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The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

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Vixen said:
This is the considered opinion of several investigative journalists. It does not originate from me.
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Is it, though? I regret that I am not convinced that it really is the opinion of these journalists based on your say-so alone. You seem to misapprehend what almost everyone in this thread says with such regularity that I have become distinctly cautious.
 
Vixen said:
I do not say anything, unless asked for my opinion.
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False. You responded to LondonJohn's summary of relevant scientific reasoning with

Vixen said:
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
You don't understand the scientific concept of 'null hypothesis'.
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We had a discussion in which we demonstrated that your understanding of what the null hypothesis is was in error. Your "opinion" that LondonJohn does not know what it is is predicated on demonstrated ignorance.

I am simply reporting the current affairs topic...
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Your typical threadbare dodge. What part of reporting on current affairs entails you accusing your critics of ignorance of a topic on which they've already demonstrated competence?

Learn to distinguish between pontification and current news.
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I certainly know the difference. You're pontificating.
 
Vixen said:
However, I am quite sure a Professor who has written research papers in Metallurgy specialising in Steel and Aluminium is familiar with the concept of welding and has taken such considerations into account.
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Which is why she did not claim a "detonation" was the cause. That was your claim, based on the false equivalence between high temperatures and detonations.
 
Vixen said:
You say 'probably decades behind' but the Russian space programme was quite advanced. And Russia shared with the USA the COSPAS-SARSAT system. In any case, the point isn't to use the stuff, it is to steal their strategy and get an insight into their defence plans.

Re civilian collateral: you saw at Salisbury recently, the Russians had no problem putting he lives of 250,000 people at risk just to target one guy and his daughter.

In WWII it had no problem bringing down the Swedish merchant ship Hansa even though it had been painted white to convey it was non-military (the Soviet motivation was to stop iron ore from reaching Germany).
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You realize that having enough poison to kill 250k people is not the same as putting 250k people at risk.

There's a bit of poison ivy in my backyard. It contains, I'm sure, enough Urishiol to produce rashes in me and my neighbors for blocks around. I am nonetheless not putting my neighbors at risk just by "owning" that much Urishiol.
 
Vixen said:
At the Norwegian University department she works at? Material Science students get to do all this stuff.
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Was a sample taken from the wreck to the university?

This isn't any sort of a loaded question. I'm curious, nothing more.
 
Vixen said:
The Russians have never admitted to either the Skirpal or the poisioned ex-spy incident. But the message has been received...?
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The Novichok poison used in the Skripal case is a military-grade nerve poison developed by the Soviets. Polonium, used in the Litvinenko case, is produced in a nuclear reactor and the primary source is Russia. By using these particular agents, Vlad "signed his name" to these operations, sending a very clear message.
 
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Vixen said:
Yes, it was mentioned before. See video of cargo boat being cut in half because of a swell. Obviously, in this case, this would have been an artificially induced swell from the explosion rather than a naturally occurring one.

(That's if we assume Linde is not lying. However, his description seems to be by someone who has experience of such an event.)
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I'm no physicist, but it seems to me that an explosion would have to be pretty massive to create a swell that affects a ferry like that. Someone who knows better than me can correct my misunderstanding, of course.
 
Wonder how that new investigation is going? It is the topic of the thread but I see no discussion or info relating to it.
 
phiwum said:
I'm no physicist, but it seems to me that an explosion would have to be pretty massive to create a swell that affects a ferry like that. Someone who knows better than me can correct my misunderstanding, of course.
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Cf. Captain_Swoop's links to ships being struck by various ordnance, including -- at the end -- a Mk 48 naval torpedo. You are correct in that a substantial detonation is required to heave the ship. Also, torpedoes are designed to swim under the keel of the ship and detonate there, thus causing such heave and breaking the keel. The combination of explosive charge and charge placement is required.

Also, such detonations are evinced in seismographs. No such detonations were recorded that night.
 
Vixen said:
That is completely irrelevant. I was quoting the Braidwood laboratory report from Clausthal-Zellerfeld, an independent forensic laboratory, who report the deformation on the metal they examined was consistent with a detonation or a temperature over 700°C. The fact that you know of something that reaches this temperature is a non-sequitur.
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Well, it would have been a non-sequitur but for the fact that you claimed such temperatures couldn't have been reached outside a laboratory. You made this relevant.

But, if you'd like to take that claim back and admit that you were wrong, I reckon everyone could drop the point that such temperatures are easily reached outside the lab.
 
Vixen said:
It was not 'extremely bad weather' it was normal bad weather for that time of the year. In addition, ocean swells cannot reach the Baltic Sea.

Another false premise leading to erroneous conclusions.
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It was a storm with six meter waves.
 
Vixen said:
Actually, he probably did mean 700°C. Just because a mig welder gets to 6,000°C, it doesn't mean the metal it is cutting does.. The melting point of steel is about 1,500°C and safe to say you'd have to hold your flame there a long time before that happens. What Braidwood's experts were pointing out was that the metal itself had to reach a temperature of 700°C before it deformed to that level. Not the flipping flame, which of course is hot.
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A welder works by melting the metal. How do you think it gets the parts to join together?
 
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