The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Michel H]

Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth to allow them to crush the Russian army, take the fight to Russia, cripple the Russian economy so that they cannot prosecute this war, and won't be in a position to start the next one.

This might mean a nuclear war. Very dangerous, and doesn't stop this war killing dozens of people every day quickly.

 

[Michel H]

The sanctions are only beginning to match the level of their aggression. They are criminals on the world stage, and they deserve to be held accountable.

This is what you say on this forum. But what do people say on Russian forums? (though I am not sure about freedom of speech in Russia, but people can comment on RT.com).

Perhaps they say that Ukrainian and Western persecutions must be stopped once for all, they they can no longer get away with this. And then maybe they talk about things like the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, censorships on Western forums ...

 

[eerok]

As far as I know, Ukraine and the West have shown very little interest for true democracy in Crimea and in the Donbass.

Your failure to know things is your problem. In 2014 Russia seized Ukrainian territory and declared it Russian. They installed puppet governments and "voted" for Russia. You think that's democratic, which is pathetic.

One of Russia's tactics is to ship Ukrainians to Russian gulags to be "reeducated" while they replace them with Russian immigrants -- that is, when they don't outright murder Ukrainian civilians en masse. They've been doing this throughout the current invasion.

I guess if this goes on long enough, the rest of Ukraine will "vote" to be Russian. "True democracy", what a laugh.

 

[eerok]

This is what you say on this forum. But what do people say on Russian forums? (though I am not sure about freedom of speech in Russia, but people can comment on RT.com).

Perhaps they say that Ukrainian and Western persecutions must be stopped once for all, they they can no longer get away with this. And then maybe they talk about things like the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, censorships on Western forums ...

They are saying that Putin is a hero and that Russia is saving Europe from nazis. In other words, they are saying what Putin lets them say.

 

[SpitfireIX]

I meant to post about this last month, but I didn't get to it.

I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.

This is an extremely deep dive into how the Russian and Ukrainian armies got to such completely different places when they started from exactly the same Red Army foundation. I highly recommend it for anyone who's interested in the subject.

tl;dr:

Ukraine committed to do everything that was necessary to create a competent, professional NCO corps, and followed through. Russia did not.

While Russia was not a contributing nation to [the Afghanistan International Security Assistance Force], we still offered the Russian Army opportunities to participate in many of our outreach programs. Our NCO Academy offered to allow the same number of Russian soldiers into each class as every other country. Russia accepted the invitation, but with conditions. They would send three of their “common soldiers” (their term), but they wanted a “senior officer” to also attend all classes and training events with them. They also wanted separate barracks for their soldiers instead of a “common barracks space with soldiers from other nations.” Finally, they would not adhere to the requirement only to send soldiers who could speak and read English (with so many languages represented, it was impossible to translate everything for everyone). While I was adamantly against acquiescing to these requests, my commander disagreed. The preparation for the Russian arrival was onerous, and their soldiers seemed much more interested in going to the post exchange—the subsidized on-base general store—than in learning leadership and tactical skills. We didn’t invite them back, and the Russian military never made any inquiries about returning.​

Conversely,

After shaking my hand, [Colonel-General] Henadii [Vorobyov, Chief of the Ukrainian Ground Forces] started talking about the state of his army and his plans for the future while paratroopers dropped around us. He thought this exercise was the best he had seen in his first year as CGF, and he felt his army had made great strides in the last several years at building a professional force and developing a core of career sergeants. He thought our NCO Academy at Grafenwoehr had been instrumental in developing the young leaders he was seeing make a difference in Ukrainian units, and he immediately asked if there was a way to get more slots for his soldiers at the course. During a later visit to our headquarters in Germany, he asked for a one-on-one meeting with Command Sergeant Major Dave Davenport, the top NCO in Europe, about how the Ukrainians could plan to train and educate their senior sergeants.​

 

[Aridas]

Your failure to know things is your problem. In 2014 Russia seized Ukrainian territory and declared it Russian. They installed puppet governments and "voted" for Russia. You think that's democratic, which is pathetic.

One of Russia's tactics is to ship Ukrainians to Russian gulags to be "reeducated" while they replace them with Russian immigrants -- that is, when they don't outright murder Ukrainian civilians en masse. They've been doing this throughout the current invasion.

I guess if this goes on long enough, the rest of Ukraine will "vote" to be Russian. "True democracy", what a laugh.

As has been touched on before, it actually is entirely reasonable to believe that Crimea strongly favored joining Russia before Russia's invasion. Had Crimea's effort to join Russia been an internal democratic affair, that could have led to a peaceful transition recognized by the world. Russia's actual actions have completely removed any chance of that route actually being viable, rendering all talk of pro-Russia sentiment in Crimea moot, leaving only the route where Russia uses power to coerce the rest of the world to accept their control of the Crimea.

 

[gnome]

You think that's democratic, which is pathetic.

He does not think so. He's here to make the assertions without defending them in any more depth than is necessary to give them a veneer of plausibility. There's never any follow up on tough questions, just a repeat of the original assertions.

 

[The Don]

This might mean a nuclear war. Very dangerous, and doesn't stop this war killing dozens of people every day quickly.

And if Russia were allowed to keep their their gains over a million ethnic Ukrainians will likely be killed.

 

[dudalb]

And if Russia were allowed to keep their their gains over a million ethnic Ukrainians will likely be killed.

Not to mention it would only encourage Putin to more agression later on.
Appeasement just does not work. The aggresor almost alwlays sees it as a sign of weakness.

 

[dudalb]

This is what you say on this forum. But what do people say on Russian forums? (though I am not sure about freedom of speech in Russia, but people can comment on RT.com).

Perhaps they say that Ukrainian and Western persecutions must be stopped once for all, they they can no longer get away with this. And then maybe they talk about things like the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, censorships on Western forums ...

I give you delibate ignorance.

 

[dudalb]

I wonder what more could the world do to help Ukraine? Long-range missiles would be useful. They could be used against installations inside Russia, taking the war to the invader. But what would be the effect of such an escalation?

Maybe it's time to take a risk. Appeasing a tyrant like Putin never ends well.

Total ecomomic isolation of Russia.

 

[theprestige]

And if Russia were allowed to keep their their gains over a million ethnic Ukrainians will likely be killed.

This is a good reason not to concede anything.

Not to mention it would only encourage Putin to more agression later on.

This is not. Putin will not live to see the creation of a Russian army that can attempt more aggression towards western Europe.

 

[eerok]

As has been touched on before, it actually is entirely reasonable to believe that Crimea strongly favored joining Russia before Russia's invasion. Had Crimea's effort to join Russia been an internal democratic affair, that could have led to a peaceful transition recognized by the world. Russia's actual actions have completely removed any chance of that route actually being viable, rendering all talk of pro-Russia sentiment in Crimea moot, leaving only the route where Russia uses power to coerce the rest of the world to accept their control of the Crimea.

Yes, there very possibly could've been an alternative path for Crimea if Russia hadn't stunk it up so badly, but as it stands, Crimea is not legitimately Russian. Russia has no voice in this -- it's an internal matter for Ukraine.

In any case, Russia didn't invade for the sake of Crimea -- they wanted all of Ukraine as a vassal state.

 

[eerok]

This is not. Putin will not live to see the creation of a Russian army that can attempt more aggression towards western Europe.

Putin has groomed two successors who are just as bad. This won't end when Putin is dead.

 

[theprestige]

Putin has groomed two successors who are just as bad. This won't end when Putin is dead.

I predict that neither of his successors will last long enough to see this fabled future Russian army that can attempt more aggression towards the west.

 

[lomiller]

This might mean a nuclear war. Very dangerous, and doesn't stop this war killing dozens of people every day quickly.

Your approach would all but guarantee Nuclear war.

Russia has shown a pattern, it keeps invading it's neighbors and committing genocide in the countries it invades. This has already been allowed to continue to long, and they no longer fear any consequences. The next targets will include NATO countries, and success in the Ukraine insures Russia will go ahead with invading them. This will result in a full scale war and almost certainly a Nuclear War when Russia looses the conventional war.

Also, your support for these repeated genocides committed by Russia is horrific.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Your approach would all but guarantee Nuclear war.

Russia has shown a pattern, it keeps invading it's neighbors and committing genocide in the countries it invades. This has already been allowed to continue to long, and they no longer fear any consequences. The next targets will include NATO countries, and success in the Ukraine insures Russia will go ahead with invading them. This will result in a full scale war and almost certainly a Nuclear War when Russia looses the conventional war.

Also, your support for these repeated genocides committed by Russia is horrific.

The fact they spend time attacking non NATO countries means they will eventually attack a NATO country? Isn't that like saying a serial rapist of women will eventually rape a man?

 

[SpitfireIX]

That's a ridiculous non sequitur. Putin wants the Baltic States back in the Russian empire. He would attack them if he thought he could get away with it. And appeasement over Ukraine would make that more likely.

 

[Michel H]

Your approach would all but guarantee Nuclear war.

Russia has shown a pattern, it keeps invading it's neighbors and committing genocide in the countries it invades. This has already been allowed to continue to long, and they no longer fear any consequences. The next targets will include NATO countries, and success in the Ukraine insures Russia will go ahead with invading them. This will result in a full scale war and almost certainly a Nuclear War when Russia looses the conventional war.

I don't think that Russia, which has already lost many soldiers in this war that they started, deserves "success in Ukraine". The peace plan I proposed was:

(1) Crimea belongs to Russsia (accepted by all).
(2) The two Donbass republics are independent (accepted by all).
(3) Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, Ukraine remains independent and chooses its alliances the way it likes.
(4) No more sanctions and censorship (this also applies to the West).

Point (3) makes it clear that Russia should withdraw from Ukraine proper. Obviously, forcing Russian troops to withdraw is not an invitation to invade other countries, this is not the signal which is being sent.

Many Ukrainian citizens are currently suffering greatly under Russian assaults, and I believe my simple and obvious plan would help them greatly and quickly.

I invite you to read this:

Biden says US won’t send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia
...
Koffler said that another motivation for Biden could be concern about how the systems would be used by the Ukrainians.

"Perhaps he doesn't trust [Ukrainian President] Zelenskyy in using the systems judiciously because Zelenskyy has been very clear that he doesn't want to cede any land to Russia, he doesn't want to compromise at all, and he even wants to take Crimea back, which is pretty unlikely," she said.

(https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-us-ukraine-rocket-systems-reach-russia).

That's the problem: Zelensky doesn't want to compromise at all. He sees his country being destroyed more every day, but he doesn't seem to care because he wants to play his little Churchill.

What is important here is certainly not to make Putin (very) happy: it is to try to make sure that people in Crimea and Donbass have decent lives at peace, that they don't have the unpleasant impression of being ruled by foreigners that they don't like (these same principles do apply of course also to Ukrainians and Russians, with also an eye on other regions in the world which may need some help, such as Taiwan for example).

 

[SpitfireIX]

Biden says the US will not send long range rocket systems to Ukraine. Assuming he actually meant to say that, I hope he meant that we're just not going to send the longest-range rocket ammunition, but still provide MLRS.