The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[dudalb]

I have always though that Putin was a dangerous yet rational man.

But seeing him on tv lately, he does seem deranged, ranting about the Ukrainian authorities being drug addicted nazis.

IThat is pretty much what that leaked US Intelligence psychological anlysis of PUtin said:
Basically he has become an irrational,paranoid megalomanic obsssed with insuring his place in history by restoring the Soviet Union.

 

[Galaxie]

Allied force numbers were huge and swamped the country, after 6 years of fighting the German population had no will left to fight.

Russia barely has enough troops to hold down a portion of Ukraine.

I get that, but I took the question as "can civilians with small arms help hold off the Russian advance?". I would say the answer is pretty much no, but they can be very useful later during an enemy occupation.

 

[dudalb]

Nato just put it's emergecny repsonse force on alert.
US has now deployed Troops to all 3 of the Baltic states.

 

[dudalb]

The daughter of Putin's Kremlin spokesman posted an antiwar message on her website. It has been taken down, but still interesting.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I get that, but I took the question as "can civilians with small arms help hold off the Russian advance?". I would say the answer is pretty much no, but they can be very useful later during an enemy occupation.

It's not a question of holding off the advance, it's a question of disrupting the Russian forces.
If they are constantly on edge expecting surprise attacks behind the lines in areas they have already overrun it will sap their morale and tie down forces that could be on the front.
After the country is overrun it will further tie down Russian forces and inflict casualties on the occupying force.
It works very well as history has shown repeatedly.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Why has Steve Doocy, co-host of Fox and Friends at least twice in as many days, talked about the idea of Russian special forces combing the streets of Kyiv to hunt down and execute or place on trial, President Zelenskyy?
He sounds almost gleeful at the idea.

 

[theprestige]

I get that, but I took the question as "can civilians with small arms help hold off the Russian advance?". I would say the answer is pretty much no, but they can be very useful later during an enemy occupation.

I would say the answer is pretty much yes, civilians with small arms can help hold off the Russian advance. Or any advance. Doesn't mean they'll always be able to help in any effective way. And I think that usually it's not such a great idea to seek that kind of help. But anything that adds friction to a military advance helps the defenders.

And the weaker the invading force, the more a civilian resistance helps slow their advance and blunt their attacks. By all accounts the Russians are low on manpower for this kind of operation. And also low on morale, and low on reliability and availability of equipment. These are pretty much "ideal" conditions for a civilian insurgency to make a real difference during the initial invasion phase.

The Battle of Mogadishu is an excellent example of how even a superlatively-equipped regular force with extremely high morale can be absolutely shut down by ragtag civilians flailing around with AKs and RPGs.

 

[theprestige]

Nato just put it's emergecny repsonse force on alert.

Haha the lag! NATO's ping rate must be so low right now. It'll probably be another week before they notice that Ukraine has already been invaded.

 

[crescent]

If they are constantly on edge expecting surprise attacks behind the lines in areas they have already overrun it will sap their morale and tie down forces that could be on the front.

....and the Russian forces were told that they were going in to stop a genocide. Strongly united civilian resistance may cause them to question that. "if we're supposed to be saving them, why are they trying so hard to kill us?" As in, just like Vietnam, Afghanistan (Russian version), Iraq, Afghanistan (U.S. version). They become less supportive of the mission as they realize how unwelcome they are.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Zelensky posted a video with top aides and Prime Minister from outside the Parliament in Kyiv.

“We are all here, our soldiers are here, we are defending our independence”

There’s something like a non-trivial to very good likelihood Zelensky will not survive, but what an example he is setting for how a leader should behave.

Video in link.
https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1497257946602000388

 

[Hercules56]

Zelensky posted a video with top aides and Prime Minister from outside the Parliament in Kyiv.

“We are all here, our soldiers are here, we are defending our independence”

There’s something like a non-trivial to very good likelihood Zelensky will not survive, but what an example he is setting for how a leader should behave.

Video in link.
https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1497257946602000388

Zelensky, is a ******* hero!!!!

However I think Ukraine needs a living leader, not a dead one or one in a Gulag. I admire his balls but I really think he should flee west or even to Poland.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I'm a little surprised about the way the Russian military is executing it's plan.
This isn't Crimea in 2014, they seem to be underestimating what is needed. Or, they don't have the capability to ramp it up any further.

 

[crescent]

Lots images now of Chechen troops gearing up to go to Ukraine. There has been imagery also of other Chechen troops that are already there.

This is bad. These are the bruisers that Russia uses to fight dirty.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I'm a little surprised about the way the Russian military is executing it's plan.
This isn't Crimea in 2014, they seem to be underestimating what is needed. Or, they don't have the capability to ramp it up any further.

I think it's the highlighted.

Their military is poorly equipped and has low morale. Yea, they're able to push the Ukrainians back because the Ukrainian military is even worse, but I imagine if they did move into a NATO country, the Russian military would be pretty much wiped out the minute NATO fought back.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I wonder, is the story about the Russian Navy attacking a Romanian ship with missiles true? I've found a lot of stuff about it but I can't work out if it's definitely something that happened.

If if is, how is NATO not responding to this? That's a blatant attack on NATO.

 

[Ryokan]

I wonder, is the story about the Russian Navy attacking a Romanian ship with missiles true? I've found a lot of stuff about it but I can't work out if it's definitely something that happened.

If if is, how is NATO not responding to this? That's a blatant attack on NATO.

It was a Moldovan ship. Moldova is not a NATO member.

 

[theprestige]

The question would be whether NATO would fight back, and whether NATO would fight back promptly and decisively. A quick gain of territory, followed promptly by a ceasefire and detente along the de facto new border might be seen as a satisfactory and achievable objective. Look at how enraged and yet how impotent the pro-Palestinian community is about Israeli settlements in "occupied territory". Russia shaving off a bit of Poland, to link up with Kaliningrad, and then just refusing to give it back seems like it's a scenario worth considering. How hard is NATO really prepared to fight, unless all of Western Europe is actually on the line? That's the question.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

I think it's the highlighted.

Their military is poorly equipped and has low morale. Yea, they're able to push the Ukrainians back because the Ukrainian military is even worse, but I imagine if they did move into a NATO country, the Russian military would be pretty much wiped out the minute NATO fought back.

Oh I have no doubt of that.

But as others have said, I think Putin is losing his grip on sanity and unlike the former communist party or the NATO systems I'm not sure if there is anyone able to stop him when he decides that if he won't win, then no-one will win.

Soldiers are all nice and well, but I remember seeing the old warsaw pact plans for my country. 5 overlapping circles ensuring the only survivors would be on the fringes and islands in the North Sea. No heroic resistance. No brave last stands. Just 5 points of light as an afterthought.
Knowing Russia would have burned as well did not give the comfort some might think it does.

 

[Ziggurat]

Lots images now of Chechen troops gearing up to go to Ukraine. There has been imagery also of other Chechen troops that are already there.

This is bad. These are the bruisers that Russia uses to fight dirty.

I don't buy it. That's not a mobilization, that's a parade. You don't collect people on foot in one place, away from all their vehicles and gear, in order to get them ready to go somewhere in vehicles with their gear. There's no indication of when it was taken. I think that's probably recycled footage from something else.

Not saying they aren't mobilizing Chechen troops, I wouldn't know, just that I doubt that video clip is what it purports to be.

 

[lobosrul5]

I don't buy it. That's not a mobilization, that's a parade. You don't collect people on foot in one place, away from all their vehicles and gear, in order to get them ready to go somewhere in vehicles with their gear. There's no indication of when it was taken. I think that's probably recycled footage from something else.

Not saying they aren't mobilizing Chechen troops, I wouldn't know, just that I doubt that video clip is what it purports to be.

Same thoughts, and I was wondering if anyone can identify where that video was taken. Unless it near the Ukranian border then its just a parade/propaganda etc.