Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

[LondonJohn]

Wrong. It was not a colloquialism it was actually the chorus of a popular song on the folk circuit and we all had to sing along. (Not sure if it was Jeremy Taylor, famous for 'Jobsworth'.)

It's you who's wrong, Vixen. Not for the first time. And not for the first time are you doubling down on ignorant by insisting that it's you who's correct.

Unless you'd like to present us here with the certified lyrics of this (alleged) "popular folk song on the circuit" (which I suspect is a load of old bull as well...).

 

[LondonJohn]

Because they say the ship was listing to starboard and the ship was broadside on to the waves with the starboard side in to the waves.
Windows on the starboard side were the ones that were being hammered by the sea or were submerged while those on the port side were clear of the waves and water.

Yes. As I said before, it's pitiful that it has to be spelled out like this. As the JAIC obviously knew as well. Maybe in Vixen's world the JAIC ought to have explicitly written the ship's name before each and every reference to a part of the ship - after all, there's no way (in Vixen's world) that we should have to infer that they're talking about the Estonia each time.

Pitiful.

 

[Vixen]

Yes it is as the ladders or stairs will be horizontal. you don't have to climb them



All the rafts and boats are at the top of the superstructure. Everyone musters on the boat deck.
Crew accommodation is on the deck just below the boat deck.
Crew are trained in evacuating a ship and putting on suits. It's the first thing you do.
Every boat and raft will have at least one and usually two crew members assigned to it to assists passengers in evacuation or getting in to the boat or raft if they are in the sea.

What point are you making?



Again, what point are you making?

The JAIC's chronology of events is based on the time Treu (or was it Sillaste) claimed he looked in the monitor, to see water coming in at the sides of the car ramp. One person. Nobody saw the car ramp open, although the JAIC has the car ramp open in full, and then shutting whilst it sank. The engineer was in the Engine Room when he was jolted by a series of three bangs. He the glanced into the car deck monitor. Now the bangs were circa 1:00 am EET. He doesn't really say at what point he looked at the monitor. Sillaste claims he was down there fixing a problem with the sewage for a passenger section on Deck 1 - but who the heck fixes a minor issue with the loo at 1:00am in the morning? Kaduk also looked at the monitor. Treu and Kaduk probably met Linde on the stairs as they were going up to the outer deck. They knew the vessel was sinking. That's how they were all on the same boat (out of 300 hundred or so passengers of about 162 died who escaped) and hey ho, they pick up Sillaste later amongst all the chaos at supposedly 1:30-ish.

Look at this diagram of the ship listing at 70° and let me know how you imagine Sillaste got out whilst it was 80°. Did he swim through the stairwells? Perhaps he was equipped with a snorkel, scuba tank and flippers.

Note the ladder shaped bits are the stairs from Deck 6 downwards, now fully submerged.

In addition, the JAIC claims the ship is in a state of stability, even though the centre of gravity is higher than the centre of buoyancy.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

JAIC: After the main engines stopped, the ESTONIA drifted with a list of about 40 degrees and the starboard side towards the waves. Water continued to enter the car deck through the bow but at a significantly lower rate. Waves were pounding against the windows on deck 4. Window panels and aft doors broke, allowing flooding of the accommodation to start.

Vixen: So... why do you think this vague wording implies the windows on the starboard side of deck 4 broke?

 

[JayUtah]

In addition, the JAIC claims the ship is in a state of stability, even though the centre of gravity is higher than the centre of buoyancy.

How do you know those aren't just labels on the vectors? There is a specific way of notating locations of centers of _______ in drawings. What is that notational method, Vixen?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... Sillaste claims he was down there fixing a problem with the sewage for a passenger section on Deck 1 - but who the heck fixes a minor issue with the loo at 1:00am in the morning?

Maybe the person on duty whose job it is to do that. Just a guess.

What would you do if fixing plumbing was your job and you were on duty and there was a problem with a toilet? Tell the passenger to hold it in and sneak off to the bar?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Of course the JAIC lied. Do you really believe Sillaste and Treu escaped the Engine Room (in the port aft hull) at between 1:24 and 1:30 when the list was 80°?

Maybe the JAIC should have forced their witnesses to come up with recollections you would find more believable.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Maybe the person on duty whose job it is to do that. Just a guess.

What would you do if fixing plumbing was your job and you were on duty and there was a problem with a toilet? Tell the passenger to hold it in and sneak off to the bar?

If he was fixing it in the machinery spaces it would probably have been a problem with pumping which would be more than just one toilet.

If you are on watch and the black water system has a problem then it's your job to fix it.

 

[Vixen]

Nope.

1) "Aft" doesn't mean "stern" for exactly the same reason as "forward" doesn't mean "bow". Maybe in your world, if someone says "the forward windows" they mean "the bow windows". But not in the world of seamanship.

2) Had the investigators meant the windows/doors facing rear-ward, they'd have said "the stern windows/doors".

3) In any case, this is entirely moot - have you actually looked yet at a photo/diagram of the stern of the Estonia. I suggest you should.


Finally: do study your diagram again. For comprehension this time.

I did not say 'aft' means stern. Aft simply refers to the posterior end of the ship as opposed to the fore. If the JAIC were referring specifically to the aft starboard windows they would have said so. Instead they just say aft, as do Rockwater. It also refers to the direction.


Just because YOU infer they mean starboard doesn't mean they said it.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

JAIC: the starboard side towards the waves ... Waves were pounding against the windows on deck 4. Window panels and aft doors broke

Just because YOU infer they mean starboard doesn't mean they said it.

Yeah, how did we ever get the idea they meant the starboard side?

 

[Vixen]

JAIC: After the main engines stopped, the ESTONIA drifted with a list of about 40 degrees and the starboard side towards the waves. Water continued to enter the car deck through the bow but at a significantly lower rate. Waves were pounding against the windows on deck 4. Window panels and aft doors broke, allowing flooding of the accommodation to start.

Vixen: So... why do you think this vague wording implies the windows on the starboard side of deck 4 broke?

The waves were pounding on the port side. The wind was southwesterly.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The waves were pounding on the port side. The wind was southwesterly.

We are talking about events during the time the ship was drifting after losing power.

It was listing heavily to starboard. It was drifting with its starboard side towards the incoming waves. Waves were pounding against the windows on deck 4.

That did not happen on the port side.

 

[Vixen]

Maybe the JAIC should have forced their witnesses to come up with recollections you would find more believable.

The star witnesses had to be interviewed seven or eight times or more. These were the third and fourth engineers, Treu and Sillaste AB Seaman Linde- watch, and Kaduk a newbie engineer.

None of these will have had the big picture, which would have been those on the bridge (who have access to the same monitors as those in the engine room).

Some needed translators. Some of the interviewers were police will little training in interviewing accident survivors. They didn't let the survivors read their own statements back for accuracy.

For example, Kaduk was said to have claimed there were waves up to the car roofs. He denied he ever said anything of the sort. Nor could he see the car deck floor from the camera angles. He could see circa 40cms of water in one corner.

Fact is, not one crew saw the car ramp open. So that is a guess.

The crew were also tantamount to initially being under arrest and interrogated by the security police. This would have been intimidating and nobody is going to paint themselves in a bad light.

Treu has since gone missing all together.

Linde got a nine-year sentence for drug smuggling in 1996.

Depending on ordinary working men for the cause of the accident isn't really going to give you the answers is it? They were just one tiny speck on a massive hunk of steel in a vast choppy sea.

 

[Vixen]

We are talking about events during the time the ship was drifting after losing power.

It was listing heavily to starboard. It was drifting with its starboard side towards the incoming waves. Waves were pounding against the windows on deck 4.

That did not happen on the port side.

Really? You believe it was floating in equilibrium at 2 knots, whilst it turned to port and the hull was intact?

Water was obviously ingressing into the ship but there is zero proof it was via the bow through the car ramp. Yet there is a massive breach in the hull on..the starboard side.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I did not say 'aft' means stern. Aft simply refers to the posterior end of the ship as opposed to the fore. If the JAIC were referring specifically to the aft starboard windows they would have said so. Instead they just say aft, as do Rockwater. It also refers to the direction.


Just because YOU infer they mean starboard doesn't mean they said it.

Because the ship was listing to starboard and that is the side of the ship that was taking a pounding from the waves. Those on the port side were shielded from the waves and above the water.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The waves were pounding on the port side. The wind was southwesterly.

No, the waves were on the starboard side. After the power failed the ship turned broadside on to the waves.

A ship not under way and not anchored will always turn broadside on to the waves.

 

[Vixen]

If he was fixing it in the machinery spaces it would probably have been a problem with pumping which would be more than just one toilet.

If you are on watch and the black water system has a problem then it's your job to fix it.

Isn't it more probable that Treu, Sillaste and Kaduk knew there was a problem with water ingressing the hull and, far from fixing toilets, they were operating bilge pumps all systems go...because they were up to their knees in water...in the hull

It is no coincidence these three, together with Linde were survivors, as they knew the ship was sinking from get-go. Treu even managed to take his passport with him.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Isn't it more probable that Treu, Sillaste and Kaduk knew there was a problem with water ingressing the hull and, far from fixing toilets, they were operating bilge pumps all systems go...because they were up to their knees in water...in the hull

It is no coincidence these three, together with Linde were survivors, as they knew the ship was sinking from get-go. Treu even managed to take his passport with him.

Once flooding was in evidence they would have started the pump9ing and stopped whatever other work they were doing.
Once the pumps were running what else would they be able to do?
Once it was obvious the pumps weren't keeping up and the ship was taking on a strong list the machinery spaces would be evacuated by all but the chief and maybe second and even then I wouldn't expect them to stay below until it was too late to evacuate.


As the machinery spaces are not watertight as they need a constant supply of air for the engines, generators and air conditioning plant as well as keeping the machinery spaces at a habitable temperature they would be the first places to start flooding if water was getting in to the car deck etc.

A hole above the waterline in the fore part of the ship would not be causing major flooding in the engineering spaces.

 

[Vixen]

Once flooding was in evidence they would have started the pump9ing and stopped whatever other work they were doing.

As the machinery spaces are not watertight as they need a constant supply of air for the engines, generators and air conditioning plant as well as keeping the machinery spaces at a habitable temperature they would be the first places to start flooding if water was getting in to the car deck etc.

A hole above the waterline in the fore part of the ship would not be causing major flooding in the engineering spaces.

And the difference between a hole 'above the water line' and an open car ramp is...?

Truth is, Sillaste, Treu and Kadak fled the ship the same time as everybody else.

The stuff about escaping at 1:30 is a crock. It is simply needed to have someone 'witness' water coming in through the car ramp after 1:15 the time the JAIC say the bow visor detached all together.

ETA: There were watertight doors in the Engine Control Rooms. You could not remotely close the watertight door from the ECR, it was controlled from the bridge. If a watertight door was opened manually - and this took about fifteen seconds - then it had to be shut manually at the ECR and an alarm would ring when it closed. To reach the ECR Sillaste would have had to go through one or two open watertight doors on deck # 0. They must then have been open or were being opened.

 

[Andy_Ross]

And the difference between a hole 'above the water line' and an open car ramp is...?

A matter of scale. A missing bow pitching in to the sea at 18 knots will scoop water in to the ship.
A hole in the side above the waterline will also take in some water but nowhere near as much.

We have no evidence that the hole was there before the ship sank.

Truth is, Sillaste, Treu and Kadak fled the ship the same time as everybody else.

The stuff about escaping at 1:30 is a crock. It is simply needed to have someone 'witness' water coming in through the car ramp after 1:15 the time the JAIC say the bow visor detached all together.

What is your evidence for this?