The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[The Man]

Looking for comments by those more knowledgeable but it seems to me, even in close contact with a metal surface, a high explosive (not a shape charge) would not couple a lot of heat energy into the metal surface. There might be a heat-affected zone for some distance beneath the surface, but it would be more in the manner of a light case-hardening. I don't mean to ignore the deformation of the metal. What do others here think?

TIA

Well it's not like heating it with flame, external to internal. It's more like microwave heating, where the internal molecular motions generate the heat.

This link will help, under Shock Heating.

Science Explosives

As the shock wave passes it flexes the object. Some of the energy that goes into the deformation is given back as the elastic deformation returns to normal. However, not all of the energy is rereleased in the relaxation of the object. The difference in energy absorbed from the shock wave and energy released in the relaxation after it passes is retained in the object by heating it. Basically by friction of the various planes of the crystalline structure shifting one way or other and then back.

 

[Axxman300]

The Soviets torpedoed ships carrying ordinary civilian refugees fleeing East Prussia before the Russians arrived, looting, raping, dismembering and murdering local villagers. These were not military on board as all able-bodied men between age 15 - 55 were under conscription orders and would have been immediately shot for turning up as a 'refuge'. There were thesick and injured, sure, but the vast majority were women and children - as they had priority - and ordinary people. Sure, the Germans blacked out the news of the Wilhelm Gustloff, 'Steuben' and 'Goya' sinkings as well as the Russians downing aircraft carrying hundreds of children. It doesn't make it OK. Yes, everybody absolutely hated the Germans for what they did in WWII, especially the Russians in Leningrad/St Petersburg region, quite understandably. However, two wrongs do NOT make a right.

None of this has anything to do with the Estonia sinking due to her bow visor being knocked off in heavy seas.

It is not a backdrop to support the foolish assertion that the Russians had any hand in the sinking. What the Russians did in WWII has nothing to do with 1994.

 

[JayUtah]

Science Explosives

As the shock wave passes it flexes the object. Some of the energy that goes into the deformation is given back as the elastic deformation returns to normal. However, not all of the energy is rereleased in the relaxation of the object. The difference in energy absorbed from the shock wave and energy released in the relaxation after it passes is retained in the object by heating it. Basically by friction of the various planes of the crystalline structure shifting one way or other and then back.

This could be misleading in that it specifically calls out elastic deformation but only alludes to plastic deformation. Self-heating occurs in plastic deformation of metals as well.

 

[phiwum]

They aren't diversions though. As I said in my last post, the ability to answer the issues raised is directly liked to the subject at hand.

We aren't going off topic, the ability to deal with these issues is of vital importance given the stances Vixen is taking in the thread.

That applies to some of these digressions, but obviously not all.

Anyway, I said my peace and I don't want to continue in a derail.

 

[The Man]

This could be misleading in that it specifically calls out elastic deformation but only alludes to plastic deformation. Self-heating occurs in plastic deformation of metals.

Sorry about that, I could have been clearer by explicitly refencing the plastic deformation as what doesn't relax back on the part.

 

[GlennB]

The latest living room lab experiment -

I read that a candle flame can burn at around 1000c, but I couldn't get my thermocouple to read that high. But it was a very small flame and hard to guide the probe to the hottest part while checking the readout. Around 750 was the highest I saw.

The next experiment - I spotted our propane (butane? whatever) camping stove at the back of a cupboard. I reckon that'll burn good and hot in our laboratory. Report tomorrow.

 

[The Man]

As I recall, from the lab perspective, the hottest part of the flame (Bunsen burner) is between the reduction zone (yellow part) and the oxidizing zone (blue part). Specifically at the tip of the yellow part.

 

[Vixen]

Because it is a chaotic and confusing situation.
Mistakes always happen similar circumstances.

Tosh. There were only 137 survivors, split between three hospitals. What was difficult in getting the survivors list right? Not just once, but several times. How did the helicopter pilots manage to write the names of people in his log book who weren't there? Or the hospitals to open a medical file?

When the Captain of Mariella was asked how many people he rescued that night. He said he wasn't sure. Seriously?

 

[Vixen]

So where does she say detonation? Everything she talks about can be attributed to welding.

See here.

• controlled explosion
• high impact - high energy - high temperature
• large deformation - bending - metal twisted 180°.

 

[Vixen]

I haven't ignored the substantive claims. I've written on them at length, only to have Vixen ignore them or change subject, often by hurling ill-founded accusations such as the one under discussion. Therefore I will continue to call out behavior that I find objectionable in a debate, regardless of how they are named or taxonomized.

ETA: Yes, I agree that classifying a Gish gallop depends on how a fallacy is defined. My reason for not accepting it as an informal fallacy is that it's more properly a rhetorical technique. A single argument can be fallacious, e.g., an ad hominem argument. A Gish gallop is a rhetorical tactic involving several individual arguments, each of which can be logically sound. It is not the soundness of the argument or arguments that is in question, it's the gallop.

Gish gallop does not mean 'too much information for me to cope with' as it has been used by GlennB. By that definition, a theologist discussing the Bible's sixty-six books would be the epitome of gish gallop in GlennB's books.

 

[Vixen]

Thanks for posting those Vixen. I gather that posts #3129, 3130 and 3131 contain Westermann's observations, but #3133 and #3135 don't. Is that right?

More specifically, I presume the description of "plastic deformation due to a detonation" in post #3135 is not anything Westermann wrote.

I don't know who wrote the slides but it normally the person presenting them.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Tosh. There were only 137 survivors, split between three hospitals. What was difficult in getting the survivors list right? Not just once, but several times. How did the helicopter pilots manage to write the names of people in his log book who weren't there? Or the hospitals to open a medical file?

When the Captain of Mariella was asked how many people he rescued that night. He said he wasn't sure. Seriously?

Is it your claim that all the pilots and hospital staff lied?
To what purpose would they all do that?

What does the mistakes in the initial lists have to do with the survivors talking to the rescue teams or hospital staff?

 

[Vixen]

I gathered the same thing, and also that #3128 may not be Westermann's work either.

Vixen, please post the links to where you obtained these slides, so that we can determine which are the scientist's original statements and what other statements may have been made by others.

The downloads are here.

http://fokusestonia.se/estonias-bow-visor-was-blown-off/

 

[lobosrul5]

Tosh. There were only 137 survivors, split between three hospitals. What was difficult in getting the survivors list right? Not just once, but several times. How did the helicopter pilots manage to write the names of people in his log book who weren't there? Or the hospitals to open a medical file?

When the Captain of Mariella was asked how many people he rescued that night. He said he wasn't sure. Seriously?

What are you suggesting, is the conspiracy widening yet again? Yes, I can believe a commercial sea captain who likely was never involved in anything like the rescue of passengers off a capsized ferry in the middle of the night (and into the morning) not knowing exactly how many people his crew picked up. He may have had more pressing concerns than keeping a head count. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but its the duty of any sea vessel to render aid to stricken ships, but it is not something they practice much if it all.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It does seem like the conspiracy is widening, all the hospital staff and rescue workers are involved now.

 

[Steve]

It does seem like the conspiracy is widening, all the hospital staff and rescue workers are involved now.

An effective conspiracy of this sort necessarily requires several thousands of conspirators. All utterly reliable at keeping the secret without any qualms or second thoughts whatsoever regarding the many dead people.

It also requires one or two extremely bright people who can see through all the misdirection and subterfuge to inform the world of the "true facts". We here are so fortunate.

 

[JayUtah]

The downloads are here.

http://fokusestonia.se/estonias-bow-visor-was-blown-off/

Thank you. The slides are apparently intended to support a verbal report. Do you have a recording of that report?

 

[Vixen]

You ninja'ed me on this, but yes it is correct. Hitting the top of a metal stake with a metal hammer will cause the top of the stake to "mushroom" -- i.e., it will deform in response to the hammer blows and do so in a way that even looking at it with the naked eye would compel you to conclude, "This has been hit with a hammer."

The problem with concluding that no contact deformation has occurred is that it typically presumes the surfaces in question are not conformal. Parts that are designed to fit together and which undergo contact stress are not necessarily going to show classic signs of contact deformation. Further, the proposition that no signs of contact deformation are seen in (1) small specimens or (2) materials with significant surface contamination is at best inconclusive.

All right, fair enough, there might not be signs of 'contact deformation' in a contraption that is designed to fit in with another. For example, a spring locking system or concertina gates.


However, earlier in the week, the Estonian Safety Investigation Center (hereinafter OJK) Underwater at the wreck of Tuukritööde OÜ ferry Estonia in the period 14.-15.07.2021 robotic research to control sonar images and objects, makes a daring claim that the 'triangular deformations' seen on the car ramp appear to match the [shape] of the forepeak of the bow visor, presumably the triangular bit secured at the base with the Atlantic lock. Let's wind that back. The bow visor system somehow lifted up 1.4m during the phase it pulled forward the nested contraption at the top which also held in place the car ramp supporting structures. Before coming off, the bow visor was 'banging' on the forepeak deck just above the bulbous bow area, and this, the JAIC presumes, was the source of the bangs and vibrations survivors recounted.

Questions:

1. 1. The forepeak of the bow visor is ipso facto lower than the car ramp - to be able to cover it completely. How did the forepeak manage to bang on the car ramp at all - or even come into contact with it, as this seems to be a physical impossibility - before falling off?
   
2. 2. If the bow visor forepeak banged on the forepeak deck of the bulbous bow (weather deck) how come there are no signs of contact deformation in the visor forepeak, as after all, it was not designed to 'fit' the bow ramp door on any part of its surface, nor to 'click into' the forepeak deck?
   
3. 3. If it is the case there are no contact deformations on the bow visor forepeak: what caused the triangular deformations on the car ramp?

1.10.38 Looking at the center of the bottom of the ramp, strong deformations and twisting of the stiffeners in both directions. The main beams of the bow ramp have hinges triangular indentations that appear to be corresponding to the triangular contour of the forepeak deck.

OJK

 

[JayUtah]

See here.

• controlled explosion
• high impact - high energy - high temperature
• large deformation - bending - metal twisted 180°.

Specifically a controlled explosion with the intent to effect explosive welding. She notes a similarity to the layer boundaries achieved with explosive welding, but she pulls it back and says the scale is wrong. Looking at the micrographs, I agree: the scale is wrong. Therefore other means of forming layer boundaries come into play, such as reworked welds.

The slide notes "high energy impact" without further comment. The temperature claims are separate. Without knowing what specific observations she took to be evidence of a high-energy impact, or why she wrote that on the slide, it's problematic to determine to what extent she is concluding it, or, say, to what extent the effects are merely consistent with such a possible cause. It's a bullet point on a slide with no explanation.

Large deformations are not per se evidence of a detonation.

All her other findings are entirely consistent with steel that has been welded, and then been mechanically distorted.

 

[Vixen]

Well it's not like heating it with flame, external to internal. It's more like microwave heating, where the internal molecular motions generate the heat.

This link will help, under Shock Heating.

Science Explosives

As the shock wave passes it flexes the object. Some of the energy that goes into the deformation is given back as the elastic deformation returns to normal. However, not all of the energy is rereleased in the relaxation of the object. The difference in energy absorbed from the shock wave and energy released in the relaxation after it passes is retained in the object by heating it. Basically by friction of the various planes of the crystalline structure shifting one way or other and then back.

<fx Scouse accent> I'm learning, I'm learning.