The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[crescent]

.... persuade the Russians to allow safe passage for grain carriers for humanitarian reasons. Presumably the Russians would leverage as much benefit as possible for permitting it.

Russia is already shipping the grain to anyone who will buy it - at least for any grain coming out of Kherson or other ports already under Russian control.

In other words - Russia is stealing the grain and selling it for Russian profit. Getting the grain out is easy so long as other nations are willing to ignore or enable Russian thievery.

As for the grain from Odesa? Third world starvation benefits Russia in this regard. There have been a number of articles already pointing out that the Russian disinformation campaigns have been very effective in most of Africa and Asia. We Atlantic-centric nations probably don't appreciate how strongly pro-Russian most African nations are, as is India. If they see food shortages due to lack of imports from Ukraine then they'll blame Ukraine for causing the war in the first place or for failing to surrender as soon as it started.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Some nations might for humanitarian reasons I get that you never would though.


Because it is easy to stop the humanitarian ships with a warship and then still not be at war with the west. But if they open fire on warships it is a different statement. Kind of like all those pointless tripwire forces that Nato puts in countries bordering Russia. Clearly they serve no purpose either right?

You don't see the difference between a defensive force in a NATO country and a fleet of warships running a Russian blockade?

 

[sarge]

The current war in Ukraine is the subject of this thread. There are other existing threads for historical events that may relate to this war, propoganda surrounding this war, and Russias threats to other countries.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: sarge

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I guess gas prices are high enough now that a majority of Americans are ready to cut Ukraine loose.

Majority Of Americans Think Protecting Economy—Not Sanctioning Russia—Should Be Country’s Top Priority, Poll Finds



"The price of tea has doubled!? Ah, let's just call off this revolution."

The best way to protect the economy is to win this war as quickly as possible. If we don't, then Russia will become an even bigger threat and we will have ever increasing military spending. Eventually it could lead to nuclear war, and then our precious economy will be worth ****.

 

[SpitfireIX]

I guess gas prices are high enough now that a majority of Americans are ready to cut Ukraine loose.

Majority Of Americans Think Protecting Economy—Not Sanctioning Russia—Should Be Country’s Top Priority, Poll Finds



"The price of tea has doubled!? Ah, let's just call off this revolution."

No, they're not. Also from the article:

Most Americans still believe the country should play a role in the war in Ukraine and should sanction Russia, however, with 32% believing the U.S. should have a major role and 49% thinking it should have a minor role, the poll found.​

Further, the US doesn't need Russian energy at all (although some of Biden's policies mean that replacing it will be more difficult in the short term), so lifting our energy sanctions would have a minimal effect.

 

[dudalb]

Highly questionable. A better explanation is that this is just one more bit of their firehose of lies tactic. Assuming honesty from Russian propagandists is a hazardous proposition.

I was being sarcastic, I know the Russian officals knew damn well where Orwell got much of his ideas for 1984 from. It is too freaking obvious.

 

[Doubt]

T-62s (based on T-55), not T-64s. The newest ones (production ceased in 1975) are not just older than the crews that will be operating them - they're older than most of the parents of the crews that will be operating them.

Quantity has quality all its own, Russia will just keep grinding down Ukrainian defenses. Easy for Russia to do when it takes pride it the tradition of taking casualties that would depopulate lesser nations. Those antique tanks will still take effort for the Ukrainians to destroy and will still manage to take a few Ukrainians with them.

Sadly, it works. Over the past few days Russia has stepped up its advances in Luhansk and might actually have a shot at finally encircling the Ukrainian forces there or forcing them to withdraw a large number of forces pretty far from where they are currently entrenched. This is something Russia has been claiming to have already accomplished since the first week of the war, something they have been churning out of their fiction writing workshops/news releases - but now they are actually making progress towards that goal.

The scale of Russian attacks has gotten smaller as the war goes on. An analysis that says that since Russia finally got a little momentum in the center should not end with the conclusion that what they are doing is working. They are still draining resources and a lot of those T-62s will be missing parts just like the newer tanks in reserve units that never even made it to the battlefield.

Russia is still losing.

However, there are potential shortages of the equipment the west is sending. But not very short.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

 

[theprestige]

The scale of Russian attacks has gotten smaller as the war goes on. An analysis that says that since Russia finally got a little momentum in the center should not end with the conclusion that what they are doing is working. They are still draining resources and a lot of those T-62s will be missing parts just like the newer tanks in reserve units that never even made it to the battlefield.

Russia is still losing.

However, there are potential shortages of the equipment the west is sending. But not very short.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

If the Russians are reverting from T-72s to T-62s, the west can probably revert from Javelins to Dragons and still come out ahead in this game.

 

[Craig4]

I disagree.

During the stalemate millions of Ukrainians are likely to be whisked away to who-knows-where and replaced with Russians; Russian forces are able to dig in whilst at the same time laying waste to anything in range of their artillery and carrying out periodic missile strikes in the rest of Ukraine.

IMO a stalemate will quickly become a fait-accompli due to the difficulty in dislodging the Russian forces.

All true but if a stalemate is what happens the choices are, exploit it or settle in, exploit it.

 

[Doubt]

If the Russians are reverting from T-72s to T-62s, the west can probably revert from Javelins to Dragons and still come out ahead in this game.

Probably not. The thing is those rocket motors don't get better over time. I have no idea what is left of the Dragons but I doubt any remaining motors are good.

However, the role of man portable weapons being the primary tools is diminishing. Heavier stuff is coming.

ETA: Googling around it seems production ended in 1981.

 

[SpitfireIX]

However, there are potential shortages of the equipment the west is sending. But not very short.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

Perun covered this in one of his recent videos. The US doesn't need Stingers or Javelins because we have other, more effective means of dealing with armor and air threats, assuming our future adversaries even have any tanks or aircraft.

 

[theprestige]

Probably not. The thing is those rocket motors don't get better over time. I have no idea what is left of the Dragons but I doubt any remaining motors are good.

However, the role of man portable weapons being the primary tools is diminishing. Heavier stuff is coming.

ETA: Googling around it seems production ended in 1981.

Yeah I was mainly cracking wise.

Perun covered this in one of his recent videos. The US doesn't need Stingers or Javelins because we have other, more effective means of dealing with armor and air threats, assuming our future adversaries even have any tanks or aircraft.

Then Perun is an idiot. The US can't possibly deploy a full spectrum, totally integrated supreme battlespace instantaneously all at once. Sometimes the Marines are going to want to pop off with anti tank and anti air while they wait for the rest of the stuff to settle in and start getting busy.

 

[arthwollipot]

Ukraine destruction: how the Guardian documented Russia’s use of illegal weapons

Cluster bombs, fléchettes and unguided missiles on residential areas: as prosecutors investigate alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine, our reporters reveal the evidence they discovered on the ground


At about midnight on 1 March 2022, a Russian air force jet dropped a series of 250kg Soviet-era explosives over Borodyanka, north of Kyiv. They were powerful FAB-250 bombs, designed to hit military targets such as enemy fortifications and bunkers. There were no such structures, however, in this quiet town of 13,000 people.

The bombs fell on at least five residential buildings, splitting them in two. Dozens of bodies were found under the rubble when the Russians withdrew from the Kyiv region in early April, leaving in their path a gigantic crime scene that Ukrainian prosecutors investigating alleged war crimes by Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, have been working on for weeks.

A war crime is a violation of the laws of war, a component of international law established by the Hague conventions of 1899 and 1907 and further defined by the Geneva conventions of 1949, including the intentional killing of prisoners of war and civilians, torture and the use of illegal weapons. The Guardian has visited the small towns and villages north of Kyiv razed to the ground during the Russian occupation and reviewed evidence found there – as well as other materials from Ukrainian prosecutors – of imprecise munitions such as the FAB-250, metal dart shells and cluster bombs whose use led to the deaths of hundreds of civilians.

 

[Craig4]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pc=U531&cvid=57765e38b2654d069132decc29c1996d

In the running dead general tally, do retired ones count? In an effort to prove Russia ***** up on land, sea and air, this retired Major General, with a history of leaving the aircraft in the ejection seat got shot down by a Ukrainian with an American-made Stinger. Odd because he seems to have had some practice punching out after doing something stupid. He may have been flying for Wagner because he was no longer in the Russian Air Force. Is this like 10 Russian generals or something?

I'd say this is good for Russian career management but if this many generals are dying, the Colonels and below must be REALLY taking it in the shorts.

 

[Dr.Sid]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pc=U531&cvid=57765e38b2654d069132decc29c1996d

In the running dead general tally, do retired ones count? In an effort to prove Russia ***** up on land, sea and air, this retired Major General, with a history of leaving the aircraft in the ejection seat got shot down by a Ukrainian with an American-made Stinger. Odd because he seems to have had some practice punching out after doing something stupid. He may have been flying for Wagner because he was no longer in the Russian Air Force. Is this like 10 Russian generals or something?

I'd say this is good for Russian career management but if this many generals are dying, the Colonels and below must be REALLY taking it in the shorts.

Well you can't really run out of generals. Not before you run out of privates.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Well you can't really run out of generals. Not before you run out of privates.

The traditional Ward Room 'toast on a Thursday at dinner is "A bloody war or a sickly season" (For a quick promotion)

 

[Reformed Offlian]

Meanwhile it looks like Russia is getting mothballed T62s ready for service

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1528907750960414721?s=20&t=y9y0SsaB4MFUYlFud5v8HA

Which must come with logistical problems as the main gun is a smaller calibre.

Bring back the T-34s! I mean, they *are* fighting Nazis, right?

 

[arthwollipot]

'They are simply erasing Severodonetsk from the face of the earth'

Russian troops are advancing in eastern Ukraine and attacking key cities, particularly the industrial city of Severodonetsk, the AFP has reported.

Sergiy Gaidai, governor of the eastern region of Lugansk, said Severodonetsk was being hammered by air strikes, rockets, artillery and mortars in a bid to solidify control over the province and move further into Ukraine.

“The situation is very difficult and unfortunately it is only getting worse,” Gaidai said, describing what he termed a “full-scale offensive in all directions” in a video on Telegram.

“The Russian army has decided to completely destroy Severodonetsk. They are simply erasing Severodonetsk from the face of the earth,” he said.

Thousands of troops were sent to capture Lugansk region, Gaidai said, adding that the bombardment of Severodonetsk was so intense it was too late for its 15,000 civilians to leave.

In Moscow, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu made it clear Russia was settling in for a long war.

Source

How on earth is this justified?

 

[Oystein]

Source

How on earth is this justified?

It's to protect and safeguard the Russian populations of Severodonetsk and Donbas and their homes from being molested by Ukrainian nazis. [/putinapologist]

 

[theprestige]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pc=U531&cvid=57765e38b2654d069132decc29c1996d

In the running dead general tally, do retired ones count? In an effort to prove Russia ***** up on land, sea and air, this retired Major General, with a history of leaving the aircraft in the ejection seat got shot down by a Ukrainian with an American-made Stinger. Odd because he seems to have had some practice punching out after doing something stupid. He may have been flying for Wagner because he was no longer in the Russian Air Force. Is this like 10 Russian generals or something?

I'd say this is good for Russian career management but if this many generals are dying, the Colonels and below must be REALLY taking it in the shorts.

In the interest of saving you a click:

Have you heard about this movie, Top Gun: Maverick?

In tangentially related news, MSN says that Twitter says that the Ukrainians say that they shot down a plane, that this guy may or may not have been flying. (MSN also says that the BBC says that some guys who used to work with this guy say that they've heard reports that he's dead.)

Top Gun: Maverick is a movie about a fighter pilot who is old.

Anyway, one thing is certain. Whether this guy was flying a fighter jet over Ukraine or not, he probably shouldn't have been, according to a fighter pilot we interviewed, who is old like the main character in Top Gun: Maverick.

There's a new movie out, called Top Gun: Maverick. You should see it.

The article is also poorly edited, which I cannot do justice to here. Hopefully Top Gun: Maverick had a decent editor.