The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Arcade22]

There was an interview with a military analyst on the BBC who said that the Russians were being restrained! He pointed out that the Russians had experience from Syria and elsewhere of urban warfare and could be very aggressive.

The fighting in Syria was of a different kind than this. Not at all comparable.

 

[Oystein]

I pretend to know that it should have been the plan, and that if it wasn't the plan someone screwed up their planning big time. And if it was the plan, someone screwed up their implementation big time.


Every appearance of Russia failing is obviously just them actually succeeding at whatever their actual goals are? None of it can be just Russia failing at something?


Honestly I wasn't expecting him to go so hard for Kiev so soon in the first place. I also wasn't expecting him to drop light infantry and special forces into Kiev without being up to the task of promptly reinforcing them and securing the territory they were fighting for.

But then, I wouldn't have expected the Battle of Mogadishu to play out the way it did. Yet here we are.


It should be the plan. If it's not the plan, then someone screwed up their planning.

Agreed.

It's one thing to point out that the operation is not going well according to some standard (and I agree without hesitation: Russia should be so overwhelmingly dominant that they should be able to come up with a plan and execute it that assures they meet objective by objective without running into that much sustained, costly defense). it is quite another to now claim, in retrospect, what expectations were here and there, unless there is evidence those expectations were indeed had.

I laid out my expectations much earlier, I think in the previous thread: That Putin would play a long game, go for the lowest-hanging fruits in Donbass first. Secure the entire oblasts of Luhansk and Donezk. Then take a pause. Then go for Odessa and the Black Sea coast. Then stop and wait for the dust to settle. Then besiege (not attack) Kyiv. Take your time. And wait for the right moment where a puppet government could be installed that would welcome Russian troops into the city. I was thinking perhaps years.

Obviously, Putin had other ideas. Is he on course? I don't think we can know this, as he hasn't given us his roadmap.
Are his ideas any good? Well, no, but that means we can guess his expectations even less.

 

[Michel H]

One powerful weapon that the Ukrainians have not received from the West so far is combat aircraft, like the F-35 for example.

Providing those, together with proper training for Ukrainian pilots, could perhaps make a big difference, by allowing Ukraine to achieve air superiority.

To avoid making our Russian friends too angry, these planes could perhaps be supplied with the condition that they would be used only for purely defensive purposes (i.e. no strike in Russian territory without a special permission).

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

.... Greenwald has frothed and melted down over this, but I don't think he has once said he opposes Putin's invasion.

Seriously, you think Greewald has to spell that out?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Again, Russian assault troops might have those night vision goggles on paper. Maybe themoney for those went to Putin's cronies, or maybe someone further down the ladder just sold them one-by-one or in bulk. In systems where the top brass steals, everyone steals.

It does seem like that corruption is showing behind the curtain. I'm surprised by it. Russia has put on a great facade of military might.

 

[trustbutverify]

Seriously, you think Greewald has to spell that out?

I won't believe him even if he does "spell it out". I think he's a compulsive liar.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Hey, that gives me an idea: hire planes to airdrop cases of Vodka on Russian Troops; the invasion would stop cold.

 

[Oystein]

I have indeed considered it.

And? What was the result of that consideration?

If you know of a social media outlet where all the phone video being taken by Russian troops, showing them kicking Ukrainian ass, is being posted, please share.

I am not into that kind of social media outlets, sorry.

There's a lot that I don't know, but think I would need to know before I can conclude that the lopsidedness of videos on a certain social media feed is proportional to the lopsidedness on the battlefield.
For example: Are Russian soldiers allowed to bring smartphones, and do they have internet connection? If "no" to either or both, that would sufficiently explain the absence of Russian victory videos on social media.
Are Russian soldiers forbidden under the threat of stiff penalties to share any media that show Ukrainians being shot at, even dying? Not entirely implausible, as Russian state media are forbidden to show fighting in Kyiv - their message is one of peaceful tank columns rolling into freed communities being welcome by the population.

 

[The Don]

One powerful weapon that the Ukrainians have not received from the West so far is combat aircraft, like the F-35 for example.

Providing those, together with proper training for Ukrainian pilots, could perhaps make a big difference, by allowing Ukraine to achieve air superiority.

To avoid making our Russian friends too angry, these planes could perhaps be supplied with the condition that they would be used only for purely defensive purposes (i.e. no strike in Russian territory without a special permission).

Captain Swoop has already pointed out why this would be pointless. It would take weeks if not months for pilots to become operational and where could they train ?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Expecting Donnie to do something useful for someone? If he's that crazy, the world is in deep doodoo.

From the outside of our country it might very well look like Dump has a lot of power, especially given the status of the Dump cult in our Congress. But from the inside, Dump's continuing to claim he really won the election (because of Dump's pathologic narcissism) is making him look more and more out of touch. And that weakens his cult legislators and other followers as well.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is why sanctions COULD be effective as long as they really really make sure the oligarchs hurt from this. Putin needs a support structure and that is what the west can aim to destroy.

Do said oligarchs really have any power over Putin?

 

[Oystein]

(https://english.news.cn/20220226/90a199c867164f529167e74e8f20cf32/c.html)

Thanks for posting this link. it gives us a reliable source for what the current official position of the Chinese government is, it is, after all, an official Chinese news source.

You quoted only one of five points that Foreign Minister Wang Yi enumerated on Friday. Let me look at and comment on them point by point:

Firstly, China stands for respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and earnestly abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China's position is consistent and clear, and it also applies to the Ukraine issue.

it is difficult to read this in any way other than that Ukraine should not be carved up, swallowed or occupied.
It is silent on whether China might tolerate a regime change toward Friends of Putin.

Secondly, China advocates the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, he said.

China believes that a country's security cannot come at the expense of harming others' security, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by reinforcing and even expanding military blocs. And all countries' reasonable security concerns should be respected. The Cold War mentality should be completely abandoned.

Following the five consecutive rounds of eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia's legitimate demands on security should be taken seriously and solved in a proper way, Wang added.

This seems to be saying that China shares Russia's complaints before this invasion - but invasion is not proper.

Thirdly, China has been following the evolution of the Ukraine issue, and the present situation is something China does not want to see.

It is absolutely imperative that all parties exercise necessary restraint in order to prevent the situation in Ukraine from deteriorating or even getting out of control. The safety of ordinary people's lives and properties should be effectively safeguarded, and in particular, large-scale humanitarian crises have to be prevented.

Sounds like China did not expect the operation to be so big and disapproves

Fourthly, the Chinese side supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. And China welcomes direct talks and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible.

The Ukraine issue has evolved in a complex historical context. Ukraine should be a bridge of communication between the East and the West, instead of the frontline of confrontations between major countries.

China also supports Europe and Russia in their efforts to hold dialogue on an equal footing over the European security issue, uphold the notion of indivisible security, and eventually form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism.

Sounds good - but that ship has sailed for the moment: You cannot negotiate "on an equal footing" nor have "direct talks and negotiations" as long as one party is actively attacking the other.

Fifthly, China believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine issue and that regional peace and stability as well as the security of all countries should be put first.

Actions taken by the Security Council should reduce the tension rather than add fuel to the flames, and should help advance the settlement of the issue through diplomatic means rather than further escalating the situation.

China is always opposed to wilfully citing the Chapter VII in Security Council resolutions to authorize the use of force and sanctions.

This is of course silly. Wang knows as well as everybody that the SC will take no action as Russia will veto everything.

 

[kookbreaker]

The fighting in Syria was of a different kind than this. Not at all comparable.

Being aggressive has its place, but also note that Grozny, for example, was a nice bit of aggressive urban attacking….at first.

 

[Andy_Ross]

If true it suggests that either the Russian forces were supposed to forage local food supplies like days of yore or the Russians forgot the old line about "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistic".

Or they weren't expecting any opposition.

Even if they were, a Russian Armoured Division has around 10,000 men and a Mechanised Infantry Division around 12,000 men. That needs a lot of transport to keep fed when they are in the field.

 

[Michel H]

Captain Swoop has already pointed out why this would be pointless. It would take weeks if not months for pilots to become operational and where could they train ?

They could perhaps train in Poland, a country which has an experience of Russian occupation, and which seems big enough and far enough from Russia (contrary perhaps to the Baltic states).

Good professional pilots who have already be trained on (relatively) modern aircraft, like the Sukhoi Su-27 (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-27, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force) shouldn't require too much time to learn a modern Western aircraft, that they have perhaps already studied as military pilots, especially if there is urgency.

Ukraine still possesses the world's 27th largest air force and the 7th largest air force in Europe, largely due to the ability of its domestic defense industry Ukroboronprom and its Antonov subsidiary to maintain its older aircraft.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force)

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I won't believe him even if he does "spell it out". I think he's a compulsive liar.

Regardless, isn't he a far left liberal? I can't see him supporting Russia in this.

 

[Mike!]

Or they weren't expecting any opposition.

I suspect he watched how quickly and effectively the Taliban retook Afghanistan and thought to himself, "That was easy!", without knowing the Bridge of Death Keeper had some harder questions up his sleeve.

 

[theprestige]

And? What was the result of that consideration?

Russia may very well be winning this war, but so far I'm not seeing it. Also, I think if Russia had the upper hand on social media r/publicfreakout and other sources would be showing that.

I am not into that kind of social media outlets, sorry.

No worries.

There's a lot that I don't know, but think I would need to know before I can conclude that the lopsidedness of videos on a certain social media feed is proportional to the lopsidedness on the battlefield.
For example: Are Russian soldiers allowed to bring smartphones, and do they have internet connection? If "no" to either or both, that would sufficiently explain the absence of Russian victory videos on social media.

US troops have been ambushed by insurgents tracking their movements via their activity app uploads. I don't think you can reasonably *stop* troops from taking cell phones into combat and fooling around with them.

Are Russian soldiers forbidden under the threat of stiff penalties to share any media that show Ukrainians being shot at, even dying? Not entirely implausible, as Russian state media are forbidden to show fighting in Kyiv - their message is one of peaceful tank columns rolling into freed communities being welcome by the population.

Have you seen any of that message being spammed around?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...

For example: Are Russian soldiers allowed to bring smartphones, and do they have internet connection? If "no" to either or both, that would sufficiently explain the absence of Russian victory videos on social media.
Are Russian soldiers forbidden under the threat of stiff penalties to share any media that show Ukrainians being shot at, even dying? Not entirely implausible, as Russian state media are forbidden to show fighting in Kyiv - their message is one of peaceful tank columns rolling into freed communities being welcome by the population.

Did you see my earlier link said soldiers were told to turn their phones off because they'd been trying to pick up Ukrainian girls on Tinder and the soldiers' pics were giving away their locations and other sensitive information?

 

[kookbreaker]

They could perhaps train in Poland, a country which has an experience of Russian occupation, and which seems big enough and far enough from Russia (contrary perhaps to the Baltic states).

Good professional pilots who have already be trained on (relatively) modern aircraft, like the Sukhoi Su-27 (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-27, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force) shouldn't require too much time to learn a modern Western aircraft, that they have perhaps already studied as military pilots, especially if there is urgency.


(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force)

Dude, I really doubt that the F-35 HUD, software and instruments have a Cyrillic version just ready to go.