Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

[LondonJohn]

The 'E' in EPIRB stands for 'Emergency'. That is why the automatic ones are designed to be hydrostatically released in contact with sufficient water so that in a mass hysteria panic it works anyway. That is why the crew would not have needed to worry about minutiae in a crisis.

You don't know what you're talking about.

Emergency flares are also called "emergency flares"..... because they're designed to be used in an emergency. But they require manual activation to work - they don't just fire themselves into the air automatically.

And the EPIRBs on the Estonia likewise required manual activation in order to work. It's pitiful that you still cannot/will not understand this most obvious of facts.

Mariella was also worried about striking her as objects in the sea can cause a lot of damage to one's own vehicle. It is a miracle Mariella and Europa saved as many as they did, each life precious, especially the twelve-year-old boy.

The matter under discussion was not to do with ships striking other ships. It was about ships striking people or life rafts on the surface. Ships of that size striking people or life rafts do not cause any damage whatsoever to the ship itself. Rather, they risk causing significant - fatal - damage to the people they hit.

 

[zooterkin]

You do know the USA has discreet 'listening stations' in the region (SOSUS) which keeps an eye - or should I say ear - on the comings and goings of Russian vessels. Surely it must be known what submarines were in the area that night, identified or unidentified. One of the Stockholm University pictures shows what looks like submarine tracks along the bed and Jutta Rabe saw some, too, on her expedition, so there are submarines coming and going all the time.

So did the JAIC access the SOSUS logs?

You are aware that 'submarine' can be an adjective as well as a noun?

 

[zooterkin]

Between 0100 and 0154 Big Heap Problem.

You can't even get your mildly racist terms correct.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Let's say from the moment the series of bangs were heard and a shudder felt at 0100-ish, through to a weak Mayday at 01:21:55 and the formal mayday put out by Helsinki Radio at 0154, we can safely say that there was zero orderly evacuation of the passengers, zero lifeboats launched, except perhaps one or two by luck, probably landing upside down anyway and there certainly was no effective rescue from outside on the way. As the ship had sunk at 0148, it is accurate to say the telecommunications were completely down between 0101 and 0148 as far as Estonia was concerned. The weather was bad but no more so than normal in late September. With the EPIRB's also quietened, the whole thing is extremely suspicious.

No, let's not say that, because it's ridiculous. First of all, the incompetence aboard the Estonia is not relevant to the time it took other ships to get those ashore to announce a Mayday. Secondly, before the time that Mayday was broadcast there were already multiple ships making their way to rescue the Estonia victims. So much for "no effective rescue" on the way. Thirdly, exactly what point do you imagine you are making about communication being down for the Estonia from the moment it got into trouble until it sank? They didn't try to call for help until they had lost power and only had handheld radios. That's on them. After that, what was "down" and what purpose would further radio messages have served for them? What useful information could they have sent or received?

 

[LondonJohn]

If your TV's failure to switch on could cause a thousand people to drown, there would be a bit more of a fuss about it than shrugging, giving the remote control batteries a bit of a twist and trying again.

When the TV engineer you called says that model doesn't have remote control, and a TV manufacturing industry website says that model doesn't have remote control and people who have years of professional experience in TV installation tell you they clearly remember that model not having remote control and, now you come to think of it, you don't seem to even have a remote control, it might be time to start questioning your assumptions.

You're no 'king scientist.

Hahahaha I missed this earlier! Lovely work, especially for those of us who know how to use apostrophes correctly

 

[Andy_Ross]

No, let's not say that, because it's ridiculous. First of all, the incompetence aboard the Estonia is not relevant to the time it took other ships to get those ashore to announce a Mayday. Secondly, before the time that Mayday was broadcast there were already multiple ships making their way to rescue the Estonia victims. So much for "no effective rescue" on the way. Thirdly, exactly what point do you imagine you are making about communication being down for the Estonia from the moment it got into trouble until it sank? They didn't try to call for help until they had lost power and only had handheld radios. That's on them. After that, what was "down" and what purpose would further radio messages have served for them? What useful information could they have sent or received?

Chapter 7 of the report has a detailed, minute by minute timeline of the entire radio traffic presented as a table. Section 7.3.3

It also has a detailed minute by minute timeline of the rescue initiation presented as a table Section 7.4

and actions of all the vessels and stations involved.

https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html#3

 

[Jack by the hedge]

You are aware that 'submarine' can be an adjective as well as a noun?

A very good point that should not go overlooked.

Vixen, did you suppose a "submarine landslide" meant a landslide which occurs under the sea or a landslide caused by a submarine?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Chapter 7 of the report has a detailed, minute by minute timeline of the entire radio traffic presented as a table. Section 7.3.3

It also has a detailed minute by minute timeline of the rescue initiation presented as a table Section 7.4

and actions of all the vessels and stations involved.

https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html#3

Exactly.

01:32 The MARIELLA turns towards the scene of the accident.
01:33 The Finnjet turns towards the accident site.
01:40 The SILJA EUROPA turns towards the scene.
01:50 The SILJA SYMPHONY turns towards the site.
01:55 The ISABELLA turns towards the site.

02:12 The MARIELLA arrives, as the first vessel, on the scene.

 

[Steve]

A very good point that should not go overlooked.

Vixen, did you suppose a "submarine landslide" meant a landslide which occurs under the sea or a landslide caused by a submarine?

There is a third and more likely possibility. Vixen thought it meant a slide involving hundreds of submarines rolling down an underwater hill.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Exactly.

01:32 The MARIELLA turns towards the scene of the accident.
01:33 The Finnjet turns towards the accident site.
01:40 The SILJA EUROPA turns towards the scene.
01:50 The SILJA SYMPHONY turns towards the site.
01:55 The ISABELLA turns towards the site.

02:12 The MARIELLA arrives, as the first vessel, on the scene.

Under 45 minutes from getting the position to arriving on scene is good going considering the conditions and distance.

 

[LondonJohn]

Under 45 minutes from getting the position to arriving on scene is good going considering the conditions and distance.

Vixen appears to hold the belief that response times for this incident should have been somewhat similar to (say) the time taken for paramedics to respond to a suspected heart attack in a big city such as London: ie that a full-court-press rescue operation should have been able to arrive at the scene of the Estonia sinking within 10-15 minutes or so.......

 

[abaddon]

The 'E' in EPIRB stands for 'Emergency'.

Duh?

That is why the automatic ones are designed to be hydrostatically released in contact with sufficient water so that in a mass hysteria panic it works anyway.

You acknowledge there are versions that do not automatically activate? Progress of a sort.

That is why the crew would not have needed to worry about minutiae in a crisis.

WTF? That is their job And they failed.

Mariella was also worried about striking her as objects in the sea can cause a lot of damage to one's own vehicle..

Nope. Running over people at sea is a real thing. That you don't know about it is irrellevant

It is a miracle Mariella and Europa saved as many as they did, each life precious, especially the twelve-year-old boy.

Appeal to emotion noted, but also irrelevant. The age of the person rescued does not matter.

Do you really think that rescue services would simply chuck them overboard because they were to old to be bothered saving?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Whilst the crew may have had a criminal element I don't think the accident can be pinned on them or the captain if there was a saboteur who was determined the ship would terminate there and then at that spot or thereabouts by hook or by crook, and this included attack from two fronts: the bow and the side, and by blocking communication. Warfare tactics which has the fingerprints of a certain skilled strategist.

I suggest that it does not in fact have the fingerprints of any skilled strategist about it. Heath Robinson or Rube Goldberg perhaps. Insinuations of sabotage vanish like mist when examined, and "warfare tactics" would involve blasting the **** out of it with multiple torpedoes, which very obviously did not happen. It's all very well for you to play armchair admiral but the facts do not support the Alistair MacLean style plot you wish to construct.

 

[SpitfireIX]

I suggest that it does not in fact have the fingerprints of any skilled strategist about it. Heath Robinson or Rube Goldberg perhaps. Insinuations of sabotage vanish like mist when examined, and "warfare tactics" would involve blasting the **** out of it with multiple torpedoes, which very obviously did not happen. It's all very well for you to play armchair admiral but the facts do not support the Alistair MacLean style plot you wish to construct.

Even as far-fetched as some of his later novels were, Alistair MacLean never wrote anything nearly as implausible as any of Vixen's scenarios.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Even as far-fetched as some of his later novels were, Alistair MacLean never wrote anything nearly as implausible as any of Vixen's scenarios.

Maybe, but she has some of the key elements. His stories unfailingly start with some unidentified person sabotaging the radio room.

 

[Vixen]

Timeline from the report, Chapter 7 Section 7.3.3 recorded distress traffic.

01:21.55 from Estonia - Mayday
01:22.14 from Mariella to Estonia
01:23.19 from Silja Europa to Estonia
01:28.52 from Estonia to Silja Europa - Position Fix.
01:29.01 from Silja Europa to Estonia - confirmation on the way.

This was the last radio contact with the ESTONIA.

At least five radio stations, including MRCC Turku, logged the 2nd Mayday call as received at 0124 hrs. Counting backwards in tape recordings from this moment, the most probable time of the 1st Mayday call was just before 0122 hrs. However, this time is uncertain, the margin of error being plus/minus two minutes.

Speed of response

0132 The MARIELLA turns towards the scene of the accident.
0133 The Finnjet turns towards the accident site.
0140 The SILJA EUROPA turns towards the scene.
0150 The SILJA SYMPHONY turns towards the site.
0155 The ISABELLA turns towards the site.
0212 The MARIELLA arrives, as the first vessel, on the scene.

So, from first position fix to arrival on scene was 44 minutes.

In the weather conditions that is as fast as could be expected .

Here to Learn patiently explained a couple of times that it is not enough to send and receive a Mayday. As with an EPIRB emitting a signal to COSPAS-SARSAT, the professional coordinated rescue instruction has to come from an official MRCC centre. Ships making their way to the scene is part of a vessel's responsibility to go to the aid of persons in distress in the sea.

Once again, look at the time line: accident started circa 0101. Mayday received 1:22. MRCC receipted Mariella's call on Estonia's behalf on his own personal mobile phone as the radio was down. MRCC could not get the location. At last Helsinki Radio (the official purveyor of an alert for a military/paramilitary coordinated professional rescue effort, who had to wait the instruction from an MRCC) did not get the instruction from the MRCC until 0148, when it was told to send the officially approved mayday. This it did at 0154. Estonia sank at 0148. Stockholm - the naval rescue centre - was finally contacted circa 0200.

In other words telecommunications were down from 0100 to 0148 and for all your listing the ships converging onto the scene, that does not obviate this salient and easily verifiable fact.

The JAIC did notice this discrepancy but chose to convey it as being the fault of MRCC Turku and Helsinki Radio, for not immediately doing an instruction for professional coordinated rescue (helicopters, coastguards, military and paramilitary trained sea rescuers) and Helsinki Radio for using pan-pan instead of mayday, which made the situation appear as not needing the level of alacrity and sheer scope that was required. But wait! MRCC Turku and MRCC Nauvo were perfectly efficient, as was Helsinki Radio. They acted as they did as telecommunications and radio frequencies were completely down. Pan-pan was a silly mistake but otherwise to claim the thing was to do with how the MRCC handled it all is misguided, without even investigating the communications problems throughout the duration of the disaster.


Clear now?

 

[phiwum]

So "telecommunications are down" just means that no formal Mayday has been issued? It's not about whether other ships can hear and respond to Estonia?

A particularly unsubtle change in your claim.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

 

[Andy_Ross]

Silja Europa was coordinating the rescue effort from the start.

From the report Chapter 7 section 7.4.1

On responding at 0123 hrs to the 1st Mayday call, the Silja Europa became the control station for the distress radio traffic. The other ships and shore-based stations in the area that had received the Mayday calls understood and accepted the resulting situation. When the full importance of the distress messages was understood on board the vessels they began to contact the Silja Europa to verify information received, report their positions and inform her about measures being undertaken.

Time of receipt of distress signals and method of logging by shore stations.

MRSC Turku, 0124 hrs operator radio log and recording
Turku Radio, 0125 hrs operator and radio log
MRCC Turku, 0124 hrs operator and radio log
Utö coastal fortress 0124 hrs operator and radio log
Kökar coast guard station 0124 hrs radio log

From the report section 7.4.2 Action Taken

The headquarters of the Coast Guard Section in Turku served as the MRCC, where at night a duty officer was prepared to initiate and carry out all relevant coast guard management functions. He was supported by two stand-by duty officers at home on one-hour stand-by.
Two minutes after receiving the 2nd Mayday call MRCC Turku began, at 0126 hrs, to alert the various groups involved

Table 7.5 has a timeline of all the important events and their time.

https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html#4

 

[Jack by the hedge]

It's not enough to be rescued. You have to be officially rescued or it doesn't count.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

In other words telecommunications were down from 0100 to 0148 and for all your listing the ships converging onto the scene, that does not obviate this salient and easily verifiable fact.

Just for starters, for the first 22 minutes of your claimed 48 minute window there does not appear to be any evidence that the Estonia attempted any communication. So which "easily verifiable fact" shows "telecommunications were down" from 01:00 to 01:22?