The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[uke2se]

Canada (as part of NORAD) has a long-standing history of escorting Russian 'Bear' Bombers out of the North American ADIZ. It's almost a game.



I haven't.

All of the above is fine, even the Swedish intercept. It's situation normal. Nobody (not even NATO) is afraid of Putin's sabre-rattling over Ukraine. The concern you haven't addressed, is what happens if it changes? What happens if NATO gets into an actual shooting war with Russia?

Some folks here have talked about a limited exchange of tactical nuclear weapons. What's the likelihood of it staying that way? What is the escalation path between setting off a single device and a full-on conflagration?

The way I see it, if there's any nukes (even tactical) that's game over. All of them are flying.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Are we still talking about Google here? Since when is Google a "state", and since when is trying not to lead users there preventing people from going there?

I do wonder how many countries with a less-than-friendly relationship with US/EU/"The West" are looking at what's happening to Russia and reevaluating how much of their infrastructure is controlled by non-state tech companies.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a push for more non-western alternatives in the near future for all sorts of financial and tech systems to mitigate the damage that can be done if Google or Visa or whoever decides to take their ball and go home.

 

[crescent]

What has been described as a gang of football supporters from several rival football clubs forced themselves into a train station holding Ukrainian refugees looking for dark skinned people who they had been told were hiding among the refugees.

Where? There have been a number of accusations of non-white people being denied access to trains evacuating people from eastern Ukraine to western Ukraine, and accusations that dark skinned people are not being allowed to cross border points to get out of Ukraine altogether.

There are several thousand Indian college students stuck in Kharkiv, with much drama. Yesterday there was panic when rumor went around that Ukraine was keeping them in Kharkiv on purpose, keeping them hostage to use as human shields. It went a bit viral on social media. Eventually it became clear that the Russian government was the source of the rumor and the Indian government needed to put out some press releases debunking the rumor.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Some folks here have talked about a limited exchange of tactical nuclear weapons. What's the likelihood of it staying that way? What is the escalation path between setting off a single device and a full-on conflagration?

Zero.

If someone is willing to use one nuke, they're willing to counter-nuke any retaliatory strike, so you have to assume they're going to launch everything they've got, so you need to launch everything you've got first to diminish their capabilities.

 

[JoeMorgue]

So to sum up.

- If any country tries to help Ukraine "Whoa there buckaroo. I just want to take this moment, right now, to point out that you aren't perfect either."

- Putin gets to do whatever he wants because he has nukes but other countries that have nukes can't do whatever they want because "Well Putin's just crazy, ergo he wins."

 

[jimbob]

Where? There have been a number of accusations of non-white people being denied access to trains evacuating people from eastern Ukraine to western Ukraine, and accusations that dark skinned people are not being allowed to cross border points to get out of Ukraine altogether.

There are several thousand Indian college students stuck in Kharkiv, with much drama. Yesterday there was panic when rumor went around that Ukraine was keeping them in Kharkiv on purpose, keeping them hostage to use as human shields. It went a bit viral on social media. Eventually it became clear that the Russian government was the source of the rumor and the Indian government needed to put out some press releases debunking the rumor.

It looks like it was Children and mothers first - then old people so students, being generally single and young weren't on the priority list

 

[erwinl]

The way I see it, if there's any nukes (even tactical) that's game over. All of them are flying.

I once, long time ago, saw a documentary concerning the Cuba crisis.
In that documentary some US ex-general said that if it had gone nucleair, they (the US) would have fired all the nukes at the USSR, but also China, Brazil, and any and all country that could have become any kind of competition/threat against a severely weakened post war USA.

Now, make of that what you want and I certainly beleive there would be more options for differentiating between targets now. That and there are fewer, but more accurate, nucleair weapons.

But seeing as Nucleair weapons are inherently existential weapons, the thoughts that go for planning after the war, the exit strategy as it were, is of a whole other level than any other kind of modern war. Even the one that Ukraine faces right now.

 

[Arcade22]

Canada (as part of NORAD) has a long-standing history of escorting Russian 'Bear' Bombers out of the North American ADIZ. It's almost a game.

Yeah exactly. That's how it should be handled. Biden shouldn’t respond to Putins threats by going off like Trump, frothing at mouth over how America's nukes are the biggest biggestest and most explodey.

Some folks here have talked about a limited exchange of tactical nuclear weapons. What's the likelihood of it staying that way? What is the escalation path between setting off a single device and a full-on conflagration?

Just don't do it. If somehow Russia ends up in direct armed conflict with Russia the key is to avoid making Putin (or whoever is in charge) feel cornered enough that they have to use them to make up for their traditional military weakness.

 

[Jimbo07]

- Putin gets to do whatever he wants because he has nukes but other countries that have nukes can't do whatever they want because "Well Putin's just crazy, ergo he wins."

This is the heart of it.

If NATO won't get involved in a direct shooting war with Putin, what else can be done? NATO countries, which are so-far exercising restraint, can't just do whatever they want.

ETA:

Yeah exactly. That's how it should be handled. Biden shouldn’t respond to Putins threats by going off like Trump, frothing at mouth over how America's nukes are the biggest biggestest and most explodey.

He hasn't. He's done the opposite. Biden has acknowledged, "That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another." It's been people online who have been talking about NATO taking a hardline, creating a no-fly zone, etc. To those folks I ask, how can NATO get involved directly, without opening a path to final escalation?

 

[JoeMorgue]

How can NATO not get involved without just gift wrapping the Ukraine for Russia, which will then within an almost metaphysical certainty gift wrap Taiwan for China, and more of Eastern Europe for Russia, and embolden every dictator, from tinpot to world class, to take whatever they want?

It's not a question of Putin getting this, it's a question of Putin and everyone like him getting whatever they want forever.

I don't want to risk nuclear war either, but I kind of have to insist on something other than "Well the bad guys get whatever they want in every situation forever because they are bad and that gives an advantage."

Again as with all things "Oh lordy but we can't do anything to stop the evil" and being on the evil's side is not a very big distinction from me.

 

[trustbutverify]

So to sum up.

- If any country tries to help Ukraine "Whoa there buckaroo. I just want to take this moment, right now, to point out that you aren't perfect either."

- Putin gets to do whatever he wants because he has nukes but other countries that have nukes can't do whatever they want because "Well Putin's just crazy, ergo he wins."

Yes. That's the result of the groundwork Putin's been engineering for the past twenty odd years.

 

[shemp]

In a letter to U.S. Ambassador Tom Nides, Yad Vashem, together with the country’s chief Ashkenazi Rabbi David Lau and Sheba Medical Center Director Yitshak Kreiss, asked that the United States not sanction Abramovich, a major donor to the memorial and other Jewish causes. They said that sanctioning him would cause harm to Jewish institutions that rely on him for donations, said Yad Vashem Chairman Dani Dayan. He said Abramovich was the museum’s second-largest private donor, after the late Sheldon Adelson and his widow, Miriam.

I'd say that if those are your two biggest donors, "**** YOU!"

 

[JoeMorgue]

Also we fought a LOT bigger proxy wars with USSR/Russia over the years. If Korea and Vietnam and Cuba didn't inevitably with no hope of turning back lead into slinging nukes this won't either.

 

[Ryokan]

Where? There have been a number of accusations of non-white people being denied access to trains evacuating people from eastern Ukraine to western Ukraine, and accusations that dark skinned people are not being allowed to cross border points to get out of Ukraine altogether.

It was reported in several Norwegian newspapers. A journalist from the Norwegian Dagbladet was at the scene, and talked to both the football supporters and to the mayor's office. A representative from the mayor's office had this message: Don't believe in fake news, what the websites of these football supporters say isn't true.

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/stormet-togstasjon-full-av-flyktninger/75507424

You can google translate that, or here is a site talking about the troubles of dark skinned refugees, sourcing all their claims:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03...rn-of-false-information-about-refugee-crimes/

Extreme racists and xenophobes in Poland isn't hard to believe.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Also we fought a LOT bigger proxy wars with USSR/Russia over the years. If Korea and Vietnam and Cuba didn't inevitably with no hope of turning back lead into slinging nukes this won't either.

All these proxy wars followed the same general rule that direct conflict between NATO and the USSR was to be avoided. The Cuban missile crisis being a crisis because this rule was almost breached, with US and USSR warships on a collision course.

So far there has been no indication that this red line will be crossed, which is good.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Okay so do put the bow on the Ukraine and hand deliver it to Putin ourselves our would that just be too obvious?

 

[Ryokan]

Also we fought a LOT bigger proxy wars with USSR/Russia over the years. If Korea and Vietnam and Cuba didn't inevitably with no hope of turning back lead into slinging nukes this won't either.

Proxy war is proxy war. NATO and Russia in actual war with each other, that's something different.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Okay so do put the bow on the Ukraine and hand deliver it to Putin ourselves our would that just be too obvious?

Well, we have a long history of proxy wars to show us what to do.

Flooding Ukraine with weapons, war material, and other resources that allows them to continue their resistance of Russian invasion/occupation seems like an obvious answer. I've read reports of Stinger anti-aircraft rocket systems being shipped over.

Continued non-military retaliation seems pretty easy to justify as well.

 

[blutoski]

Russian will turn into North Korea after this...

Honestly, it already is, which is why NK backed them in the UN.

I have the complete collection of Wired Magazine, and occasionally leaf through random issues out of nostalgia.

In one issue in the 90s, Bruce Sterling wrote an essay about Russia's future. He felt they were at a fork in the road where they could either become a robust democracy or collapse into a dangerous, povertystricken, tin pot dictatorship.

He called the latter route "Burkina Faso with rusting nukes," and I think we're there now.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Also we fought a LOT bigger proxy wars with USSR/Russia over the years. If Korea and Vietnam and Cuba didn't inevitably with no hope of turning back lead into slinging nukes this won't either.

Ah, but there's a difference now: before, it was the USSR and they at least theoretically represented communism. They had an ideology and wanted to persuade the world that communism (their style of it) was awesome. Now it's just Russia, and Russian ethnicity, and Russian nationalism. There's nothing for the rest of the world in what Russia's doing. The USSR helping another country overthrow imperialist capitalism etc etc was a triumph for communism. Russia helping itself to its neighbors' territory means nothing for other countries. There's no appeal to the working classes of foreign nations there. There's no class struggle, no philosophy, no greater cause involved. Russia, being entirely self-serving, has no reason to not to do its absolute worst. The USSR had to hold back so as not to damage the cause (whether it was acting in sincere belief for the ideology or just PR is a different question).