The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Russia is not bombing Ukrainian cities.

They are targeting, with high precision, Neo-Nazi military infrastructure only. The Nazis placed them in civilian areas so as to create the illusion of civilian casualties.

They probably learned that propaganda tactic from us. It wasn't until we started getting leaked videos that we found out those precision drones were hitting all sorts of other stuff.

 

[Arcade22]

I think the best way to avoid escalation, especially nuclear, is not to back down, but not to leave Putin with nothing to lose either.

Give him an "out" that could be acceptable. It's more important to end this (and by that I mean end it with Russia out of Ukraine and even Crimea if possible), than it is to humiliate/retaliate.

The problem is that this is Putin's very own personal war. It's his war of choice, not necessity. It wasn't forced upon him and even other top Russian officials clearly do not approve of this, but that is irrelevant. Putin seems himself as a "great man" of history and is determined to secure his legacy as the one restored Russia's greatness, undoing the "national humiliation" it suffered when the Soviet Union broke apart. It's this grand historic mindset that is going to make it difficult to convince him to stop. What is a decade of sanctions and tens of thousands of Russian deaths compared to making Russia great again for the future?

The great tragicomic irony is that Russia, in terms of socioeconomic development, has been regressing parallel to his increasing belligerent and aggressive foreign policy. Sending Russians to fight and die abroad has brought very little tangible gains and incredible losses yet Putin sees no reason to change course.

The failure of occupation of eastern Ukraine is great demonstration of this: after 8 years of accomplishing nothing other than causing death and economic damage to both Russia and Ukraine Putin's response is to simply double down. Even if he "wins" and managed to conquer Ukraine completely he still only gains bombed out ruins and a captive people who hate his guts. Ukraine was poor even by Russian standards, as it has no significant valuable natural resources to exploit. It's not going to become richer if he bombs it into ruination.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Another good thread from the vehicle maintenance guy:
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894935209795594

tw;dr - That 64km Russian convoy has been outside supply range for days. That means it's out of gas, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud, going absolutely nowhere until gas is hand-carried in to refuel about 100m of trucks at a time. Ukraine can pick off anything it wants in the column at any time.

 

[Arcade22]

They probably learned that propaganda tactic from us.

No they didn't. Russia is saying that they are not shelling Ukrainian cities, towns or villages period. It's all lies and the Ukrainians are bombing themselves.

I'm pretty sure at no point in any recent military conflict has the US ever said that their enemies are literally bombing themselves, burning their own homes and pretending to flee only to make the US look bad.

 

[Aridas]

US Drinks giant CocaCola have confirmed they will continue to support Putin and do "business as usual" in Russia despite the Ukraine invasion.

For anyone interested, here is a list of CocaCola brands

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Coca-Cola_brands

To add to that topic -

Three Ukrainian supermarket chains - Silpo, Novus, and Varus - stop selling Coca-Cola products as the company continues to operate in Russia.

Next...

RISJ Global Journalism Seminar with Christo Grozev, lead Russia investigator, Bellingcat.

I think this is worth some of your time. It's 1 hour long but some interesting insights here. Any comments ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC_RA1l3NpE

Bellingcat also got my attention a little in relation to another bit of a tweet -

Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev says that #Russia has resources left for the war until Sunday, after which they will collapse.

That would be quite nice if true.

 

[Mike!]

Another good thread from the vehicle maintenance guy:
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894935209795594

tw;dr - That 64km Russian convoy has been outside supply range for days. That means it's out of gas, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud, going absolutely nowhere until gas is hand-carried in to refuel about 100m of trucks at a time. Ukraine can pick off anything it wants in the column at any time.

That's awesome and well worth the read through.

"This is why that Russian 41st CAA general was killed.

He showed up at the head of the column to unscrew the logistical mess, screaming at people and waving his arms in the air in visual range of a Ukrainian Army Sniper."

 

[Venom]

They probably learned that propaganda tactic from us. It wasn't until we started getting leaked videos that we found out those precision drones were hitting all sorts of other stuff.

Huh? Putin's been doing this before America's recent invasions. I think this is more of his own pattern than anything he's borrowed from American propagandists.

 

[Ziggurat]

I suggest you educate yourself on what the actual philosophy of communism is.

You missed the point by a country mile. It doesn't matter what the "actual philosophy of communism" is. Actual communists who come to power are invariably authoritarians who use their power to enrich themselves and their cronies.

Putin never believed in equality for all Russians where all property is commonly owned and each paid according to ability and need. He's always been a power hungry POS.

So just like all communist leaders, then.

 

[dudalb]

I almost never agree with presitge about anything but I do the "actual philosophy of communisma'.
I don't give a rat's butt about comnunism n the abstract. All I care about is how it worked in the real world, and the real world is has been a total failure at best, and a murder machine as bad as anything the world has seen at it's worst.
I don't see how anybody can make excuses for it.

 

[dudalb]

A lot of concern about a Putin statement made to the "President" of Belarus about helping with Belarus's "Baltic project".Problem is Belarus is land locked, and only way ti gets access to the Baltic is through Russia, the Baltic States, or Poland. This is making the Baltics pretty nervous, obvioily implation might be giving Beleurs a land corridor through the Baltic States.

 

[Klimax]

...
Bellingcat also got my attention a little in relation to another bit of a tweet -



That would be quite nice if true.

Nice thing about such predictions that they'll be easy to verify.

 

[TheGoldcountry]

What happens to all these Russian troops if/when they're cut off from any support, especially food supplies? They might be a worse menace to Ukrainians left to themselves.

 

[Aridas]

You missed the point by a country mile. It doesn't matter what the "actual philosophy of communism" is. Actual communists who come to power are invariably authoritarians who use their power to enrich themselves and their cronies.



So just like all communist leaders, then.

Claimed would be the word you should be using there. "State" would be barely acceptable. Actual is just flat out wrong. Actual communism has plenty of problems in theory, of course, but totalitarian leaders just aren't one that's even remotely likely, given that actual communism is pretty much the antithesis of such.

I almost never agree with presitge about anything but I do the "actual philosophy of communisma'.
I don't give a rat's butt about comnunism n the abstract. All I care about is how it worked in the real world, and the real world is has been a total failure at best, and a murder machine as bad as anything the world has seen at it's worst.
I don't see how anybody can make excuses for it.

And there's fundamental disagreement to be had here. Communism simply hasn't actually been manifested in the real world in the first place on the scale in question, so all your talk about how it's worked is nonsense. What you're referring to is generally totalitarianism doing what totalitarianism does on the propaganda front - sell Big Lies. Big Lies about Communism tend to be relatively easy to sell, of course, given that 1) people generally have no idea what actual communism is and 2) have no examples to point to in practice as examples and 3) people with money and power generally HATE the very concept of communism because communism would take away that money and power, so they stop at nothing to villify or subvert it, and their efforts have done much to shape biases.

 

[Aridas]

Nice thing about such predictions that they'll be easy to verify.

Indeed, and in short order, no less. Given the timeframe, of course, I'd be willing to give a day or two extra in leeway, but even with that, it should serve as a decent test.

 

[Craig4]

Beware of the scales on the charts. They imply that the Russian Ruble has completely collapsed.

In fact, the exchange rate has fallen by 43%. Still a massive drop in less than a week (no doubt with more to come) but there is no reason to suggest that the Ruble is toilet paper right now.

It soon will be and that's the point. The devaluation is intended to instill panic in the Russian people and bring about regime change. The sanctions regime isn't intended to deter Putin. It's intended to cause the Russian people to rise up and do to Putin what Russians do when their leader gets them into unsuccessful and unpopular wars. There's a simple solution to all of Russia's current problems.

 

[angrysoba]

Zelensky wants air cover for Ukraine.

NATO says no because it doesn’t want to escalate.

How about a demand to Russia that it de-escalate?

Then if Russia refuses the no fly zone is on Russia’s head?

Yep, probably just a dream, but if not what do we do?

 

[angrysoba]

Probably already covered but this is probably just about the least wrong thing I have seen from Lindsay Graham despite it “drawing the ire” of republicans and Democrats.

Sen. Lindsey Graham's suggestion that Russians should assassinate President Vladimir Putin has drawn the ire of Republicans and Democrats concerned over the war in Ukraine.

"Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military?" the South Carolina Republican asked in a tweet.

Roman Emperor Julius Caesar was assassinated by Brutus and others in the Rome Senate on the Ides of March. Graham was also referring to German Lt. Col. Claus von Stauffenberg, who tried to kill Adolf Hitler in the summer of 1944.

"The only way this ends is for somebody in Russia to take this guy out. You would be doing your country - and the world - a great service," Graham said.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084548984/lindsey-graham-putin

 

[angrysoba]

Let’s move this discussion away from macro-economic theory etc… I am sure there are other sub-forums where that could be more productively be discussed. It really isn’t important here what True Communism is and how it differs from the notorious splitters who perverted its pure majesty.

 

[Aridas]

Probably already covered but this is probably just about the least wrong thing I have seen from Lindsay Graham despite it “drawing the ire” of republicans and Democrats.



https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084548984/lindsey-graham-putin

The ire, of course, fairly certainly has much more to do with them being irate at Graham acting to increase tensions and providing Russia with more credible material to work with, rather than disagreeing with the sentiment.

 

[BillC]

Beware of the scales on the charts. They imply that the Russian Ruble has completely collapsed.

Of course I realised the scale.