The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[LondonJohn]

But the only actual link to a source you've provided....

....is not a link to a primary source. Instead, it's a link to an advocacy website, which itself claims to be referencing primary sources.


You're still not quite understanding the whole concept of trusted sources, it would appear.

 

[JesseCuster]

I want to see sources, citations and proper references for your claim that i) at midnight the ship was the the half-way point on its journey ii)at midnight the last point it was in international waters and ii) at midnight the ship's watch was changing shifts.
Remember, your posts are sourced, cited and properly referenced. You said so yourself.

Here you go.

The plots have not been analyzed by JAIC or other parties. Without any fact JAIC concluded the last voyage on a number of assumptions, such as departure time, route and speed. They didn't even bother to interrogate the second M/V Estonia crew to determine the normal route for the ship. As to the weather situation they assumed it to be worse than their own investigation proved, something that did not stop them from stating that the weather situation was extreme during the last voyage.

From various sources, not used in this report as evidence, we have got information that M/V Estonia's normal route from Tallinn was through the north exit, not through the west bound exit as JAIC assumed. After leaving the north exit a north west course was set to join the other ships in the traffic separation zone, following the same in an almost westerly course. The reason was mainly a safety matter as they then followed the zone together with the other ships and thereby they never had to cross the traffic zone in mid night and unfavorable angle (not permitted/recommended). But it is also true that M/V Estonia used two alternative routs, one called the "South route" and one called the "North route". See the following picture.

The both M/V Estonia routes (green arrows) had in common the north exit in and out from Tallinn. Both routes also followed the traffic separation zone and the other ships (blue and red arrows) in the Gulf of Finland. The South route was heading for Stockholm via Sandhamn, and the North route also heading for Stockholm was via the north entry at Söderarm. When M/V Estonia on route from Tallinn should use the South route they had to alter the course to avoid meeting the fleet from Stockholm to Finland in a small and dangerous angle. Therefore they followed the traffic separation zone to the south (south west of Hangö) before changing course towards Sandhamn.

privat. bahnhof

That says absolutely nothing about the Estonia being at the halfway point on its journey when it sank or that it was at its "last point in international waters" when it sank.

Did you make a mistake when copying and pasting and paste in the wrong text?

 

[JesseCuster]

Anyway, why would the Russians want the ship to be at exactly its halfway point in its journey in order to sink it?

Or at its "last point in international waters" before sinking it?

What advantage is there to either of sinking it at either of those

I also don't understand sinking it at midnight to "send a message". What message does that send?

Also, how did the Russians contrive to have the Estonia be at its halfway point in its journey and its last point in international waters happen at midnight Swedish time?

 

[Vixen]

Haha yes!

But actually what gets me is why anyone would go to all that trouble to exfiltrate Soviet tech in the first place. By 1994 it would already have been obvious to experts that the Soviets were lagging behind the west in all key areas of military technology. Electronics, materials, processes... Sweden must have known it was already at least a decade ahead of whatever the Russians had to offer at that point. Why would they invest any resources at all in getting their hands on 80s-era Soviet air defense radar tech, or whatever? Why would the Russians be even a little bit fussed about such leakage anyway? Those horses all left the barn when the USSR collapsed in the first place.

You have to iunderstand the political background. Then POTUS Bill Clinton was keen to be a peace-negotiator between Israel and Palestine. Israel was suffering many terrorists acts in 1994.


So, whilst one might not approve of Jutta Rabe's wikileak-style of investigative journalism, I have no doubt she believes her sources to be authentic, when she claims the FSU/Russian cargo Sweden was smuggling out of Estonia was on the order of the CIA/USA and was intended for Israel.

Despite pressure from the anti-Israeli (and anti-Semitic) right wing of the Russian political spectrum, Yeltsin promoted ties with Israel while taking an "evenhanded" position on the Arab-Israeli conflict. He also sought to exploit Russia's position as co-sponsor of the Middle East peace process to bolster his domestic position, particularly in 1993 and 1994.

Middle East Journal

 

[Vixen]

If Western intelligence agencies just wanted to get a peek at ex-Soviet hardware left behind in Estonia, I wonder why it never occurred to them to, you know, go to Estonia and maybe bribe whoever was guarding it instead of paying them to nick it and escort it to a ferry heading for Sweden. Not so intelligent after all, eh?

The CIA/KSI/MI6 was in Estonia already helping it to develop its own intelligence agencies.

The idea that the USA/West would never dream of spying on Russia is incredibly amusing.

 

[lobosrul5]

The CIA/KSI/MI6 was in Estonia already helping it to develop its own intelligence agencies.

The idea that the USA/West would never dream of spying on Russia is incredibly amusing.

Please show where anyone has made such a ridiculous claim. This is not equivalent to stating we're not interested in a bunch of old Soviet junk that we already have examples of anyway.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The CIA/KSI/MI6 was in Estonia already helping it to develop its own intelligence agencies.

The idea that the USA/West would never dream of spying on Russia is incredibly amusing.

No kidding. I shall try to remember to make it more obvious when I'm making a sarcastic joke in future.

 

[Vixen]

Yup just fact number, I dunno, 50 or so, that none of this makes any real sense. I could see say Iran, North Korea, or Al Qaeda being interested in it... Sweden is just a WTF. Why would they be interested in 10 year old tech that was probably 10 years out of date when it was new. The Soviets were falling further and further behind as the Cold War dragged on. I have doubts that even the CIA would be interested by 1994.

History, dear Fellow. As you know East Europe was under the iron fist of the vast stalinist Soviet Union. Many of the so-called Baltic States populations were displaced by the Soviets and 'russified'. At the collapse of the Soviet Union, Swedish PM Carl Bildt, said to have been a CIA-agent according to wikileaks, was very keen to ensure nothing went wrong in bringing these newly liberated states into the realm of Western democracies and into the European Union.

As 25% of the population of Estonia is officially Russian ethnicity/citizenship a moment's thought will indicate that it is obvious there will be resistance from this class, which was also largely the former ruling classes, and still loyal to the old stalinists and the new Russia.

The Iron Curtain may have come down in 1991 but changing the political landscape and ensuring independence was not something that could be taken for granted.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Please show where anyone has made such a ridiculous claim. This is not equivalent to stating we're not interested in a bunch of old Soviet junk that we already have examples of anyway.

<raises hand> Sorry. I literally did make the ridiculous claim that it never occurred to Western intelligence agencies to visit Estonia after the Soviets left. And to be fair, Vixen was not the only one who reacted as if I was serious.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

History, dear Fellow. As you know East Europe was under the iron fist of the vast stalinist Soviet Union. Many of the so-called Baltic States populations were displaced by the Soviets and 'russified'. At the collapse of the Soviet Union, Swedish PM Carl Bildt, said to have been a CIA-agent according to wikileaks, was very keen to ensure nothing went wrong in bringing these newly liberated states into the realm of Western democracies and into the European Union.

As 25% of the population of Estonia is officially Russian ethnicity/citizenship a moment's thought will indicate that it is obvious there will be resistance from this class, which was also largely the former ruling classes, and still loyal to the old stalinists and the new Russia.

The Iron Curtain may have come down in 1991 but changing the political landscape and ensuring independence was not something that could be taken for granted.

Once again I sit amazed that this looks for all the world as if it's intended as a reply to the post it's quoting yet not addressing its point in any way.

 

[Andy_Ross]

You have to iunderstand the political background. Then POTUS Bill Clinton was keen to be a peace-negotiator between Israel and Palestine. Israel was suffering many terrorists acts in 1994.


So, whilst one might not approve of Jutta Rabe's wikileak-style of investigative journalism, I have no doubt she believes her sources to be authentic, when she claims the FSU/Russian cargo Sweden was smuggling out of Estonia was on the order of the CIA/USA and was intended for Israel.

Middle East Journal

What would Israel want with old Russian electronics?

 

[Andy_Ross]

History, dear Fellow. As you know East Europe was under the iron fist of the vast stalinist Soviet Union. Many of the so-called Baltic States populations were displaced by the Soviets and 'russified'. At the collapse of the Soviet Union, Swedish PM Carl Bildt, said to have been a CIA-agent according to wikileaks, was very keen to ensure nothing went wrong in bringing these newly liberated states into the realm of Western democracies and into the European Union.

As 25% of the population of Estonia is officially Russian ethnicity/citizenship a moment's thought will indicate that it is obvious there will be resistance from this class, which was also largely the former ruling classes, and still loyal to the old stalinists and the new Russia.

The Iron Curtain may have come down in 1991 but changing the political landscape and ensuring independence was not something that could be taken for granted.

How does that answer the question?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

What would Israel want with old Russian electronics?

Maybe they had some cool old vintage hifi that needed new valves.

 

[Vixen]

I HAVE studied 20th Century Baltic politics, as well as security studies and the Cold War and post Cold War former Soviet Union.

Which is why I keep asking Vixen, have you?

On a hobby basis, yes.

 

[theprestige]

History, dear Fellow. As you know East Europe was under the iron fist of the vast stalinist Soviet Union. Many of the so-called Baltic States populations were displaced by the Soviets and 'russified'. At the collapse of the Soviet Union, Swedish PM Carl Bildt, said to have been a CIA-agent according to wikileaks, was very keen to ensure nothing went wrong in bringing these newly liberated states into the realm of Western democracies and into the European Union.

As 25% of the population of Estonia is officially Russian ethnicity/citizenship a moment's thought will indicate that it is obvious there will be resistance from this class, which was also largely the former ruling classes, and still loyal to the old stalinists and the new Russia.

The Iron Curtain may have come down in 1991 but changing the political landscape and ensuring independence was not something that could be taken for granted.

Okay, but why would Sweden be interested in tech that was likely outdated when it was first deployed, and almost certainly behind what Sweden already had developed for itself or in collaboration with other Western powers?

 

[Vixen]

Anyway, why would the Russians want the ship to be at exactly its halfway point in its journey in order to sink it?

Or at its "last point in international waters" before sinking it?

What advantage is there to either of sinking it at either of those

I also don't understand sinking it at midnight to "send a message". What message does that send?

Also, how did the Russians contrive to have the Estonia be at its halfway point in its journey and its last point in international waters happen at midnight Swedish time?

I trust you understand the concept of waters being in a territorial zone? Remember the British frigate or whatever it was being threatened - in fact fired at - in the Black Sea as it was in someone else's waters, just the other month? Or the cod wars going on between the UK, the Norwegians, the Dutch and the French?

In international waters there are few maritime laws, which is why the privae expeditions crews to the Estonia wreck have been careful to fly under the flag of a nation that is not signed up to the Estonia Treaty. For example, from Germany and the latest from the Netherlands. The Evertsson ship that brought about the recent treaty amendments sailed from Germany under a German flag. As a Swedish national, he was arrested and charged in Sweden but the case had to be dismissed as the spot was in international waters.

In international waters you can schlepp around and not worry about being challenged by anyone. You are indemnified from all sorts of things.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I trust you understand the concept of waters being in a territorial zone? Remember the British frigate or whatever it was being threatened - in fact fired at - in the Black Sea as it was in someone else's waters, just the other month? Or the cod wars going on between the UK, the Norwegians, the Dutch and the French?

In international waters there are few maritime laws, which is why the privae expeditions crews to the Estonia wreck have been careful to fly under the flag of a nation that is not signed up to the Estonia Treaty. For example, from Germany and the latest from the Netherlands. The Evertsson ship that brought about the recent treaty amendments sailed from Germany under a German flag. As a Swedish national, he was arrested and charged in Sweden but the case had to be dismissed as the spot was in international waters.

In international waters you can schlepp around and not worry about being challenged by anyone. You are indemnified from all sorts of things.

I think you will find that there are laws against sinking passenger ships in international waters.

Why would it make any difference where it was sunk?

Which British Frigate was fired at ?

 

[JesseCuster]

In international waters you can schlepp around and not worry about being challenged by anyone. You are indemnified from all sorts of things.

Are you indemnified from sinking a cruise ferry and killing 850 civilians?

 

[theprestige]

It's hard to imagine any scrap or portion of the Baltic Sea being *not* of surpassing strategic and economic interest to the nations bordering it. This isn't piracy on the high seas. This isn't mutiny in the vast expanse of the South Pacific. No sane person is going to put their finger on a map of the Baltic and say, "everybody cares about the other parts, but this region right here is pretty much ignored."

 

[theprestige]

Vixen: NATO ships hundreds of miles away should have jumped on this disaster immediately!

Also Vixen: In the middle of the Baltic, nobody much notices or cares what you get up to.