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Putin: Will He or Won't He?

FBI says a Russian Criminal Group is behind the Cyber Attack on the Petroleum Pipeline.
No secret that Putin often uses the Russian Mafia to do his dirty work for him.
 
As far as I'm aware, the good people of Belarus were keen to get rid of the Soviets and embrace democracy.

How quaint that now, instead of being under an iron rule from without, they have a "democratically elected" president who has Vlad's finger so far up his backside he really is just another of Vlad's toys.

Neat way to deflect the buildup of arms and personnel in Ukraine, I imagine, as the EU and Poland try to find a way out of the migrant mess Belarus has dropped on Poland.

Given western Europe's complete reliance on Vlad's natural gas, I expect a "humanitarian" decision to be forthcoming to enable the migrants to go somewhere kinda safe.
 
We'll see.
Lukashenko may threaten to cut off the gas pipe to the EU, but that would cost Russia money.
I doubt he'll be allowed to actually do that.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Anyone taking bets on what percentage of Belarus will be Russian territory by New Year's?
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Ukraine first. He has a useful stooge in Belarus. Troops are being amassed on the Ukraine border, and he's cut them out of gas distribution causing severe gas shortages heading into winter.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59274351

There we go. The dog is not allowed to bite the master's hand.
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The master protects the dog.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-14/belarus-migrant-dead-poland-border-crisis/100618834

"As the EU prepares to impose new sanctions on Minsk, Mr Putin told Russian state television Belarus was not to blame for the crisis."

"Russian President Vladimir Putin says Western countries, rather than Belarus, are ultimately responsible for the migrant crisis on the Poland-Belarus border, pointing to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Meanwhile Polish troops are trying to turn back refugees and Belarus troops are cutting the border wire and providing refugees food and warmth.

How's Poland's relationship with Putin?
 
Remember: Russia has been invaded many times from the West. Therefore, it needs client/vassal states on its border to give it some protection.

Poland, on the other hand, has been invaded many times by,.... Well, by Russia. So this just means that Poland needs to bow down before its overlord.

Ukraine - well, that's not even a real country (according to many a Russian social media troll).

More seriously, The E.U. seems more and more centered around Germany and Poland, instead of Germany and France like it used to be. Poland also seems to be pretty enthusiastic about its participation in NATO, and Russian antagonism towards Poland and Ukraine provides a nice continuation of the justification for NATO's continued existence. Poland will not be back under the Russian thumb anytime soon.

Then again, Putin is showing again that he's a master at destabilizing things in ways that are almost impossible to anticipate. He's an effective opportunist who can move quickly to take advantage of whatever cracks open up when he gives his western borders a good shakeup.

He's the Fidel Castro of the 21st Century, the domestically popular (enough) dictator that keeps poking the west and who will likely remain in power for another few decades.
 
The Atheist said:
And every single time, the west has had its arse well and truly spanked.

I don't think the idea of invasion enters any Russian mind.
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Yet, the idea that Russia needs vassal states on its western borders to buffer it from the west is often cited by Russians and their sycophants as a real thing.

So if we applied the same logic to Poland, then it too would need some vassal states, but on its eastern border to protect it from Russia. Yet, Russia does not see it that way.
 
jond said:
[Putin] cut them out of gas distribution causing severe gas shortages heading into winter.
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This is nonsense. There is way fewer gas floating through the Ukraine pipeline because Hungary struck a spectacular 15 years deal with Gazprom late September. They get their gas now through the recently finished "Turkstream" pipeline that goes through Bulgaria, Serbia to Hungary and then Austria. Funnily enough it misses in the "pipeline network" graphic in the BBC article Lukraak_Sisser linked.

The Ukraine now has the problem that their little scheme doesn't work anymire. They pretended to not buy from the Russian, but from Europe. Which ment that they just took their gas coming from Russia out of the pipeline and then ran some bureaucratic tricks to make it "come from Europe" on paper. The guy who ran that scheme was some crony of Biden, too lazy to look him up now.
 
crescent said:
Yet, the idea that Russia needs vassal states on its western borders to buffer it from the west is often cited by Russians and their sycophants as a real thing.
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As an excuse for empire building.

crescent said:
So if we applied the same logic to Poland, then it too would need some vassal states, but on its eastern border to protect it from Russia. Yet, Russia does not see it that way.
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Spike Milligan nailed the Poles when he wrote his history of WWII "Everyone kicks ze **** out of ze Poles, it's what they're for."
 
crescent said:
Yet, the idea that Russia needs vassal states on its western borders to buffer it from the west is often cited by Russians and their sycophants as a real thing.

So if we applied the same logic to Poland, then it too would need some vassal states, but on its eastern border to protect it from Russia. Yet, Russia does not see it that way.
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Irony is, of course, that if Russia treated the states on it's borders halfway decently,it would be a much better guarantee those states would not allow the west to use them as a military base then all of Putin threats.
And I think the West would like nothing better then to let Russia go it;s own way. it is that Russia seems determined to drage half of Europe along with it which makes the west supicious and hostile.
 
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dudalb said:
it is that Russia seems determined to drage half of Europe along with it which makes the west supicious and hostile.
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I have to be fair and say that being surrounded by a nuclear arsenal for half a century probably helps develop a lasting "us and them" mindset.
 
crescent said:
Yet, the idea that Russia needs vassal states on its western borders to buffer it from the west is often cited by Russians and their sycophants as a real thing.



So if we applied the same logic to Poland, then it too would need some vassal states, but on its eastern border to protect it from Russia. Yet, Russia does not see it that way.
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I read an interview with a Ukrainian who was not a supporter of Russia. He said that practically, any move to make Ukraine a part of NATO was doomed to fail and pointless. He was right.
 
dudalb said:
And I think the West would like nothing better then to let Russia go it;s own way. it is that Russia seems determined to drage half of Europe along with it which makes the west supicious and hostile.
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It is not as if the USA would instigate coups all over Latin America if Russia hadn't made it so suspicious and hostile ...
 
Childlike Empress said:
"Atlantic Council" LOL
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I was interested to see your explanation of why this is all a good thing, and all you can do is dislike the link.

There are lots of others - the facts are true, the source is irrelevant.

So, please do explain why your hero needs is right here.
 
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