The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Andy_Ross]

OHm Russia will probably overwhelm the conventonal forces with sheer numbers.

Where will these 'sheer numbers' come from?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Sure thing.
I totally expected the lottery numbers of last weekend.

|You asked and I answered, do you think I am telling a lie?

Just heard a military analyst here on TV: Russia so far has deployed only a third of the troops they amassed at the borders in recent weeks.

What you have to ask is why aren't they being deployed if they are able to be deployed?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I suspect he watched how quickly and effectively the Taliban retook Afghanistan and thought to himself, "That was easy!", without knowing the Bridge of Death Keeper had some harder questions up his sleeve.

And sadly by that same token China might be picking up lessons from the Russian invasion that they could later use when/if they move to take Taiwan back.

 

[theprestige]

Do said oligarchs really have any power over Putin?

Do the corrupt kleptocrats sitting at the top of every major and minor Russian industrial and military concern have a say in whether that concern throws its full support and obedience at Putin's feet whenever he asks? Yes, probably.

Are they all lying about the amount and quality of resources they have available to commit to his cause, versus the amount they've skimmed off the top to line their own pockets and ensure their own exit strategies? Yes, probably.

Are most of them constantly wondering if Putin is the best man to look after their interests, or whether they might be better off if Putin had a tragic accident and some interim goon had to take over while they found a new front man? Yes, probably.

Does Putin's personality cult extend to the highest levels of the Russian oligarchy, ensuring unquestioning loyalty and commitment from the cabal whose hands are on the levers of power in the country? No, probably not

 

[Andy_Ross]

It's not even been three days.
You pretend to know exactly that the plan was to take down power and communications in 3 days.
This obviously is not the plan.

Then the Russians are completely incompetent if they had no plan to take out power and comms as quickly as possible.

I am 100% convinced you did NOT expect he'd sent troops into (yes, troops. Yes, into. You may wish to obfuscate this fact as much as you wish, you won't make it go away) Kyiv on day 2.

I did not expect him to attack at all with the numbers of troops he had available. It's not enough to do the job.

So you think a proper plan is to take out power and communications, so that then you can move troops in safely and successfully? Well, this is obviously NOT the plan.

Then what is the plan? As far as I can see the 'plan' was to drive to Kyiv un opposed apart from a token show from Ukraine.

It's the only thing that explains the hash they are making of it.

 

[theprestige]

And sadly by that same token China might be picking up lessons from the Russian invasion that they could later use when/if they move to take Taiwan back.

I think Taiwan is a completely different scenario, with not a lot in common with what's going on in Ukraine. About the only transferable lesson is probably "don't send in your paratroops too early, before your regular forces can quickly reinforce them."

Which is a pretty obvious lesson that everyone should have learned already just by thinking about it for two seconds.

 

[kookbreaker]

I think Taiwan is a completely different scenario, with not a lot in common with what's going on in Ukraine. About the only transferable lesson is probably "don't send in your paratroops too early, before your regular forces can quickly reinforce them."

Which is a pretty obvious lesson that everyone should have learned already just by thinking about it for two seconds.

/plays theme from “A Bridge Too Far”.

 

[jimbob]

Hard to say what goes on in his bloated little head, but would that help? I'm sure invading Ukraine was supposed to be a show of strength, which it hasn't been. By any sane standards, dropping a nuke isn't either.

And would a leader who's in touch with reality have ordered an attack in the manner of Russia's?

 

[Arcade22]

The Kremlin rushed to maintain its narrative, signaling the start of a new and more brutal phase in its long-running crackdown on dissent. The government’s communications regulator slowed down access to Facebook and warned 10 Russian news outlets that their websites could be blocked. The outlets’ declared offense was publishing articles “in which the operation that is being carried out is called an attack, an invasion or a declaration of war.”

Even as a vicious battle for Kyiv unfolded on Saturday morning, a Russian Defense Ministry statement about the situation in Ukraine made no mention of the Ukrainian capital or any Russian casualties. The ministry, which typically releases sleek and copious footage daily of the Russian military in action, published no videos of its combat operations in Ukraine.

And Russia’s state-run news channel on Saturday showed footage of a peaceful day in Kyiv to try to counter the videos of violence spreading on the social network Telegram.

“As you can see, the situation in the cities is calm,” the anchor said. “No explosions, no bombings, unlike what some of the Telegram channels are writing.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/russian-economy-ukraine-war.html

Russians have been extremely sensitive about military casualties over the last decade. They have hidden the dead and maimed by having conscripts be discharged from active service and being treated as "volunteers" while sending Wagner "mercenaries" abroad instead of official Russian soldiers. The reason for this is to make sure they don't have to acknowledge the human cost of Putin's foreign policy choices. No President is going to present at their closed casket funeral that's for damn sure.

It's going to be a lot harder to deny the Russian airplanes and helicopters being shot down over Ukraine, Tank crews burning alive in their metal coffins or the soldiers dying face down in the dirt. Over what? The actual gains that Russia stands to make from this is essentially nothing, but it's paid in both Ukrainian and Russian blood.

 

[Andy_Ross]

There was an interview with a military analyst on the BBC who said that the Russians were being restrained! He pointed out that the Russians had experience from Syria and elsewhere of urban warfare and could be very aggressive.

They did nothing on the ground in Syria, they flew a few air strikes and showed off how decrepit their aircraft carrier is.

 

[Aridas]

The fact that there's still footage coming out of Ukraine of the president talking big tells you how sideways the Russian "plan" has gone. That's a huge morale freebie that Russia handed to Ukraine by not successfully going after comms and power on Day 0.

FTFY. With that said, from here, it's honestly hard to say whether going after those things was part of the plan and they failed miserably or if Putin and co were so disconnected from reality that they thought that there was no need and wanted to preserve public opinion and minimize reconstruction costs.

wish France would help Ukraine. Macron has spent the last four years trying to appease Putin.

France to offer €300M worth of aid, military equipment to Ukraine
France will also freeze Russian officials' assets, according to local media reports

 

[Wudang]

Ukraine has set up a hotline for Russian mothers to phone to find if their sons have ben killed or captured and spreading this on social media. Compassionate and very clever.

 

[Andy_Ross]

One powerful weapon that the Ukrainians have not received from the West so far is combat aircraft, like the F-35 for example.

Providing those, together with proper training for Ukrainian pilots, could perhaps make a big difference, by allowing Ukraine to achieve air superiority.

Well, the Ukraine wouldn't have any pilots or infrastructure or logistics for it and the USA isn't going tp put an F-35 in a position where one could be brought down and captured by the Russians.
How long do you think it takes to train a pilot to fly and fight and F-35?

 

[timhau]

Ukraine has set up a hotline for Russian mothers to phone to find if their sons have ben killed or captured and spreading this on social media. Compassionate and very clever.

This is a strike of genius.

 

[Oystein]

Russia may very well be winning this war, but so far I'm not seeing it. Also, I think if Russia had the upper hand on social media r/publicfreakout and other sources would be showing that.

Ok, this seems to be saying that Russia may not have the upper hand on social media. Doesn't mean they also don't have the upper hand on the battlefield.

US troops have been ambushed by insurgents tracking their movements via their activity app uploads. I don't think you can reasonably *stop* troops from taking cell phones into combat and fooling around with them.

Well, okay, reasonable.
What about internet access?

Have you seen any of that message being spammed around?

No. Again, I don't typically do such sites, sorry. Luckily, I am not in a position where I have the burden of evidence.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I think Taiwan is a completely different scenario, with not a lot in common with what's going on in Ukraine. About the only transferable lesson is probably "don't send in your paratroops too early, before your regular forces can quickly reinforce them."

Which is a pretty obvious lesson that everyone should have learned already just by thinking about it for two seconds.

After Crete and Arnhem it should be a lesson well learned. Although the Germans did get away with it on Crete but their airborne forces never recovered.

Another lesson that should have been learned is from the Ardennes Offensive where the Germans made gains early on but their lack of reserves and logistics made sure it all fizzled out after a few days.

 

[Jimbo07]

An unnamed NATO official on CNN is saying the Russians lack diesel, are behind schedule, and may have a morale problem.

ETA: If it ultimately turns out that Putin has goofed, it's awful to think of the death and destruction in the wake of his folly.

 

[timhau]

And would a leader who's in touch with reality have ordered an attack in the manner of Russia's?

Well, no, but maybe all the disconnect Putin needed for that was believing in the strong military image Russia has been trying to project. And I bet he has plenty of folks working under him who had a stake in making him believe that image.

 

[Oystein]

Did you see my earlier link said soldiers were told to turn their phones off because they'd been trying to pick up Ukrainian girls on Tinder and the soldiers' pics were giving away their locations and other sensitive information?

Ah yes, I saw that, but had forgotten about it when I earlier addressed theprestige

I am generally amazed how people in lands with low GDP, imperfect infrastructure and collapsing society manage to stay online. Same effect with the refuge crisis in 2015: They came with very little, but a modern phone and all the access they needed, and always a power socket to use.

 

[Andy_Ross]

No President is going to present at their closed casket funeral that's for damn sure.

There is a reason for the Russian mobile crematoria.