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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part V

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Fair enough, but you will be questioned upon it when you return. Kindly don't forget, or evade the questioning.


Although we've just witnessed the bizarre spectacle of Vixen expending way more time and energy playing forward-defensive* to requests to provide her source
than it would have taken her to actually provide her source (something that obviously could have been done in a matter of seconds).

Like you, I smell a rat.


* English cricket term :D
 
I do have the source but it'll have to wait until I am feeling better.


Hmmm. I do hope that (as has happened before) this doesn't equate to "it'll have to wait until I can google any old crap that I think might pass muster if I'm very lucky and if my interlocutors aren't sufficiently switched on to see what I've done".........
 
Although we've just witnessed the bizarre spectacle of Vixen expending way more time and energy playing forward-defensive* to requests to provide her source
than it would have taken her to actually provide her source (something that obviously could have been done in a matter of seconds).

Like you, I smell a rat.


* English cricket term :D


Well, great minds, etc..... :D :

Pending actual production of said reports here, and considering your posting history here, I am quite confident in stating that, no, you do not in fact have the lab reports as you claim. In the amount of time you have spent complaining about how onerous it would be to reproduce them here you could easily have reproduced them here.
 
Any provision of a contract that entails accepting greater risk in order to maintain production parameters obviously equates to endangering life. If the maintenance of schedule is paramount and enshrined in contractual obligation, such a contract could be considered unconscionable.

However, there is considerable informal pressure to maintain production parameters, and this is evident in the shipping industry. In his book Normal Accidents, Charles Perrow points out that there have been several significant advances in technology designed to improve the safety of shipping. However the accident rate has remained flat; it has not decreased. He finds that this is because shipping companies use the additional safety margins to increase production. This understanding has had profound effects in the engineering industry, where we discover that there is a normalization of risk that can lead to complacency.

It's plausible to believe that the captain of MS Estonia felt pressure to maintain his schedule. But to say that he was contractually obligated to do so smells very fishy.


And if Estline was indeed putting either implicit or explicit pressure on the captain (and crew) to adhere rigidly to operating schedules regardless of negative externalities, then 1) I would fully expect the JAIC investigation to have uncovered this and listed it as a salient factor within the report, and 2) there would have been legal/civil ramifications for Estline as a result.

In the aircraft industry, it took a very long time to convince airlines and flight crews to abandon the twin evils of "get-home-itis" and rigid adherence to company logistics and efficiency goals. As so often, it took calamitous outcomes to act as a driver of change. Perhaps the most vivid (and certainly the most disastrous) example was the Tenerife double-747 accident in (IIRC) 1977, when a confluence of factors led to such long delays that the Dutch KLM captain realised that he and his crew would surpass the then legal limit on continuous hours of work - this would have meant that the aircraft (and all its passengers) would have had to sit parked up at the gate until KLM could fly in another flight crew. That would have resulted in very unhappy passengers, expenses associated with putting up the passengers in a hotel and flying in the new crew, and disrupting KLM's aircraft logistics (again IIRC, that aircraft had been due to depart Amsterdam for New York first thing the following morning, and KLM would have had to find a replacement 747 if the intended aircraft was stranded in Tenerife until the following morning. And all of that would have reflected badly upon the flight crew aboard the Tenerife aircraft.

So the KLM captain (who was also a somewhat arrogant and entitled "star" in the airline - another salient factor) was hugely impatient to get in the air and get back home before they ran out of hours. There's no doubt that this played a major role in the ensuing disaster: the KLM 747 started its take-off roll down a fog-bound runway, without proper ATC clearance, and it slammed into a PanAm 747 that had been taxiing in the opposite direction half way down the runway.

As a consequence of this hideous disaster (which remains the single worst loss of life from an air accident in history) and several other fatal crashes (including at least three where captains were so dead-set on touching down at their intended destination that they took disastrous risks in order to (try to) do so, instead of diverting to an alternate), the airline industry gradually realised - and had it forced upon them in several FAA rulings - that safety is always the number one concern; that captains should be expected to use their experience and discretion to judge even the slightest risk to safety and modify flight plans accordingly; and that airlines should allow for such actions without repercussions, and they should budget accordingly as well.


I now return you to your regular programming.
 
What I'm saying that already on the day of accident there was a TV interview of Sillaste telling that the water got in through the bow. A fact that you should have known after following the case closely for over 20 years.

And Lehtola did not conclude on day one that that Estonia was sunk because of failure of the front gate.

Prove me wrong.

Show me where Lehtola said that on Day One. In those words, I mean, or at least in words that a person who is not predisposed on seeing hidden conspiracy theories in everything they see will understand with that meaning.
And I mean a statement made by Lehtola, not by someone else, and on Day One, not later.

You can't do that.

Because the commission said that definitely only after the robot camera had taken pictures that showed that the visor was missing and the gate was partly open.

You will concede that Carl Bildt did urge within hours of the accident that all bow visors of all ferries should be inspected...?


And did not Lehtola take up the same theme?


It is utter nonsense to deduct from Sillaste and Kadak's interviews that the bow visor fell off. All they claimed to see was water on the car deck. And we have to ask ourselves why Sillaste and Kadak were so eagerly pushed in front of the TV cameras.


Whilst Sillaste saw what he saw on the Deck 0 monitor, all he saw was water coming in at the sides. How can this guy all of 160cm be the expert opinion on why a 15,500-tonne ship sank? It is all complete and utter nonsense.
 
Fair enough, but you will be questioned upon it when you return. Kindly don't forget, or evade the questioning.



Any provision of a contract that entails accepting greater risk in order to maintain production parameters obviously equates to endangering life. If the maintenance of schedule is paramount and enshrined in contractual obligation, such a contract could be considered unconscionable.

However, there is considerable informal pressure to maintain production parameters, and this is evident in the shipping industry. In his book Normal Accidents, Charles Perrow points out that there have been several significant advances in technology designed to improve the safety of shipping. However the accident rate has remained flat; it has not decreased. He finds that this is because shipping companies use the additional safety margins to increase production. This understanding has had profound effects in the engineering industry, where we discover that there is a normalization of risk that can lead to complacency.

It's plausible to believe that the captain of MS Estonia felt pressure to maintain his schedule. But to say that he was contractually obligated to do so smells very fishy.



If the shipping company owns or operates the docking facilities, it literally doesn't matter when the ship arrives.

I can't find the reference at the moment but Andresson was under contract with his employers Estline to ensure punctuality.
 
Yes, such as in the case of the Lusitania, who had to carefully time her arrival and thus made it easy for Schwieger to predict her position.

I am impressed. The Lusitania as an example of why Captains are not under any contract to arrive on time! I defer to your mastership of the debate-killing argument.
 
Yes, the hardcopy lab reports are all there in Sven Anér's book.

Which you say is unavailable. And once again we find that you do not have a primary source, but rather that you are mining unreliable secondary sources and trying to conceal them.

Where may I get the original lab reports, untouched by conspiracy authors?
 
And if Estline was indeed putting either implicit or explicit pressure on the captain (and crew) to adhere rigidly to operating schedules regardless of negative externalities, then 1) I would fully expect the JAIC investigation to have uncovered this and listed it as a salient factor within the report, and 2) there would have been legal/civil ramifications for Estline as a result.

In the aircraft industry, it took a very long time to convince airlines and flight crews to abandon the twin evils of "get-home-itis" and rigid adherence to company logistics and efficiency goals. As so often, it took calamitous outcomes to act as a driver of change. Perhaps the most vivid (and certainly the most disastrous) example was the Tenerife double-747 accident in (IIRC) 1977, when a confluence of factors led to such long delays that the Dutch KLM captain realised that he and his crew would surpass the then legal limit on continuous hours of work - this would have meant that the aircraft (and all its passengers) would have had to sit parked up at the gate until KLM could fly in another flight crew. That would have resulted in very unhappy passengers, expenses associated with putting up the passengers in a hotel and flying in the new crew, and disrupting KLM's aircraft logistics (again IIRC, that aircraft had been due to depart Amsterdam for New York first thing the following morning, and KLM would have had to find a replacement 747 if the intended aircraft was stranded in Tenerife until the following morning. And all of that would have reflected badly upon the flight crew aboard the Tenerife aircraft.

So the KLM captain (who was also a somewhat arrogant and entitled "star" in the airline - another salient factor) was hugely impatient to get in the air and get back home before they ran out of hours. There's no doubt that this played a major role in the ensuing disaster: the KLM 747 started its take-off roll down a fog-bound runway, without proper ATC clearance, and it slammed into a PanAm 747 that had been taxiing in the opposite direction half way down the runway.

As a consequence of this hideous disaster (which remains the single worst loss of life from an air accident in history) and several other fatal crashes (including at least three where captains were so dead-set on touching down at their intended destination that they took disastrous risks in order to (try to) do so, instead of diverting to an alternate), the airline industry gradually realised - and had it forced upon them in several FAA rulings - that safety is always the number one concern; that captains should be expected to use their experience and discretion to judge even the slightest risk to safety and modify flight plans accordingly; and that airlines should allow for such actions without repercussions, and they should budget accordingly as well.


I now return you to your regular programming.


KLM was a dreadful airline. You had to race to the check-in desk as it was invariably overbooked. The return flight would always be several hours later than the time stated, because at that stage you were a 'captive audience' so it didn't have to make any effort. Like Ryan Air, and in fact a direct analogy to The Herald of Free Enterprise, the main thing was a speedy turnover. The Herald of Free Enterprise was carrying a large excess of passengers, many of whom had purchased the SUN newspaper 'special offer' of a £1 ticket. Hence, passengers were simply crammed in and the ship zoomed away from the dock even as the bow doors were still being closed. In fact, they were not even considered particularly important having travelled in an open state on previous occasions; it was on the day of the disaster that the lesson came to be learnt in the harshest way possible.

The Estonia was not of the same ilk as The herald of Free Enterprise' passengers purchased a cabin for a start. There wasn't any excess of passengers calling for a fast turnaround: get one load off, get the next load on.

IN addition, Captain Andresson was a disciplinarian, the crew would not have got away with 'not my job' or sleeping in their cabin instead of shutting the bow doors.

Estonia was fitted with a sensor, which meant a light came on once the Atlantic bolt was secured on the bow visor, so those on the bridge could see it was locked. Likewise, there was a roving cctv camera that could also be seen on the bridge.
 
I am impressed. The Lusitania as an example of why Captains are not under any contract to arrive on time! I defer to your mastership of the debate-killing argument.

The Lusitania was constrained by nature. It could pass a certain point on its voyage only at high tide, making the time of its passage highly predictable. That's simply a well-known fact among those of us who actually study shipping and shipwrecks.

MS Estonia was under no such obligation. It could have -- and should have -- slowed to better handle the inclement weather. The notion that its captain was under an obligation to arrive on time despite prevailing conditions is nonsense.
 
It looks unabridged to me.

How does something "look" unabridged? That's a determination one can make only if one has the original sources.

You misled the forum into thinking you had copies of the original lab reports. You tried to conceal their true source, which was a conspiracy theory book. You know your critics will not consider your sources reliable, and you try therefore to hide them. How is that honest scholarship?

Do you have a copy of the original lab reports that doesn't come to you through a secondary source?
 
Which you say is unavailable. And once again we find that you do not have a primary source, but rather that you are mining unreliable secondary sources and trying to conceal them.

Where may I get the original lab reports, untouched by conspiracy authors?

Surely a person such as yourself has access to a library from which you can order practically any publication in the world...?
 
How does something "look" unabridged? That's a determination one can make only if one has the original sources.

You misled the forum into thinking you had copies of the original lab reports. You tried to conceal their true source, which was a conspiracy theory book. You know your critics will not consider your sources reliable, and you try therefore to hide them. How is that honest scholarship?

Do you have a copy of the original lab reports that doesn't come to you through a secondary source?

They look like the original lab reports to me: lots of technical stuff a layman wouldn't understand. For example, X-Ray diffraction diagrams.
 
The Lusitania was constrained by nature. It could pass a certain point on its voyage only at high tide, making the time of its passage highly predictable. That's simply a well-known fact among those of us who actually study shipping and shipwrecks.

MS Estonia was under no such obligation. It could have -- and should have -- slowed to better handle the inclement weather. The notion that its captain was under an obligation to arrive on time despite prevailing conditions is nonsense.

The Third Reich nazis deliberately and wickedly targetted the Lusitania. Even had she been half an hour late, the U-Boat would still have been skulking in waiting.

The Estonia was hardly in that type of danger. In fact, one could say that her demise at Swedish midnight and at the halfway point of her journey was all carefully planned.
 
The Third Reich nazis deliberately and wickedly targetted the Lusitania. Even had she been half an hour late, the U-Boat would still have been skulking in waiting.

The Estonia was hardly in that type of danger. In fact, one could say that her demise at Swedish midnight and at the halfway point of her journey was all carefully planned.

Wut???
Are you even remotely serious?!
 
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