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Cont: The Biden Presidency Part II

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bruto said:
I think you're right, but it will be seen otherwise by those determined to sandbag Biden, just as the rise in gasoline prices has been.
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What can you say? If one side's argument is a non-falsifiable that they can simply project words and feelings that will induce behavior in world leaders, I'm not really sure what to engage them with.
 
dudalb said:
Russia just invaded the Ukraine.
This is a make or break moment for Biden, frankly.
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Not going to argue with you there. With that said, I think that it's worthy of some small note that Trump and Carlson are pretty openly supporting Putin's assault on Ukraine, and they hardly seem to be alone in doing so.

To poke at a couple more things of some note - Here's a White House summary of a meeting with a Ukrainian minister on the 22nd.

Today, President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. met with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba of Ukraine to reaffirm the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. President Biden updated Foreign Minister Kuleba on the United States’ response to Russia’s decision to recognize the purported “independence” of the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine, including the Executive Order issued last night and new sanctions announced today. He also affirmed that the United States would continue providing security assistance and macroeconomic support to Ukraine. President Biden reiterated the readiness of the United States, in close cooperation with our Allies and partners, to respond swiftly and decisively to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.
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Also of some note, at the moment, here's a White House statement that was just issued.

The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces. President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.

I will be monitoring the situation from the White House this evening and will continue to get regular updates from my national security team. Tomorrow, I will meet with my G7 counterparts in the morning and then speak to the American people to announce the further consequences the United States and our Allies and partners will impose on Russia for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security. We will also coordinate with our NATO Allies to ensure a strong, united response that deters any aggression against the Alliance. Tonight, Jill and I are praying for the brave and proud people of Ukraine.
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So... tomorrow might be rather eventful.
 
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bruto said:
I think you're right, but it will be seen otherwise by those determined to sandbag Biden, just as the rise in gasoline prices has been.
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I don't think it'll just be cynically used to sandbag Biden. There's a significant portion of this country, including many liberals, who seem to believe that the US should be quite hawkish in such situations*.

In a strange twist of fate, the dominant Trump/Carlson wing of the Republicans are now perfectly happy with the Russian invasion, where in the recent past you'd expect conservatives to be howling from the rooftops to send in the troops to start a shooting war with Russia.

But there's still plenty of war-hawk liberals, especially in the natsec and pundit classes.

The Russian invasion is disaster for the Ukrainians that the world is going to see play out on TV and the internet in real time, but I also fail to see how the US could have prevented this short of committing to a shooting war with Russia, which has rightly been rejected as a stupid idea.

*terms and conditions apply. Concerns for human rights, war crimes, or aggressive conquest do not apply to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or any other important US "ally".
 
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dudalb said:
This is a maki or break moment for Biden.
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What exactly do you think can be done?

ETA: Politically it's a nightmare for this to happen during Biden's presidency, but that seems more like bad luck than anything.
 
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It's not bad luck. This was planned during the Trump administration, I'm sure. There is a reason Trumpsters and Fox News are rooting for Putin.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
School me on this then.

What exactly should have been done?
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We shouldn't have elected a doddering old fool who has lost much of what little mental capacity he once had. Too late now, though.

Don't kid yourself. Putin thinks Biden is weak. And he's right.
 
dudalb said:
This is a maki or break moment for Biden.
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Honestly I think the make or break moment happened in 2015 or so, when Obama repudiated the original agreement to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression. Today's events are a logical extension of policy decisions made then.

I think if NATO had mobilized then, and signaled a willingness to stand alongside Ukraine if asked, and made it clear that further Russian aggression would sooner or later butt up against a rubicon of NATO "peacekeepers"... Peace would probably have been kept.

I think Crimea and the eastern enclaves would still have been lost at that time, unless NATO had been really truly ready to get into a shooting war. But mobilizing then, and keeping NATO troops forward deployed in Poland, and actively working on a joint defense plan in case of further aggression, would probably have deterred the further aggression we're seeing today.

Right now I'm kicking myself for not asking this question earlier: Why has all the rhetoric been so one-sided? Why does Putin get to threaten nuclear retaliation and everyone poops their pants and backs down? Sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. Why can't NATO threaten nuclear retaliation and Putin backs down?

Even if NATO didn't want to commit ground troops*, there's still a lot else they can offer. Intel, recon, cyberwarfare, air defense, interdiction bombing... Just intercepting Russian aircraft, and bombing their supply depots and rallying points would take a ton of pressure off the Ukrainian army.

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*And it's totally understandable that they wouldn't want to commit ground troops. Joint military ground operations with a foreign nation that shares no equipment or standards or common training and exercises with you is a recipe for disaster.
 
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Ziggurat said:
We shouldn't have elected a doddering old fool who has lost much of what little mental capacity he once had. Too late now, though.

Don't kid yourself. Putin thinks Biden is weak. And he's right.
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And Putin ass-kisser Trump would have done what, exactly?

Please be specific.
 
Ziggurat said:
We shouldn't have elected a doddering old fool who has lost much of what little mental capacity he once had. Too late now, though.

Don't kid yourself. Putin thinks Biden is weak. And he's right.
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These weak/strong arguments are non falsifiable.
 
johnny karate said:
And Putin ass-kisser Trump would have done what, exactly?

Please be specific.
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Trump already was opposing Nord Stream II. Biden lifted those sanctions. Trump also kept oil prices down. They've gone way up under Biden.

Trump talked nice about Putin, but his actual actions were not supportive at all. Biden has been far more pro-Russian where it actually matters, regardless of what he says.
 
Ziggurat said:
Trump already was opposing Nord Stream II. Biden lifted those sanctions. Trump also kept oil prices down. They've gone way up under Biden.

Trump talked nice about Putin, but his actual actions were not supportive at all. Biden has been far more pro-Russian where it actually matters, regardless of what he says.
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Yeah, sure. That's why Putin tried to get Trump elected twice. Because Trump has been so unsupportive of Putin.
 
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johnny karate said:
If Putin viewed Trump as such a threat, why did he twice interfere in U.S. elections to try to get him elected?
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I don't think he thought Trump would get elected. I think he thought Hillary was inevitable, but he might be able to weaken her. And it's to his advantage to weaken any US president, whoever they are. But mostly, he probably just wanted to cause trouble. Which he did.
 
theprestige said:
It's no accident that Putin waited til Trump was out of office to make this move.
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I agree there.
With Trump in power Putin's wet dream of NATO falling apart was happening, so an action like this would have countered that.

With Biden in power that had stopped.
 
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