The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[theprestige]

That claim was made by Finnish Rear Admiral Heimo Iivonen, who reported this to the JAIC. He is/was also head of the Finnish Coastguard, so I doubt very much he was being less than honest about this.

Betcha he didn't report anything of the kind.

Here's the section of the JAIC report discussing rescue operations, including radio transmissions:

https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html#3

Much mention is made of Channel 16 in this chapter, including transcripts of extensive distress traffic recorded by several stations on that channel. No mention is made at all of any jamming on that channel, or even any significant interference of any kind.

And I can't find a mention anywhere in the report of Admiral Iivonen, who was actually a JAIC commissioner, reporting anything at all about Russian jamming of channel 16 or any other frequency of interest.

 

[phiwum]

Simple maths. The distance from Tallinn to Utö is 194 km. = 120.55 miles = 104.76 nm = 16 knots ave over 6.55 hours.

If it was doing 2 knots faster or slower, that would be an increase of 3 miles +/- per hour, so either 18 miles more or 18miles less, giving a range of between 138 miles - 102.55 miles ( 222 km - 165 km) but we know it reached 193 km (Utö) so that fits with the estimated 120.55 miles travelled during that time to end up in the spot it was found.

You said that JAIC reported that average speed and you said it was 18kts, not 16kts. And you used 18kts in your calculations earlier.

More than a wee bit puzzling.

Also, those figures... Is that 16kts the average speed that night or the average speed required to maintain schedule? If the latter, why should we care? And if we care, the figure is too low. See the JAIC entry on timetables, which I quoted earlier.

OK, let's try distances instead.

18 knots x 6.55 hours = 117 nautical miles = 135.67 miles or, 218 km. So, 208 km to go. Just 5 km out either way. (Half way point of 426km is 213km).

Distance wise it was at the half-way stage, give or take 5 km.

Assumptions: Tallinn to Stockholm is 426 km. Utö to Stockholm is 193 km. The wreck is 40 km from Utö, South-South-East. However, Utö has very similar coordinates to the wreck so no real adjustment required, but we could allow for 20km or so more needed., say 213km away.

It had been travelling since 19:15 so by 1:48 (six hours and 33 minutes) it was 6.55 hours into its journey when it went off the radar.

Obviously, it would be going at varying speeds. However, the JAIC said the average speed was 18 knots, so I used that figure.

 

[LondonJohn]

Have a read through Silver Linde's witness statement 2002, wherein he explains it very well https://www.estoniaferrydisaster.net/pdf/Enclosure16.pdf

In addition the shipping line had had bomb threats so this bomb threat scenario was part of the Mr Skylight fire drill. It was nothing at all to do with 'ship sinking!'.

I repeat: "Mr Skylight" was nothing to do with a fire drill specifically.

Are you simply going to keep asserting - in the face of the evidence - that this was solely to do with an onboard fire?

 

[LondonJohn]

The German Group of Expert put forward the alternative version of a water spray in case of fire.

You can see where the belief that the car deck had some corrosive fumes came from, especially as the stern car ramp had also been opened at the top.

I can certainly sea how/why the "German Group of Experts" might have been searching for something - anything - that would indicate the cause of the sinking to be nothing whatsoever to do with the German shipyard which designed and built the ship, and which assembled & hired this "group of experts".

I can see that, yes.

 

[junkshop]

In addition the shipping line had had bomb threats so this bomb threat scenario was part of the Mr Skylight fire drill. It was nothing at all to do with 'ship sinking!'.

Did you read the article LondonJohn linked? Here's the relevant part:

Seafaring vessels have their own codewords. One of these, “Mr Skylight”, is a general emergency code that may be announced over the tannoy on a cruise ship. The crew used it during the sinking of the MS Estonia in 1994, which killed 852 people. As the disaster unfolded, a cryptic announcement was made: “Mr Skylight to Number One and Two” – indicating that crew were to shut watertight doors to seal parts of the hull.

So a general and non-specific emergency code. No-one claimed it is/was anything to do with 'ship sinking!', that is your invention.

ETA1: Also your claim that

an automatic coded message, 'Mr. Skylight 1' and 'Mr. Skylight 2' did go off. this was a code for the crew to know where their meeting point was to deal with passengers. It would explain the water spraying over the car deck monitors: fire sprays, not seawater.

does not tally with other sources, in either the coded message's content or it's meaning. Care to offer a citation?

ETA2: multiple ninjas cut me to ribbons

 

[whoanellie]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vessel_emergency_codes

Mr Skylight paged over the PA system is an alert for the crew on board and means there is a minor emergency somewhere.[4][5]]

[4] The Joint Accident Investigation Commission of MV ESTONIA and Edita Ltd. (1997). "Final report on the MV ESTONIA disaster of 28 September 1994".
[5] Anders Bergek; Hanna Johansson; Maria Lundquist; Sara Rutgersson; Chris Ryder; Jessica Stark; Maria Stensdotter. Linköpings universitet (2003). "Sjögång och skeppsjargong" (PDF) (in Swedish).

Note that the wikipedia entry explaining 'Mr Skylight' references the JAIC report.

 

[Vixen]

I don't know any port that would 'fine' or charge a ship for not arriving at a set time. Weather and tide are always variables.

Where are you getting this from?

As I said, it would obviously be its performance over time.

Airport authorities: Civil Aviation Authority:

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has issued 630 fines since February 11 to airlines who have carried passengers with incorrect documentation, according to the Department for Transport.

Business Traveller

Port of London Authority - a whole list of fines, here:

The current range of enforcement options adopted by the PLA includes:

Education;
Verbal Warning (Informal);
Harbour Master's Warning (Formal);
Harbour Master's Reprimand (Formal);
Prosecution.

The Table below gives details of every PLA prosecution since 1994. The most common offences against the Port of London Act are:

Section 108 – Navigating without due care and attention.

Section 118 – Failure to comply with general or special directions.

Section 167 – Requirement at all times to proceed at a safe speed

2003 The Master of a passenger vessel navigated his vessel in such a manner so as to constrain another vessel's safe navigation, resulting in a near miss. A prosecution was brought by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency under Section 58 of the merchant Shipping Act 1995. The Master was fined £500 and costs of £1000.

These ports (sea/air) serve many companies/airlines/shipping lines.

If people do not stick to the time slots, huge queues build up. I don't know if you've ever been in a long queue at Heathrow with a whole load of planes delayed all because one or two planes were late taking off, meaning you had a real chance of missing your connecting flight the other end.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Kurm was the Estonia Chief Prosecutor and once Head of the JAIC. It is believed he has in his archives the original Bills of Lading for the cargo. Anyway, he seems extraordinarily confident that it was a Swedish submarine that made contact, one of an early prototype which Sweden then brought out a year later without mentioning the earlier 'accident' with the original.

Apart from the damage is above the waterline and the bows of all the Swedish subs, (like all modern subs), curve down to the waterline.

 

[Vixen]

You said that JAIC reported that average speed and you said it was 18kts, not 16kts. And you used 18kts in your calculations earlier.

More than a wee bit puzzling.

Also, those figures... Is that 16kts the average speed that night or the average speed required to maintain schedule? If the latter, why should we care? And if we care, the figure is too low. See the JAIC entry on timetables, which I quoted earlier.

As I recall the JAIC complained the vessel was going too fast. As no vessel travels in a straight line or a constant speed one can ony estimate. However, the ship did end up at the mid-way point both by distance and by coordinates, give or take 15km either side. So, knowing where it ended up and how long it took to get there you can calculate the average speed.

 

[whoanellie]

As I said, it would obviously be its performance over time.

Airport authorities: Civil Aviation Authority:

Business Traveller

Port of London Authority - a whole list of fines, here:




These ports (sea/air) serve many companies/airlines/shipping lines.

If people do not stick to the time slots, huge queues build up. I don't know if you've ever been in a long queue at Heathrow with a whole load of planes delayed all because one or two planes were late taking off, meaning you had a real chance of missing your connecting flight the other end.

Obviously you went googling for something to support your claim that the Estonia would have been fined if it arrived late and found nothing. Thanks for trying. Your attempts to conflate sea ports and airports are embarrassing to watch.

 

[Vixen]

Did you read the article LondonJohn linked? Here's the relevant part:


So a general and non-specific emergency code. No-one claimed it is/was anything to do with 'ship sinking!', that is your invention.

In the case of the Estonia it was the code for specifically a fire drill. The crew regularly practised these fire drills.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Obviously it would be over time. Not like a parking ticket.

Even Railway networks in the UK get fined for not running their trains sufficiently on time, should the authorities take a dim view.

How is an UK railway anything like a sea port?

A ferry like Estonia will be running in to a berth dedicated to that shipping line, at a terminal owned or leased by the shipping line. Their only charges will be for pilotage if it is needed.

You are making stuff up as you go along.

 

[Vixen]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vessel_emergency_codes



Note that the wikipedia entry explaining 'Mr Skylight' references the JAIC report.

If the JAIC wrote that:

Mr Skylight paged over the PA system is an alert for the crew on board and means there is a minor emergency somewhere.[4][5]

That is another serious error by them.

Since when was a fire alert 'a minor emergency somewhere'. That is totally bonkers.

 

[Vixen]

Obviously you went googling for something to support your claim that the Estonia would have been fined if it arrived late and found nothing. Thanks for trying. Your attempts to conflate sea ports and airports are embarrassing to watch.

You really have no conception of why public transport networks have a requirement to stick to the timetables.

 

[JayUtah]

If people do not stick to the time slots, huge queues build up.

None of the fines you mentioned were for arriving outside their "time slots." They were legitimately for regulatory infractions.

Have you ever flown an airplane in or out of a busy airport? Did you have to specify a "time slot" for either end of your journey? Also, why do you think airports and sea ports operate on the same footing?

 

[Vixen]

How is an UK railway anything like a sea port?

A ferry like Estonia will be running in to a berth dedicated to that shipping line, at a terminal owned or leased by the shipping line. Their only charges will be for pilotage if it is needed.

You are making stuff up as you go along.

Actually I read it somewhere.

 

[JayUtah]

You really have no conception of why public transport networks have a requirement to stick to the timetables.

How many public transportation networks have you worked at as an employee?

 

[JayUtah]

That is another serious error by them.

Or possibly another "because I say so" argument from you. Can you document that the code phrase in question really was a fire alert?

 

[Vixen]

None of the fines you mentioned were for arriving outside their "time slots." They were legitimately for regulatory infractions.

Have you ever flown an airplane in or out of a busy airport? Did you have to specify a "time slot" for either end of your journey? Also, why do you think airports and sea ports operate on the same footing?

(a) I read that Stockholm Port is strict about the passenger ferries being on time and (b) I did airports as one of my case studies, so I do know how they operate.

Airports and Ports do have the force of law.

 

[Vixen]

How many public transportation networks have you worked at as an employee?

I have done extensive case studies of various industries - including public transport - as part of my business studies.