Pandemic Panic Must Stop

[marting]

Yes, it is a bit misleading, but not for the reason you think. Comparing current Covid deaths to the 1918-19 flu is misleading because this pandemic isn't over yet.

The Delta 4th wave is declining in the USA. Cases are dropping while deaths, which are delayed a few weeks, are peaking and will start to decline in accord with cases. More rapidly in the Southern states with more unvaxed where it's been collecting them in droves. Still going up in other states more vaxxed where there are fewer easy pickings. Cases and death rates a lot lower in those states and Covid will probably hang around longer there. Probably another 100k deaths before the 4th wave peters out. I expect pockets this winter of the remaining unvaxxed with more suceptable vaxxed mixed in. Depends on rollout of boosters. Maybe another 50k to 100k in the winter then endemic with well under 100k/year for a few years. Everyone will be exposed. Those that are vaxxed (with boosters too) or previously recovered will be mostly protected.

There were four successive waves of the 'Spanish' flu, covering the period from 1918 to 1920. It was over relatively quickly due to the high infection rate and lack of vaccines, at greater cost in lives. But we are only just getting into the fourth wave of Covid, with no guarantee that it will be the last. We can't get a final death tally until it's over - which could be a year or more from now.

We aren't "just getting started with Delta. It's been on the decline in cases for a week now.

The Delta variant was initially met with skepticism by many, but proved to be much more virulent and have a more deadly effect on young people.

Yeah. I don't understand how Delta wasn't obviously going to a big deal. This was obvious back in May when I posted that things were going to be grim in a few months because of the very high transmissibility of Delta. But yeah, it wasn't really seen as a threat back then.

Back to the present. Deaths are still concentrated in the older demos. Hospitalizations have increased a lot among the young but not deaths relative to other age groups. This is to be expected since the old are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the young. So it's going after easy pickings. Hospitalized people < 20 y/o die at 1/10th the rate of hospitalized people over 50.

Many countries who thought they had been through the worst got unexpectedly hammered by Delta because their containment strategies (that seemed to work before) were not good enough. Some early vaccinations are not as effective on Delta so we are getting 'breakthrough' cases, which may increase as immunities wane.

Yep, that's right.

But that is not the worst scenario by far. At least one other variant has surfaced, and the longer Covid circulates the more likely an even more virulent variant will pop up.

Lots of variants have occurred since Delta. None have been able to out compete with it. And I remember looking at the week/week increase in Delta genomic prevalence unlike anything I saw before or after.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet. Until she does we shouldn't be comparing deaths and declaring Coivd-19 a 'nothing-burger' compared to the 1918-19 flu.

Nothingburger? Who says that. Were it not for the advances in the last Century Covid-19 would likely kill a higher percentage than the 1918 Flu. As it is it's pretty damned serious.

Frankly, there is nothing wrong with headlines talking about Covid-19 deaths eclipsing the 2018-19 flu, or even other events with major fatalities. "apples and grapefruits" you say, but that's not the point. What is important is that we have something causing deaths on a similar scale to another notable event, which does make it a big deal even if the scenarios are not exactly equivalent.

They aren't similar. But the reasons are because we aren't living in the tech. 100 years ago without vaccines or antibiotics. Because of that not near as bad.

What would be 'misleading as hell' is headlines asserting that the risk is low, that taking 'extreme' measures would hurt the economy more than it helped, that people are dying of the flu all the time so why treat it any different, that it only kills old people so don't worry, that we can beat it with with less pain by just protecting old people and letting everyone else get it, or that it will all go away as soon as the election is over - you know, stuff we were being told that was misleading as hell.

Not a fan of the Great Barrington Declaration.

But if you acknowledge all that and are just worried about people overreacting then don't - the majority are still not taking this virus seriously!

The majority got vaccinated. There are significant numbers that think it's fake or just like the flu or some weird govt. effort to create compliant sheep. Can't fix stupid.

 

[The Atheist]

Neither is worrying you might die because hospitals are too full to accept you:

Interesting question as to which causes more deaths - hospitals full of Covid stopping people getting care, or the cases delayed because people are scared to go there for treatment &/or tests?

I have a suspicion the latter will be the larger group, because hospitals are only full of Covid patients for a fairly short time.

 

[The Atheist]

Classic example of politicians and media panicking the public:

Even at 80 per cent coverage of over 5s, and assuming only baseline public health measures and limited test-trace-isolate-quarantine, the modelling carried a median estimate of 1.1 million infections, around 60,000 hospitalisations and nearly 7000 deaths – all within a period of just a year.

Utter baloney.

That's more deaths per year than any country of similar population, and that's while they had zero percent vaccinated.

Pure scare tactics not based on any kind of reality.

 

[The Atheist]

Fancy that - Rodney Jones calls the 7000 dead "utterly unconvincing".

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/po...h-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test

 

[Solitaire]

The Delta 4th wave is declining in the USA. Cases are dropping while deaths,
which are delayed a few weeks, are peaking and will start to decline in accord
with cases.

I'm seeing that as well in the data. The downward trend in new infections moves
a little bit faster than I expected. In the model I'm using the virus runs out of room
after December - in other words the number of vaccinations plus infections exceeds
the total population. Obviously the fix requires bringing in more variation in immunity
and changes in infection modality through variants.

Daily Cases

Based upon this graph, I count five waves of covid - four alphas and one delta.
The minor fourth alpha wave overlaps with the major third alpha wave but
mathematically appears as a distinct wave around March first.


Covid Projection

Interestingly, the AI models predicting the future of covid in the United States
show a new variant, probably not from the delta branch, infecting vaccinated
and unvaccinated people alike this December. I was expecting three smaller
events over the next year, but I guess they've got better information than I do.

Not a fan of the Great Barrington Declaration.

Not a fan of it either.

Guess who was ahead of the curve on that one?

 

[Delvo]

This was a weird thread to skim through a few pages of a while back. The person claiming everybody else is "panicking" was the only one pretending the vaccines don't work, while the allegedly "panicking" people were admitting they do.

But I didn't post just for that. I'm posting because of what DeSantis said while talking about his latest round of doing everything he can come up with to try to spread the virus around as much as possible and get as many people killed as possible. It was something about not letting "fear" rule us. The idea that wanting to work against a plague instead of striving to maximize it must be all about "fear" reminded me of not only this thread, but also the fact that psychologists have found that a lot of what separates the political right and left is that it's all about fear in general for righties... from practically anything, all around, all the time. That makes this appear to be a simple case of projection; when one feeling/idea so consistently dominates how one looks at everything in life, one often can't really imagine anybody else not also being just as dominated by that same feeling/idea.

It's like when religionists claim that atheists must be worshiping something/someone even if it's not God, and famous atheists with much of an audience on the subject of theism & atheism must be, if not our gods, then at least prophets to us. An outlook so fundamentally different as to just not have such things at all, instead of merely the same things pointing in a slightly different direction, is just beyond the imagination.

 

[The Atheist]

This was a weird thread to skim through a few pages of a while back. The person claiming everybody else is "panicking" was the only one pretending the vaccines don't work, while the allegedly "panicking" people were admitting they do.

Someone said the vaccines don't work? Where was that?

I also don't recall anyone saying "everybody else is panicking".

I'm quite sure some people are, and gave some specific examples of panic-buying and other things that look very much like panic.

You're not yet another poster making **** up are you?

-off topic political statement omitted-

Please answer the questions I've put and leave the proselytising elsewhere.

 

[marting]

Newsweek aspires to the US's version of the Daily Fail with a cover titled "The Doomsday Variant" Good grief.

As a close tracker of variants and having posted in May that Delta was going to be pretty bad R.1 and last week's Mu just aren't up to snuff. No indication they can hold a candle to Delta. Eric Topol is tired of the crap too.

New variants that out compete Delta may well come along. There's new ones all the time. But media should stop crying wolf all the time or fewer will respond if a more serious variant does show up.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1441529382745481219

Eric Topol:

R.1 is the latest Scariant

Newsweek is the Scariant specialist
Now @sfchronicle is following suit.

@macroliter sets it straight

 

[The Atheist]

"The Doomsday Variant"

Nailed.

 

[The Atheist]

For all those demonstrably panicking about children and Covid, some facts to digest.

Alongside the knowledge that children are very rarely severely impacted by Covid, they're not spreading it around each other much:

The study found the primary spread of Covid-19 was within households, was primarily driven by unvaccinated adults, and that the actual transmission between children in education settings was very low.

And yes, that is entirely the delta variant, with information gained from the highly-detailed NSW outbreak: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...e-learning-about-delta-outbreaks-and-children

 

[dudalb]

And now we know why the James Bond movie No Time To Die got a 18 month delay because of the COvid virus (in fact it was the first major film to announce it was being put on the shelf due to Covid):

The big McGuffin in the film is a supervirus biotech weapon that uses Nano tech to spread...

It was set to open in March of 2020:talk about bad timing.

 

[The Atheist]

Not panicking, just freaking out:

University of Auckland epidemiologist Rod Jackson says there is "no chance" of Auckland loosening restrictions tomorrow.

"I'm freaking out in a major way."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...pert-freaking-out/TFLIG7BP4XII2S2GRLEB4YDF3I/

 

[The Atheist]

More totally not panicking.

A person is alleged to have travelled from Waikato to Northland (~250km), where he/she attended a party, which defendants for a court case who were due to appear today also attended.

Not a positive case, not even a contact of a positive case, just some person from Waikato - current case total 31, in an area the size of Vermont, with about half the population - who was at the same location as people due to appear in court, so the court is closed in case.

Absolutely no panic in that response.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ourt-sitting-delayed-due-to-coronavirus-scare

 

[Suddenly]

Pandemic panic panicking must stop.

That article says the court delayed opening until noon, and that

Stuff understands there are fears someone from Waikato travelled to Dannevirke and attended a party many people due to appear in the Dannevirke District Court on Friday were at.

They "understand?" So printing a rumor. There was no official sources in that article as they all didn't comment. Just some site "understanding."

This does not support the conclusion that this person did not have a more direct connection to covid.

So stop panicking.

 

[smartcooky]

And in a great example of people NOT panicking, but making commonsense decisions, major New Zealand commercial law firm Russell McVeagh is shutting its doors on unvaccinated clients, visitors and staff.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/12...or-to-unvaccinated-staff-clients-and-visitors

"Russell McVeagh​ says it will ban anyone entering its offices who has not had both Covid-19 vaccination jabs, from November 1.

That includes clients, staff and other visitors.

“From November 1, only those people who have received both doses of the Covid-19 vaccine will be able to come into our offices,” chief executive Jo Avenell​ said.

“If someone has not had both doses of the vaccine, we ask that they support our policy by communicating with us away from the offices."​

Bloody good on them. All businesses should follow this lead.

The unvaccinated are allowed to claim their right to be selfish douchebags, we just need claim our right to be safe from them, and we can do that by making sure that if they choose to remain unvaccinated, their day to day life very will be difficult and inconvenient... no shopping, no restaurants or pubs, no sports or entertainment events, no personal access to services such as legal or financial.

 

[mgidm86]

I mentioned in another thread that I was in a hospital waiting room two days ago and a big dum dum had no mask while talking to the receptionists for ten minutes. I'm like WTF is going on?

Finally he says, "Oh I'm not vaccinated it's a personal choice" and then is told to put his mask back up from around his chin. I was about to explode.

In a ******* hospital. These people are so full of themselves. Big dumb looking SOB, Trump supporter all the way.

And it still took that long for someone to tell him to mask up. No excuse, there is a security guard at a desk 50 feet away but out of view.

The woman at the taqueria I go to has no problem telling full grown men to wear a damn mask, which is one reason I still go there. She's awesome. The people in the hospital? Wow.

I'd like a little more panic and a lot less of these jerkoffs.

 

[Greebo]

Be warned, rant to follow.

Currently I am on day 3 of 10 talking to my wife through a closed door - she tested positive on Sunday. I am in UK so their guidance (ha ha) is being stuck with. We estimate the delay between contact and the positive test was 5 days.

In theory, youngest daughter and I can go around doing whatever we want. My youngest works for the NHS and they don't want her back in work until my wife's isolation is complete due to the risk from the house. She should be going to the theatre and for a meal on Saturday - this would be acceptable under guidelines. We are however keeping a low profile for the 5 days after the positive test and the theatre trip will be cancelled.

My eldest daughter lives abroad and came to the UK on Sunday to sort out details for her wedding next year and was planning to stay with us. Being responsible parents, we booked a hotel for in our town. She is relying on favours from friends in getting her and fiance to the relevant places.

This is the first time in 35 years of marriage, that I haven't been able to be with my wife when she was ill - even just sitting on the bed next to her - that hurts so much.

The reason for this rant is the attitude of the person who we are convinced is the source of the infection. My wife works at a pre-school (kindergarten) and the only other worker that has tested positive (doesn't wear a mask anymore as they "don't have too") came into work in the middle of a pandemic when she wasn't feeling well at all and had the previous two days off sick. The reason they gave for not testing herself was "we work with children, they don't get it".





Sent from my SHT-W09 using Tapatalk

 

[angrysoba]

Be warned, rant to follow.

Currently I am on day 3 of 10 talking to my wife through a closed door - she tested positive on Sunday. I am in UK so their guidance (ha ha) is being stuck with. We estimate the delay between contact and the positive test was 5 days.

In theory, youngest daughter and I can go around doing whatever we want. My youngest works for the NHS and they don't want her back in work until my wife's isolation is complete due to the risk from the house. She should be going to the theatre and for a meal on Saturday - this would be acceptable under guidelines. We are however keeping a low profile for the 5 days after the positive test and the theatre trip will be cancelled.

My eldest daughter lives abroad and came to the UK on Sunday to sort out details for her wedding next year and was planning to stay with us. Being responsible parents, we booked a hotel for in our town. She is relying on favours from friends in getting her and fiance to the relevant places.

This is the first time in 35 years of marriage, that I haven't been able to be with my wife when she was ill - even just sitting on the bed next to her - that hurts so much.

The reason for this rant is the attitude of the person who we are convinced is the source of the infection. My wife works at a pre-school (kindergarten) and the only other worker that has tested positive (doesn't wear a mask anymore as they "don't have too") came into work in the middle of a pandemic when she wasn't feeling well at all and had the previous two days off sick. The reason they gave for not testing herself was "we work with children, they don't get it".





Sent from my SHT-W09 using Tapatalk

Oh Jesus! Sorry to hear that.

Oh, you live in Wiltshire. I think I saw something about Covid running wild in schools in Wiltshire right now. Is that right?

 

[theprestige]

Weird that the guidelines have you talking to your wife through the bedroom door, but don't have sick schoolteachers being tested before returning to work.

 

[Greebo]

Weird that the guidelines have you talking to your wife through the bedroom door, but don't have sick schoolteachers being tested before returning to work.

It is only suggested / advised that you test yourself if you feel unwell for early years education. Nothing mandated.

Sent from my SHT-W09 using Tapatalk