The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[trustbutverify]

Regardless, isn't he a far left liberal? I can't see him supporting Russia in this.

IMO: The one and only thing upsetting Greenwald about this invasion is that it exposed him to public humiliation in response to his sneering mockery of the "elitist liberal deep state" warning of a full scale invasion. He will, in due course, delete his twitter feed leading up to this crisis... and it won't be the first time he's done that.

 

[Oystein]

|You asked and I answered, do you think I am telling a lie?

I think you are wrong. But that's just my judgement.

What you have to ask is why aren't they being deployed if they are able to be deployed?

You said it: To have replacements. And to go for the objectives of the days after 3.
(I said 1/3 is deployed; in the meantime I found this is outdated, a number circulated yesterday; today's most repeated number is "more than half")

 

[eerok]

Some military aid for Ukraine.

Germany will send critical military equipment to Ukraine, marking a shift in policy (npr.org)

 

[Wudang]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kremlin-website-hacked-b2024046.html


"Kremlin website goes down as Russian TV channels ‘hacked to play Ukrainian songs’"

 

[jimbob]

Well, no, but maybe all the disconnect Putin needed for that was believing in the strong military image Russia has been trying to project. And I bet he has plenty of folks working under him who had a stake in making him believe that image.

Elsewhere (?) I said that if you were a lieutenant of Putin's would you tell him when he had bad ideas?

 

[Andy_Ross]

An unnamed NATO official on CNN is saying the Russians lack diesel, are behind schedule, and may have a morale problem.

ETA: If it ultimately turns out that Putin has goofed, it's awful to think of the death and destruction in the wake of his folly.

Something about Sherlock and ******

 

[timhau]

Elsewhere (?) I said that if you were a lieutenant of Putin's would you tell him when he had bad ideas?

Exactly. And if you were the commander who had been skimming off the top of every shipment of supplies and equipment, would you say your troops aren't fit for war?

 

[Oystein]

Then the Russians are completely incompetent if they had no plan to take out power and comms as quickly as possible.

That's a reasonable opinion.

I did not expect him to attack at all with the numbers of troops he had available. It's not enough to do the job.

Accepted.

Then what is the plan?

I don't know. Neither do you. That's the point.
Probably something or two went not according to expectations.
But in a campaign that has many operational objectives, it is to be expected that some expectations are not met. We just cannot be sure which those are, as long as we are not privy to what the expectations were in the first place.

As far as I can see the 'plan' was to drive to Kyiv un opposed apart from a token show from Ukraine.

It's the only thing that explains the hash they are making of it.

Perhaps.
Perhaps not.
Perhaps they are merely probing how the Ukrainians doing or what their tactics are, to better prepare the real assault.
Perhaps going into Kyiv was not the plan at all, but some commanders in the field went all drunk with success and stepped way beyond his orders, and now they look for a way to save face.
Perhaps...

 

[Jimbo07]

Something about Sherlock and ******

Some have posted here about not knowing Russia's schedule/plans/etc.

This is unconfirmed, but if it's truly NATO's assessment that Russia is short on fuel, morale and time, then those speculating about a Russian military mess may be on to something.

 

[Wudang]

Elsewhere (?) I said that if you were a lieutenant of Putin's would you tell him when he had bad ideas?

This is a parsimonious explanation for much of the (what appears to be) cluster (cough) "intimacy" we seem to be seeing.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I think you are wrong. But that's just my judgement.


You said it: To have replacements. And to go for the objectives of the days after 3.
(I said 1/3 is deployed; in the meantime I found this is outdated, a number circulated yesterday; today's most repeated number is "more than half")

They need them now, they are not making objectives and the Ukrainian forces are not collapsing. The Russians should have already sent in some reserves to reinforce at least one of their attacks or send a new one in on a new front.
They seem to be lacking in basic tactical skills.

It's as if Putin thinks the old Soviet doctrine of sending in an overwhelming wave of armour and troops willing to take huge casualties and wear down the opposition through sheer numbers will work when you don't have the numbers.

I am not saying that Ukraine won't eventually be beaten down but it's going to be a close run thing that is showing the Russians to be a Paper Tiger.

 

[Oystein]

There is one thing that has encouraged me in this fog of war: I saw a couple of reports of instances where Ukranian officials corrected some false information of the sort "Russia is attacking here" or "Ukrainian troops have recaptured...". You know, claims that, if true, would help the Ukrainian propaganda game.

Seems someone in the leadership in Kyiv believes that truth, or at least correctness, is actually an asset sometimes. Like, it helps your credibility.

 

[Michel H]

Well, the Ukraine wouldn't have any pilots or infrastructure or logistics for it and the USA isn't going tp put an F-35 in a position where one could be brought down and captured by the Russians.
How long do you think it takes to train a pilot to fly and fight and F-35?

I would guess perhaps a week or two for a pilot trained to fly a Sukhoi Su-27, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-27 (if they are serious pilots, they may have studied the "famous" F-35 already):

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is one of the most software-intensive mission systems ever built, allowing it to take in, process and display a host of information to its pilot.

It’s given critics a reason to blast the aircraft as a flying computer instead of just an aircraft, giving the pilot more unnecessary tasks if he or she were in battle.

But because of its state-of-the-art design, how a pilot uses, for example, its data communications network is surprisingly simple, an F-35 pilot recently told Military.com
“Operating between the systems is really easy. I don’t have engineers’ understanding of the systems; I couldn’t tell you how to design them, but I can tell you it is extremely simple,” said 1st Lt. Brett Burnside, who recently graduated the Air Force’s B-course at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona.

(https://www.military.com/defensetec...n the systems is,Luke Air Force Base, Arizona.)

Every time a combat aircraft is used in a combat situation, it could be brought down and captured by the adversary. This is true for the F-35s used by Israel over Syria for example. If you are not ready to accept that, you just put them in an exhibition.

If the Russians hear that advanced aircraft are coming (not necessarily F-35s, which are somewhat special, F-16s, probably more similar to the Su-27, could be used too; this would have to be decided by the experts), this could have a powerful deterrence effect.

 

[crescent]

One powerful weapon that the Ukrainians have not received from the West so far is combat aircraft, like the F-35 for example.

Providing those, together with proper training for Ukrainian pilots, could perhaps make a big difference, by allowing Ukraine to achieve air superiority.

To avoid making our Russian friends too angry, these planes could perhaps be supplied with the condition that they would be used only for purely defensive purposes (i.e. no strike in Russian territory without a special permission).

Captain Swoop has already pointed out why this would be pointless. It would take weeks if not months for pilots to become operational and where could they train ?

They could perhaps train in Poland, a country which has an experience of Russian occupation, and which seems big enough and far enough from Russia (contrary perhaps to the Baltic states).

Good professional pilots who have already be trained on (relatively) modern aircraft, like the Sukhoi Su-27 (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-27, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force) shouldn't require too much time to learn a modern Western aircraft, that they have perhaps already studied as military pilots, especially if there is urgency.


(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force)

Don't give them f-35s. Give them Su27s, Su25, Mig29s that are currently in NATO inventory - all of the old Warsaw Pact nations still have those with upgrades.

So give those to Ukraine and replace them in NATO inventory with F-35s (or F-18s, F-16, F-15). It would take time for the ex-Warsaw Pact nations to train up on the new jets, but they have time.

Ukraine, by contrast, could make use of donated Su-27s, Mig-29s, and SU-25s today. No need to train up much, just get up to speed with whatever upgrades the old Soviet era NATO jets have that Ukrainian Soviet era jets didn't.

 

[Andy_Ross]

That's a reasonable opinion.


Accepted.


I don't know. Neither do you. That's the point.
Probably something or two went not according to expectations.
But in a campaign that has many operational objectives, it is to be expected that some expectations are not met. We just cannot be sure which those are, as long as we are not privy to what the expectations were in the first place.


Perhaps.
Perhaps not.
Perhaps they are merely probing how the Ukrainians doing or what their tactics are, to better prepare the real assault.
Perhaps going into Kyiv was not the plan at all, but some commanders in the field went all drunk with success and stepped way beyond his orders, and now they look for a way to save face.
Perhaps...

It's a complete **** show.
I know the saying goes that no plan survives first contact with the enemy but there seems to a a com0lete lack of command and control.

 

[trustbutverify]

Some have posted here about not knowing Russia's schedule/plans/etc.

This is unconfirmed, but if it's truly NATO's assessment that Russia is short on fuel, morale and time, then those speculating about a Russian military mess may be on to something.

Good point.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Roman Abramovich: “I am today giving trustees of Chelsea’s charitable Foundation the stewardship and care of Chelsea FC.
I believe that currently they are in the best position to look after the interests of the Club, players, staff, and fans.”

“Stewardship” but not “ownership” transferred.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Can we get a "Downfall" Video of Putin complaining about his failed invasion?

 

[Wudang]

Roman Abramovich: “I am today giving trustees of Chelsea’s charitable Foundation the stewardship and care of Chelsea FC.
I believe that currently they are in the best position to look after the interests of the Club, players, staff, and fans.”

“Stewardship” but not “ownership” transferred.

Described by David Allen Green and other "legal" tweeters as legally meaningless.
e.g. https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1497658720200843266?s=20&t=sh1GTdLa45Ne-vudTgN-lg

 

[Andy_Ross]

There is speculation that the Russian units in the centre of Kyiv have been there for a few weeks 'undercover' waiting for the word.
They went in to action yesterday expecting the Russian forces to be in the city by now but it's all gone wrong.
They are now isolated, and been hunted down.

A replay of the airborne troops arriving at the airfields and the ground forces not making their objectives.

Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko has imposed a curfew from Saturday evening until Monday morning
He says anyone seen in the streets will be considered a Russian "saboteur"