The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Arcade22]

As has been repeatedly pointed out in this thread, and has been repeatedly demonstrated in past wars, claims from one side for losses are rarely credible because they overestimate damage done to the opposition and understate their own losses.

To try and get a less biased number, should these figures be divided by 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 ?

I think the silence coming from Russia is evidence enough that the Ukrainians are not grossly exaggerating casualties. Even 1/2 of that would be disastrous enough, and given that they just tried to roll into Ukraine expecting minimal resistance i don't find it incredible they were utterly decimated.

A recent and relevant NYT article:

Neither side’s claims have been independently verified, and Biden administration officials have refused to discuss casualty figures publicly. But one American official put the Russian losses as of Monday at 2,000, an estimate with which two European officials concurred.

Senior Pentagon officials told lawmakers in closed briefings on Monday that Russian and Ukrainian military deaths appeared to be the same, at around 1,500 on each side in the first five days, congressional officials said. But they cautioned that the figures — based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports — were estimates.

For a comparison, nearly 2,500 American troops were killed in Afghanistan over 20 years of war.

...

In particular, Pentagon officials and military analysts said it was surprising that Russian soldiers had left behind the bodies of their comrades.

“It’s been shocking to see that they’re leaving their fallen brethren behind on the battlefield,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. “Eventually the moms will be like, ‘Where’s Yuri? Where’s Maksim?’”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war-deaths.html

It's easy to argue that whatever tangible gain Russia eventually makes is going to be completely nullified by the losses and economic damage this war has caused. Then again Putin clearly pictures himself as a heroic figure of legend whose war is going to decisively change the course of history in Russia's favor.

 

[theprestige]

Unfortunately whatever tangible gain Russia eventually makes will be at the cost of Ukrainian land and lives. That the victory wasn't worth the effort will be cold comfort to the people who have lost their homes and their loved ones and won't be getting them back. This isn't just about Russia winning, it's about Ukraine losing even if Russia also "loses".

 

[Michel H]

Unfortunately whatever tangible gain Russia eventually makes will be at the cost of Ukrainian land and lives. That the victory wasn't worth the effort will be cold comfort to the people who have lost their homes and their loved ones and won't be getting them back. This isn't just about Russia winning, it's about Ukraine losing even if Russia also "loses".

This why it is important to often remind Ukraine that it can probably stop this painful experience by making very reasonable concessions: Crimea belongs to Russia, the two republics are independant, Ukraine won't join NATO for a while and so on.

What is important in this situation isn't so much to be tough or heroic. It is more important to be smart, and to have the too rare ability to admit one's mistakes.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

They aren't reasonable by any measure. You're suggesting appeasement of a psychotic dictator. That worked so well in 1939.

 

[EaglePuncher]

This why it is important to often remind Ukraine that it can probably stop this painful experience by making very reasonable concessions: Crimea belongs to Russia, the two republics are independant, Ukraine won't join NATO for a while and so on.

What is important in this situation isn't so much to be tough or heroic. It is more important to be smart, and to have the too rare ability to admit one's mistakes.

Can I have your full address, please?

I'd like to visit your home with some of my friends. Plan is: Kick down your door, come into your home and when you reach for the phone to call the police I will smack it out of your hand and explain to you that your best course of action would be to not be a hero, just give us the keys,your wallet and then pack your stuff and leave before really ugly things are happening

 

[Andy_Ross]

Paralympic athletes from Russia and Belarus must compete as neutrals at the forthcoming Beijing 2022 Paralympic Winter Games.

A statement by the International Paralympic Committee says the athletes - who have already arrived in China - will compete under the Paralympic flag.

They will not be included in the medal table, the IPC said.

The IPC said it had taken "the strongest possible actions" within the parameters available to them.

 

[Andy_Ross]

As has been repeatedly pointed out in this thread, and has been repeatedly demonstrated in past wars, claims from one side for losses are rarely credible because they overestimate damage done to the opposition and understate their own losses.

To try and get a less biased number, should these figures be divided by 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 ?

We have only two numbers. that put out by the Ukraine and that put out by Russia who won't admit any losses.

 

[trustbutverify]

This why it is important to often remind Ukraine that it can probably stop this painful experience by making very reasonable concessions: Crimea belongs to Russia, the two republics are independant, Ukraine won't join NATO for a while and so on.

What is important in this situation isn't so much to be tough or heroic. It is more important to be smart, and to have the too rare ability to admit one's mistakes.

Perhaps Zelinskyy could be required to apologize personally to Putin for the inconvenience.

 

[Michel H]

Which concessions are Putin and his brownshirts required to make in this deal?

His military forces should certainly leave Ukraine, where they shouldn't be. This would go a long way helping the Ukrainians, I think.

 

[jimbob]

I agree, but IMO there's no way for him to be removed from power. His inner and outer circle have been purged of any kind of dissent so there's no-one close enough to the levers of power to remove him from power - and that includes by assassination. Therefore the war will continue.

Almost every strongman in history thought that.

Many were deposed by (palace or otherwise) coups or revolutions

 

[trustbutverify]

Can I have your full address, please?

I'd like to visit your home with some of my friends. Plan is: Kick down your door, come into your home and when you reach for the phone to call the police I will smack it out of your hand and explain to you that your best course of action would be to not be a hero, just give us the keys,your wallet and then pack your stuff and leave before really ugly things are happening

The fact that Michael put that door up in the first place was a provocation. He should be able to admit his mistakes.

 

[Michel H]

Perhaps Zelinskyy could be required to apologize personally to Putin for the inconvenience.

He could, but Putin has also things to apologize for.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

His military forces should certainly leave Ukraine, where they shouldn't be. This would go a long way helping the Ukrainians, I think.

Absolutely, including Crimea and Donbass.

 

[EaglePuncher]

The fact that Michael put that door up in the first place was a provocation. He should be able to admit his mistakes.

 

[Olmstead]

No point arguing this with Michel H. Someone who doesn't believe that war with Germany was the right course of action won't be convinced that Russia's demands should be rejected.

 

[Wudang]

The fact that Michael put that door up in the first place was a provocation. He should be able to admit his mistakes.

And I think we can all agree that it's reasonable for him to allow us to keep his kitchen.

 

[The Don]

And I think we can all agree that it's reasonable for him to allow us to keep his kitchen.

Or at the very least, his oven*


* - Which is likely gas-powered

 

[Andy_Ross]

With the economy Russia are going to have after this finishes it will take a long time to rebuild their forces.

 

[The Don]

With the economy Russia are going to have after this finishes it will take a long time to rebuild their forces.

True, but scant comfort for the people living in the smoking ruin that used to be Ukraine.

Putin won't be able to come a-calling for a few years.

 

[GrandMasterFox]

Can I have your full address, please?

I'd like to visit your home with some of my friends. Plan is: Kick down your door, come into your home and when you reach for the phone to call the police I will smack it out of your hand and explain to you that your best course of action would be to not be a hero, just give us the keys,your wallet and then pack your stuff and leave before really ugly things are happening

You forgot the part where before you leave you also wink and mention you will be back very shortly to take everything you can't carry at the moment and ask him kindly to inform his neighbors they are next.