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Electric Vehicles

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So, not ten times the number of gas pumps, just ten times the number of gas pumps positioned to service long distance drivers. So only along interstates and outside of metro areas, excluding pumps for truckers, of course.

As someone who drives long distances I can honestly say that is not a huge number. Totally doable in ten years.
 
Even before you get to that point, it looks like there are already cars that will go longer than I will ever want to go without a break.

https://www.engadget.com/porsche-taycan-ev-cross-country-charging-time-record-160032782.html

That's a very interesting article. This it the real eye-opener for me:

A standard 2021 Porsche Taycan has broken the Guinness World Record for the shortest charging time to cross the United States in an electric vehicle. It only needed a cumulative charge time of 2 hours, 26 minutes and 48 seconds to cover a 2,834.5-mile drive from Los Angeles to New York.

Yes, it used some very fast chargers and yes, the driver is an experienced hyper-miler but if I was to drive nearly 3,000 miles, I'd need to stop for at least that long to eat or take bathroom breaks.
 
So, not ten times the number of gas pumps, just ten times the number of gas pumps positioned to service long distance drivers. So only along interstates and outside of metro areas, excluding pumps for truckers, of course.

As someone who drives long distances I can honestly say that is not a huge number. Totally doable in ten years.

Doable in principle? As in, do the resources exist for it to be done? Sure.

Are we going to do it in ten years? Not a god damn chance in hell. That isn't going to happen.

And really, why would we? All-electric vehicles are not well suited to long distance driving. Why spend a ton of resources trying to accommodate mass adoption of what's best left as an edge use case?
 
And sleep.

Well yes :o

As a solo driver that'd likely be a four day trip for me which means that there'd be four opportunities to recharge overnight (which wouldn't lose me any time at all) which in turn means that I'd be delayed by less than half an hour in a 10-12 hour driving day - perfectly OK in my book.
 
Doable in principle? As in, do the resources exist for it to be done? Sure.

Are we going to do it in ten years? Not a god damn chance in hell. That isn't going to happen.

And really, why would we? All-electric vehicles are not well suited to long distance driving. Why spend a ton of resources trying to accommodate mass adoption of what's best left as an edge use case?

I like hearing you talk about something that we will never do as we are doing it. And by “it” I don’t mean your silly goal of ten times the number of pumps currently in existence, but instead a network of useable, reliable charging points that meet the needs of most average long distance travelers.

By the way, the cost of a charging point compared to the cost of a new gas pump is an order of magnitude difference. The companies that hold this space in ten years will be good investments.
 
That's a very interesting article. This it the real eye-opener for me:



Yes, it used some very fast chargers and yes, the driver is an experienced hyper-miler but if I was to drive nearly 3,000 miles, I'd need to stop for at least that long to eat or take bathroom breaks.

Yeah, it’s cutting edge stuff, but all currently on the market. Not behind the curtain or in development.

Apparently Hyundai really has some very good stuff in this space. That was surprising to me.
 
Well yes :o

As a solo driver that'd likely be a four day trip for me which means that there'd be four opportunities to recharge overnight (which wouldn't lose me any time at all) which in turn means that I'd be delayed by less than half an hour in a 10-12 hour driving day - perfectly OK in my book.

And hotels can afford to add a dedicated charging point to their parking lot if there is demand. They can’t afford to add gas station that is only used by guests. Underground storage tanks are huge liability pits.
 
I like hearing you talk about something that we will never do as we are doing it. And by “it” I don’t mean your silly goal of ten times the number of pumps currently in existence, but instead a network of useable, reliable charging points that meet the needs of most average long distance travelers.

I don't think you're actually listening to what I'm saying, because you seem to be arguing against something other than my actual position.

Yes, we have a national network of chargers. Yes, it works, and you can travel cross country. I never claimed otherwise, and in fact acknowledged as much from the start.

But it's only got the capacity to handle small numbers of long distance travelers. It cannot easily scale to large numbers of such travelers. I think we won't scale it up to large numbers of long distance travelers, and you haven't provided any reason to think we will. Because frankly, it's not even worth doing, certainly not now, not likely for a long time.

By the way, the cost of a charging point compared to the cost of a new gas pump is an order of magnitude difference.

It would need to be, since gas pumps provide an order of magnitude faster throughput. But that's only the tip of the iceberg. If you're installing a bunch of high speed chargers, you need a **** ton more electrical power transmission to these stations, which isn't cheap. And you need a much bigger land footprint too, which is cheap in SOME places but certainly not all.

And that's not even touching on the problem of increasing total electric generation capacity. Since long distance driving isn't the best use case for electric, we're going to have a LOT more electric cars for short distance driving before we get a lot more for long distance. And we will need a lot more generation capacity to feed that need. That's a really big infrastructure challenge which we haven't even really started on, and it's going to be higher priority. We might be able to do it. I hope we do. But if we aren't even really talking about it, why do you think there's going to be any national effort to tackle a relatively unimportant edge case?
 
I don't think you're actually listening to what I'm saying, because you seem to be arguing against something other than my actual position.

Yes, we have a national network of chargers. Yes, it works, and you can travel cross country. I never claimed otherwise, and in fact acknowledged as much from the start.

But it's only got the capacity to handle small numbers of long distance travelers. It cannot easily scale to large numbers of such travelers. I think we won't scale it up to large numbers of long distance travelers, and you haven't provided any reason to think we will. Because frankly, it's not even worth doing, certainly not now, not likely for a long time.



It would need to be, since gas pumps provide an order of magnitude faster throughput. But that's only the tip of the iceberg. If you're installing a bunch of high speed chargers, you need a **** ton more electrical power transmission to these stations, which isn't cheap. And you need a much bigger land footprint too, which is cheap in SOME places but certainly not all.

And that's not even touching on the problem of increasing total electric generation capacity. Since long distance driving isn't the best use case for electric, we're going to have a LOT more electric cars for short distance driving before we get a lot more for long distance. And we will need a lot more generation capacity to feed that need. That's a really big infrastructure challenge which we haven't even really started on, and it's going to be higher priority. We might be able to do it. I hope we do. But if we aren't even really talking about it, why do you think there's going to be any national effort to tackle a relatively unimportant edge case?

I think it will scale just fine. Electric generation and distribution are not hard problems to understand or solve when compared to gasoline processing and distribution. People are asking for the ability to travel long distances before they will invest in EVs and the market is responding by providing both the vehicles and the charging networks to meet those demands.

I’m confused that you have so little faith in the invisible hand of the market. Or is it that you don’t understand people wanting suboptimal solutions. I’m not sure. Suboptimal solutions in car designs are baked into the market. Cars are more about who we are than what we need.

And who we are is moving away from fossil fuels and the market will keep up.

The first Tesla I saw hooked up to an Airstream was years ago and it was the silliest thing I had ever seen. But someone wanted it so someone was going to try to make it work.

So, now that we are approaching 70 miles per five minutes of charging, what do you think would be the breaking point for most consumers? 100 miles in five minutes, or do you think they would need 200 miles in five minutes?

Eta: My wife will not buy an EV until she can make it from home to her family without stopping. That’s about 300 miles. That shouldn’t be a big deal when we go shopping for her next car in about five years. And my car is used for towing, so I’ll likely be buying a hybrid next time I buy a new truck.
 
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Just one?

If that is the demand they are seeing. They are very scalable despite the massive evidence not provided in this thread that they aren’t.



They don't need to. There's a gas station just down the road.

If you want to waste your time by making another stop. But I thought this whole thing was about not having to make extra stops that waste time.
 
I think it will scale just fine. Electric generation and distribution are not hard problems to understand or solve when compared to gasoline processing and distribution.

The comparison is irrelevant. No matter how hard gas processing and distribution is, it's already been done, it doesn't need to be done again. We have a gasoline distribution network already, and we NEED to keep it. We do not actually need our network of fast chargers, and we certainly don't need it to be large.

The question regarding electric generation and distribution isn't CAN we do it, but WILL we do it, and at what cost. There is considerable environmental opposition to expanding fossil fuel and nuclear use. Solar and wind power are... problematic. The history of California's electrical grid should tell you that regardless of the simplicity of the engineering aspects of the problem, we're still having problems with it.

People are asking for the ability to travel long distances before they will invest in EVs and the market is responding by providing both the vehicles and the charging networks to meet those demands.

Most people are not clamoring for EVs, regardless of range. It is still a niche market. And pure EVs have few advantages over plug in hybrids.

I’m confused that you have so little faith in the invisible hand of the market.

You are confused about what I'm saying.

Or is it that you don’t understand people wanting suboptimal solutions.

Oh, I know people do.

But how many? Seriously, how many people specifically want an EV, and NOT a plug in hybrid, for long distance driving? How many people are willing to pay a premium to get it? I'm sure the number isn't zero, but I see no reason to think it's large.

And who we are is moving away from fossil fuels

This doesn't mean anything.

So, now that we are approaching 70 miles per five minutes of charging, what do you think would be the breaking point for most consumers? 100 miles in five minutes, or do you think they would need 200 miles in five minutes?

300 miles in 5 minutes, or 100 miles in 1 minute.
 
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