Putin: Will He or Won't He?

[crescent]

I don't pretend to know if Russia will actually do anything, but the rhetoric is still intensifying.

The Russian Defense Minister is claiming that American mercenaries are going to use chemical weapons in Donbass:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1473252813773975554

This is an interesting tweet thread on the subject:

In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low.

Allow me to explain why

75% of Russia’s total battalion tactical groups have been moved. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers, armored excavators, engineering equipment, refueling, huge amount of logistics, etc.

This is a massive mobilization and a clear preparation for an extensive invasion, not a bluff. You also can’t keep all this equipment, troops and logistics there forever.
@RALee85
thinks they would have to pull back by summer at the latest

There is also talk of reducing the U.S. to radioactive ash, that coming from pro-Russian TV talking heads, at least not directly from the government. This repeats a meme they broke out in 2014.

Like I said, I don't have any magic predictive ability, the but situation still appears to be escalating. It is very clear that Ukrainian sovereignty and the will of the Ukrainian people are utterly meaningless to Russia.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I don't think Putin can step away from his bellicose rhetoric and do nothing. There needs to be bloodshed, so he can declare a victory.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

I don't think Putin can step away from his bellicose rhetoric and do nothing. There needs to be bloodshed, so he can declare a victory.

Of course he can. He can do a Ramses II and claim victory in Russia.
All independent press is long gone, all opposition has been silenced and access to outside sources can be blocked.

 

[Garrison]

So in another step to discourage any of those nasty foreign journalists working in Russia they've come up with this gem:

Russia orders health and drug checks for foreigners

And we aren't talking simple checks for COVID:

Under the law, signed during the summer by President Vladimir Putin, foreigners staying for over three months have to be fingerprinted with immediate notice. But from 1 March they must also be checked for HIV and Aids, tuberculosis, leprosy and syphilis, as well as the "presence or absence" of use of narcotic or psychotropic drugs and new potentially dangerous psychoactive substances.

Concerns have also been raised about the relatively poor state of Russia's health service as well as fears over lax data protection. The medical checks are expected to include blood tests, X-rays and even CT scans, and foreign workers will have to take the tests at the Sakharovo migration centre 80km (50 miles) outside Moscow.

 

[The Atheist]

A German bloke, who just happened to be head of Germany's navy, made some comments about Vlad which have not gone down well.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...-resigns-after-controversial-ukraine-comments

The ironic part is, he's probably right. (I'd go with certainly right on Crimea)

 

[Hercules56]

Allowing Putin to keep ruling tells us that the Russian govt. has ZERO faith or hope in their own people. They feel without Putin, their society and economy will collapse. He is the only person in Russia who can do a decent job running the country.

And that's really sad for them.

 

[The Atheist]

Allowing Putin to keep ruling tells us that the Russian govt. has ZERO faith or hope in their own people. They feel without Putin, their society and economy will collapse. He is the only person in Russia who can do a decent job running the country.

And that's really sad for them.

Umm, not really accurate.

The government, if it's actually deserving of the term, is a bunch of Putin sychophants. What they think of the Russian people isn't an issue - what Vlad tells them to do is.
_________________________

I hope some others are getting some decent LOLs out of the Ukraine situation. NATO is rattling more sabres than Vlad right now, as Xi watches from the sidelines, bubbling with suppressed giggles.

Anyway, amid all the dick-waving, troop buildups and everything else, the situation is finally under control.

Jacinda has told Vlad to knock it off, so expect a reversal of troops movements any second now...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/po...scalculation-as-troops-mass-at-ukraine-border

Why doesn't anyone play Risk these days?

 

[dudalb]

Allowing Putin to keep ruling tells us that the Russian govt. has ZERO faith or hope in their own people. They feel without Putin, their society and economy will collapse. He is the only person in Russia who can do a decent job running the country.

And that's really sad for them.

ANd that is becoming debatable.
Poor Russia; Such a great tradition in literature and music, but when it comes to their politics.....

 

[dudalb]

Umm, not really accurate.

The government, if it's actually deserving of the term, is a bunch of Putin sychophants. What they think of the Russian people isn't an issue - what Vlad tells them to do is.
_________________________

I hope some others are getting some decent LOLs out of the Ukraine situation. NATO is rattling more sabres than Vlad right now, as Xi watches from the sidelines, bubbling with suppressed giggles.

Anyway, amid all the dick-waving, troop buildups and everything else, the situation is finally under control.

Jacinda has told Vlad to knock it off, so expect a reversal of troops movements any second now...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/po...scalculation-as-troops-mass-at-ukraine-border

Why doesn't anyone play Risk these days?

Because "Diplomacy" is a lot more fun.

 

[Hercules56]

ANd that is becoming debatable.
Poor Russia; Such a great tradition in literature and music, but when it comes to their politics.....

When it comes to politics, its either Putin or annihilation?

Thats how they seem to be thinking.

 

[Venom]

Putin has been in office for practically the entire lives of the younger generations. Maybe the old guard who are mostly comfortable with the relative stability the Putin regime brought after the madness of the post-collapse 90s need to die out.

 

[dudalb]

When it comes to politics, its either Putin or annihilation?

Thats how they seem to be thinking.

WHich is very dangerous. Germany though the same way about Hitler.
Real issue is that Russia whole economy iis beginning to unravel, and Putin will resort to anything to distract people from this little fact.
As has been pointed out, the only difference between Russia and other countries with a third world exonomy is Russia has nukes.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Putin is handing his country to China on a silver platter, just because he hates HRC and Obama.

 

[theprestige]

Putin is handing his country to China on a silver platter, just because he hates HRC and Obama.

How do you figure?

ETA: I mean, this is clearly shorthand for some more in-depth analysis. I'd be interested in the details.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

How do you figure?

ETA: I mean, this is clearly shorthand for some more in-depth analysis. I'd be interested in the details.

China is investing more in the Russian Far East than anyone else, including Russia. The economy there is pretty much just exports of materials to China. Whereas China is building infrastructure and boosting its population in its northeast, the Russian Far East is still in decline, and infrastructure projects only focus on making it easier to sell raw materials to China.

Just as in Africa, China is using Russia to fuel it's growth, but gives little back, and builds only the infrastructure necessary to accelerate the draining of resources.

What is obvious is that in economic matters, Russia has let its East become but a client State to China.

 

[llwyd]

Well, Finland is quietly reacting, or actually pretty bluntly for those abroad who will know about these things. There are continuously interesting manouvers going on here: a navy missile ship was firing live missiles outside Helsinki, which is quite rare, navy ships around Hanko and one has been visiting Åland, as we are entitled to despite of the demilitarization treaty. Pori Brigade and Santahamina Regiment are constantly practicing around Helsinki, some specialist reserves have been called in. But again, quite low key as far as media reports are concerned. This is not sabre rattling but quietly raising preparedness.

I have to say though, I find no sense in this Russian aggression - they really don't have much to win in a big escalation. And this administration has done about zilch to renew the economy and develop high-tech industries and seriously invest into the basic infrastructure whether physical or such things as education etc. The things any serious nationalist would do in order to make their country stronger among the great powers. Instead they steal from the people like mad and let corruption and inefficiency flourish. Weird.

 

[timhau]

I have to say though, I find no sense in this Russian aggression - they really don't have much to win in a big escalation. And this administration has done about zilch to renew the economy and develop high-tech industries and seriously invest into the basic infrastructure whether physical or such things as education etc. The things any serious nationalist would do in order to make their country stronger among the great powers. Instead they steal from the people like mad and let corruption and inefficiency flourish. Weird.

Yes, if you assume they are driven by some sort of patriotic feelinfs towards Mother Russia. Not weird, if the priority is to stay in a position where you can keep stealing.

 

[llwyd]

Yes, if you assume they are driven by some sort of patriotic feelinfs towards Mother Russia. Not weird, if the priority is to stay in a position where you can keep stealing.

Yeah, it seems that way - but why then do these things? It will not be good for their power if they start actually challenging Nato...

 

[The Atheist]

Well, Finland is quietly reacting, or actually pretty bluntly for those abroad who will know about these things. There are continuously interesting manouvers going on here: a navy missile ship was firing live missiles outside Helsinki, which is quite rare, navy ships around Hanko and one has been visiting Åland, as we are entitled to despite of the demilitarization treaty. Pori Brigade and Santahamina Regiment are constantly practicing around Helsinki, some specialist reserves have been called in. But again, quite low key as far as media reports are concerned. This is not sabre rattling but quietly raising preparedness.

Thanks! Excellent information. How are people in the street feeling?

I have to say though, I find no sense in this Russian aggression - they really don't have much to win in a big escalation.

There is, if you play Risk, which Vlad likes very much, and he's playing a classic Risk game right now. His buildup has resulted in NATO scrambling to move troops and materiel into the arena.

Meanwhile, it's taken the heat right off Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East, where Vlad is dipping his fingers.

I don't believe an invasion of Ukraine was ever the intent - Vlad is by far the smartest leader of any major country right now, and easily the best Risk player. The guy's a former spy and he's got everyone focusing on one thing.

While he's playing a completely different hand elsewhere.

 

[theprestige]

Yeah, it seems that way - but why then do these things? It will not be good for their power if they start actually challenging Nato...

It depends if NATO actually rises to the challenge.

It seems the German high command did not have a high opinion of Hitler's abilities as a statesman, diplomat, and war leader. When he told them they could take Austria and nobody would challenge them, they were dubious. When he told them they could take the Sudetenland, they were receptive. When he told them they could take Poland, and then all of Western Europe, they were enthusiastic.

Those early steps were good for Hitler's power, both at home and abroad. It strengthened his reputation with the generals, and allowed him to make important propaganda gains (and territorial gains) while still buying time to build up his army.

Obviously it was very bad for his power once he took that last step too far. But it remains to be seen how well-calibrated Putin's brinkmanship is. He's got to be asking himself how serious NATO really is, and how scared they really are of the threat of nuclear war.