The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[dudalb]

Now you're talking nonsense.

All nonsense is created equal, but some is more equal then others.

 

[ginjawarrior]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...for-joint-effort-on-russia-black-sea-blockade

i know this is truss talking.

but i wouldn't mind our boat's pottering around out there for some humanitarian reasons

After meeting Landsbergis, Truss said the UK would want British naval ships to join the escort if the practicalities could be sorted, including demining the harbour and providing Ukraine with longer-range weapons to defend the harbour from Russian attack. The UK is in discussions with allies about the plan and it would probably need US agreement to be activated.

this famine will kill way more people than the war in ukraine if we let it..

 

[Oystein]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...for-joint-effort-on-russia-black-sea-blockade

i know this is truss talking.

but i wouldn't mind our boat's pottering around out there for some humanitarian reasons
...

Uhm... from the article

“This would be a non-military humanitarian mission and is not comparable with a no-fly zone,” he [Lithuanian foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis] said. “In this endeavour military ships or planes or both would be used to ensure that the grain supplies can leave Odesa safely and reach the Bosphorus without Russian interference. We would need a coalition of the willing – countries with significant naval power to protect the shipping lanes, and countries that are affected by this”.

This is contradictory.
If you send friendly military ships to protect merchant ships from hostile military ships, what the friendly military ships do is establish a "no naval hostilities zone" along the shipping routes, including the harbor, city and region of Odesa.

If the USA have to give approval and Britain participates, then this is, from a Russian perspective, indistinguishable from a NATO operation.

There'd be a difference in that the territory of other NATO members, particularly those bordering Ukraine or Russia, would not be touched - unless you count the economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, and Turkey...

I don't see Turkey agreeing with this, I don't even see the USA agreeing with this. This pits Western forces under Western flag directly against Russian forces. The thing everyone wants to avoid like the plague. It's not like patrols by the navies of Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina or what have you would inspire much confidence in would-be exporters from Ukraine.

What kills this for good is that such grain ships would be effectively uninsurable.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Before you can send ships in you need air cover so a 'no fly zone' would have to be established.

 

[ginjawarrior]

Uhm... from the article

This is contradictory.
If you send friendly military ships to protect merchant ships from hostile military ships, what the friendly military ships do is establish a "no naval hostilities zone" along the shipping routes, including the harbor, city and region of Odesa.

If the USA have to give approval and Britain participates, then this is, from a Russian perspective, indistinguishable from a NATO operation.

There'd be a difference in that the territory of other NATO members, particularly those bordering Ukraine or Russia, would not be touched - unless you count the economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, and Turkey...

I don't see Turkey agreeing with this, I don't even see the USA agreeing with this. This pits Western forces under Western flag directly against Russian forces. The thing everyone wants to avoid like the plague. It's not like patrols by the navies of Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina or what have you would inspire much confidence in would-be exporters from Ukraine.

What kills this for good is that such grain ships would be effectively uninsurable.

i didn't write the article

but still way more people are going to die around the world than will do in Ukraine war

its not just desvastating famine we're dealing here, but also destability in all those regions it happens in

russia is counting on this too

im happy for our boats to potter around down there. (obviously with the Bosporus opened for humanitarian reasons)

 

[Craig4]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sm-not-totalitarianism-claims-moscow-diplomat

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. This might as well be Russia's official motto.

Wow, and people say Americans don't do irony.

 

[ginjawarrior]

Before you can send ships in you need air cover so a 'no fly zone' would have to be established.

yes that is implied

but this would be over sea rather than land

 

[Andy_Ross]

yes that is implied

but this would be over sea rather than land

How far away do you think land will be?
What is the range of air launched anti ship missiles?
I have experience of a war at sea involving air launched anti ship missiles.
If there is any plan to send warships to defend shipping in to Ukraine ports then the air threat won't be starting at the coast.

 

[ginjawarrior]

How far away do you think land will be?
What is the range of air launched anti ship missiles?
I have experience of a war at sea involving air launched anti ship missiles.
If there is any plan to send warships to defend shipping in to Ukraine ports then the air threat won't be starting at the coast.

if something gets hit then things escalate..

its all a case of how much we can sit back and watch

we've already settled into accepting watching Ukrainians fight alone (albeit with weapons)

now we have to sit back and accept watching a good part of the world starve and the poorest die in much larger numbers than are going to die in ukraine

putin is counting on us doing nothing and getting the rest of the world to burn and starve

 

[Andy_Ross]

No. How long do you think a few warships are going to last in the Black Sea?
Before it is safe to run convoys of cargo ships the Russian navy and air force would have to be taken out if you don't want to see a lot of ships sunk.

What you are proposing is a full scale air and naval war with Russia.

 

[arthwollipot]

That much of 1984 was specfically modeled on Stalin's Russia seems to have passed them by.

But...

Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four was about liberalism, not totalitarianism, claims Moscow diplomat

Maria Zakharova says idea book is about totalitarianism is ‘one of the biggest global fakes’, in claim disputed by Russian translator


George Orwell’s dystopian classic Nineteen Eighty-Four was written to describe the dangers of western liberalism – not totalitarianism - a top Moscow diplomat has claimed.

“For many years we believed that Orwell described the horrors of totalitarianism. This is one of the biggest global fakes … Orwell wrote about the end of liberalism. He depicted how liberalism would lead humanity to a dead end,” Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry, said during a public talk in Ekaterinburg on Saturday.

Published in 1949, the book is seen as a cautionary tale warning of the consequences of totalitarianism and mass surveillance. Orwell is believed to have modelled the totalitarian government depicted in the novel on Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia.

Zakharova had been asked by a member of the public how to respond to friends and relatives abroad when they suggested that Russia was living in a modern-day replay of Orwell’s novel.

“Orwell did not write about the USSR, it wasn’t about us,” she said. “He wrote about the society in which he lived, about the collapse of the ideas of liberalism. And you were made to believe that Orwell wrote it about you.” Zakharova suggested the audience member tell her relatives abroad: “It’s you in the west who live in a fantasy world where a person can be cancelled.”

 

[arthwollipot]

Also, this:

Ukrainian court sentences Russian soldier to life in prison for killing civilian

Vadim Shishimarin shot dead Oleksandr Shelipov as he rode his bicycle in village in Sumy region during early days of invasion


A court in Kyiv has sentenced a Russian soldier to life in prison for the killing of a Ukrainian civilian, in the first verdict in a trial related to war crimes carried out by the Russian army during its invasion of Ukraine.

Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old sergeant, was found guilty of killing 62-year-old Oleksandr Shelipov in the Sumy region during the first days of the invasion.

The verdict was delivered on Monday by the judge Serhii Ahafonov in a packed courtroom, with dozens of Ukrainian and foreign television cameras crammed into the small chamber.

The judge said although Shishimarin cooperated with the investigation and expressed remorse, the court could not accept his claim he did not mean to kill Shelipov when he fired at him. “The murder was committed with direct intent,” he said.

Shishimarin, wearing a grey and blue hoodie, listened to the judge deliver his long verdict with his head bowed from inside the glass box for defendants. He was given a translation of the judge’s words from Ukrainian to Russian by a court-appointed translator.

 

[ginjawarrior]

No. How long do you think a few warships are going to last in the Black Sea?
Before it is safe to run convoys of cargo ships the Russian navy and air force would have to be taken out if you don't want to see a lot of ships sunk.

What you are proposing is a full scale air and naval war with Russia.

what do you propose then? get an armchair and plan a charity bake sale for the up coming starving?

i don't think they would attack nato on this

 

[theprestige]

Uhm... from the article

This is contradictory.
If you send friendly military ships to protect merchant ships from hostile military ships, what the friendly military ships do is establish a "no naval hostilities zone" along the shipping routes, including the harbor, city and region of Odesa.

If the USA have to give approval and Britain participates, then this is, from a Russian perspective, indistinguishable from a NATO operation.

There'd be a difference in that the territory of other NATO members, particularly those bordering Ukraine or Russia, would not be touched - unless you count the economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, and Turkey...

I don't see Turkey agreeing with this, I don't even see the USA agreeing with this. This pits Western forces under Western flag directly against Russian forces. The thing everyone wants to avoid like the plague. It's not like patrols by the navies of Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina or what have you would inspire much confidence in would-be exporters from Ukraine.

What kills this for good is that such grain ships would be effectively uninsurable.

Before you can send ships in you need air cover so a 'no fly zone' would have to be established.

Seems to me like they're talking about a reactive tripwire, not a proactive "no fly zone". Presumably the idea is that Russian air forces would not be molested as long as they stuck to waging war on Ukraine, and left the humanitarian convoy alone.

At least, that's what I'd be talking about, if I were using those words in that context. I'm not sure why you're so convinced that the Lithuanian minister must be talking about proactively shooting down any Russian plane they see, and that he must be so stupid that he doesn't understand that's what he's talking about.

Me? If he says he's not talking about a no-fly zone, then I a priori assume I'm meant to interpret his words as meaning something other than a no-fly zone.

And certainly it's possible to implement a humanitarian convoy through a war zone that doesn't automatically mean a proactive attack on any plane it sees.

 

[theprestige]

How far away do you think land will be?
What is the range of air launched anti ship missiles?
I have experience of a war at sea involving air launched anti ship missiles.
If there is any plan to send warships to defend shipping in to Ukraine ports then the air threat won't be starting at the coast.

Are you familiar with the concept of UN Peacekeepers? They typically go into war zones, but refrain from fighting unless attacked. They try to position themselves between stuff they want to protect, and the belligerent forces. I think this is probably the same kind of thing being proposed.

 

[Oystein]

Are you familiar with the concept of UN Peacekeepers? They typically go into war zones, but refrain from fighting unless attacked. They try to position themselves between stuff they want to protect, and the belligerent forces. I think this is probably the same kind of thing being proposed.

Well yes, except it's unlikely that those will be UN Peacekeepers, as Russia can veto those.

Russia blocks ships out of Odesa. Right?
No one is asking Russia "could you please kindly let the wheat through? Think of the children in Africa". The reason, I presume, is that Russia just won't.
Russia is blocking Odesa for reasons.

If the patrols are not UN Peacekeepers (or anyone else Russia has signed up for), why would Russia allow them to break the blockade?

-----

Also: Do you at least see the potential for a very quick escalation?

When the first Russian plane goes down.
When the first Russian war ship sinks.
Then what?
Do you think the Russians would take it?

When the first British war ship sinks.
Then what?
Do you think they would continue just positioning themselves between the Russians and the cargo?

-----

I am wondering: All that wheat, before it goes on a cargo ship in Odesa harbor, got to the harbor via land transportation. (Some by river ship. perhaps). Is it impossible to transport by land to, say, Romania? Does Romania have a harbor that can deal with loads of wheat? (I know there is Transnistria in the way, so the land rout would have to take very significant detours)

Perhaps someone (Wendover Productions...) has already made a video about this.

 

[ginjawarrior]

Well yes, except it's unlikely that those will be UN Peacekeepers, as Russia can veto those.

Russia blocks ships out of Odesa. Right?
No one is asking Russia "could you please kindly let the wheat through? Think of the children in Africa". The reason, I presume, is that Russia just won't.
Russia is blocking Odesa for reasons.

If the patrols are not UN Peacekeepers (or anyone else Russia has signed up for), why would Russia allow them to break the blockade?

-----

Also: Do you at least see the potential for a very quick escalation?

When the first Russian plane goes down.
When the first Russian war ship sinks.
Then what?
Do you think the Russians would take it?

When the first British war ship sinks.
Then what?
Do you think they would continue just positioning themselves between the Russians and the cargo?

again how much are you comfortable sitting back and accepting here?

I am wondering: All that wheat, before it goes on a cargo ship in Odesa harbor, got to the harbor via land transportation. (Some by river ship. perhaps). Is it impossible to transport by land to, say, Romania? Does Romania have a harbor that can deal with loads of wheat? (I know there is Transnistria in the way, so the land rout would have to take very significant detours)

The group of leading industrialized nations (G7) is considering alternatives to ship grain from Ukraine to break the Russian blockade in the area, she added.

Following problems with rail transport via Romania due to railways' different track widths, exports via the Baltic ports are being examined, she said, noting that prerequisites would first have to be clarified as to how the ports there could be reached.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-accuses-russia-of-waging-grain-war/2588110

Perhaps someone (Wendover Productions...) has already made a video about this.

not seen that one

 

[Aridas]

That much of 1984 was specfically modeled on Stalin's Russia seems to have passed them by.

Highly questionable. A better explanation is that this is just one more bit of their firehose of lies tactic. Assuming honesty from Russian propagandists is a hazardous proposition.

 

[Lennart Hyland]

But...

Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four was about liberalism, not totalitarianism, claims Moscow diplomat

So what if it is? The society Orwell describes is awful and horrifying, much like Russia today anyways.

 

[The Don]

So what if it is? The society Orwell describes is awful and horrifying, much like Russia today anyways.

Or at pretty much any time in the past.

Very worrying news coming out of Luhansk. It seems that the Russian meat grinder is doing its worst and it's merely a matter of time before the whole of Luhansk is under Russian control.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8c6e8ffc2fb576dc00beca&pinned_post_type=share

My fear is that, if Russia were to stop there (and retain its gains in Southern Ukraine) then in time the EU and US may see that as an acceptable stalemate and start to reduce support for Ukraine and unwind sanctions (or more accurately continue to import energy from Russia).

There are also reports that 1.4m Ukrainians from the occupied territories have been forcibly sent to Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8be4d0fc2fb576dc00be98&pinned_post_type=share

Best case, they'll have a short life as undermenshen in Putin's Russian Empire. Worst case, they'll be sent off to death camps in Russia's East.