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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

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Because of the way the ship listed to starboard so dramatically and so quickly (because of the underlying imperfect beam trim, plus the simple physics related to a very large volume/mass of water on the un-compartmentalised vehicle deck).

It was pointed out in the report how poorly the traditional lifeboats performed and that it is a common failing. They only work well when the ship is on an even keel, the weather is calm and the crew are well trained and proficient in their launching.

There is a reason that modern lifeboats are completely enclosed and on a lot of ships 'freefall' bow first down a ramp.

t0OV7orl.jpg


Links if you want to buy one for your ship.

https://myviking.viking-life.com/en...boats/Free-fall-lifeboats/c/freeFallLifeboats
https://www.palfingermarine.com/en/boats-and-davits/life-and-rescue-boats/free-fall-lifeboats
 
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Not one single instance of passengers calling their loved ones. The series of bangs/collision sensation/violent list at 1:00-ish when most of the passengers were in bed in their cabins, the watch on the bridge was changing, the ship was half way through its journey, was in open sea, international waters. They had zero hope of rescue.


The conspiracy theory now requires the ship to be simultaneously within range of cellphone towers and remote from land.
 
The conspiracy theory now requires the ship to be simultaneously within range of cellphone towers and remote from land.


Indeed.

The thing is, though: when one is beholden to an a priori conclusion (based on a conspiracy theory), when one consequently becomes wedded to looking for ways to support that conclusion (and to ignore or handwave things that contradict the conclusion - AKA confirmation bias), and when one simply doesn't possess the required knowledge , analytical abilities or critical thinking faculties.....

..... literally anything becomes possible (and "true") in that made-up fantasy universe.
 
..... literally anything becomes possible (and "true") in that made-up fantasy universe.
As Vixen herself says, she's not willing to rule out anything (apart from the "official version").

That includes not ruling out rogue KGB agents, a collision with a British submarine of a type not known to the public, minisubs shooting limited range torpedos, minisubs laying mines on the Estonia in the middle of a storm, leftover WW2 mines sinking the Estonia, crew members being disappeared after the sinking on cargo planes operated by the CIA, the bridge possibly being hijacked during or before the sinking, etc.
 
As Vixen herself says, she's not willing to rule out anything (apart from the "official version").

That includes not ruling out rogue KGB agents, a collision with a British submarine of a type not known to the public, minisubs shooting limited range torpedos, minisubs laying mines on the Estonia in the middle of a storm, leftover WW2 mines sinking the Estonia, crew members being disappeared after the sinking on cargo planes operated by the CIA, the bridge possibly being hijacked during or before the sinking, etc.


What about the ekranoplan?
 
They weren't.


That is a lie.

The Rockwater Report clearly states:

Also under the direction of the authorities, divers accessed the Bridge of the vessel and retrieved a number of navigational aids, a man-overboard beacon and the hydrostatic release mechanism for one of the vessel’s EPIRB beacons. The bodies of 3 of the victims of the disaster were found on the Bridge.
Rockwater Survey Report

Accordingly, the items as stated above were collected as can be seen in their video, including a couple of tools: a jemmy-like instrument, an axe-shaped tool, the man-overboard beacon and the hydrostatic release unit.

The Estonia EPIRBs - as confirmed by the JAIC- were Kannad-406 F.

1. KANNAD 406 EPIRBS PRESENTATION
1.1. Type and version
This maintenance procedure concerns KANNAD 406 Epirbs.
There are 3 types:
• The survival type:
• KANNAD 406 S (manual activation),
• KANNAD 406 WS (manual activation and water activation).

• The float free type (automatic activation): • KANNAD 406 F/P: Container made of polyester with an internal membrane (CAL87). • KANNAD 406 FH/PH: Container fitted with a HAMMAR release system (CAL 89).• KANNAD 406 WH: Container fitted with a HAMMAR release system (CAL 89).
Kannad- manual

The diver is instructed by the supervisor 'Kannad-A needed', the HRU activator for automatic epirbs - which he then puts into his net bag for retrieval, as advised in the Rockwater Report.

In addition, the diver is very clearly instructed to locate the logbook and the GPS navigation. So much for the other false claim 'GPS was not available pre-1998'.
 

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Clearly not.

The comparison between Herald of Free Enterprise and Estonia is simply a different perspective on the problem of ship survivability than the one spoon-fed to you by Anders Björkman, and the product of careful consideration and, in many cases, personal experience. It's not a "calculated lie." It's just a considered statement that's different than what you have come to ignorantly believe.

The statements regarding EPIRB are largely correct. Multiple sources confirm that the ship was not equipped with the kind that activated automatically upon immersion, whether or not such equipment existed at the time. On this point we have devolved into your apparent inability to read and understand English. You're being given a well-documented, well-established objection to your ignorant ramblings and stilted attempts to read your beliefs into the source. Calling it a "calculated lie" is disingenuous and disrespectful.

To the point where we are disrupting your self-indulgent fantasies, yes that's what skeptics often do. But you are being disrupted with fact, not with lies. I see we've reached the point of the debate where you have nothing left except groundless accusations and insults for your critics. What do you hope to accomplish with that?

It is a calculated lie, to detract from how rapidly the Estonia sank and trying to present this as perfectly normal.. It is downplaying a serious aspect of the disaster by mischievously comparing it with a boat that partially sank.

As for Anders Björkman, you are the one who is obsessed with him as I have hardly mentioned the guy.
 
What was blocked? the mayday was heard and responded to.



What lifeboats were not activated?

Channel 16 worked, we have the recordings of the maydays, it was working.
How many people had mobile phones in 94?
What evidence is there for it being 'down'? didn't one of the ships use the mobile network?

Rescue ships were on the scene quite rapidly.



Rescue arrived as quickly as it could.
It was dark and a storm. Helicopters for example are pretty useless in the dark in storm conditions, they can't see anyone on the surface, they did most of their work when daylight came.



They failed to operate because they weren't turned on by a member of the crew.
How would they have got rescue ships there any quicker when they responded to the mayday straight away?

They got to where they were found floating because that is where tide, current and wind took them.
How would the Rockwater divers know where they were?

Their position of recovery is in the report.

Not true. The rescue ships did not arrive until the ship had sunk. There was no evacuation there were no lifeboats MRCC Turku/Helsinki Radio did not get through to Sweden until 1:54 (Helsinki Radio pan-pan) or directly until 0202 as per Stockholm's operation log. It is quite disingenuous to claim all was well.

In his police statement Capt. Thornroos plainly states he could get no response from anyone.

I am sure everything swinging into action post-sinking is your idea of all right.
 
1. What do you mean that they "confirmed" it? That means that it was already believed that the EPIRBs were of a particular type and that the divers found evidence that confirmed what was already thought.

2. How did the Rockwater divers "confirm" what kind of EPIRB the Estonia had, if the EPIRBs were missing from the wreck when they dived it?

They recovered the hydrostatic unit (HRU). This is automatically activated when immersed in a sufficient depth of water. You can see them putting it in their net bag.
 
Ummmm, what? Your analysis of the evidence leads you to this conclusion? Really?






And?





Because of the way the ship listed to starboard so dramatically and so quickly (because of the underlying imperfect beam trim, plus the simple physics related to a very large volume/mass of water on the un-compartmentalised vehicle deck).






Still can't figure this one out properly, huh? Maybe read back through this thread, and take on board what plenty of commentators - people who've forgotten more about radio communications that you could ever hope to learn and understand - have told you about this particular matter.






Nope.






By which you mean "EPIRBs being correctly released from their attachment points on the ship and floating free, once the release mechanisms were activated by water pressure as the ship sank".






Yet again, you're demonstrating your gross ignorance on the subject of radio communications. By 1994 a reasonable proportion of passengers aboard the Estonia would have owned/carried a mobile phone (you'll be effusively and jingoistically proud that the Nordic region had one of the highest early uptakes of personal cellphone devices in the World).

But........ the Estonia was some 30NM from both Uto and Hanko in the time period from it first getting into trouble (ie the point where the bow visor's bottom lock failed) and the moment it sank. There was effectively no chance that mobile phones of the time - with much less powerful transceivers than present-day devices, and using the NMT standard - would have been able to connect to any base station (= cell site) on land.

And this (and only this) is the reason why passengers aboard the Estonia were unable to use their cellphones during the disaster that night.

The reason why crew on the Mariella and Europa were able to use their mobiles was that those ships were some 30%-50% closer to relevant land masses and base stations during the relevant time period.






Strangely, I seem to recall that 137 people were rescued and survived.





No. Once again, those EPIRBs were not hydrostatically activated. You've now been told this - with ample reliable supporting evidence - probably a dozen times (or even more).

And as you've also been told plenty of times already now, in the specific instance of the Estonia sinking, the fact that the ship's EPIRBs were not (manually) activated actually made no difference whatsoever to the efficacy of the rescue efforts: the crew were able to transmit ship's true position by voice over regular radio channels well before she sank.

Oh, and your final sentence above is yet another improper attempt to inject some sort of emotional "tug" to your claims. Real researchers/analysts never engage in that sort of stuff.






Well, the JAIC investigation did cover off the failure of the crew to (manually) activate the EPIRBs, so I have no idea what you're talking about. And where the EPIRBs were eventually discovered simply has no bearing whatsoever upon the JAICs conclusions wrt the cause(s) of this disaster.


Vixen: every time a far more well-informed and knowledgeable person that you deals with each and every one of these issues - using a proper understanding of the science, a proper understanding of the evidence, and a proper approach to analysis/inference/conclusion - do you (metaphorically) stick your fingers in your ears? Because IMO there's more-or-less no other way to explain things.

Rationalisation, rationalisation. You do know that there were about 300 people who escaped the ship? Most of them died from hypothermia or drowning, or other serious internal injuries. 137 are just the ones who came out alive, 58 of whom were crew.

You are far from well-informed.
 
... In addition, the diver is very clearly instructed to locate the logbook and the GPS navigation. So much for the other false claim 'GPS was not available pre-1998'.

Oh, for heaven's sake. Are you just having a laugh or are you seriously this bewildered?
 
Reality Check:

Suppose the Estonia managed to give her coordinates to the responding ships on that first MAYDAY exchange, and the crew activated the buoys. How much faster would the rescue group have arrived, and how many more passengers would have been saved?

By the time they make the MAYDAY call it was too late, passengers were largely trapped in their rooms, in hallways, and on staircases throughout the ship due to the list. The only passengers who had a chance were the ones who died from hypothermia. We're not talking about about a lot more people, not that they were not important, but as far as this tangent goes the buoy nonsense and the radio quality is a non-factor in the outcome.

Estonia needed to make that MAYDAY call right after the bow visor came off. Lifeboats and life-rafts could have been loaded and deployed earlier with far more passengers, and there is a good chance the ship stays afloat long enough to get most everyone off. They never inspected the car deck, and they never checked the visor from the forward deck (which would have revealed it was gone). And this is the crux of the disaster, the captain and crew failed in basic seamanship.

As soon as it was submerged in a 40°, which was shortly after 01:00, instead of which the Swedish naval base was alerted a whole one hour later.

Given how fast the ship sank, the circumstances: networks apparently down, Channel 16 weak and interference, Captains of nearby ship having to use NMT mobile phones instead, zero evacuation of the passengers - and this cannot have just been the crew's fault, everybody was taken completely by surprise; you can hear it in the voice of the Europa Captain, 'Estonia, are you calling...Mayday?' - the JAIC should have investigated the possibility of sabotage instead of writing off all of these issues as just one of those things.
 
It is a calculated lie...

Saying so repeatedly won't make it so. But by all means try to resuscitate your credibility by repeatedly calling your critics liars.

...to detract from how rapidly the Estonia sank and trying to present this as perfectly normal.. It is downplaying a serious aspect of the disaster by mischievously comparing it with a boat that partially sank.

It is an objection to your willfully ignorant opinion on a subject you can't demonstrate you know anything about -- how ships sink. No one is "downplaying" the sinking of MS Estonia. But the people who are objecting to your uninformed "because I say so" argument are generally far more informed than you on the subject and have given you well-reasoned, well-documented reasons for their objection. Your unwillingness to address those reasons does not make their authors liars.

As for Anders Björkman, you are the one who is obsessed with him as I have hardly mentioned the guy.

You've hardly mentioned him because you know no one here considers him an authoritative source. But you're still relying on that source to provide you with arguments and "facts." The fact that you learned to hide discredited sources doesn't keep your critics from knowing where you get your wacky claims.
 
In addition, the diver is very clearly instructed to locate the logbook and the GPS navigation. So much for the other false claim 'GPS was not available pre-1998'.

That ships had GPS-based navigation prior to 1998 doesn't establish that GPS-enabled EPIRBs were available prior to 1998. You lack basic reading comprehension and reasoning skills.
 
Rationalisation, rationalisation. You do know that there were about 300 people who escaped the ship? Most of them died from hypothermia or drowning, or other serious internal injuries. 137 are just the ones who came out alive, 58 of whom were crew.



You are far from well-informed.
That's literally what he said. Again, your reading comprehension seems to be broken.
 
The Rockwater Report clearly states:

Rockwater Survey Report

Accordingly, the items as stated above were collected as can be seen in their video, including a couple of tools: a jemmy-like instrument, an axe-shaped tool, the man-overboard beacon and the hydrostatic release unit.

The Estonia EPIRBs - as confirmed by the JAIC- were Kannad-406 F.

Kannad- manual

The diver is instructed by the supervisor 'Kannad-A needed', the HRU activator for automatic epirbs - which he then puts into his net bag for retrieval, as advised in the Rockwater Report.

In addition, the diver is very clearly instructed to locate the logbook and the GPS navigation. So much for the other false claim 'GPS was not available pre-1998'.

Again you are talking about the container and the release mechanism.
Everything in your post relates to the release mechanism and the container, not the buoys

From your own post you again quote from the 2006 manual which is for different units the S and the WS
Everything else is concerning the containers.

KANNAD 406 S (manual activation),
• KANNAD 406 WS (manual activation and water activation).

• The float free type (automatic activation):
• KANNAD 406 F/P: Container made of polyester with an internal membrane (CAL87).
• KANNAD 406 FH/PH: Container fitted with a HAMMAR release system (CAL 89).
• KANNAD 406 WH: Container fitted with a HAMMAR release system (CAL 89).
 
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It is a calculated lie, to detract from how rapidly the Estonia sank and trying to present this as perfectly normal.. It is downplaying a serious aspect of the disaster by mischievously comparing it with a boat that partially sank.

As for Anders Björkman, you are the one who is obsessed with him as I have hardly mentioned the guy.

It did not 'partially' sink, it capsized and sank in just a few minutes.
 
Not true. The rescue ships did not arrive until the ship had sunk. There was no evacuation there were no lifeboats MRCC Turku/Helsinki Radio did not get through to Sweden until 1:54 (Helsinki Radio pan-pan) or directly until 0202 as per Stockholm's operation log. It is quite disingenuous to claim all was well.

In his police statement Capt. Thornroos plainly states he could get no response from anyone.

I am sure everything swinging into action post-sinking is your idea of all right.

The messages were received and acknowledged, the closest ships started towards the Estonia as quickly as they could.

What do you mean there were no lifeboats?
Are you claiming they weren't on the ship?
 
They recovered the hydrostatic unit (HRU). This is automatically activated when immersed in a sufficient depth of water. You can see them putting it in their net bag.

That is just the bracket and container, it is not the buoy. They were recovered from the sea along with other floating debris by fishing boats.
 
In addition, the diver is very clearly instructed to locate the logbook and the GPS navigation. So much for the other false claim 'GPS was not available pre-1998'.

Are you doing this deliberately?

We know GPS was available on ships before 1998.

GPS was not part of EPIRB before 1998.

This has been clearly stated in a number of posts.
 
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