the MRLS now that we have seen what Ukraine can do with the HIMARS.

Ukraine troops have been training with MLRS in the UK on the live fire ranges in Northumberland.
 
More on the Norwegian M270s: Because theirs haven't been upgraded (presumably to be capable of firing GMLRS), Norway is actually transferring three to the UK for upgrades, either to then be sent on to Ukraine, or to backfill those the UK is sending. Whether the UK is currently planning to give Ukraine three or six is not clear.

Also, to amend what I wrote on the subject earlier, the list of Ukrainian brigades I was working from didn't include armored or artillery brigades, so to give each motorized, mechanized, armored, and artillery brigade a two-launcher section with several in reserve would actually require close to 100 M270 and HIMARS, which is what Ukraine has been asking for (60 to 100, I've read).
 
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More on the Norwegian M270s: Because theirs haven't been upgraded (presumably to be capable of firing GMLRS), Norway is actually transferring three to the UK for upgrades, either to then be sent on to Ukraine, or to backfill those the UK is sending. Whether the UK is currently planning to give Ukraine three or six is not clear.

Also, to amend what I wrote on the subject earlier, the list of Ukrainian brigades I was working from didn't include armored or artillery brigades, so to give each motorized, mechanized, armored, and artillery brigade a two-launcher section with several in reserve would actually require close to 100 M270 and HIMARS, which is what Ukraine has been asking for (60 to 100, I've read).

They won't get 100

Rather than spread them thin I would think they will be made higher level assets and deployed as needed.
 
Interesting article about how many of the fancy "western" weapons end up in the hands of Russia, at best, or on the black market via Albania to who-knows-who. Not the first I've read on the topic, but the most detailed one.

Batko Milacic said:
[...] The Ukrainian army started total mobilization with the beginning of the Russian special operation. However, Russian-speaking residents of the East do not want to die for the Kiev elites. Many of them do not care who will control the regions in which they live. In Russia, salaries are significantly higher than in Ukraine and there is no language harassment.

The Russians have created a very profitable loophole for those who do not want to fight for anyone. It is even strange that they have not yet hung banners in the Ukrainian segment of the Internet – ‘’get Russian citizenship and an apartment in the Moscow region in exchange for a Western self-propelled guns’’. How it works?

On the radio wave of the Ukrainian units, Russian negotiators persuade the artillerymen and tankers to advance to the indicated points and surrender with their equipment. In exchange – Russian documents, freedom and some money. The brought “Caesar”, “HIMARS” or PzH 2000 is considered sufficient proof of loyalty that the military who surrendered with it would avoid filtration and prisoner camps. With new documents, they start a new life somewhere in a cozy Ural city far from the front line, and even send money in bitcoins to their families so that they can go to them.

Prices vary and are discussed, for 2 “Caesars” the Russians gave 120,000, although their Ukrainian “partners” desperately bargained and asked for 2 million. However, freedom and Russian passports are also a significant part of the fee … But one PzH 2000 self-propelled gun, according to various sources, cost the Russians more than $ 100,000. With this money (although the dollar has fallen significantly in price), you can buy a one-room apartment in the Moscow region. True, there is a significant problem, Russia cannot demonstrate the most interesting samples immediately after their purchase. This poses a threat to the families of the military, who transferred such weapons.

Ukraine’s Western allies are well aware of such facts. In Kyiv, they are trying to fight defectors by creating detachments and even forming some institutions of political commissars. However, a few days under Russian shelling greatly change the worldview of both local nationalists and regular officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The result is a paradoxical situation. Part of the American Lend-Lease is being bought up cheaply by the Russians. Will Kyiv and its allies be able to find other ways to protect Western weapons from resale at the front? So far, seems unlikely. [...]


Who could have foreseen that? Certainly not certain "western" fairy tale narrators who seem to deny that there are things like a black market, or corruption, or criminality and organized crime, or even severe poverty, in Ukraine. Just a lot of little Zelenskis with green shirts fighting heroically for "the Good™".

Meanwhile, the Russians are posting videos from empty trenches and fortifications in the woods around the Blue Lakes, which are two thirds on the way from Lisitschansk to Sloviansk.
 
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