The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Ryokan]

Are there any provinces looking for independence? I've seen no indication of this, but I'm no expert, maybe I'm missing something.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Asia#Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe#Russia

 

[dudalb]

Yes, I think the plan would be a longer game. Regime change to client state first, then withdraw from NATO.

Regime change would be very hard to engineer, given how the people in the Baltics despise Russia.

 

[Olmstead]

Are there any provinces looking for independence? I've seen no indication of this, but I'm no expert, maybe I'm missing something.

Tatarstan asked for independence in 2008, but it seemed kind of half-assed. Or maybe Russia made it seem that way.

 

[dudalb]

It doesn't look like Russians have access to any Věra systems, so stealth planes might be safe.



That might have been plan, but given state of army, its current record against Ukraine and probable exhaustion of ammunition and supplies it would be even worse fail.



Can they now take even those cities? Many of them are turning into fortresses and massive bombardment is just giving defenders material fordefense and cover.

Yes, the Russians can take the cities though sheer numbers, though a very,very, high cost .
That is if VLad the Impaler sends in his good troops. instead of the conscript divisions he seems to be using.

 

[dudalb]

I've heard it said that the way for insurgents/guerillas to win war on their home turf is to just not lose. Keep fighting. Use risk averse tactics so you still have fighters, but you're still fighting. Reduce the pace of operations so you don't get all of your fighters killed - but they're still fighting, at least a little. You don't have to fight the enemy to a total military defeat, you just have to not stop fighting.

Eventually the invader just tires and leaves.

That is the strategy the US used in it's War Of Independence.

 

[dudalb]

Yeah, remarkable scenes... Russia is SO winning this war.

Some of the Russian Spokesmen are in Baghdad Bob territory.

 

[dudalb]

Dang it! And I was just going to order one too.

Only person in the US who would buy Russian Missilaes is Wile.E Coyote.

 

[Meadmaker]

Every gain Russia made in Afghanistan was eventually reversed. This will very likely be the same in Ukraine, given time.

I think what he meant was for the short term duration of this campaign.

What I see happening, based on things I've heard from people who seem to be in the know, is that this campaign will achieve its objectives. Russian military will overrun Ukraine. Zelensky will be exiled, captured, or killed, a puppet government installed, and Russia will have dominance over Ukraine.

After that, constant low level conflict, with IEDs, weapons smuggling, ambushes and the like, until Russia decides it's not worth the pain, many years from now and after Putin has died of natural causes.

Or....they could devolve completely back to the Soviet era police state, where people are constantly watched and dissent is not tolerated. That, too, would collapse eventually, just like the first time, but not without significant grief.

No matter what happens, there's a long period of "sucks" ahead for Ukraine.

 

[Venom]

There's an easy way for Ukraine to win this war:

Zelensky just needs to get Putin in a room and give him a hard stare.

Zelensky should challenge Putin to a duel like Shamil Basayev allegedly did.

 

[dudalb]

Rumors that lot of dirt is going toemerge abut figures in the Entertainment industry who have been taking dirty Russian Oligarch money. Apparenly some are pretty prominent, not the has beens like Steven Segal.

 

[dudalb]

Speaking of Segal he speaks out:

https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/putin-pal-steven-seagal-speaks-out-on-ukraine-invasion-i-look-at-both-as-one-family/

And he goes to a conspriacy theory to get Putin off the hook, No surprise.

 

[Vixen]

There's an easy way for Ukraine to win this war:

Zelensky just needs to get Putin in a room and give him a hard stare.

Unfortunately, only Brits are good at this. Centuries of repression of one's feelings.

Zelensky should just crown the guy.

 

[Armitage72]

Russia has announced it will stop selling rockets to the US.

In other news apparently Russia sells us rockets.

Specifically United Launch Alliance, a joint Boeing-Lockheed launch company that has enough Russian engines for its scheduled launches through 2024 and was planning to phase out their use anyway.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Specifically United Launch Alliance, a joint Boeing-Lockheed launch company that has enough Russian engines for its scheduled launches through 2024 and was planning to phase out their use anyway.

So to sum up, Russia's military can't even blitz Ukraine, Russia's economy is on the rocks after a few days of sanctions, Russia's oligarchs are starting to speak out against the war, Russia's attempts at propaganda are being undermined by the arrests of children and the elderly, and Russia's attempts to impose it's own sanctions on the West are almost impossibly weak?

If people weren't dying this would be hilariously farcical. As it is it's just pathetic.

 

[blutoski]

Cracks have started to appear - only small but still.


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russian-oligarchs-speak-cautiously-war-83203979

The daughter of Putin's Kremlin spokesperson is someone you'd expect to tow the line

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-spokesmans-daughter-posted-then-deleted-anti-war-message-1682851

similarly for an oil company that is subject to easy state seizure of its assets

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-energy-giant-lukoil-calls-for-immediate-end-of-ukraine-war/

Sadly, I think Putin's response would be to call them traitors and put them on the Polonium Cocktail list.

 

[blutoski]

Regime change would be very hard to engineer, given how the people in the Baltics despise Russia.

So did the Americans... once.

And then they woke up one morning with half of the NRA exec sleeping with a Russian spy and not giving a ****.

 

[blutoski]

Only person in the US who would buy Russian Missilaes is Wile.E Coyote.

Ah, but he *didn't* did he?

Leafing through all those catalogs, and he still took a pass on a MiG in favour of rocket skates and a trillion gauss magnet.

 

[lobosrul5]

Observations as an amateur history buff:

1. The sanctions applied to Russia right now are eerily similar to the restrictions placed on Japan pre-WW2 by the USA. They are often cited as the main reason Japan decided to attack us. Since The US would not sell them the oil, and they were not allowed by The US, to seek their own sources of oil by the same decree. They had no choice but to try to secure their own oil, while America was stunned by the Pearl Harbor attack, and also attacking: Philippines, Guam, Midway Island, Wake Island, Malaya, and Hong Kong.

2. The poor performance by the Russians will incite other Russian provinces looking for independence to possibly rebel.

3. If you do not want WW3, you must give Putin a respectful Out. Demanding his unconditional withdrawal without massaging his grievances will not lead to peace, and may lead to worse things than we have now.

OR STOP MURDERING PEOPLE IN CHINA

 

[dasmiller]

I have to believe that there are powerful parts of the Russian government (and not-technically-government-but-you-know) that are thinking that it's time to get Putin out of the driver's seat, and they're probably pretty motivated to act sooner rather than later.

Frankly, if he wanted to find out who wasn't fanatically loyal to him, this would be the way to do it. Much like Julius Caesar learned about Brutus.

Of course, Putin would understand this all better than I, even if he's in a yes-man bubble. What's his plan for staying alive and out of the gulag for the next few weeks?

 

[MarkCorrigan]

OR STOP MURDERING PEOPLE IN CHINA

Exactly. No one ever seems to think that "Stop doing the horrible thing that made us sanction you" is an option.