The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[Vixen]

These two links say the lugs on the bottom lock failed through overload though it's not quite clear to me whether the pin was ripped out of the lugs or the lugs were torn off their welds. Either way the lug on the visor was able to slip off the pin while remaining attached to the visor, though that lug was both stretched and somewhat bent:
https://web.archive.org/web/2004081...nettomuustutkinta.fi/estonia/chapt12_3.html#1
https://web.archive.org/web/2004081...nettomuustutkinta.fi/estonia/chapt13_2.html#3

It does say the likely sequence of the progressive failure had the locks fail before the hinges, so the visor was not dangling on its bottom lock as Vixen suggested.

By the JAIC's own account, it was, with the two side locks having come off.

 

[JayUtah]

...from the descriptions of crew having to use a hammer to get it to lock, due to misaligned lugs on the sides.

In your vast experience operating engineered mechanisms, what are the possible consequences of misaligned components?

No ship ever sunk because it was pounded by waves.

Ships are damaged all the time by wave action. Whether the damage results in the ship foundering depends on a number of other design factors. We already discussed the fact that a ship with a large, open car deck would be rendered considerably unstable if it were to ship water there.

Boats sink because the trim is wrong or it is too top heavy.

Wrong. Boats sink for exactly and only one reason: they have ceased to be buoyant. There are many things that can cause that to happen, among them having developed such a prominent list that deck openings are awash.

Sweden's greatest maritime embarrassment, the Vasa which went bottoms up almost immediately after having cost a fortune to construct and the demolition of 300 oak trees.

According to you, since its hull was not breached, it should have simply turned turtle and floated for hours.

IMV even if it were so the bow visor fell off in a storm, I am sceptical it would have sunk in a matter of minutes, without anyone have a chance to evacuate.

And you say this from your vast experience designing, building, and operating oceangoing vessels, and developing failure models and flooding models at the professional level? You're quite welcome to your opinion. It just doesn't matter.

 

[Vixen]

The backlash starts!

Espressen and another paywall media, Filter, is today challenging Sara Hedrenius' and Carl Ovberg's claim that they saw military vehicles loaded into the car ramp just before departure...because "eight people" on the quay at Tallinn did not!

Henrik Sillaste also claims he saw water up to the ceiling in the car deck and that 'people shouldn't spread misinformation'.

The eyewitness stood on the quay
Estonian Paul Lõiv was on his way abroad to Sweden but was stopped by a border guard before they were to board the ferry. The reason was that his friend did not drive his own car. At the time, a special permit was required, something he did not have, writes Filter.

Paul therefore stayed on the quayside with some of his friends and got to see Estonia go one last time.

Paul tells Filter that he has lost count of the number of times he has read or heard about conspiracies and mysterious transports that rolled on board Estonia just before departure. But regardless, he can state that it did not happen.

- My friends and I stood there all the time until the ship left. We saw nothing unusual, he says to Filter.

Border guard Rene Sommer worked the day Estonia sank and was also on site at the quay. He also did not see anything unusual going up the ramp into the ferry.

- For me, it was a normal day at work. Everything was normal. What I remember are the young athletes I released on board. Five left, two came back,

As Swedish newspapers are state-funded they need to be circumspect about being seen to say anything critical about the state who funds them.

Saw how the water rushed in
The ship mechanic Henrik Sillaste was on board Estonia and far below deck when the ferry first got into trouble. He then went up to the control room where two other engineers told that the ship took in water via the bow.

Next to all panels and meters there was also a black and white monitor that showed camcorders from car tires. There he could see with his own eyes how water rushed in next to the ramp at the front.

Two of his colleagues saw after a while how the water covered the car tires and later how it splashed up over the camera that was in the ceiling.

To Filter, Sillaste says that he is disappointed with the viewers who uncritically took in the content of the series.

- People who spread misinformation about such a thing exploit the despair of vulnerable people, he says.

- What can I say? Start thinking! I can 't give people physics books. If you do not understand: go to the archive, retrieve the documents, read on.

IMV the above in bold indicates the water could have been from the fire sprays, as he say the water was hitting the ceiling. The car deck was several metres high. How can the water have been splashing the tyres in one shot and then in minutes, it's at the ceiling? Sillaste, Treu, Kaduk and Linde, the only working seamen/engineers to have survived were doing a wholeload of other stuff, such as Linde visiting the deck at the fore (he claims) then running down and then up behind Captain Andresson just before watch change at 1:00am.

If it was up to the ceiling they should have begun evacuation of passengers.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

By the JAIC's own account, it was, with the two side locks having come off.

No, it wasn't. Those links in the post you were replying to go to a copy of the JAIC report.

From section 13.5
"All the attachments of the visor, the locking devices, the deck hinges and the lifting cylinder mountings failed under local overload tension. The attachments may have failed in one or, possibly, a few steps. The partial initial failure may have coincided with a single metallic bang, observed by the AB seaman.
The main failure is believed to have happened in a subsequent wave impact, shortly after the metallic bang. In this main failure the remaining locking devices failed completely, allowing the visor to open partly. Once the visor had lifted off its locating horns, the port side hinge failed under the overload generated by the high twisting and yawing moments and the vertical force. The starboard side hinge failed as a result of twisting when the visor was rotating clockwise. Hydrodynamic loads pressed the visor against the front bulkhead along which it slid upwards. The hydraulic lifting cylinders may have failed at the same moment or may have remained connected for some further time."

 

[phiwum]

IMV the above in bold indicates the water could have been from the fire sprays, as he say the water was hitting the ceiling. The car deck was several metres high. How can the water have been splashing the tyres in one shot and then in minutes, it's at the ceiling? Sillaste, Treu, Kaduk and Linde, the only working seamen/engineers to have survived were doing a wholeload of other stuff, such as Linde visiting the deck at the fore (he claims) then running down and then up behind Captain Andresson just before watch change at 1:00am.

If it was up to the ceiling they should have begun evacuation of passengers.

Yes, your reasoning is so compelling, we should ignore the highlighted sentence below (just as you have):

Saw how the water rushed in
The ship mechanic Henrik Sillaste was on board Estonia and far below deck when the ferry first got into trouble. He then went up to the control room where two other engineers told that the ship took in water via the bow.

Next to all panels and meters there was also a black and white monitor that showed camcorders from car tires. There he could see with his own eyes how water rushed in next to the ramp at the front.
Two of his colleagues saw after a while how the water covered the car tires and later how it splashed up over the camera that was in the ceiling.

To Filter, Sillaste says that he is disappointed with the viewers who uncritically took in the content of the series.

- People who spread misinformation about such a thing exploit the despair of vulnerable people, he says.

- What can I say? Start thinking! I can 't give people physics books. If you do not understand: go to the archive, retrieve the documents, read on.

Definitely, the best explanation for the water rushing in next to the ramp is the sprinklers on the ceiling. Good point there.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Two of his colleagues saw after a while how the water covered the car tires and later how it splashed up over the camera that was in the ceiling.

IMV the above in bold indicates the water could have been from the fire sprays, as he say the water was hitting the ceiling. The car deck was several metres high. How can the water have been splashing the tyres in one shot and then in minutes, it's at the ceiling?

"In minutes" the ship was lying on its side.

There was no fire. Nobody described a sprinkler system going off. The ship was being buffeted by waves and there was water covering cars' wheels on the car deck. Within minutes the ship would be on its side. At some point before that water would have been splashing as high as the ceiling. None of that is in any way confusing.

 

[JayUtah]

Henrik Sillaste also claims he saw water up to the ceiling in the car deck...

He said it was "splashing" up to the cameras on the ceiling. I don't read that as the nominal water level having risen to the ceiling.

...and that 'people shouldn't spread misinformation'.

Such as claims that the fire alarm had been raised?

 

[Here_to_learn]

As Swedish newspapers are state-funded they need to be circumspect about being seen to say anything critical about the state who funds them.

https://rsf.org/en/ranking

 

[Vixen]

The Russian Northern Fleet are watching!

According to Turun Sanomat a Russian vessel was watching the RS Sentinel from afar. Apparently it is a research boat (of course it is).

On Thursday, a Russian lifeboat, Murman, whose home port is quite far north of Murmansk, was spotted from the research vessel.

The Murmansk region is known as the home base of the Russian Northern Fleet. The Russians are thought to be monitoring the investigations.

On Wednesday, it was reported that the crew of the Sentinel ship had talked to the Finnish Coast Guard, which had been polite and promised not to interfere.

Estonia rests in international waters. The wreck has been declared a graveyard sanctioned by a treaty of states. According to Postimees , Finns will not interfere in Estonian research unless they interfere with the Finnish economic zone.

Finnish expert Harri Ruotsalainen suggested to the Estonian Rikstag a few days ago that the cargo in the car ramp and around the vessel should be checked against the consignment notes to see if any are missing. If they are, he claims, it proves a vehicle or vehicles were removed mid-journey. He seems confident about hos theory.

Now , years later, the Swede, heard as a Finnish expert, told the Commission of his findings from November 1994. He said that he had been an adviser to the Estonian Rescue Board. He would have been shown sounding results at the time, which he concluded to testify to the cargo coming out of Estonia.

Ruotsalainen emphasized in the Riigikogu's survivors committee that the most important thing is to study the location of the cargo. If all the cargo entered in the consignment note is on board, a point can be made. If the cargo is found outside the ship, the theory is confirmed.

I doubt RS Sentinel has been able to do much over the last two days as the weather in the area has been blustery with heavy rain.

 

[GlennB]

According to Turun Sanomat a Russian vessel was watching the RS Sentinel from afar. Apparently it is a research boat (of course it is).

Finnish expert Harri Ruotsalainen suggested to the Estonian Rikstag a few days ago that the cargo in the car ramp and around the vessel should be checked against the consignment notes to see if any are missing. If they are, he claims, it proves a vehicle or vehicles were removed mid-journey. He seems confident about hos theory.

I doubt RS Sentinel has been able to do much over the last two days as the weather in the area has been blustery with heavy rain.

Do the highlighted parts make you stop and think a little?

 

[Vixen]

Yes, your reasoning is so compelling, we should ignore the highlighted sentence below (just as you have):



Definitely, the best explanation for the water rushing in next to the ramp is the sprinklers on the ceiling. Good point there.

This is Sillaste's drawing of what he saw on the monitor.

The water is gushing in at the sides (which it had been doing for some time, hence the crew had developed a habit of plugging it with bedding), not the top. Nor can he see the bow visor 'was missing'.

 

[phiwum]

This is Sillaste's drawing of what he saw on the monitor.

The water is gushing in at the sides (which it had been doing for some time, hence the crew had developed a habit of plugging it with bedding), not the top. Nor can he see the bow visor 'was missing'.

Nice to see the tradition of completely failing to answer a post continues.

Look, Vixen, your witness speaks of seeing water coming from the sides of the ramp. You conclude that it must have been the ceiling sprinklers. See any issues there?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

This is Sillaste's drawing of what he saw on the monitor.

The water is gushing in at the sides (which it had been doing for some time, hence the crew had developed a habit of plugging it with bedding), not the top. Nor can he see the bow visor 'was missing'.

No. The water in that drawing is gushing in all the way up the sides. You're going to need much, much better evidence than anecdotes about the crew using bedding to stop leaks before you can claim that was in any way normal or precedented.

 

[Vixen]

The ROV operator, Linus Andersson, who was in Henrik Evertsson's crew, is present on board.

The Swedish underwater robot operator Linus Andersson, who took the pictures in Henrik Evertsson's Estonia documentary "The find that changes everything", is also on board. Andersson was recently acquitted by a dissenting Gothenburg district court, where he was charged with violating the so-called grave peace.

The majority of the district court then rejected the so-called Estonia Act because the law is contrary to the principles of international law, as Estonia is on international waters.

Andersson tells Postimees that he is optimistic about the new investigation and happy to be able to do his "real job" despite the previous assignment ending in court.

Friatider

Weekend forecast set to be sunny 15 °C.

 

[Vixen]

Nice to see the tradition of completely failing to answer a post continues.

Look, Vixen, your witness speaks of seeing water coming from the sides of the ramp. You conclude that it must have been the ceiling sprinklers. See any issues there?

Sillaste says the CCTV camera is located in the car deck ceiling and it had water sprinkling over it.

 

[junkshop]

Sillaste says the CCTV camera is located in the car deck ceiling and it had water sprinkling over it.

Splashing, not sprinkling.

 

[JayUtah]

Sillaste says the CCTV camera is located in the car deck ceiling and it had water sprinkling over it.

Splashing up to it. And the context is water they first saw on the car deck. Reinterpreting his statements to support a claim that the fire suppression sprinklers were going off seems very stilted.

 

[whoanellie]

This is Sillaste's drawing of what he saw on the monitor.

The water is gushing in at the sides (which it had been doing for some time, hence the crew had developed a habit of plugging it with bedding), not the top. Nor can he see the bow visor 'was missing'.

In that drawing isn't the ramp blocking the view of the visor? Why is there water 'gushing' in? Was blocking water with bedding part of the ship's design?

 

[Vixen]

No. The water in that drawing is gushing in all the way up the sides. You're going to need much, much better evidence than anecdotes about the crew using bedding to stop leaks before you can claim that was in any way normal or precedented.

The crew were specifically asked by the JAIC investigators what was what looked like a red mattress doing near the car ramp, as pictured on the Rockwater videos. They were also asked whether a store of bedding was kept there and the answer was that the ramp was known to leak so they stuffed this bedding in the car ramp frame. The fact they kept a store of bedding - not towels but mattresses!!! - and that customers had complained in the past of water splashing around their tyres at journey's end, tells you all you need to know.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The crew were specifically asked by the JAIC investigators what was what looked like a red mattress doing near the car ramp, as pictured on the Rockwater videos. They were also asked whether a store of bedding was kept there and the answer was that the ramp was known to leak so they stuffed this bedding in the car ramp frame. The fact they kept a store of bedding - not towels but mattresses!!! - and that customers had complained in the past of water splashing around their tyres at journey's end, tells you all you need to know.

No.

Perhaps it tells you all you want to hear but plugging up some leaks to keep the car deck dry and stop water running across it to the annoyance of passengers is not in any way the same thing as a cascade of water pouring in on both sides of the ramp from floor to ceiling, and it's absurd for you to pretend that it is.