The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[JayUtah]

However, earlier in the week, the Estonian Safety Investigation Center (hereinafter OJK) Underwater at the wreck of Tuukritööde OÜ ferry Estonia in the period 14.-15.07.2021 robotic research to control sonar images and objects, makes a daring claim that the 'triangular deformations' seen on the car ramp appear to match the [shape] of the forepeak of the bow visor...

Questions:

If you want OJK to reconcile their claims with other evidence, you'll have to ask them. I have no idea what caused the deformations in the car ramp, and no information that would lead me to conclude anything regarding OJK's claims.

 

[Vixen]

Is it your claim that all the pilots and hospital staff lied?
To what purpose would they all do that?

What does the mistakes in the initial lists have to do with the survivors talking to the rescue teams or hospital staff?

Exactly. Why would the helicopter pilots jot down names in a log book of people who were not there. Old Buggins jotting down the names and birthdates of the survivors as they come on deck/board hardly has a motive to embellish a few names and even if he did know the names of the chief engineer, chief medical doctor and Captain Piht, where the heck would he have got the birth date from and how would he know the nickname of a random Estonian entertainer?

It might have helped if the JAIC could have explained how the mistake occurred but it never did.

 

[Vixen]

What are you suggesting, is the conspiracy widening yet again? Yes, I can believe a commercial sea captain who likely was never involved in anything like the rescue of passengers off a capsized ferry in the middle of the night (and into the morning) not knowing exactly how many people his crew picked up. He may have had more pressing concerns than keeping a head count. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but its the duty of any sea vessel to render aid to stricken ships, but it is not something they practice much if it all.

It has actually been the law for a very long time that all ships must keep a record of all passengers.

 

[Vixen]

It does seem like the conspiracy is widening, all the hospital staff and rescue workers are involved now.

The rescue helicopters faithfully recorded the information they were given. Why wouldn't they? Why were these names all removed later, with not a word of explanation, not even to the national press who had reported them alive in the first place?

 

[Vixen]

Thank you. The slides are apparently intended to support a verbal report. Do you have a recording of that report?

It's this press conference here:

 

[lobosrul5]

It has actually been the law for a very long time that all ships must keep a record of all passengers.

On the passenger manifest, yes. I believe a record must keep of name, birthdate, nationality, and position (if a part of the crew). That is not applicable to keeping a record of exactly who is coming aboard during a rescue operation. And, looking up that ship, they not only took people directly in out of the water, they also received helicopter rescues. People were also disembarked via helicopter. Can you not see how the captain may not have known exactly how many people were rescued. This was a developing and chaotic situation.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Exactly. Why would the helicopter pilots jot down names in a log book of people who were not there. Old Buggins jotting down the names and birthdates of the survivors as they come on deck/board hardly has a motive to embellish a few names and even if he did know the names of the chief engineer, chief medical doctor and Captain Piht, where the heck would he have got the birth date from and how would he know the nickname of a random Estonian entertainer?

It might have helped if the JAIC could have explained how the mistake occurred but it never did.

So the rescue teams and hospital staff are part of the conspiracy?

All of them? some of them?

 

[Andy_Ross]

It has actually been the law for a very long time that all ships must keep a record of all passengers.

Shipwreck survivors rescued from the sea are not registered passengers.

Are you claiming that in addition to the rescue teams and hospital staff the crew of the ship that assisted are also part of the conspiracy?

Who else is involved?

 

[JayUtah]

It's this press conference here:

Thanks -- and I see that it was linked at the bottom of the page you already cited, so I should have seen that for myself. Note how after her presentation, Prof. Westermann is being pumped to support the cause. Are these the people you're really holding up as the paragon of scientific virtue? This is clearly a group with an agenda.

Regarding contact deformations, here comments are clearly limited to the two small samples she took. She is not claiming the entire structure -- or even a significant portion of it -- is free of evidence of contact deformation.

Again, she has a theory that a high-energy impact caused the discontinuity she observes in one of her three samples, and tries to characterize as explosively welded. And again, that's defensible only if you assume that impact created the ridge effect. If it was an impact, it had to be high energy. If it wasn't...

The "temperature and time" argument is entirely inconsistent with head loading as the result of a detonation -- either heat conducted into the material from the explosive of self-heating due to plastic deformation. Her point is that the metal here underwent a slow heat loading profile. Explosions and self-heating from plastic deformation have notoriously high thermal ramp rates.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The rescue helicopters faithfully recorded the information they were given. Why wouldn't they? Why were these names all removed later, with not a word of explanation, not even to the national press who had reported them alive in the first place?

Because in the confusion some mistakes were made?
Are you now saying the helicopter crews weren't part of the conspiracy?

 

[The Man]

See here.

• controlled explosion
• high impact - high energy - high temperature
• large deformation - bending - metal twisted 180°.

What you post; “controlled explosion”

What it says; “Similar structures are seen in controlled explosion welding, but at a much smaller scale.”

What you post; “high impact-high energy”

What it says; “High energy impact”

Big waves and massive stuff knocking about can do that.

What you post; “- high temperature”

What it says; “Locally very high temperature”

So local heat like simple welding, conversely shock heating would tend to be more distributive as is the, well, shock wave progression.

What you post; “large deformation - bending - metal twisted 180°”.

What it says; “Large Deformations”
“180° Bend”

In the image it appears simply folded over not “twisted”.


Again big waves and massive stuff knocking about can do that particularly the water. Get tons of it slamming into stuff or tons of stuff slamming into it and it distributes loading quite effectively to have deformation without contact marks. Basically a cubic meter of water is a ton or 1,016 kg of water (for those metrically or massively inclined).

 

[Kid Eager]

What you post; “controlled explosion”

What it says; “Similar structures are seen in controlled explosion welding, but at a much smaller scale.”

What you post; “high impact-high energy”

What it says; “High energy impact”

Big waves and massive stuff knocking about can do that.

What you post; “- high temperature”

What it says; “Locally very high temperature”

So local heat like simple welding, conversely shock heating would tend to be more distributive as is the, well, shock wave progression.

What you post; “large deformation - bending - metal twisted 180°”.

What it says; “Large Deformations”
“180° Bend”

In the image it appears simply folded over not “twisted”.


Again big waves and massive stuff knocking about can do that particularly the water. Get tons of it slamming into stuff or tons of stuff slamming into it and it distributes loading quite effectively to have defamation without contact marks. Basically a cubic meter of water is a ton or 1,016 kg of water (for those metrically or massively inclined).

And you're surprised by this evidence of quote deformation?

 

[The Man]

And you're surprised by this evidence of quote deformation?

Actually what I first typed (and you quoted) at the end was "defamation". Color me unsurprised by either.

 

[junkshop]

I was curious why the various slides that Vixen showed us were inconsistently formatted, so I followed the provided link.

The images Vixen shared in post #3128 are from a PDF described as "Professor Ida Westermanns (sic) paper on findings". It consists, in it's entirety, of the same images Vixen posted.

Nothing more.

That is it.

Two pages; 10 images and 529 words (including all titles and annotations).

That, according to Fokus Estonia, is a 'paper'.

It was not included in the press conference.

The slides with the 'NTNU' branding ( posts #3129, #3130 and #3131) accompanied Associate Professor Westermann's presentation.

The remaining slides (posts #3133 & #3135) accompanied Lars Angstrom's portion of the presentation.




I watched the whole damn video. All 46 minutes and 34 seconds of it.
I don't know what I did to hurt me, but must really hate myself.

 

[ferd burfle]

Well it's not like heating it with flame, external to internal. It's more like microwave heating, where the internal molecular motions generate the heat.

This link will help, under Shock Heating.

Science Explosives

As the shock wave passes it flexes the object. Some of the energy that goes into the deformation is given back as the elastic deformation returns to normal. However, not all of the energy is rereleased in the relaxation of the object. The difference in energy absorbed from the shock wave and energy released in the relaxation after it passes is retained in the object by heating it. Basically by friction of the various planes of the crystalline structure shifting one way or other and then back.

This could be misleading in that it specifically calls out elastic deformation but only alludes to plastic deformation. Self-heating occurs in plastic deformation of metals as well.

Ah, very good, the effect of internal friction never would have ocurred to me. Thanks to both of you!

 

[JayUtah]

Ah, very good, the effect of internal friction never would have ocurred to me. Thanks to both of you!

Try it. Unwind a paper clip and bend it back and forth. It will fatigue and break, and it will be noticeably warm.

 

[whoanellie]

Try it. Unwind a paper clip and bend it back and forth. It will fatigue and break, and it will be noticeably warm.

I've burnt myself on nails I've bent back and forth to break them.

 

[gabeygoat]

I was curious why the various slides that Vixen showed us were inconsistently formatted, so I followed the provided link.

The images Vixen shared in post #3128 are from a PDF described as "Professor Ida Westermanns (sic) paper on findings". It consists, in it's entirety, of the same images Vixen posted.

Nothing more.

That is it.

Two pages; 10 images and 529 words (including all titles and annotations).

That, according to Fokus Estonia, is a 'paper'.

It was not included in the press conference.

The slides with the 'NTNU' branding ( posts #3129, #3130 and #3131) accompanied Associate Professor Westermann's presentation.

The remaining slides (posts #3133 & #3135) accompanied Lars Angstrom's portion of the presentation.




I watched the whole damn video. All 46 minutes and 34 seconds of it.
I don't know what I did to hurt me, but must really hate myself.

Aw, good work!

 

[Here_to_learn]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but its the duty of any sea vessel to render aid to stricken ships, but it is not something they practice much if it all.

There are mass rescue exercises run now and then, but they are not run during a winter storm. In most cases, the exercises are about getting a lot of people either directly off a ferry, or pick them up from liferafts.

There may be a few simulated PIWs (Person in water), either persons dressed up in full survival gear, or it's just some kind of doll.

But as you say, those exercises are not common. More common are exercises for a single MOB (Man over board), and the transfer between ships of a single person.

There is a difference between a small rescue operation (where you know the exact number or people to rescue, and you look for each of them), and a mass rescue where you just take everyone you run into until either your vessel can't take any more, or you can't find more people.

In a winter storm, with quite a lot of people in the water, the priority is to get them out of the water and onto a ship or helicopter. At that stage you don't care about names or roles. That comes later.

And if you transport someone that is unconscious or not able to speak you may not know the name.

Confusion is to be expected.

(I do sea SAR work as a volunteer, and have taken part in mass rescue exercises).

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I don't know who wrote the slides but it normally the person presenting them.

Well, that's a tediously evasive non-answer.